So who went and put the ST clock back instead of forward:)
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So who went and put the ST clock back instead of forward:)
http://www.odt.co.nz/news/business/3...-forecast-2016
ODT gives the Edison report an airing
Yes that's not going to set the SP on fire, especially with the references to downside risk and distant timelines. And part of the problem with the Edison report is it came out too early to take in the melanoma and colorectal announcements and give adequate emphasis to the multi-faceted portfolio PEB is building up, which is impossible to put a value on at this stage anyway. I'm happy sitting on my holding.
I noticed with Edison they gave the price a 2% increase each year...a lazy way of saying, allowing for 2% inflation per year..
When using forward thinking or predicting the future you have to use exponential thinking not linear thinking to be more accurate in ones predictions....
There is an Industrial Revolution in progress...It upsets the old systems, old businesses stick up barriers but its futile...
We have seen Moores Law+ in operation with electronics which has seen the old communication systems perish..
We are starting to see this revolution entering in to the Medical system now..once a system develops a digital code it becomes a revolution with the old established system and the new innovative sytems grabbing to take their place..The Gene Mapping is digital.
New innovative systems emerge which are more efficient at a less cost, they are faster and churn out more products/time....As the revolution progresses it does so at an exponental plus rate (normal is exponental rate) with sudden life changing innovations...e.g email killing off NZ Post .what does NZP do? puts up the price of postage..an act of suicide?.
The film industry force legal laws to help them stop the flow of data or imaging data through the net..is a barrier and an act of denial..so what do they do..put up the price to see all forms of movies...
Also the price of Data is declining at an exponential rate.. the speed of data is increasing at an exponential rate...the processing speed of that data is increasing at an exponential rate
Klid..putting up the price of tests ? ...Hmmm ...Remember your history of what has happened during the last two industrial revolutions...No? well you are not alone as most company operators didn't learn their history at school neither. That sudden advancement of modernisation creates cheaper ways of producing things using less labour caused a decade of economic distress within Countries due to the displacement of Jobs and persistant deflation...
With the onslaught of the Industrial Revolution into the Biotech industry if I was Edison team using forward projection I would be lowering the price/test each year not increasing it.
Patents won't save PEB from innovative competitors..being quick footed will.. An innovator (within an IR effected delationary Sector) being up to the moment or ahead of the game will get the rewards the rest won't e.g Google, Samsung, Apple...Us shareholders have seen how quick PEB is..sadly it's performance to date reminds you of a snail
Good post Hoop thanks. I agree re price. This will be determined by clinical utility, and poking it up as a result of inflation won't happen.
However, the Health system suits snails, and PE will find comfort in barriers to entry once it crosses the line. There seems to be no good reason why it should not, albeit slowly..
Having read the much anticipated report I have learnt nothing I did not already know. It contains a number of [minor & unimportant] errors and really just highlights that there is a very high degree of uncertainty over where PEB will be in a few years.
On the subject of the price of the tests it is possible that they will not even achieve the $550 with large volume customers.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger