Worse still if like in older days the units were burnt down to get rid of virus,
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WOW WOW
Median house prices across New Zealand increased by 14.3% in February to a new record median price of $640,000, up from $560,000 in February 2019. This was the largest percentage increase in 53 months according to the latest data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ)
Maybe Julian was just kidding with his no growth story ...he’s a pretty switched into CEO
https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Defaul...ary%202020.pdf
... and volume increasing as well, this must be good :):
To be fair, though - it takes a bit of time for people to pick a house, negotiate the conditions and settle. I'd expect the Covid-19 dip to show up (at least in reduced volumes) in the coming months. But hey, it is unlikely to be anything else then a temporary dip, this virus his hardly changing the fundamentals.
Yes, unfortunately not much can be read into that because most sale and purchase contracts that settled in February would have been initiated before the virus became a major concern. I don't share your benign view however and expect at best a protected recession which will impact the real estate market going forward.
SUM's steadily rising debt level's over the years and steadily rising stockpile of unsold units and vast undeveloped land bank, (15 years at projected 2020 build rate) do not leave it very well positioned to weather a possible depression.
Spectacular fall from grace continues. Spectacular is probably an understatement. No growth Cook really did a "fantastic" job of torpeoding the share price. Now well under half of what it was less than one month ago !
I am not tempted despite the discount to NTA.
In my view we have seen a seismic transition in the nature of this company from a growth company, to one that is likely to have negative growth in a deep recession for the foreseeable future. Their rising debt levels and rapidly rising unsold stock level's which have been trending now for several years are an ominous warning for the future of SUM in a deep and protracted recession. Their insatiable appetite for building a massive land bank of about 13 years at the projected 2020 build rate now looks conceptually flawed.
I expect the share price to head down into a dark place at a significant discount to NTA. I am no longer interested at $4. A 20% discount to NTA is insufficient to entice me back in. I am thinking more like 40% (which is what MET were trading at late in 2019), which suggests $3. Even less if we see fairly widespread community transmission of Covid 19 within retirement villages...it doesn't matter which company owns the villages, it will severely taint the whole sector and we could see that impact demand for many years to come in a market that is already substantially oversupplied.
Dark days ahead for the entire industry in my opinion.
From the master of hyperbole ;) maybe but not certainly. Anywhere from here or lower is a life changing long hold, we'll look back one day and thank the gods of covid-19 for giving us such exceptional entry/re-entry prices, a few bucks either way will be immaterial.
DCB today or the bottom is in? I say DCB. Punters can't resist stocks that trade at multiples below NTA, whether or not it will be cheaper in a few months.
Am I reading this right, Fisher Funds brought 5.086% of SUM yesterday ?
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350195
Disclosure of beginning to have substantial holding
Section 276, Financial Markets Conduct Act 2013
To New Zealand Exchange
And
To Summerset Group Holdings Limited
Date this disclosure made: 18 March 2020
Date on which substantial holding began: 17 March 2020
Substantial product holder(s) giving disclosure
Full name(s): Fisher Funds Management Limited
Summary of substantial holding
Class of quoted voting products: Ordinary Shares
Summary for Fisher Funds Management Limited
For this disclosure,—
(a) total number held in class: 11,536,247
(b) total in class: 226,827,675
(c) total percentage held in class: 5.086%