Positive Surprises Emerging
IMF: Reserve Bank’s money printing improved the Government’s books - a little https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...EJPAWMSTTJJJQ/
"Don't fret! Inflation is going away," says Orr.
Aiming for Surplus will beget a stronger NZD
Quote:
Originally Posted by
stoploss
Ok currently .5907 , I think it goes lower yet , wait till we see the Govt books ahead of the election .
$4 billion of budget cuts... would be banked to offset deficits... to keep debt under 30% of gross domestic product and return the Crown accounts to surplus... This money would not be available to be reallocated into new initiatives. https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/123988/finance-minister-grant-robertson-said-money-saved-would-help-offset-growing
I'll be buying again long before 0.565.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Daytr
Yeah I think it might head towards 0.5650 so will keep an eye on it for a re-entry level.
The current balance of payments means there is a constant sale of NZD every month.
The US will peak at some point, probably relatively soon. The US also seems to be ahead of NZ in the fight against inflation so the FED may pivot before NZ.
By strengthening the USD, higher US interest rates stimulate other economies’ exports. This makes the kind of global recession that so many predicted even less likely.
If you take away the reason for "flight to safety = USD", and NZ exports are becoming more competitive due to currently weaker NZD, you have a surprise building for NZD shorters.