Might be quite a while "falling knives " always difficult . Plus the chinese have just lower taxes on CHINESE Iron ORE ........
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purchased at $30.50, could not believe it could fall further. Under $30 must be a bargain long term. BHP must be the standout buy in the resource sector for the quality assets BHP owns.
Just when you thought it couldn't go any lower...
I'd stay well from pretty much everything commodity related right now until solid, long term buy signals are fired, like the 50MA 200MA cross.
Buying right now is like catching very sharp knives at terminal velocity...
BHP interests me but catching falling knives is not something I'm good at. I didn't think Chorus couldn't go any lower than $2 and it ended up at $1.28. Hmm, maybe this time it will be different and hey, Chorus worked out just fine in the end.
Also NZD is so strong against the AUS.
I have BHP on my watch list but I will be patient. Wait for it to break back through the moving average on the way up and I won't use a MA of less than 100 days even for a well diversified major resource stock.
The theory I'm working on with BHP is they have the grunt to buy other distressed mining interests at extreme discounts in due course. Best of breed also attracts the brightest and best geologists, engineers e.t.c.
I'm patient with this one notwithstanding the very favourable Kiwi Aussie fx rate and figure in terms of timing of purchase, its really reckless to try and fight what is a clear down-trend at present.
I'm an amateur compared to you two ;)
I think iron ore can go quite a bit lower yet. The spot price is almost a lagging indicator. The forward price is telling me it is heading to $64/5 at least & I wouldn't be surprised to see it at $50-55/ton. There is 150M tons of additional production coming on stream next year & then Roy Hill toward the end of 2015 -2016 with another 55M tons. Obviously there may be a few higher cost producers fall by the way side, however most of them are minor in comparison. I can't see the big 3 cutting production after spending $120Bln in capex expansions in the last 3 years. Their big hope is that China cuts production but there is no guarantee of that either. I'm short FMG for transparency purposes .
FYI Rio is more exposed to the iron ore price than BHP, with BHP being more diversified.
52 week low.