Thanks for that Balance. Well grow them in Central Otago, produce a premium NZ product and access labour from the islands ala kiwifruit/apple orcharding.
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When I tweak the $5.62 high growth scenario (now the base case) of $5.62 TIL will definitely have a target of $6 in my mind
I'm sure my $4.62 number not that long ago was met with some cynicism (price was in $2.70 range then) but i have faith in my modelling.
Will update my DCF stuff over the weekend to see what comes out. I really keen to see how much margins have expanded and build that in.
Its possible they might recognise the 25% income for the Trilogy Group since there is relevance, but I guess it comes down to their accounting policies. Don't think Briscoes adds Kathmandu revenues to their own given they own about 20% or else their numbers would really jump, they did however recognise dividends. Don't think theres much incentive to recognise it for Trilogy. If you look at a company like Rubicon they however do recognise it in the part ownership way, but thats mainly cause most of what they own is in part ownership.
There will be a supply agreement and thats what the part ownership is for and giving part payment in shares to a line the owners of Forestal Casino to have their interest in mind. No selling inside a two year period, so I think that is certainty of them being their for the long term.
Trilogy have been nothing short of clever in their dealings. They have so far wrapped up raw material side of things, the produce side and the distribution.
Haven't seen any comments from Roger or noodles on this thread recently, hope you guys are still on board?
So the dice have been cast no further bets until after market open by which stage the annual results will be known by all. One has to question the timing of the release today but I'm not complaining.
They have to release such information once they ink the deals. I am sure it is just coincidence.
Regardless of the news tomorrow (I am expecting it to be quite pleasant!), this appears to be a very well run company whose current shareprice will look like chump change in a few years if they keep doing what they have been doing. They have de-risked many parts of their business now, are being stocked in a growing number of stores and are growing hugely as a result. They also have a very good product, my wife swears by their products, as do other (more famous!) people who have also been making favourable comments.
I can't see any downside long term to holding onto them. It would take a considerable series of unfortunate events to turn their momentum at this stage, I feel.
Dynamic Results.