2 bedroom bach in Le Bons Bay with a RV of $368,000 sells for a dollar.
Ha ha – no. I know that’s what the gloomy people though this is how the story would go.
Actually after 58 bids it sold for $550,000. Bayleys will be pleased with that result.
Printable View
2 bedroom bach in Le Bons Bay with a RV of $368,000 sells for a dollar.
Ha ha – no. I know that’s what the gloomy people though this is how the story would go.
Actually after 58 bids it sold for $550,000. Bayleys will be pleased with that result.
Leading Auckland real estate firm Barfoot and Thompson says there are signs of a recovery in the housing sector - with more buyers and sellers entering the market.
The firm, which says it handles around one in every three Auckland homes sold, said today the average price of houses changing hands last month - $512,536 - was a 3.5 per cent increase on the same month a year ago. It was also 2 per cent higher than the average in January this year.
In February Barfoot & Thompson sold 559 homes, up 8.9 percent on sales in January, and the first time in four years that February sales have been higher than in the preceding January.
The firm listed 1470 new homes, up 50.8 per cent on those listed in January. While down 28.3 per cent on those listed for sale in the same month last year, February 2008’s listings were the highest in any month for more than two years.
dont worry about what barefoot and thumpson say...
they have their own motives/agendas, they are in the business of making money... they will say what ever they want to make money...
The whole real estate business of matching buyers and sellers is a crock...
'
they go to the seller saying house prices are going to get worse...
oh, take the money down trending sector, we are barefoof "recommend selling"...
what do they then do to buyers...
OH...... Prices have dropped...interest rates have fallen... its never a better time to buy than right now...
as real estate agents are trying to coax buyers and sellers they will do what they want, when they want it to get business deals matched....
shame on anyone who listens to real estate agents...
Banks are the same, they know whats up... they want you to lose money so they can make it...
eg fixed interst rates...
If you can provide an unbiased article then shoot...
otherwise you might aswell read what the buffs on the 1st homebuyers thread have been saying for the last two years...
:cool:
.^sc
Shrewdy, as hard as you and I might look I doubt either of us will find an unbiased opinion. But what we can do is look at the evidence and make a call from there.
It goes without saying you have to take a real estate agent opinion with an enormously large grain of salt – I wouldn’t trust them as far as I could kick ‘em. However if they present data we have to give that some recognition for validity. How reliable it is depends on ones viewpoint, which will hopefully be supported by other data. If its good enough for people to listen to their yarns in the good times, I can’t see why they shouldn't listen to the same yarns in the harder times.
Without wanting to crap this thread since this is the good news one, interesting comments from Bernard Hickey ( one of the more vocal self promoting doomsayers) this morning.
For a start he reckons Barfoot and Thompson are one of the more credible real estate agents.
Next Bernard is distrusting of their evidence based approach because he prefers to rely on his anecdotal observations.
Then he reckons its a media beat up – but is silent on the beat up the media gives to a dropping market.
He’s not keen on using “average” figures – but is probably equally unkeen on using mean figures.
And he thinks the figures are skewed because there are a few high value sales – he only appears to like data when there are few high value sales and lots of low value sales.
And finally he’s talking about a 20% drop in values but is silent on where his base is. If its the Nov 08 highs then that is a big move from his original 30% predictions. If its off today’s values then thats a 25% move off Nov Highs. Either way he’s back tracking.
So all in all his comments are good news.
great mini...
now thats a more creditable source....
barefoot and thump-some1.... hahahhaha....
your absolutely right, this is a good news stories thread...
so on that note im gone.........
zzzzzzzzooooooooooooooommmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
:cool:
.^sc
Don’t know if I should include this but Harcourts reckon its good news. They think the tide is turning because they are getting more hits on their website. Personally I think they are looking for an excuse to get some media attention after Barfoots news yesterday.
Got a ring from Harcourt's this morning to tell me that a house I looked at about a year ago (I was 1 of 2 people that went to the open home) had just had a major price reduction (there words) and was I interested ?,I said would think about it.
