technical analysis?!! lol. That suggests you don't understand the meaning of valuation based on a residual earnings model, which is intrinsic to fundamental analysis.
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technical analysis?!! lol. That suggests you don't understand the meaning of valuation based on a residual earnings model, which is intrinsic to fundamental analysis.
Told you he was touchy :)
r
PT :D
[:0]
:D
[xx(]
Seems like you have nothing to add to a healthy discussion on a company's prospects and the underlying security valuation. You'd rather keep focussing on people and their intentions (as perceived by you). I stand by my valuation and when it touches $8 soon, I'm sure you'd remember all the "ramping".
And where is your disclosure in all these? Are you someone who was sitting on the fence thinking Ryman's SP would go down so that you can buy? Or did you sell too early and regretting it now? Maybe you never understood Ryman's business model and growth drivers and instead chose to waste time picking on other posters who dared to contribute.
I challenge you to prove my analysis is wrong. Are you good enough to do it?
$6.40 now...not bad for a stock on NZX which was only $5 pre-Xmas.
TheBoss, I have overcome a Tigers natural instinct of continuing to play with his prey.
Thank you for your analysis of this company over the last few pages, it is appreciated and I have little quarrel with it.
I regard Ryman as an excellent company with good forward prospects and it is the second biggest holding in my long-term portfolio, Mainfreight being the largest.
Now please relax and enjoy the forum
regards
Paper Tiger
Disc: I am being incredibly nice here.
Boss: Please take a chill pill. As PT has explained my position on RYM and the effect my comments have on the share price preclude me commenting. However, I have read your analysis and though a little optimistic I too see this as a long-term growth stock.
Nobody is attacking you, it is all a bit of fun. Try to relax. Go home and kick the cat.
Note to the gods of share price movement: O wise ones please accept that this comment, though on the RYM thread, is not a comment on RYM and is merely to smooth the ruffled feathers of the Boss, who is clearly not a ramper ;). And anyway, as we all know, the reasons prices go up and down have nothing to do with what we think or fundamentals of a company. They are a product of complex factors best explained via Chaos Theory.
If he does, no more Mr Nice Guy :(Quote:
quote:originally posted by Placebo
Go home and kick the cat
At the risk of driving down the share price ;) I make the following observation.
Forsyth Barr has revised its valuation upward, after reviewing its assumption on average unit sales per annum. As attached:
So not quite as bullish as The Boss, but bullish nonethelessQuote:
quote:Key Points
Ø We have increased our long-term assumption of annual New Sales from 200 units to 250 units.
Ø This change in assumption has a significant impact upon our RYM valuation as New Sales are a key driver of management fees and resales.
Ø Our revised valuation is $6.60 and in view of the valuation gap and robust nature of the RYM business model, we have maintained our BUY recommendation
:):)
My valuation also assumed new sales of 250 units, which is not overly optimistic, considering Ryman's record, market demands, land bank, pace of development, availability of funds, and most importantly in-house architects and construction engineers.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Placebo
Forsyth Barr has revised its valuation upward, after reviewing its assumption on average unit sales per annum. As attached:
So not quite as bullish as The Boss, but bullish nonethelessQuote:
quote:Key Points
Ø We have increased our long-term assumption of annual New Sales from 200 units to 250 units.
Ø This change in assumption has a significant impact upon our RYM valuation as New Sales are a key driver of management fees and resales.
Ø Our revised valuation is $6.60 and in view of the valuation gap and robust nature of the RYM business model, we have maintained our BUY recommendation
:):)
Forsyth Barr is projecting $6.60 over what horizon? My valuation of $8.30 was for a five-year projection, and on very realistic figures. My gut feel is it is a $10 company, but I dont have any numbers to back it up. Assuming a negative growth in NZ property sector, I expect a dip in the share price next year, when the properties are re-valued.
Up 5c today... is the jinx broken [^]
Boss: Forbarr's valuations apply to the here-and-now, I don't know of brokerages that say "we believe in 5 years time this stock will cost X dollars". Would be a brave call IMO.
The market seems to agree with the 660 figure
Hi Boss. I like your analysis, which is similar to what I did on MET when I bought in from $1.40 - $2.20. The reason I chose MET over RYM is that they provided more detailed historical information, which enabled me to model the likely amounts of amenities contribution and resales gains to be booked to profit each year. In addition, I thought their capital gains would be better, being centred more around the North Island and especially Auckland - historically better performers for capital gain. Of course, although a good performer, it hasn't actually performed as well as RYM. I think this has largely been the better pace of development at RYM, and, possibly better margins on development.
Like you, I have made my valuation based on the increase in shareholders equity rather than the reported profit, benefiting from the fact that analysts have been slow to make the switch from valuing based on bottom-line profit - a figure which really represents ancient history for these companies.
Very nice Lizard, you're spot on. I liked MET too and if I recall their RNOA was better than Ryman for most of 2003-5.
One of the less known secrets about Ryman is to choose undervalued sites and in some cases poorly managed sections, although situated strategically close to the city centres. They have stayed away from developing in remote areas, as the residents' children may not like to travel far to visit them with the grandkids.
As a matter of disclosure, I've now sold all of my Ryman's shares. This has been purely because of my cashflow problems and that I need the money to buy a property and also to invest in Indian firms, where I'm likely to get better returns in the medium-term. I realise I've sold too early when there is still a couple of bucks left, but a variety of circumstances forced me to sell them.
However, I'll follow this stock closely and contribute to this thread, as this is the first company for which I've done a comprehensive valuation and even if the SP reaches $8, I'd be happy with my efforts. Best of luck for those fortunate to be still holding and remember to send me the christmas card.
Disc: None held
Very nice Boss, and you'll be pleased to know that, once WAM winds up as it looks it will do, I will be happy to park at least part of my windfall in RYM.
good idea Placebo. $6.60 as a result of F.Barr's recommendation.