Retailwatch shows October's NZ apparel sales down 9.1% on October last year, so Stat NZ credit card stats not a rogue result. While Black Friday has gotten bigger ever year I reckon more people that usual held off buying in October with the intention of buying during the November sales so really need to take Oct/Nov together rather than drawing too many conclusions from the sheer level of the spending decline. Even if there is a bounce back in November there will be consequences at the margin level
Over in OZ Universal Store gave a trading update yesterday. FY24 Same store / like for like sales are down 6.4% YTD, although the decline narrowed to -4.4% over the last 7 trading weeks.
Read CommBank IQ's Q3 retail report...tagline "Young customers are most impacted". Fascinating reading that lines up with what I'd been warning about with respect to the impact of rent, student debt, food, fuel costs on the youth customer in Australia.
Q3 Spend Per Capita by Age Group
18 to 24: -1%
25 to 29: -5.1%
30 to 34: -1.9%
35-39: -1.1%
40-44: 0.2%
44-49: 0.9%
50-54: 1.5%
55-59: 3.5%
60-64: 3.7%
65-69: 4.8%
70-74: 5.9%
75+ 8.1%
With CPI of 5.2% during the quarter only 70 years and above have actually increased consumption. Mid 20 year olds have reduced consumption by 10%.
Many regional drivers at play. Spending in Victoria the weakest followed by NSW. WA, NT, and Tas performing better.