The house in question came on the market for 415k near the end of the boom,it then dropped to 405k then 399k then 379k then 359k and now a drop of 34k to 325k.
When my lady and I first looked at it I said 300k tops and more like 250k so getting there,but the market has and is changing in that time so ???,and to think if I had listened to some experts around here I could have snapped it up for the bargain price of 379k,Hmmm.
Cheers
Miner
Not really – it is quite apparent that the seller had grossly inflated value of their property which was out of touch with reality. If the property had a value of $415 it would have sold at this price – but obviously it didn’t, so it was never worth $415. This is coupled with a dumb marketing campaign – harcourts (assuming they have had the property all this time) are just eroding the high end value by sending the market mixed messages. It sounds like Miner might have had a more realistic value of the property – so the good news is that particularly property isn’t loosing value – it will eventually sell for its proper value.
From the REINZ today: “....The number of home sales nationwide in February was 5,228, a big jump on the record low of 3,706 in January"... {and the most in the past 11 months}...." The median house price has also improved on January’s figures. The national median house price in February was $330,000, up $5,000 on January’s $325,000”
In part your right as in it was never worth 415k but then allot of others that sold in the few years before this came on the market were never worth what they sold for (some have since sold for substantially less).
What happened with this one is they missed the mental-greed prices,when it came on the bubble had a pin prick and has been leaking badly ever since,so now we look for it to over correct to the low side then maybe look at buying,the property WOULD be loosing value if you were one of the suckers that bought at the mental prices as many did.
I was just about to point out where you have contradicted yourself again mini but as been there done that before will give it a miss,so as before will leave you to your thoughts and will just keep sitting on my hands and watch the market do what I picked it would,a ways to go yet,there are many indicators that say it is still got a ways to go down,1 of them being the ring I got this morning.
Good luck with your cunning plan anyway,each to there own,sure your not a realties agent ???.
Cheers
Miner
Phew had me worried there for a minute.
Cheers
miner
Ok Kiwisavers more good news – you only need to contribute 2% of your pay from 1 April – not the current 4%. Only drawback is you got to be buying in the bottom 25% of house prices in the region.
Its been a good week. Now we have another 0.5% coming off the OCR (down to 3.0%) which will put downward pressure on variable rate mortgages. And there’s potential for a little bit more to be squeezed off rates over the next few months. Bollard reckons the bottom of the trough will be hit mid year – and that’s only a couple of months away. So we’ve had huge rate cuts, a depreciated dollar and govt stimulus along with lowering inflation – things are beginning to look a lot rosier.
Not a single bank has moved anything but floating or 6m rates so far today. Looks like 50bp cut was already built into existing 1-5Yr rates. 25bp in April and then another 25bp in June looks like the go for the next few months. I have 3 mortgages up for re-fixing in May , 2 in June and 1 in Sept. Hoping for 3Yr rates at about 5.75% ...
Just put an offer on a rental in Nelson ... $229k asking , just offered $202,500 ... see how I get on. Rental appraisal is $280-$300pw. Aiming to buy 8 more rentals b4 we say goodbye to 2009.
Minimoke, are you being sarcastic in your comment?
Two Auckland houses have sold for well over their reserves after drawing big crowds at open homes and auctions.
Jane Palmer, of LJ Hooker, said the fact that interest rates had hit a new low was thought to be part of the impetus for strong bidding on the properties.
Ian Jowsey, sales manager and auctioneer for LJ Hooker Ponsonby, said Wednesday's 6pm auction drew 150 to 180 people and strong bidding for both places.
A house at 37 Pine St in the Mt Eden/Balmoral area was valued at $590,000, had a reserve of $625,000 and sold for $730,000.
"Rich in character is this refurbished three- to four-bedroom transitional villa," the agency said, citing west-facing indoor/outdoor flow to a generous lawn, in a quiet street and near popular schools, village shops and transport.
The second house, at 63 Mulgan St in New Windsor, had a reserve of $280,000, was valued at $350,000 and sold for $340,000. It was marketed as needing work.
Hi Mini have you got a link to the New Windsor one ?,ta.
Cheers
Miner
Its no tmuch but try this: http://www.ljhooker.co.nz/images/dyn...tial&e3=278298
or this http://www.realestate.co.nz/1001887
Ta Mini just finished painting one of those,wooden joinery sucks.
Cheers
Miner
brick and aluminium .... mmm , nice ...
Disc: dedicated villa lover !!
A house at 278a Remuera Road, Auckland has just sold for $1.9m – exactly its 2008 rating valuation – indicating no drop in property values over the past year.
The property has had historic value for decades – If QV do the job some posters here think they do then that value would have been recognised in previous valuations. And if people think they can hang 7,800 sales, from housing stock of 1.6m houses, out as “The Market” then the three recent Auckland sales on this thread can surely be used as an indicator.
Sir Ed's house Mini ?.
Cheers
Miner
Not as at 3.00pm today!. As for historic value, one of the last famous peoples house to sell was the world renown, down south, Fred and Myrtle Fluteys house which sold near the “peak of the market” but eventually sold (despite being offered at auction) for less than the asking price – so being famous doesn’t necessarily add value to a house. Since the Fluteys is one house in a much smaller sample size we can conclude that famous houses sell at a discount – therefore this latest house sold at a discount – all good news.
As it was the only site left in the street yet to be developed and have a mansion built on it not sure if it's the best indicator of the market,sale had zip to do with being sir ed's.
Cheers
Miner
There might be some merit there: except this is the Good News thread so any news is going to get spun positively to counter the gloomy people who prefer anecdotal stories upon which they can weave their misery. I prefer an evidenced based approach to weave a yarn. Oh – and incidentally more good news – this sale shows there is still major money out there for house purchases and more cash slopping around if the new owners do want to develop. Even people without so much cash are taking the punt now on properties like that Mulgan St one. And what I particularly enjoy about this latest sale is that it is going to bolster the March sales stats no end.
Nothing to do with gloomy quiet positive actually as it's all doing what I thought it would,just looking at it all with NO EMOTION unlike allot of people,boost the march sale stats as in give yet another false indicator as it will get the average up but not show what's really going on for your shall we say average priced house ?.
Cheers
miner
Bond market in US,Japan & UK responding very favourable to the "quantative easing" ( or is it "quantitive ?? " ... watch the NZ 5 & 10 year swaps retrace some of the upward movement since the last OCR announcement. I've got some 2yr fixed coming off in May and the 3Yr 5.99% rate is making eyes at me. Was worried it may have disappeared but it's still there at the ANZ where the mortgages are held. Enquired last week what the cost would be to break and re-fix now .... amount was roughly double the interest saving so I gave it a miss !!
House prices have fallen below a fair price that investors should be willing to pay - the first time this has happened since late 2006 - says the Westpac Bank.
Westpac economist Doug Steel told an Auckland regional job summit yesterday that house prices were now "around fair value" based on rents, interest rates and other costs.
"The negative sentiment towards housing is overblown," he said
So buy one and take a mortgage out with us.
Just to let you know if you didn't already realise. ANZ will let you "book" a rate if you are within 60days of a fixed rate maturing. I reserved 6.15% 3Yr fixed this morning on 3 loans coming off their fixed rates in early May. Saved me having to pay break fees but still got me some certainty.
ASB are certainly putting the pressure on to get into some fixed rates soon with their huge increase this morning.
yeh westpac is the same TGGG. I locked in a few weeks ago with rollover in a fortnight. with ASB at 7.25 for 5 yrs as of today my 6.5 feels good
I see Westpac have raised their rates this arvo ... even pushed up the 2Yr to 6.25% which is a bit of a shock. Cameron Baigre ( chief economist at ANZ National ) reckon it might pay to have a certain amount of debt at 6mths and just keep rolling it every 180 days ... short term rates to stay lower for longer but the yield curve to stay steep.
