Baa Baa The thrust of your post is to suggest risk is everywhere and anything can happen and you allude to the fact that HBL is a two bit finance company dressed up as a bank.
I agree with the first assertion which is why I take an active approach to risk mitigation and am prepared to sit out (permanently or for years) from holding a stock in times of high risk, (sat out the dairy crisis for over 2 years on this stock for example).
I disagree strongly with the two bit finance company comment. Their capital ratio to the best of my knowledge is superior to all the Australian banks and I think you'll find that those grannies and orphans who continue to predominantly invest in term deposits are taking FAR more risk than they realise with the RBNZ's powers under the open banking resolution. They could easily get a haircut of 30-40% or even more in the event of a major exogenous shock to the banking system.
You infer that the Australian banks would be much stronger in a tremendous shock situation. I suggest you consider the state of the Australian and New Zealand housing markets and mining companies in Australia and look at the capital ratio of those banks. Just as much risk there as in any other bank in my opinion and on a skinnier capital base.
As Percy quite correctly alluded too yesterday, the N.Z. imputation system and no meaningful imputation credits on Australian banks makes HBL a compelling investment in this sector for Kiwi's as does its superior earnings growth rate.
P.S. Some posters post in real time what they're doing some of the time, for example I posted the other day I was BBB (Beagle busy buying) HBL in real time while I was doing it.