http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11729283
Race To the bottom it seems
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http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11729283
Race To the bottom it seems
Good summary of a business cycle bottom. In terms of the SP, assuming the double bottoms Apr 2009 and Jun 2012 are a market cycle indicator, it's already ~62% of the way there. Might be time for a bounce off that fibonacci number eh, back test 50% and the May/June lows at 2.02?
Our man Christopher on his annual crusade preaching business sustainability
Talked a lot of other CEOs into getting their business to use more EV - all 1500 odd by 2019
Good on him - sustainable businesses are what we need - even if profits are impacted.
Must be hard to do these crusades at the same time that airlines are increasing emissions at a great rate these days
Never mind - keep at it Christopher, as long as Air makes a decent profit it will be OK
Obviously buying at the very bottom of the cycle would be ideal but hey most of us have to live in the real world so live with where we bought in at plus a bit of averaging down if we are so inclined. I'm middle of the road at a $2.29 average and a price which could be reached again within 6 months IMO, but regardless I'm happy to have 50% of our retirement funds invested in Air long term. As far as rentals go, not interested for reasons Roger has already pointed out in his last post plus Vaygors additions as well (Mind you I wouldn't like to have to reduce my holding currently for any reason obviously)
Good point Baa Baa.
Yes thanks Hoop for the salient reminder. I believe a lot of the negativity is built around an assumption we're going to have another GFC, (assuming we ever recovered properly from the first one, a decent debate all of itself), and people are quick to point to the cyclical low at the bottom of the last GFC. If we're comparing apples with pears, some people might like to consider how low for example high quality stocks like Ryman got at the bottom of the GFC, I remember them at $1.60, I am sure Vaygor1 with his in-depth knowledge of Ryman would probably remember them lower.
I personally don't think it's especially wise to assume we're going to have a GFC Mk2, granted its a possibility and theoretically possible that AIR's SP could halve from here but so would a lot of other stocks if that eventuated.
If we stick with official average forecasts of the 6 brokers following AIR we don't see any precipitous drop in earnings from FY17 and as Couta1 has noted their average forecast dividend is ~ 20 cps fully imputed for the foreseeable future and that's how company management see it too. The well foreshadowed capex holiday they have after FY19 underwrites their ability to pay at this dividend level well into the next decade assuming we don't have another GFC. Many people would qrgue with quite some merit in my view that the GFC was the most severe financial event since the great depression of 1929.
Food for thought, could the next cyclical low be quite significantly less severe than the last one ?
Further food for thought, is your capital at any more risk in AIR considering its SP has already been beaten up badly than stocks trading on lofty forward PE's ?
Couldn't agree more mate. Then there's the fantastic liquidity of stocks. We've been trying to quit a couple of low quality sections for over a year now, others we've held have performed extremely well but ones with more difficult build profile are much harder. You don't get that problem with shares do you although anyone with a large position in IQE, PPL or...(insert your favourite penny dreadful) might disagree !
Based on e.mail discussions I know you haven't deducted your 35 cent dividend from that so looked at another way your net average is ($2.29 - $0.35) = $1.94. Not so bad mate when you look at it like that. Why not make yourself feel a bit better and look at it the net of dividend way. Quite aside from that its what they can pay us for the next 10 years + that counts mate and is going to make our lives easier.
Yep is doing the texted book PR, talking three years out which is where the analysts and market should be using as the valuation basis however they are not.
Auckland property of any quality, if you purchased early in the cycle, i.e even 2012, which I did with my ChCH EQ money, was the most easy money I have ever made and liquid as to resell.
One asset is a a different point in its cycle to the other so why compare.
Annualised table of returns for 1,2,3,4,5,10 & 15 investment periods to the first trading day on or after 14-Oct in Year YYYY. Prices adjusted for splits and dividends.
Orange: <5% return
Green: >15% return
Blue: otherwise
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y26...20161016-1.png
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger