NZX50 down 0.8% as I post this. Not a biggie, but if you watch the wrong stocks it might add up :);
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Sorry Beagle but your really not doing your homework on this stock to make a comment like your opening line, I suggest you spend a day over at Hotcopper and read the posts by the knowledgeable long term holders on all the different threads and you will then become better informed, anyway I'll leave things for now as I've said enough and I ain't selling.
Been too busy today mate. Chart looks horrendous. Good luck.
To me it (the chart) looks like it might be coming to the end of a 3 month downswing, because the last wave is losing momentum and could be an ending diagonal.
IF SO ( a fairly big if) then we could see another short down turn (such as today) being some sort of exhaustion point, maybe a gap, followed by a sharp recovery.
Maybe?
My gutometer says that this isn't the bottom, but I believe it'll be fine as a long term hold. It's a good company, with plenty itd growth ahead. Sure the fruit isn't low hanging anymore, but there's still plenty.
I think a test of the baseline support level of around $NZ10 is quite plausible. It just keeps getting tougher for ATM and the consensus average FY20 PE with average estimated eps of 44 cps at $12.30 is 28. That's too high for a company with very rapidly slowing eps growth and the clear need to invest vast amounts on marketing on an ongoing basis to differentiate their product from the ever increasing range of others. A forward PE in the early 20's looks more appropriate to me for the much slower eps growth and higher risks. 23 x 44 cps gives ~ $N.Z10. https://www.marketscreener.com/A2-MI...22/financials/
I think anyone thinking ATM can wind back their spend on marketing in future years is taking a far too sanguine view of how future competition will develop and thus I expect margins to remain under pressure in the years ahead. Current average analyst expectation is for a slight increase in gross margin in FY21 and FY22
I think the opposite is more likely and we'll see ATM having to further significantly increase their marketing spend in the years ahead.
Sometime in the next decade I expect ATM will be viewed as just another milk commodity company as the ever wider proliferation of competitor A2 products companies vastly expands. We could then see ATM trade on a multiple in the mid to late teens like Danone.
Haha another Danone which is currently trading at around $127NZ equivalent, I'd be happy with that. PS-In time very possible.
Not really looking for it but saw a couple of A2 1 kg skim milk bags for sale at a medicinal store (Yu Yuen Tong Medicines Company) here in Kowloon for HK$95. The bags got best before dates of 29 Nov '19.
FYI only.