Neck to neck,stride by stride.
The finish maybe too close to call.
Have to wait for the photo.
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I've only been trading for a year but this is certainly my best performing stock. Bought in at $1.18 and it's been up ever since with little to no turbulence (unlike my AIR holding!). Thanks Percy and Roger for helping me ignore Snoopy's pessimism in this one :D Winner your faith in $1.60 by Christmas last year also helped!
Yeah I can't believe I had so much cash sitting in an account earning 3.5% p.a. when investing in HBL was a way more lucrative option.
I am probably going to regret this post, but today was the day I sold out of HBL.
At just after 2pm today my sell order was executed at $1.71.
In about 20 months, I had made a very good return, and have enjoyed being on the Heartland train during this period, but I believe, in the short term, there is now more chance of the share price going down, than what there is of it going up.
I also will likely (ie not 100% sure yet) require funds for another upcoming IPO ;), which, depending on the price, I believe will give a higher return than HBL, at least in the short term.
It is likely one day I will be back on the HBL train, and I will be watching with interest.
It is likely I may also consider SUM other investments as well.
Since posting this on 16 March 2017 the basket of 5 comparative banks I follow in Australia has increased by 3.8% and I therefore have lifted my valuation which h is based on my assessment of a fair PE relative to the Aussie banks by a commensurate amount $1.76 x 1.038 = $1.83. When it gets to $1.83 I'll reassess again.
The amazing run and rerating of Heartland continues
A rerating of ginormous proportions - I would hazard a guess we have never been seen such a rerating before of a finance stock on the NZX (or even the ASX or maybe even the whole world)
Price Book multiple is many analysts preferred multiple.
Since last June Heartland Book Value has increased by a miserly 4% odd but the share price has increased more than 40%. Heartland on a PB currently of about 1.6. What it looks like on a chart is below.
If Heartland was still trading on the same multiple as last June it's share price would be only 120 - thats 50 cents of rerating for you.
And if you run with Roger's number heaps more to go. Maybe he should put up the PB ratios of BOQ and BEN for starters (probably better to compare than against the big 4)
Just as Percy as said repeatedly for years and years Heartland is truly a world class bank. The market is finally beginning to redognise how good it really is.
Wow - exciting times - almost euphoric
I don't think its a book value story mate. Its EPS and EPS growth both historical and forecast that's driving the SP together with a brighter outlook for the N.Z. economy after the dairy recovery.
PB only tells part of the story. Net interest margin that HBL enjoys relative to its peers tells another compelling part of the story.
I am happy with my analysis and think relative to its peers $1.83 is good value, (I think their superior EPS growth both historical and projected is worth more than a PE premium of 1 but $1.83 is with just a PE premium of 1 so that's fairly conservative considering their strong relative growth progress and outlook).
For what its worth Price to Book Value off 4 traders is as follows, (I have not checked these back to their respective balance sheets to double check their workings)
BOQ 1.27
BEN 1.06
HBL 1.48
NAB 1.71
WBC 1.91
ANZ 1.54
Sector average 1.5.
Fair enough selling for TJ and if he's redirecting funds to SUM he'll do very well. Others of us have a fulsome allocation to SUM already and have cash sitting at call at a miserly 1.5% call account rate with ANZ securities....makes a 5% net yield or ~ 7% gross assuming full imputation credits and 8.5 cps in total this year + dividend growth in future years still look like a compelling case to hold.
You could say we are well positioned :)
Getting the popcorn ready, this should be fun.
- Put that through the winner-mincer and we get ... wait, wait, ... "overpriced, sell and take profits"
- Through the percy-mincer and we get ... waiting, ... "we are well positioned".
- Through the roger-mincer and ... waiting, ... "ignore the analysts, I'm right, it's going higher, and higher".
Just for a sanity check:
- Through the Joshua mincer and ... hmmm ... sorry, can't repeat that here, something about "sell into the ramp", whatever that means.
:)
Just having a bit of fun.