Anyone else out there riding this winner? Not a mention anywhere but couple of weeks ago it closed at 1690 and that was high - now 1950. At this rate I can afford to spray diesel on the weeds in my driveway.
Printable View
Anyone else out there riding this winner? Not a mention anywhere but couple of weeks ago it closed at 1690 and that was high - now 1950. At this rate I can afford to spray diesel on the weeds in my driveway.
NZR
29/04/2004
ADDRESS
REL: 1400 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
ADDRESS: NZR: Chairman's address to the AGM 29 April 2004
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
Chairman's Address
This year, I have departed from tradition and have asked the Company's
General Manager, Thomas Zengerly to provide you with an update on the
Company's performance and other items of significance that the Company has
been involved in. I will concentrate on the strategic and governance aspects
You will note that the agenda is longer than usual. Some of the items will
no doubt raise issues for some. I will not discuss these items now, but as
we cover off on the agenda items, we will discuss the items before voting on
them.
Firstly though, a comment on our annual accounts. For 2003, we have
commenced a transition from our traditional focus on financial reporting to
triple bottom reporting. We as a major industry in New Zealand, recognise
that stakeholders, want more information and Annual Reports are the
appropriate place to provide information about Social, Environmental and
Economic information.
In February we reported the results for the year. To recap, the company made
an Operating Surplus before tax of $59.6 million, 2.5% higher than 2002. The
final dividend was 60 cents, with full imputation credits.
When combined with the interim dividend of 60 cent we paid out 78% of net
profit after tax, this is less than what we have achieved in the past but
still an excellent outcome.
The directors were concerned that 2004 could be quite a demanding year from a
financial perspective. High exchanges rates and a major shut down being to
key factors to consider. We feel far more comfortable now that we have
completed the first quarter and are well into the second quarter. Refining
margins have been high and the New Zealand dollar is now weaker against the
USD. The shutdown is due to commence next week.
Corporate Governance has been a topic high on the agenda of many boardrooms
this year. We are in the process of making some changes to Board
composition, committees etc, in order to comply with NZX rules. This process
will be completed by the October deadline. I agree with recent comments made
by the recent comments by Sir Ron Brierley regarding directors reiterate that
rules and regulations don't make a person honest or make them more
trustworthy.
Good Directors and Managers know what is right or wrong and value personal
integrity very highly. On behalf of the Directors of your Company, I can
state that we will comply with the rules and appendices of the New Zealand
Exchange, but I will also add that our standards and requirements for good
governance have not changed because of these new rules.
In early 2003, we took steps to ensure the Independence of our Auditors was
not compromised and adopted many of the principles in Sarbanes Oxley. Our
Internal Audit programme is comprehensive, based on risk assessments covering
all aspects of our business. We have extensive quality assurance, safety and
environmental programmes in place. I am not saying we are perfect - many of
the aspects like safety is a never ending journey - what I am saying is that
as professionals tasked with creating long term benefits for stakeholders, we
are pro-active and we do not wait for rules
Last year, the Board approved the Future Fuels project which is one of the
largest industrial projects in New Zealand in the last decade - allocating a
total of $180 million to the project. Foster Wheeler were appointed the main
Engineering, Procurement and Construction contactor. Progress to date has
been good. We are still on target in terms of safety performance, schedule
and cost. Thomas will provide further details in his presentation.
Today the Minister of Energy will announce that the Company has been awarded
1.2 million carbon credits. This is subject to completing a co-generation
plant at Marsden Point. NZRC staff and HRL, an Australian organisation with
expertise an
I bought this years ago.. couldn't bear to part with it... making me around 10% a year in dividends... a 37% increase in share price... and maybe another decent payout in September. sweet.
Back up another 40cps today, clearly on the back of rising prices. Anyone like to suggest a good exit price? I mean at what point does speculation end and common sense take over? I could do with about 40,000 in my pocket to buy up some WRI when they plummet back to 120cps.
Seems to still be gpoing pretty well, now I really wish I had bought some in Jan at under $15.
What happens to this company in terms of exchange rates? I suppose they just pass everything through, but in general they would be better with a higher NZ$?
The major shareholding is with the oil companies that control the pump price - oil goes up the pump price goes up - oil comes down, well, wait a few days, think about and then reduce the price. This way the more volatility, the more profit and a big divvy for the shareholders - the oil companies and me. Now at 2,000cps and rising
disappointing to see that the STUNNING interim result managed to not even get 1 comment...
Disc: Hold a few
Give us your comments Steve, I am interested
Would love to see the interim report or the slip that arrives about the same time as the dividend but I still wait and hope. The money has arrived and thats the main thing.
Sorry I didn't know you meant the [u]old </u>interim report from last month.
Yep, the interim announcement was a month ago and not a squeek on here.
The interim profit up near 150%, despite the scheduled maintenance shut down. P/E ratio is very reasonable, interim dividend was 5% alone not counting any final dividend.
My analysis places a share price of up to $30 on this company based on the current fundamentals.
Craic, you obviuosly follow NZR, what value do you have?
Who remembers the days when the share price hit $40.00?!
Not too long ago we were getting dire predictions from management about the costs of maintenance etc and the fact that profits would be down and the shareholders could not expect the high dividends that they had been getting etc. I wondered at the time if this was a move to reduce the shareholding by reducing the price thus allowing those in the know to clean up. My paranoia knows no bounds but I am glad I hung on to my couple of thousand shares.I see from the half-year report that the number of shareholders has reduced from 2554 to 2415 in the year or 5%
Where did all the sellers go yesterday? They all cleared out, and someone stepped up to the plate offering 20,000 @ $25.00 = $500,000!
Yes, it is all a bit astonishing. depth shows 5000 buys at the current price or marginally above, and only 400 sells at 2350. And, if this is not a big enough jump, the next sell batch is still as steve reported: 20k @ $25!
I've only held ~1350 of these since May 02, but they make me very happy... Cheers.
NZR's a stock that has been copnsistently been highlighted on this site as a good long term investment - and I have consistently ignored it [B)]
Well done to its backers!
An interesting aspect of the interim report is a reduction in the number of shareholders from 2554 to 2415 or - 5%. This leads me to believe that there is one or more out there with a constant buy order on the market, ready to mop up any lots. I've only got a couple of thousand but they are not getting mine.
Hello the Happy Holders!!
What a glorious day... Currently buyer at $24, and lowest seller is $35. I must say that the buyer wont be getting any of mine either. Wonder how I'll feel when the buyer is bidding $35.
$24 been and gone.. buyers at 24.51, next seller at $26.. dayum.. !!
Well done Craic,
Try widdling on your weeds and you'll have even more money in the bank !
Felonius
On the SCT Chart thread, K1w1 asked about trend following indicators for the current NZR uptrend.
K1w1, I have plotted the 20% Trailing Stop that you mentioned - you can see that it is way too far from the current price action to be useful. A 10% Trailing Stop is much better, as is a 12x ATR Trailing Stop. Another suitable indicator here would be a 100 day Simple Moving Average (plotted in red). A tentative trendline is plotted in light green. Prices falling below any of these 4 indicators would be logical Sell signals for this stock.
The situation here is similar to that of MHI. A confirmed trendline (dark green) was rendered obsolete by the acceleration of the stock's uptrend, so a new steeper trendline closer to the price action was required. This new trendline is unconfirmed as yet.
There are of course plenty of other good trend indicators. The chart shows just a few of the simpler ones.
http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/NZR001.gif
Thanks Phaedrus for explaining . That share price is in such a steep climb that I am getting nosebleeds just looking at the graph!
This TV special addresses the state of the oil industry, an incessantly
pressing issue facing our global economy and environment. "PBS: Extreme
Oil" offers insight into the technology, history, processes and current
challenges of the oil industry.
The series, and this thorough website, take viewers on a world 'oil
tour'. Travel below ground, through pipelines, in barrels, aboard ships,
across oceans as well as into the minds of those who work on the production
and distribution of what has long been known as 'black gold'. The site
features a fascinating history of the industry, an education into the
science behind the business, as well as highlighting crucial environmental
issues facing the oil trade and its diminishing resources.
http://www.pbs.org/wnet/extremeoil/
Phaedrus, I note that you haven't adjusted your chart for the $1.00 (plus full imps) dividend in september. Any reason for this?
PS: welcome back!
Yes. Oversight. NZR looks even better when adjusted. I won't post the chart again though - I don't want to exacerbate K1w1's epistaxis!
NZR
11/10/2004
GENERAL
REL: 0828 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
GENERAL: NZR: High margins continue for NZRC
Throughput for the two month period ending August 2004 was 6,561,000 barrels
(same period 2003 6,660,000). The lower throughput was due to lower volumes
of blendstock being received and constraints resulting from the introduction
of new fuel specifications. These constraints will not be overcome until the
start-up of the Future Fuels Project in 2005.
The margin achieved for the period of USD6.55 (2003 USD3.05) was the highest
for the year. Noting that the margin reported for the two month period ending
June was adversely affected by the shutdown.
refer www.nzrc.co.nz for the last three years Throughput and Margin
information
A copy of this release can be requested from lcr@nzx.com.
End CA:00106315 For:NZR Type:GENERAL Time:2004-10-11:08:28:26
And now the price is 2700cps. How high can you fly?
I notice that this recent upward action in the shareprice has happened since I announced that my analysis a week or so ago that I valued NZR around $30[^]
Should I give up my night job?[?]
lol
Certainl not because you are WAAAAAAAAAAAAy below the mark
Yes, I do remember those days gone by when NZR was above $40. Then again, I also remember when NZR was $1.50...
Yet again the SP in a NZX company jumps for no good reason. Then a positive announcement is made "to keep the market fully informed". Clearly some were fully informed prior to others.
K1w1, my opinion is that there is a good reason why the shareprice jumped. NZR is fundamentally under-valued and has been for quite a while, a fact IMHO which investors are begining to wake-up to given the current econimic climate. The positive announcement released today in not really that unexpected, especially given the previous few production figures released...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by k1w1
Yet again the SP in a NZX company jumps for no good reason. Then a positive announcement is made "to keep the market fully informed". Clearly some were fully informed prior to others.
I am a little confused, and perhaps someone can help. I see that on the direct borking web site the full year profit for NZR is reported as being 71.225 million. Now this appears to be the last half year result (34.278) plus the last *full* year result (36.947) added together!!!
Am I right in assuming this, or have I got something wrong. If I am right then this is a little screwed up, is it not?
(This is no reflection on Direct Broking, as I am aware that most brokers get their financial figures via a service)
mm, you are correct in your assumption.
This sort of issue (reported financial data integrety) is being currently being discussed in another thread.
Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result
One for NZR'ers:
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?ac...catid=8&id=705
Quote:
quote:Over 50% upside seen in NZ Refining Co
While refining margins have been strengthening for the past few years, the analysts at CSFB have taken a number of factors into consideration and as a result see potential share price upside in excess of 50% to New Zealand Refining Company’s (NZR.NZ) current share price.
Price elasticity of demand has been low recently, the analysts point out and this has driven changes to their refining margin forecasts with the outlook seen as generally improving.
CSFB new mid-cycle refining margin forecast for the Asia Pacific region has risen by 40% to US$3.50/bbl, while FY05 forecasts have been increased by 60% to US$4.00/bbl.
Incorporating the new Singapore refining margins into earnings forecasts sees FY05 profit expectations rising by a whopping 277% and FY06 by 121%.
The company’s valuation rises 86% to NZ$32.00 and its target by 80% to NZ$34.70, not bad for a stock that closed yesterday at NZ$22.25.
well you can do a simple extrapolation from last year and come up with a year end result of around 89 million :)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by craic
Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result
Craic i see nzr has gone up 26% in the last week according to NZHearld. Why have u gone quiet on this one? You haven't gone stupid and sold out just as the rise occured.
I have no investment in NZR but liked your reasoning in the past as to it's value.All in NOG and some Aus oilers,but think that NZR and drilling rigs are also in the right game for the future.
Digger, I have gone silent because there is little more to say. Not many of these shares on the market anyway. Thanks to this and one or two others, my portfolio has grown $22,000 in just two months. Not bad for an Old-Age Pensioner. I just need MHI to go through the roof folowed by CEN, PGG and a couple of others and I will be able to get off this monotonous bread and dripping diet at last.
Bread & dripping Craic? Nowt wrong with it lad. Luxury I say.
Stay on it and top up NZR with the dough you save.
o gosh! Up another ~5% to $29.50. If nose-bleeds are contagious, start searching for buckets and mops.
Thanks to posters for sensible discussions. I'm practically swooning over the thought of bread and dripping upgrades, and could well have sold out in the general excitement of the last few months.
If they keep the divis respectable though, I'm going to have to keep them forever, having an average entry of 1627.
Cheers .
good to see the price moving again here.
shame i sold mine two weeks ago.
good that i bought NOG options with the money.
and that NOGOC has risen 30% in that time.
would like to dip in again here tho... I like the divi's too
Seems that the reason for the jump was nothing more exciting than an article in the Dominion that highlighted the recent high margins report.
No, I think its more than the high margins. Its the fact that the NZ dollar being high is more than compensated for by the margins. You can't suddenly fix neglected oil infrastructure, nor speedily address the demand made by Chinese industrialisation. So its sustainable for the immediate duration.
In the middle turn, the debottlenecking of the pipeline will produce an annual increased return of about 20% per annum. In Buffett terms it puts a moat around NZR from domestic competition. Who can get a tank farm big enough to service Auckland built under the RMA ? How expensive is it to tanker petrol from New Plymouth or Tauranga when someone can just pump it down a pipeline to Auckland and from there to other areas as required.
The other moat building exercise is the new low emmission fuels project which will be able to be met without capital raising from debt and cash flows. This will narrow the range of refineries capable of sourcing alternative supplies to Marsden Point which has negotiated margins with Govt prior to agreeing to the upgrade. So will be harder to undercut with the new higher standards fuel in NZ will have to meet.
The highest cost of the refinery is electricity so the joint venture regarding electricity co-generation using oil or wood chips makes sense in terms of keeping long term costs down.
Makes for a sound long term put in your bottom draw share, especially with the fully imputed dividends.
you can bung on top of that the possibility of LNG imports into Marsden point. More than likely to go on NZR land and be a joint venture.
Its intersting to note that NZR's market share is actually slipping though due to it running at maximum but the market still growing. But with the new pumps on the pipeline it should be able to shift more product down it even if it is imported into Marsden. They still get a fee per bbl.
Not too sure about the comments on the project being funded from cash flows... the clean fuel project cost 180m (read NR) and profits for the half year are only 35m (not that bad though).
Chris, sorry it was not that clear. Funded by debt and cash flows means that the banks will advance them the funds and that the interest and repayments can be met from cashflow without requiring further capital raising such as a rights issue.
Kiwi, I did not say that the price rise was on higher margins - but that it was in response to an article in the Dominion. The article extolled the benefits of the margins etc. The article headlined the company at the top of the business news page and drew it to the attention of the readers. I am always surprised at the good companies, making good profits and capital gains who are left without any mention in the media while some cr appy little outfits gain all sorts of publicity for no better reason than that someone somewhere has a vested interest in pushing the name and the journos don't know enouigh to know that they are being used
And the price is now $31 and should rise in expectation of a decent dividend.
NZR
16/12/2004
FORECAST
REL: 1336 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
FORECAST: NZR: NZRC expects Profit of $90-95 mln after tax for 2004
The Directors of The New Zealand Refining Company have considered forecasts
of the full year results for 2004 and provide the following information under
the continuous disclosure rules of the NZX:
Exceptionally high international refining margins in 2004, high utilisation
and operational excellence have contributed to a higher projected revenue
from refining operations to $230-240 mln compared to $154 mln for 2003. This
is expected to result in an after tax profit of $90 to $95 million for
2004.The higher earnings will assist in funding the Future Fuels project
which is on track for commissioning during the third quarter of 2005. The
total project cost is expected to be $180 mln. To date $100 mln have been
spent.
The Directors will make an announcement regarding dividends on 24 February
2005.
At this stage a modest increase for the dividend is anticipated and a return
to more typical trading conditions in 2005 is expected.
End CA:00109542 For:NZR Type:FORECAST Time:2004-12-16:13:36:24
Is this market speak for "take the money and run"? This thing has doubled in a year. I can't post charts. But if I could, it would show a fairly flat line through 2003 and a rapid uptrend that has seen it more than double in price since the end of 2003.Quote:
quote: a return
to more typical trading conditions in 2005 is expected.
If a "return
to more typical trading conditions in 2005 is expected", perhaps now is the time to book the profit and look for other opportunities?
good jump in price today but one has to question that even if we do get a $4 divvy this year (which based on the past policies of the oil companies to take their fair share up front) is more than likely to happen then what will happen next year? I suspect that margins might ease a bit and the profits will drop... mind you, this year was a shut down year with the extra costs and loss of production for a month...
Keep up the good work guys.
Ignore the cautions about future profits. I have followed this one as closely as anyone and they ALWAYS issue these cautions. In the past it has been a need to introduce new technology or replace parts of the refinery or something else.
craic. Then a fool and their money would have been easily parted back in 99 when it was issued that refinery margins were falling.
Traditionally refinery margins in the region are stable at around $2/bbl. This year has been an exception due to high demand from China. Check out how many refinerys are being built in China at the moment... heaps of the things.
In my opinion, the market will turn into an over supply mode over the next 3 years and margins will fall.
Of course there are things such as the pipeline which will be providing increased thruput soon to help out the poor aucklanders.
The refinery is pretty cautious with their predictions (you are correct) but I have seen situations where its more benificial for the refinery to turn petrol into oil rather than the other way around.
Those oil markets are a funny old thing sometimes.
NZR has had a great run this year. By my calculations to date this year alone NZR has put on 106.7%
Chris, whatever else, this is a monopoly. Where else do you get your fuel and who would buy it? The major oil companies own the refinery - or 70% of it - If they start buying from independant overseas sources then they kill the goose that lays the golden egg.
true... but it depends if they have better geese in their flock that they wish to fatten.. especially if the others are 100% owned by them.
Chris,
The reason why NZR did Future Fuels is that there are very few alternative refineries in the region that can meet the new NZ standard. Although you are correct that there are a number of new refineries in china but to a lower standard.
So Craic is right about a reinforced monopoly. That is the significance of the pipeline as well.
When they get some co-generational deal to secure reasonably priced long term power then this is a safe long term share to put in the bottom draw.
I think it is safe at 15.... not so safe at 30.
Back up 100 cps to 3300 cps and this miust be just days before a result is published? They usually pay out end of March beginning of April. Last year the announcement was made on 26 February. Maybe the tea lady is getting in early
I think it is more than likely that the tea lady has read the morning newspapers and looked at the BP and Shell articles stating that they have made a killing on the back of high refining margins.
Not a good start to the year in regards to reliability though... heard that they ran out of juice... and then they had a couple fo oil spills into the harbour too...
Not that good when the crowd down the road are looking at putting in a coal fired power station. The greenies will be chasing this one I think...
Chris
Just checked a December press release and a divi announcement is planned for 24 Feb:
"At this stage a modest increase for the dividend is anticipated ..."
Given that the last four divs have been 50, 60, 60 and 100 cps, but that the share price has doubled, I wonder what "a modest increase" means?
If it is a similar div to share price proportion that is modestly increased, could we anticipate 210 cps? I rather think not, but good fun dreaming...
what was the interium one? I would imagine that they would round it up to around the $3.50 level (total for the year).... they like to pay out 100%...
Sept 02 = 100 cps
Mar 03 = 50 cps
Sept 03 = 60 cps
Mar 04 = 60 cps
Sept 04 = 100 cps
This is as far as my records go, and if it ain't correct, my records are wrong... [:0]
One back from your dates is
28.3.02 1250 cps. Lets hope that's the one they beat this time.
As a NZR holder, I am not too concerned by how much they INCREASE the dividend...:)
Up $1.50 today on highest refining margins ever !
Some rough looks backward:
Announcement 11 Oct that margins for 2 months ending august were $6.55.
Shareprice jumped from ~$22 to ~$27. :)
Announcement 23 Nov that margins for 2 months ending Oct 23 were $5.49.
Shareprice moved from ~$27 to ~$30. :) :)
Announcement 16 Dec; exceptionally high refining margins ... expect a modest increase in div..."
Shareprice move to ~$32. :D
Announcement 16 Feb margins for 2 months ending Dec highest of year at $8.86.
Shareprice moves to $34.50. :D :D
Query 1: I wonder if they knew on 16 Dec that the margins would be as high as $8.86 (very large increase from previous of $5.49).
If not, perhaps we can see much more than "a modest increase" in div?
Query 2: Does today's shareprice movement strike anyone else as pretty quiet for record-breaking news? (Maybe more rise tomorrow?)
Roll on 24 Feb!! [:p] [:X]
Who else remembers when the share price was over $40, back some 10+ years ago?
Is the current situation similar to that time?
well, folks, Scamper's betting that there is less than an hour to dream on...
I'm going for a 200 cps share div.
Any advances on 200?
Let's not get too greedy!;)
Any dividend is going to be ALL good...:)
cant be a board meeting today...no one has come out at lunch time to place their share orders....
I think meetings are usually held on the last Thursday of the month.... could be mistaken...
Often they dont know what the actual margin is until 2 months after the event (pre and post running of feed stocks)... it gets tricky...
Place gets shut down this weekend to do some work... could be expensive during times of high margins...
Yep, you're right. announcement re div due 24 Feb. sorry 'bout the false alarm...
At what time - 4.55pm?
usually around 3ish from distant memory. I am guessing a profit of around 98m (after tax)for the year... that would give a divvy of around $4 (full imputed) but reading between the lines I would think that the directors are going to keep some money for debottle necking as it looks like cogen is not an option at the moment due to not enough gas (waiting for a decent supply)
I think we might see a final one of 2.50 (with a $1 interium) giving a yield of close to 10% after tax.... better than money in the bank at this stage... but similar to an investment in Metropolis (high yeild but may not get your capital back)
JMO of course.
Chris
Come on Belg, that was over 2 years ago! Remember that people in the NZ market have a VERY short memory span...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Anyone remember this thread ... http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.a...76&whichpage=1 ... ;) ... Man I got bashed on it ... :D
8.33 after tax isnt a bad return for this year....
That'll do me.
NZR
24/02/2005
FLLYR
REL: 1342 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
FLLYR: NZR: NZRC Full Year profit $97.5m Dividend 190cps
FY to 31/12/2004 $97.5m ($36.9m) +200% Div 200cps
LISTED ISSUER: The New Zealand Refining Company Limited
Which is it?
the $2 is consistant throughout most of the document.... dunno where the 1.90 came from? DM care to comment?
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited Announcement (issued @ 8:32am)
NZR25/02/2005DIVIDEND REL: 0832 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited DIVIDEND: NZR: NZRC confirms dividend is 200cps The Headline of the announcement made on the 24th February 2005 wasincorrect. The dividend amount is 200 cps not the 190 cps stated. The Companyapologises for the confusion caused by this error.End CA:00111947 For:NZR Type:DIVIDEND Time:2005-02-25:08:32:41
Is anyone planning to offload some (or already done so)any time soon?
How are the faithful coping?!
Nope! I'm hanging on to mine and are in for the ride...
I don't know how, but I managed to buy into NZR just prior to the announcement that margins for Mar05/Apr05 remain high. I can't recall having ever purchased a share selling for over $5, so to purchase a share at $33.40 is something of a leap into the unknown for me.
As a newcomer, it will also be interesting to see how the shareprice responds to any weakness in the NZD against the USD. One would think that subsequent exchange rate weakness should support the recent rally. It may even be a driver for pushing the shareprice onto bigger and better things.
I seem to recall the annual meeting fielded calls from the floor for the share to be split to increase liquidity. From memory they made all the right noises, so it will be interesting to see whether they act accordingly. I am not holding my breath on this one...
Regards JAMP
NZX: FTX MCH MVN NZR PPG RBD SAN SKX SPE SPN
NZAX: CVT
Unlisted: BRK
notice issued in the past couple of days to the effect that high margins were maintained. Up 275cps friday to friday, not a bad sort of a rise. I also noted that the rise preceded the announcement to some degree. Dividend in September might be another 200 cps?
This company is over 70% owned by the major oil companies so there will be little interest in a share split to attract Joe Bloggs.
:D:D:DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by belgarion
Bought as many as I could when I started the 'energy doom and gloom' thread. Those supplying my borrowing thought that the price of oil would fall, yes FALL, when america invaded Iraq. My yeild now is just beautiful. I like cash. Now I sit.
and what did you say oil would do to the US/Japanese economies and the DOW? Both those economies have been trucking along very well, the DOW is up nearly 45% since that thread. (shakes head and laughs)
The following from Belgarion on said "energy doom and gloom" thread......
"Is nobody doing the maths here? Check out US (and others) falling inventories. Oil companies are hedging that next year they'll be able to stock up at lower prices. Will they? Remember many economies, US and Japan, for example have a direct relationship between growth and the price of oil. Oh and so does the DOW, S&P and oil prices.
BTW Capitalist, like to see your numbers (or even your logic) to support your view that everything will be hunky-dory Oil futures are fairly bullish at present even though the the Iraq issue is likely to be resolved within a 6 month period. Thats an interesting one to explain."
[^]Very interesting indeed.
BTW that is when he also said he would sell down all of his stock holdings;), and maybe buy TEL:D
[K9 Quote - Oil companies are hedging that next year they'll be able to stock up at lower prices]
What does that mean ?
Oil companies want the price to stay up cos they own reserves, and are able to extract otherwise uneconomic deposits.
Refineries are dependant on reliability & throughput that is all.
Maximum throughput at maximum margins are all you can hope for and currently that aint bad. They are nothing but a cash cow and I would think the Oil Co's want every drop of dividend out to make up for red ink on their marketing margins - does anyone else see NZR as a great defensive stock to buy even at current prices at this point of the economic cycle ?
Don`t ask me, I`m not that dumb
Ask the writer Belgarion...it was his call[xx(]
Compared to Europe, the US and particularily Japan has been doing quite nicely EVEN with high OIL prices.
The price of oil will only increase in the long term. Short term fluctuations will continue, but long term the price will be sky high. A company finding oil that is uneconomic today will find that tomorrow it becomes a cash cow. The world will run out of oil in the end, with great wars fought over the remaining stocks.
We will produce alternatives, but to counter that we will always have a great demand for remaining resources. The share market will treat the people well that can visualise this. The retailers of oil and refineries will depend on other aspects, it is the companies with oil in the ground that will be the big winners the large refineries will go out of business.
Good post DM, if you read it with a deep voice it sounds like the begining of another Peter Jackson triolgy...
Your points strike me as completely logical e.g. oil will run out one day and the price will be unlikely to go down.
The 'great wars' bit sounds useful in terms of trading gold stocks, perhaps we will get to participate in the new economy after all.
Don't agree that the refineries will go bust before the oil runs out cos it needs to be refined and those who own the oil in the ground also own the refineries. My guess is that will be around 2050.
Which brings me back to NZR; given that the current price is based on expected profitability and dividend payment, why is this not a good time to purchase as apposed to say when the stock was $14 and NZR announced that they may have to halt dividends due to capital expenditure requirements (about 18 months ago I think).
No one seems to know, I guess because $30+ sounds like more than you'd pay for 3 large pizzas. Think I'll buy some more, if I didn't think it was a good investment at $30+ then I guess I'd be selling what I do hold, or is that too obvious ?
Going up again this morning in spite of all the rubbish posted here. All you have to remember is that NZR is an effective monopoly (2) It is owned more than 70% by its primary customers, the three or four big oil companies, Shell BP etc.,(3) Any extra costs can be immediately applied at the pump and customers must pay or walk (4) If they put the price up a tad too soon or keep it up a tad too long, well, its just a little more profit. All the philosophical arguments about world events, supplies, alternatives and the like are of no consequence to you and me as we will have plenty of time to take cover in the event of disaster but right now just sit back and watch those dollars and cents rolling in.
Did a little more research and then bought a few more. Certainly pleased I did now.
My strategy, for what it is worth, is to hold until 12-18 month before the next Olympics, at which point I think demand from China will start to ease.
May hold longer as World refinery capacity needs to increase by 24% to meet predicted 2015 demand.
As it costs 3-4 times as much to build a new one as it does to expand and existing one,many refineries will be undertaking and paying for expansion out of their fat margins,I think a nice little refinery that isn't going to spend capital on expansion or sour crude conversion capability but rather pay dividends sounds good !
Any differing views ?
And the magic 4000cps has been reached again.
Well... I have to eat my words... I for one didnt think that we would see prices like this again.
A couple of interesting things to consider though... Green house gas... yes I know that they have an agreement with the Government but are they keeping too it? Are they still striving for best in class energy efficieny and also the deal that the govt gave them mentioned carbon credits for co-gen... looks like that has been shelved...
On the up side... big land holding in the very expensive Marsden port area.
Increased pipe line capacity which I am sure is being sucked up by the Auckland crowd... for those who are interested, have a look at the AIA throughput charts and it will give you some idea as to the growth of the pipeline... it may however be at maximum capacity by 2009... which is good and bad..
Anyway... only a few days left of the half year.. I am going to predict the profit for the 6 months... I was pretty close with the full year so here goes...
Revenue 143m
Costs 62m
EBIT 81m
Int divvy $2.50
Full year profit 150m.. final divvy $3.
Just thoughts... but still a 15% return
I can live with that, but, I am more inclined to believe that it will be $2.
Caltex Aussie say their profits will be less this year and shareprice took a ahmmering
Reasons cited .... forecasts in respect of
external factors such as refining and marketing margins, freight costs and foreign exchange
rates.
These apply to NZR????
No.
Winner... actually the answer is yes.
USD strongly effects the profit of NZR. Their fees are recieved in USD so a shift from their "hopeful" 59c range to the current 72ish knocks or about 1.50NZD per bbl or 5m nzd per month..
Freight costs I belive will work in the favour of NZR but without seeing some WS rates I wouldnt know.
Marketing costs wont effect it.
Refining margins may have an impact on Caltex Aussie if they have to import product which I believe they are in that situation at the moment.
The answer is still no. NZR is a refining monopoly in NZ. Caltex Australia is a fuel company.
Read the notices
The New Zealand Refining Company Limited Announcement (issued @ 9:38am)
NZR02/06/2005GENERAL REL: 0938 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited GENERAL: NZR: High Margins for the March/April Period Year to date throughput is close to plan. Throughput for the two month periodending April 2005 was 6.378 million barrels. The impact of shipping delayshas been mitigated by higher than planned production. Margins continued to strengthen from the begining of the year, providing anexcellent result for the March/April period. Since then margins have taperedoff to around the USD6.00 level. The average exchange rate for the two month period was .7247. The Year toDate average being .7190. A full copy of this release can be requested from Listed Company Relations byemailing lcr@nzx.com.End CA:00116219 For:NZR Type:GENERAL Time:2005-06-02:09:38:43
Craic. Caltex Aussie are an integrated fuel company with refinerys and marketing (no oil fields)
From my earlier posts I am still prediciting a better year than last year... major factor to include is no total refinery shut down... however... the new plant is coming on line very soon so it will be interesting to see what hiccups that is going to give us!!
I bought a small parcel of this stock today, I know I am a bit late to the party (they have put on 30%ish in the last month)but I think it will keep growing for a couple of reasons
I saw some analysis on growth in oil demand v growth in refining capacity. Growth in oil demand is expected to be somewhat higher than growth in refining capacity. In fact some ppl think that the current high oil prices are more to do with lack of refining capacity than they are to do with fundamental lack of oil. Basic economic rules would suggest that given this demand pressure refining margins long term will only continue to increase. This increase as well as the weakening of the kiwi dollar (all their income is calculated in USD) will be likely to result in a growing bottom line for NZR. Even based on current earnings they are cheap (PE of 11ish) when you factor in expected medium term earnings growth you know you are on to a winner.
I hope no NZR holders had a heart attack when they read the Sunday Star-Times piece today, headed Oil's Well for a Bigger Refinery. Quote from the article:
"Shares in NZ Refining have rocketed from 20 cents a year ago to 46c last week . . ."[:0]
Or has there been a 100 for one restructuring that escaped my notice?
I put NZ Sunday Star Times in my Google tool bar and got this article.
NZRC in no rush to split shares
MONDAY , 11 JULY 2005
By PAUL GORMAN
The country's most expensive shares are still odds-on favourite for a share split but the New Zealand Refining Company is not rushing a decision.
NZRC shares are trading on the New Zealand Exchange at about $46.50 each, having rocketed 45 per cent from the $32 mark that some "mum and dad" shareholders already believed was too high.
They criticised the share structure at the annual meeting at the end of April.
One vocal investor at the meeting, Bryan Burnside, has taken advantage of the boom since then to sell.
But he says he cannot believe how much higher the share price has risen since he sold.
NZRC chairman Ian Farrant told BusinessDay late last week that the board had yet to look into a share split. "At some point I'm pretty sure we'll address the issue."
At the April meeting, Mr Farrant said he was sceptical a split would make the share issue more liquid, saying NZRC tended to be illiquid anyway.
Any division would have to be at four or even five new shares to one, he said then.
Now, with the share price above $45, the ratio for a split may need to be as high as eight-to-one.
Mr Burnside said he decided about a month ago to sell the 1500 NZRC shares he had held for five years because he thought the price was unlikely to go any higher.
"I sold them at $41 (each). I thought it was a bloody silly price (for anyone) to pay for them and I'll get out.
"However, since then it's gone to $44. I thought I'd done well."
Mr Burnside was still of the view that NZRC had to split the shares, as the present price was out of the reach of most small investors.
Other "expensive" NZX shares at the end of last week include Caledonia Investment, at $38.50 each, ANZ Banking Group, at $23.20 each, and Westpac (NZ) Investments, at $21.80 each.
Up another 50 cps this morning. Going to Cairns next monday for a couple of weeks and hope to find it at 5000 cps on my return - to pay for the trip, that is.
I seem to remember that NZR split 3/1 or something during the late 80's , this certainly been a great share but really a proxy to the oil price ,