Where to next? $1.50 or $2?
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Where to next? $1.50 or $2?
Sicklical stocks often behave very orderly.
Bear in mind the bottom of the last 2 cycles have been sub $1. The way true sicklicals behave this is again possible
Sicklicals can cycle upwards so maybe not quite this bad this time --- but sub $1.50 is on the cards
Sicklicals (esp airlines) defy logic sometimes
Promise not to repost that chart that haunts/fascinates me ....and would be starting to haunt some of you
I'm investing for the long run Skid, 5 years + Management are confident that the company can pay a sustainable dividend of 20 cps per annum. Management in my view are credible, they have been credible in the last few years with their forecasts. Where the SP goes over the long run in my view is a separate matter from any consideration of whether they can or can't pay 20 cps per annum. The consensus view of 6 professional analysts is the stock is worth $2.20 and the consensus view of those analysts is the company can afford to pay 20 cps for the foreseeable future.
The capex holiday after FY19 reinforces my belief that this is a good long term dividend payer. I get it that many people are disappointed that the SP came down in line with the dividend paid this time.
Dividend stripping usually works, I have never once said it always works. The market is clearly disappointed to see executives continuing to treat their incentive shares as an ATM machine.
I'll leave it at that.
I think it needs another capitulation day, there was one on the last leg down pre dividend which got it to around the $2.02 area from memory. Another 2-3% drop in a day and the sharks may not be able to contain themselves.
As I have said before, paying out big special div was the problem with sp crash. They should of paid out half or a third at Christmas and the rest later on about 3 months after normal div. to give a bit of incentive and something to look forward to, and the sp would probably be still at $2.10 to $2.20. But on the other hand, good for topping up at these lower prices. Bought 3 lots today at 1.79, 1.74 and 1.715;).
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com...abce5c91c1.jpg
this is too scary to watch
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger