http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...448/318192.pdf
ARV ahead of the game - Great stuff all round!
ORA sales volume up 18%, and revenues up 56%... unlike sum others, no slow down here.
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http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...448/318192.pdf
ARV ahead of the game - Great stuff all round!
ORA sales volume up 18%, and revenues up 56%... unlike sum others, no slow down here.
Nice & helped boost the SP 5.5% (making it my 3rd best performing share today, it is a crazy world these days).
To clarify on any misunderstanding ARV is still one of my top 5 'conviction' holdings.
I only sold enough to pay for 3 months gadding round Europe.
I was puzzled around this time yesterday when ARV traded at $1.50... despite my XL position it was almost too cheap not to buy more... probably should have taken a leap of faith as share price now over 11% higher, in just 1 trading day... maybe everyone ignore the recent (positive) announcement yesterday, then re-read it today.
I then thought it would be interesting to see where the returns of the retirement sector year to date:
SUM - down 19.2%
ARV - down 11.3%
RYM - down 13.6%
OCA - down 21.0%
Not going to look at MET as really this is just being supported by a takeover offer (which, in my view, now has a very real chance of it not going ahead in which case I’d think we’d see the share price collapse down into the $4’s)
Intriguing really.
Wondered today if some other company in this sector might be less risky in the forthcoming deep recessiuon / depression so I did some digging.
Interest bearing debt / equity as at interim report date 30/09/2019 jumped quite substantially to 37.5% up from 28% in the previous corresponding period. That's even worse than SUM ! Hope their sales keep trucking along all right. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...511/312056.pdf
I must be reading/comparing the wrong things but slide 21 of the investor preso at half year breaks down the debt quite nicely I find... Gearing (ND / ND + E) is sitting at 27%, up only slightly on where it was 6 months ago (where it was 25%)
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...511/312057.pdf
Seems to be quite a big difference from your numbers vs the basis they (and sum others) like to report on? (on what I think was the same measure, SUM was sitting at 33% - a good chunk above 27%... interestingly, SUM has nearly $300m more in Net Debt than ARV... thats well over 2x more than ARV has, yet SUM doesn't have a 2x higher market cap than ARV)
It would seem Mr Market (so far) thinks ARV would be the best of the sector, with its share price falling the least.
Yeah, my bad...its been a very busy day. Doesn't look to bad the whole ARV thing...but I think the whole market is going to get bashed with an ugly recession at best, or a depression. Sitting on tons of dry powder and I am keeping paws well away from the buy button of any stock.
This whole sector stands to be really beaten up when the MET takeover doesn't happen.
The market giveth and the market taketh away. Agree with your prognosis on MET but as mentioned earlier, the contagion effect on the rest of the sector could be quite substantial. Gee, if they can't sell MET for NTA then you could make the case no other company is really worth any more than NTA either !
More should be known by late March on the MET situation,. strap yourself in if the deal is cancelled for any reason ! http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...228/316456.pdf
Today's announcement......spot the typo......
ARV
15/05/2020 10:38
GENERAL
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1038 HRS Arvida Group Limited
GENERAL: ARV: Notice of Annual Result Announcement Date
Arvida Group Limited's full year results for the financial year ended 31
March 2020 will be released to the NZX on 26 March 2020.
I have commented before on ARV errors that slip through. But despite these very minor things and having just bought a high end village in Queenstown at the property peak , the share price has been outstanding when compared to the others.
Excellent results really, NTA up, underlying profit up, Dividend still on the way, solid dividends and outlook ahead.
Can't ask for much more during these times.
this is the real story going forward not the out dated good results before covid
Financial outcomes of Covid-19 will impact FY2021. The key impacts in FY2020 were in relation to ORA sales where a number of settlements were either deferred or cancelled.
“For Arvida, the effects of the containment measures required and the disruption to sales and construction activities, may have a negative impact on the Group’s FY2021 operational costs, sales volumes, sales margins and earnings,” Mr Wilson said.
“The decline in earnings is also expected to lead to a decrease in free cash flow in FY2021 compared to the previous year. The Group is in a strong financial position and is positioned well for the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.”