I think perhaps Mr Gaynor is overlooking the most significant headwind for the housing market.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11390463
New Zealanders have 73% of their assets in housing, that figure may be higher or lower for the baby boomers, who would really know.
But, they will be starting to downsize from about here on, and as a demographic, many if not most, will need to sell that empty family home and buy something of lower value, as many if not most, will need to start drawing an income from what was their housing assets.
Baby boomers: Born between 1946 and 1964, aged now between 51 and 69.
After a couple of years of travel and kicking about the empty nest, those 69 year olds will be initiating the downward spiral anytime about now.
We’ve seen a secular bull market in housing for 20 odd years, in part pushed along by the wealthiest generation in history pumping 73% of their free cash into the housing market.
Perhaps we will now start to see a secular bear market of similar duration whilst they now suck it out again ?