It would be a good reason NOT to invest in index ETF's then wouldn't it?
Better to invest in growth Co's
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Expected long term returns means nothing really, it all just guesses.
That's certainly what active managers are saying: "now is he time for stock pickers" etc.
The thing is from 2009 to about 2017 I beat the indexes by a couple of per cent per year (pure luck looking back on it) and then I made some pretty stupid bets in 2018 and 2019 which undid a lot of my good work. This is what always happens, eventually just about everyone underperforms the index over a long enough timeframe. Cue the fishing stories....
I have a good friend, financially illiterate, who has outperformed Buffett 12 years in a row now and just about every hedge fund on Wall Street (Except the ARKK, but give it time) with his high growth passive kiwisaver scheme that he has ignored since he's had it.
Portfolio of FPH / MFT / KFL / FNZ now NZG has consistently outperformed index for last 10 years . Maybe got lucky for having the mix right but consistency and quality works for me rather then looking for multi baggers ... Mature stocks with diversification of managed fund like KFL and balanced by low charges NZG covers full spectrum for me . Happy with NZ equities only as thats where consistent and less volatile returns are ....
No need do too much active management ...let time do the job not timing
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-v...-idUSKBN2BM26Y
Breakingviews - Chancellor: Value investing’s day is coming soon
Came across this comment - If I hadn’t read Graham’s "The Intelligent Investor" eight years ago, I would have been retired already.
Think he was saying ‘value investing’ hasn’t been good to him
Rally accelerates with Dow climbing 400 points to an all-time high, S&P 500 jumping 1.5%
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/04/stoc...lose-news.html
nasdaq correction looks finished
The trans tasman bubble opening up in a couple of weeks between NZ and AUS has most business people celebrating from the roof about this big occasion , but is it really that good?
will more NZ people leave NZ to holiday in AUS than AUS people come to NZ to holiday
if more people leave NZ to AUS then that's a negative economic benefit
if more people come from AUS to NZ then that's a positive economic benefit
domestic tourism etc will shrink as more people travel to AUS , negative
will as many people actually holiday as they think in there forecasts probably not due to fear of covid still.
net / net its probably a zero net out come really and throw in the risk of a limited lockdown or two in NZ due to probabilities the economic benefit to NZ may in fact be negative. A big outbreak/ lockdown would be a major negative of course.
Hence why the dollar and stock market were very muted in there response to the decision.