http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/04.28.04.gif
Printable View
Pip profit ticking along nicely on this one now,
and more to go IMO. Pink line is trailing stop.
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/051204b.gif
Follwing through as per plan.
June 8th could have significance
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...s/06072004.gif
I like it when a plan comes together :)
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/06142004.gif
Hi Xerof
You mentioned CAD on the Aus thread.
I have swing reversal levels of 2639 to 2695.
Looking like a possible shorting opportunity IMO.
Any thoughts - fundamental or otherwise ??
arco
Hi Arco,
I don't really follow the loonie bird - kiwi is difficult enough for me, but your levels, if expressed on a direct basis, 0.7912 to .7877 correspond with turn levels mentioned in the link I referred to on AUD thread.
I hadn't seen this thread before - you have had some success with the Loonie too Arco - well done, and it followed TA to perfection !
Hmmm, maybe just one more chocolate, Mr Creosote...
regards
Xerof
Perhaps a wafer thin mint then, if you insist :D
MP
Hehe Arco, see what happens if you overtrade:D:D
http://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictur...e/vi-vomit.jpghttp://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictur...e/vi-wafer.jpg
http://www.intriguing.com/mp/_pictur...e/vi-explo.jpg
Xerof
Now thats what I call a very sick joke [:p]
:D:D
Hello Arco,
see any potential butterflies here or is it crawling with caterpillars? Nice trendlines/no indicators!
http://www.stormyforex.com/showimg.aspx?imgid=15
I've stuck in a lazy bid for small at 1.2375 with razor tight stop below 1.2350 (having stated elsewhere that I don't trade the Loonie[:p][:p])
regards
Xerof
that link doesnt work properly
it links, but not to a picture.....
Peat, OK just go to http://www.stormyforex.com/index.aspx
and have a look at USD/CAD in his free daily analysis section
Also has a EUR/USD chart there, which is suggesting the same area as I did this morning as a sell - somewhere round 1.2880/1.2900
cheers
Xerof
looking very much like your bid will get filled....
stormy forex [8D]
they aint kiddin.
you're not alone zerof
Dallas GEP 10:34 GMT May 9, 2005
LONG CAD now at 1.2376
but my platform news suggests CAD momentum is strong
"The break of Friday's Usd/Cad low of 1.2387, and continued weakness under the 200 day m.a, imply a likely mid term shift to the downside. "
hammered at 75 - pay on - given - still pay - given - 75 offered - PAID... by a small player out of NZ
He he
we'll see what happens...will be showered in something - either glory or ****e
Xerof
Good Evening Xerof
The Loonie is actually still playing out a previous Bullish Gartley,
and there also appears to be a possible bearish Butterfly waiting
in the wings ;)
If I am correct the EW count seems to require a further move
north to complete a 5 wave - (and the final leg of the wing).
arco
Thanks Arco - hopefully I shall be there to assist with clipping its RHS winglet
Nice evening to all -over and out
Xerof
For you Xerof (from the global view forum).
NB Gold Coast Martin is a very highly respected poster/fund manager
gold coast martin 22:34 GMT May 9, 2005
Dallas GEP 22:31 GMT May 9, 2005
Yeap Dallas.....they should start in spurts to hit the market before ny starts today....hence my 12510-19 scenario for this week....g.t
Dallas GEP 22:31 GMT May 9, 2005
Martin, are those usd/cad LONG yard orders still there waiting execution as was your post yesterday
Thanks Peat, I occasionally have a look at GV, but find it littered with scalpers commentary. However, as you point out, there are one or two contributors who can add insight.
Clearly no buying spurt last night, so still await the imminent strong rally in USD/CAD:D:D
Xerof
lol@scalpers yeh
theres a guy there who has SL's of like 7 pips , calls himself a ninja trader.... tells us when he makes 3 pips.
On this basis I have entered at 2373.Quote:
quote: 9/5 If I am correct the EW count seems to require a further move north to complete a 5 wave - (and the final leg of the wing).
Loonie has been upto +40 but currently + 28
Tight trailing stop.
arco
Excellent Arco, we're riding this one together
XerofQuote:
quote:9/5 - I've stuck in a lazy bid for small at 1.2375 with razor tight stop below 1.2350
Arco, a nice little canter last night;);)
Xerof
Yes, I also pyramided at 2416.
So currently +104 / +61
I like it whan a plan comes together.
arco
i was following that trade in spirit
alas not in $
well done guys
The BanglesQuote:
quote:All the kids in the marketplace
say:Way-oh-way-oh-way-ooo-aaa-ooo...
Walk like an Egyptian.
:D:D
Wrong currency? :D
All the Japanese with their yen
The party boys call the Kremlin
And the Chinese know (oh whey oh)
They walk the line like Egyptian
- Bangles
touche:D:D
showing our age now arn't we[8D]
Used to play that in a band years ago[:I]
You're only as old as you act - I'm currently 23
[^][^]
no no xerof
its "you're as young as the woman u feel"
bugger, that makes me (circa)50 then [xx(][xx(]
I prefer my original stance on this matter - anyone got a spare 23 year old?
Only if you want to take half of mine[:0]
Arco, bit of a roadblock here at 1.2520ish for the moment it seems
Is that level of any importance TA'wise?
Xerof
Currently trying to break an Ascending triangle.
Could be the 618 fib area causing a bit of resistance.
Once broken should continuing north IMO.
Safety precaution - maintain a watch for a positive break of
an 30 min 50 period SMA. This has been supporting well so far.
Just closed USD/CAD long at 1.26585 for 282.5 pips. Will look to rebuy at 1.2605, if I can raise the enthusiasm to continue trading the Loonie. Prefer others
Xerof
Immense pressure to conquer at 2695.
It looks like one small Butterfly may have
completed (forming Leg EW5), so we could see
some form of reversal here. A very large Gartley
appears to be also on its last legs.
Not too sure whether to keep my shorts on,
or remove them and see what happen ;)
arco
Ahem, keep them on poleeease;);)
but not too sure about your usd/cad position - buy/reverse at 1.2600 for 1.2750/1.2800?
Xerof
Ok Xerof, I kept my shorts on ;),
and very pleased I did too.
The previous days bearish Dark Cloud Cover candle,
a Tweezer Top, and a number of other factors pointed
to a low risk entry.
Wing your way south if you please.
http://www.crystalinks.com/movbutterfly.gif
arco
arco
I get an initial target of around 1.2500
fit with anything you have?
Cheers
Slam
AAAh, wonderful....position, attire and graphics:D:D
exit short at 1.2570 for +65
It helps defray the cost of my recent "Pounding" [B)]
Slam
There are a number of possibilities IMO.
Next Gann level is circa 2451.
Short 2695 + 125
arco
arco
Will have a look at my charts again
Thanks for the reply
Cheers
Slam
Still moving in the right direction +118
Minor Gann support around here to be
broken @ 2573
arco
FWIW
Just received this info from a broker
JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR - The Canada dollar bounced off the center line and traded higher as it approached Tuesday's reversal date. I look for the market to hit resistance and trade lower into the EOC (End of Cycle) reversal date due on May 27. A drop into this date could set up a significant buying opportunity.
I closed my USD/CAD short at 26.40 for +40 late last night.....
Only to wake up this morning to find it fell off the cliff for another 100+ a few hours later Arrrrg!
Me thinks it's time for me to learn more about resistance/support levels.
Its those Butterflies again :D
Short 2695 now +153Quote:
quote:It looks like one small Butterfly may have
completed (forming Leg EW5), so we could see
some form of reversal here. A very large Gartley
appears to be also on its last legs.
The action has come up against the uptrend line and
is deciding where it should go next. Watching red
paint dry at the moment.
Still short +166
arco
Interesting cross currents here - CAD has gone against recent trends elsewhere - just been informed there's been a huge sell order going on for the past few days in EUR/CAD, and apparently still there today
So there you go - yet another non-USD pairing in the mix, along with EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP..no wonder EUR/USD got hammered
Xerof
Still short....... +241 at close
Expecting some support could come in
around a Gann level at 1.2451 (mentioned 20/5)
O/n low was 2448 - thats pretty close.
Now, if you fancy a read over coffee...........
Wed Jun 1 11:51:00 2005(EST)
* 01 Jun 05: 16:50(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD has confounded the market once again, more to come
CAD has caught the market on the hop. While the fundamental picture for the Canadian economy is not overwhelming, there is still a strong probability that the BoC will be raising rates as early as this summer. In this regard, especially in the context of today's price action, Thu's speech by BoC Governor Dodge on 'Monetary Policy & the Exchange Rate' will be scrutinized closely. Factors that have combined with the fundamentally positive CAD story in the short term are dominated by the broad based purge of EUR positions in the wake of the French referendum and the ongoing reports of soft data out of Europe. CAD is getting more attractive by the minute, especially after the sour news from the US ISM report today. Besides the fundamentals, M&A activity has been highlighted. China's Minmetals announced on Tue it was still interested in Noranda. Later on Tue, TIW reported the completion of a sale of one of its assets to Vodafone for an estimated USD3.5 bln, proceeds of which will be distributed to shareholders 'pursuant to a court-supervised Plan of Arrangement'. CAD may give back a bit of today's gains, but that will be seen as a buying opportunity by those that feel left behind...again.
* 01 Jun 05: 15:03(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flows - Asymetric reaction to ISM.
It's been that sort of market! The manufacturing ISM number at 51.4 was certainly lower than the market expectation of 52.3, from the April number at 53.3. However, the reaction could have been expected to be skewed slightly, with a bigger number likely to have seen a bigger market reaction. If EUR/USD does struggle back to 1.2300, then expect more selling. For the rest of it - the big data-point approaches with Friday's non-farm payroll. C.F.
* 01 Jun 05: 14:53(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - EUR/CAD sellers forced to late 2003 levels
CAD has confounded the market. USD/CAD was set to range trade, leaving EUR/CAD to extend its tendency to move to new lows. The price action that followed the latest purge of EUR longs may have started with a US money center bank pushing EUR/JPY through 133.00 to intraday lows of 132.70-75. But, once EUR/CAD sellers found bids hard to find, prices spiralled lower, catching the market off guard. Today's intraday low of 1.5268 has not been seen since Nov 2003 and the lows have not been seen yet. EUR/CAD support is difficult to uncover, but 1.5014 and then 1.4890 are two levels that cannot be ignored. CAD price action may have been sparked by the unlikely purge of EUR/JPY, but once it took hold, EUR/CAD was dictating direction for USD/CAD, where today's intraday low of 1.2470 is still in the middle of May's trading range. US ISM data will be the market's next test.
* 01 Jun 05: 13:34(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD shodowing USD, watch for US data to lead the way
CAD has attached itself to the USD and refuses to move significantly in either direction in USD/CAD terms. Attaching itself to USD has help to extend the trend toward lower prices in EUR/CAD and there is little to suggest the trend is close to a bottom. US data will set the tone for both currencies with today's ISM report next. Technically, look for USD/CAD to range trade with support seen at 1.2525 and resistance up at 1.2590. EUR/CAD will be shadowing EUR/USD, with momentum likely to stall for a while before picking up again to explore new lows.
Remaining short.... +255 at close.
Trailing a tight stop now.
A couple of Butterfly target zones
loom ahead circa 2150=2300 with possible
Gann support levels in the same area
at 2329 Minor/2207 Major.
Short from 2695 - Currently + 344
Still heading into the target zones
and towards the Gan support levels.
Short from 2695 - Currently +406 at Fri close
Still creeping down slowly.......
CAD appears to be out of the Bear Flag which
looks like good news but Mrs Gann at 2207 is
holding up progress.
Short from 2695 - Currently +411 at Wed close.
Arco, you should find this site of interest. Types as he talks I guess, but look down the page for his VERY BEARISH views on USD/CAD. He seems to be relying on "History repeats", but my advice would be to listen to SplitENZ
http://makoml.blogs.com/blog/Quote:
quote:History never repeats
I tell myself before I go to sleep
And there's a light shining in the dark
Leading me on towards a change of heart
No hidden meanings :D:D
cheers
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes, thats an interesting blog.
Late confirmation on that Cad short, considering
we have been bearish from away back when.
He obviously needs to read ST everyday for a few good
tips from the 'A' team who really know how to grasp
a Butterfly net. ;)
Anyway, back to feed the Monarchs. They take alot
of looking after. Plus Mrs Gann is moaning......again!
............that hubby is away too much.
arco
Hi Xerof
And on an aside re Split Enz.
'True colours' was one of my all time favourite albums.
In fact I wore the tape out. - Now have the CD.
(Not that History Repeats was on that album,
but it is definately one of their best IMO.
arco
The Long and Winding Road, takes me to...
another 34 pips overnight..........
Short from 2695 - Currently +445 at Wed close.
Anyway you'll never know the many ways I've tried, but
Still they lead me back to the long and winding road
All good things have to come to
and end. Major Gann and his chaps
situated at 2207 stood firm
without flinching and repelled the
loonie invader.
Stop hit at 2338 + 357]
Feeling lucky?
Might be an opp here for a low risk long.
Recent low 2230 and Major Gann at 2207.
Be on the look out for a possible reversal pattern.
With Fridays close at 2184 and Major Gann positioned
around 2207 the Loonie will soon head north with its tail
between its legs IMVHO.
Fly north you loonie bird, and be quick about it.
Hesitate at 2451 if you dare - to coin a phrase.
http://members.shaw.ca/leonard92/one.gif
Yes I tossed and turned over buying USD/CAD on Friday night, but thought I'd wait and see what happens early this week. Might add a sliver or two on a trailing s/l entry above your infamous 12207 level. Seems a very high correlation with oil is driving this pair short term, for what others are saying....
Xerof
Arco, what sort of tolerance can Gann can, before Gann can't?
Xerof
Good question.
But, there is no answer to it unfortunately.
All I can say is that in theory Gann 2207 should
be a very powerful support.
Additionally the action is within a Butterfly
target reversal zone, and just on the new uptrend line.
arco
Arco, what about the fairly obvious bearish flag on the weekly?
I guess we need to wait for the end of this week, as last weeks close on the flag bottom was very borderline and probably couldn't be called a breakout
Xerof
yes it looks like a med-long term continuation pattern to me
this just came out from GFT news
"It is one way business as far as [USD/CAD] is concerned with the post employment data reaction for both the US and Canada falling in favour of the downtrend. Refreshed technical sell signals though 1.2250 have now combined with the upbeat fundamental picture for the Loonie and players are looking towards tests of 1.2000. This week's chief risk events lie with either BOC or trade data. However, players see both as potential boosters for the downtrend, eyeing the CB meet to firm up the date of the expected first hike, whilst trade historically acts to garner support for the Loonie. Sales into strength are preferred whilst below 1.2300. A build of option barriers through 1.1950-1.2050 provide the mainstay of support. "
interestinly Martin calls it differently
says its going to build a base and advance
"Gold Coast Martin 06:51 GMT July 10, 2005
RE:CAD..12134 is its base for now with a 12268-78 GOOD TARGET....further out cad is developing a longing theme that will peak out at 12785-90 in the next 2 months...."
I know Peat, we've got the best TA man and the man with the flows both taking a caning in terms of price action (thats not a criticism of Arco or GCM).
I want to get in but some little bird (perhaps its the Loonie) keeps telling me to stay out, and so far its paid off.
Arco, could you oblige with a post displaying your emerging butterfly reversal - I can't see it, but then I'm no lepidopterist and it may be well camoflauged[|)][|)]
Xerof (cabbage white)
Evening All
Yes, its looking a bit odd, but Major
Gann may come to the rescue. I think we
have to see what the EOD candle looks like.
If it turns into a hammer we may get lucky.
If its a long black I will have a re-think
in the AM over a cup of coffee.
Anyway, I still have a long order in just
above the action at 2220 - in case the
Loonie flys north at high speed while I'm
having a kip.
I can thoroughly recommend Allpress beans, if you happen to own a Rocket E61 and a decent grinder. We can't get it here in the Bay, instead relying on every and any one going through to Taupo to pick some up from Flax for us, who very kindly acquiese to many strange requests for 200gms of their finest ground Allpress - takeaway please (as a grinder is Mrs Xerof's next birthday present, so to speak)
Anyone tried it?- you Jaffa's have probably moved on from Allpress to some other concoction, yet to be even written about in the colonial outposts beyond the bombay pale:D:D
Xerof (flat cabbage white)
The Loonie is a much disagreed matter
Almaty BA 12:42 GMT July 11, 2005
Beijing Laowen 12:39 GMT July 11, 2005
IMVHO - it is a buy lets see with stop loss around 1.2100!!!
Beijing Laowen 12:39 GMT July 11, 2005
Almaty BA 12:36 GMT July 11, 2005 //
But I feel it is a sell. IMHO.
Almaty BA 12:36 GMT July 11, 2005
USD/CAD is a buy !!!
As I said last night.......
If it turns into a hammer we may get lucky.
There is a nice Hammer on EOD.....so watching with interest.
(Keep an eye on Minor Gann at 2085 for possible support)
Xerof
If you start from 7/2 you should be able to net a
tiny one. But don't get in a flap.
looks like the bounce is on
missed it, watching the ASX:(
Cheers slam
1.2207. Reckon this one is next to burst out of the blocks and if it goes the way I'm thinking, the NZD and AUD should follow a few hours later.
Caveat - resistance at 1.2250 and 1.2300, but hey, thats a few piparoonies to be had if thats the way it breaks[^][^]
This one also has a very nice cup and handle formation on the hourly, which may assist with legging it higher
Xerof
Nup, from yesterday, broke up but couldn't break first fib level of prevailing trend, and today has broken downside of triangle at 12185, for a reasonably quick 30 pips so far....
Oh well, if you missed grabbing some of that 300 pip
run after my posts on 11/7-12/7 it may be time to start
looking again for all those familiar reversal signs.
(Gann Minor at 1841 could lend a hand).
Whoops, sorry to disturb those sleeping :D
Back to the Sudoku
Arco, there's a few billion here if you have a moment.....
www.websudoku.com
I've done a couple of 'evil's - and can confirm they are....
nice weekend to all - bring on September...we'll 'spring' into action then....
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Thanks - Yes Sudoku is very addictive,
(and Mrs Arco is hooked as well).
Have a look here foe a few more sites.
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21915
Good weekend all.
Entered at 1945 on the 30m ascending triangle break.
Currently + 50. Selling half and moving stop on bal
to b/e.
.........50% balance stopped out at break-even.
Half a loaf is better than none at all :D
Looking a tad interesting again.
The Looney is in a potential turnaround zone so
well worth watching for any signs of reversal.
Gann at 1718 could lend a hand with some support.
GTA
arco
Circa 100 pips for those brave souls who
stumbled aboard the Looney express yesterday.
......I like it when a plan comes together :)
Morning arco
Good spotting again
Was looking for a small retrace to get in but it never had one[}:)]
Watching GBP and EUR for a reversal atm;)
Cheers
Slam
Still in the race here with a portion of
the old order. Stop on balance now at b/e
If anyone is following this trade I have now reversed the balance of the long trade at 1815 (+70)
Short now +8
arco
I have decided to close off the CAD short now
for a nice overnight profit and will re-evaluate
later once I check out thr EOD chart.
+129 pips
arco
well done arco
Trying a shot at a short term long here
- in @ 1688 (+ 6).
Risky trade, but jumping the gun on a
possible Ascending Triangle forming on the 15m.
If it breaks resistance circa 1707 there should be
a chance of adding few pips to the pot.
Tight stop
arco
Up trend line broken
Trade closed -6 pips.
This is one that actually looks a tad interesting.
No glaring confirmation yet, but the action is playing within a potential reversal zone, so worth keeping an eye on the Looney as it could break north at some point in the short/medium term.
arco
Could have made circa 100 pips on that wee north bound move in the last 4 days. [V]
Anyway the 15 minute has a possible Narrowing Wedge forming, so you never know - if the uptrend line breaks there could be a few pips to be had due south.
arco
The Narrowing Wedge broke around 18.30 and polarity change was tested around 3.30 am. I had a short order, sitting just below the most recent pivot low, which got hit at 1750.
Currently + 3.....Wow I'm rich already :D
The Oscillator is still below the centre line, however the action is still within a potential reversal zone so I will treat this one with an air of caution.
arco
I have just closed this position +24 for reasons mentioned earlier.
I mentioned this possible on 12/9.
This may be the turn we have been waiting for.Quote:
quote:Looking a tad interesting again.
The Looney is in a potential turnaround zone so
well worth watching for any signs of reversal.
Gann at 1718 could lend a hand with some support.
(Bullish engulfing on weekly)
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101005but_454.gif
arco
A bullish gartley may have completed on the 360 min chart a couple of bars ago, to add to your longer term butterfly Arco.
Reckon its worth a flutter? Where's Colonel Gann encamped?
Xerof
Morning Xerof
I am long this one and showing -30 at the moment [V] after being nicely in profit yesterday (up around +80).
Gann is at 1719 and I've given him a blast on his mobile to tell him to stand firm at all costs. I've told him bluntly, there will be no Christmas party this year if he fails on this one.
arco ;)
Major Gann has just been on the blower. Something about seeing a Mr Gartley heading north chasing a bull of all things.
I told him. 'You've better things to do - like defending your post'.
Baa....If only he had PXT.