When the Gorilla enters the room (forget the Tigers and Beagles)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
see weed
Can any of the TA people out there tell me at what price AIR must reach for it to trigger a buy now?, If we say the low has been established now at $1.715c. Have noticed sp has gained 12c in the last 6 trading days. I am happy with 1c average gain every day, but if it wants to gain 2c every day, that's ok to. So to be on the safe side, If the TA buy kicks in at say $2.10c? and all the TA buyers start buying, then I am expecting to make a 30c to 40c gain including a 10c div by early next year? Correct me if I'm wrong.
From a TA perspective..AIR reversed into a Bear cycle at the beginning of May 2016 and since then there's been no signs of it ending..The great giveaway to shareholders (8th September) created a negative capital asset hit on the Company which has accentuated the current bear cycle..
Best Investment Strategy for Long Term Investors
When ones portfolio stock (such as AIR) doesn't meet the criteria of steady upward trend of earnings with constant good margins during all economic periods including boom and bust (Buffett criteria)...the following options should be used.
When a non-criteria stock enters into a bear cycle investors should:...
either
swap strategies, going from Sailing (passive..buy & hold.. Bull Market Strategies).. to.. Rowing (active...using Bear Market investing strategies)
or
cash up and wait until the stock reverses back into a bull cycle..
Rowing means being active therefore watching for entries at the beginning of each sucker rally and prepare to exit near a major resistance when those rallies fail to break through...Resistances can be a wide range of things from TA indicators to trading behaviours..so some rowing traders may not be using TA but other methods to determine their entries and exits...some successful rowers have great "gut feel" abilities.
In some ways AIR is a victim to the above strategies..the share price falls as there is less "available" money thereby making the stock weak and so rallies peter out due to lack of buying demand..and the major group investor bear mindset (the Gorilla) takes over and governs the trading behaviour of the stock irrespective of the current FA conditions..
Bear Market conditions frustrate the minority, the "believers" (who may be right), but their efforts to portray their message fails to persuade the majority group (who maybe wrong).. This is equivalent to "farting against thunder" therefore to be successful one recognises who's the boss is when there is a Gorilla in the room and devise a survival strategy..In the case of Share Investing if you opt not to leave the room the best survival (Capital) strategy against the Gorilla is the "rowing" strategy, irrespective of what beliefs you may hold.
Where is AIR share price at?..
The Bollinger bands are tightening suggesting a change of trend or change in tempo...As the share price hasn't got much of a trend it's any ones guess which way the share price is going to go...If it goes up there's resistances at $2 and a $2.20 - $2.35 zone .....Be mindful that any rally is most likely be a sucker rally searching a top around those prices.. If it goes down there's minor support at $1.65....
AIR is a very risky stock when playing with the bear...Due to it's higher Beta I would expect the experienced player (too large an ego to stay away) to suffer a few claw marks..
Any one who disputes AIR being a Bear hasn't been reading the posts (frustration) on this thread
Give me an H, Give me a couple of O's, Give me a P...
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hoop
From a TA perspective..AIR reversed into a Bear cycle at the beginning of May 2016 and since then there's been no signs of it ending..The great giveaway to shareholders (8th September) created a negative capital asset hit on the Company which has accentuated the current bear cycle...
...Any one who disputes AIR being a Bear hasn't been reading the posts (frustration) on this thread
As I apparently need to spread some reputation around before I am allowed to quietly praise you I am going to do so very publicly and encourage everyone who can to hit the reputation icon.
Great post Hoop!
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger