At this rate it will be at the same value by Christmas next year in Share Price
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Mid point of guidance is $97m which on 228.785m shares = 42.4 cps underlying earnings. $12.04 / 42.4 cps = a PE on current year earnings of 28.4.
To be fair their financial year is almost over, (31/12/20) so investors will be thinking about their earnings growth prospects for next year and beyound and I think its now fair to say their major land bank is an advantage going forward. Whether one has upmost confidence they can execute effectively with consenting and development at decent margins is another thing to consider. My read on the tea leaves of the FY20 forecast result is Q4 sales have not been as strong as one might imagine they might have been reading the press reports about how the market has been going gangbusters. I suspect they still have a pretty serious issue with some slow moving stock they're still struggling to sell.
Sector overall has under performed NZX50 over last 52 weeks - OCA average and ARV and RYM underperforming a lot - but SUM best of breed by a long way - up 43% last 52 weeks v NZX50 up 12%
From NZX today last 52 weeks movement
NZX50 up 12%
ARV down 5%
OCA up 15%
RYM down 6%
SUM up 43%
We are all aware property is a ladder so needs someone to enter the first step and things may have reached their limits even with low interest rates. That bottom rung on the ladder for some already starting to look daunting.
"A new survey of mortgage advisers shows "solid evidence of things cooling off" in the housing market, with the impact of LVR changes and pressure on landlords ramping up."
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...oling-off.html
All looking good for another boomer of a year for Summerset
Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens said house price inflation had a way to run yet and he's picking big growth this year.
"We are forecasting a peak of 16 per cent annual house price inflation in June 2021, and a full-year increase over 2021 of 12.2 per cent," he said.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OJHJ5X5VD5JAA/
But that's the point, don't you see?
This bloke Dominick doesn't have any better clue than I do about what's going to happen in 2021.
And given that after lockdown in 2020 he predicted property prices would drop by 15%, when actually they rose by 15%, his credibility is zero, or even negative.
In fact, I don't know how he still has a job. If he worked for me as a forecaster, I'd sack him.