I have another mortgage coming of on June 17th and plan to adopt this strategy if 6mth rates are still around the 5.79% level. 2 more small OCR cuts in the meantime may push the 6mth rate lower .. possible it may be up to 1.50% cheaper than say a 3yr rate .. and possibly 2.00% cheaper than a 5Yr which will mean it will be "worth the punt" for a while.
Happy to have 1/4 of my exposure fixed today at 6.15% until May 2012 having said all that.
Great news for first home buyers in both Rotorua & Wanganui...$125,000 will now get you into a 3 bdr property. Both these towns have been punching well above their weight for some time...finally getting back to some normality.
I have four rentals in Wanganui ... all are cashflow positive assuming 90% gearing and 6.00% interest rates. Local Govt rates are high , something to beware of. ( I was looking at a property in One Tree Hill the other day CV $530,000 ... rates are lower than one of my rentals in Wanganui with a CV of $150,000 ! )
ANZ have upped their 3yr rate to 6.75% this morning ... going in yesterday will save me $5814 over the next three years !!
ANZ's 5Yr rate is now 7.50% ... OUCH !!! ( and National Bank, TSB )
SBS Bank still at 6.69% 5Yr, won't last, get in TODAY !!
Well that’s good news. Since I already have a mortgage its nice to know I’ll get a 7.50% net return on any excess cash I have – I’ll just stick it on the mortgage and decrease my loan amount which reduces my interest payments. 7.5% - can’t be too many places that will give me that as a net return!.
WOW!! ....
Auckland housing market out of hibernation, Barfoot & Thompson says (corrected)
April 3rd, 2009
Auckland’s largest real estate agency group, Barfoot and Thompson, has reported sales volumes jumped in March to a 20 month high as buyers “returned with a vengeance” and sellers accepted a slight fall in prices to clear the market.
“Certainly in March, the Auckland housing market emerged from its hibernation,” Barfoot and Thompson Managing Director Peter Thompson said in a statement titled ‘Buyers return to Auckland housing market with vengeance.’
Barfoot’s average sale price in March was NZ$491,780, down 5.8% from March 2008 and down 4.1% from February. It reported 924 sales, up 65.3% from February and up 46.2% from a year ago. The March average was down 8.7% 12.8% from Barfoot’s peak average of NZ$538,478 in December 2007 NZ$564,162 in March 2007.
“We sold close to 300 homes more in March than in any month in the whole of 2008,” Thompson said.
Thompson said factors affecting March’s sales activity were the traditional March spike, further falls in the Reserve Bank OCR, bank mortgage rates reaching new lows and knowledge that tax cuts were about to kick in.
“A recovery of this order is greater than any expectation, and it may well contain an element of released intention,” Thompson said.
“Buyers may be sensing that market prices are close to the bottom of the cycle and have made the decision to act,” he said.
“At the same time sellers are accepting that a price that is on average only 6 percent below values being achieved 12 months ago is realistic in the current market, and are ready to accept.”
“It means that the market is active, and the housing market is edging further back to normality.”
“Another indicator of returning confidence is the level of interest shown at auctions. In March we saw our best attendance numbers for 12 months, and we sold some 65 to 70 percent of all the homes that we put to the market.”
“In February, we reported prices firmed on modest turnover, while this month turnover was extremely strong with prices coming off marginally.”
I spoke to a land agent that made 8 sales in March 09 ( in West Auckland ) for a take home pay packet of $70,000.00 not too bad in a bad market!!!!!!
Here comes the property market boom again. The cycle usually starts with banks lending.
HSBC Plans Loans to Homebuyers With 10% Deposit
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...fg_oI&refer=uk
2nd consecutive month of house sale value increase (up 3% this year) and less time on market and more sales. Sections holding their value at a 10 month high and at the same level as the 07’ peaks.
This is the idiot that was telling everyone a few months back that the property market was going to fall over 30% and now he sudden turns around and tells everyone it is a good time to buy. Hey, guess what, the market have only fallen slightly. What a joke! They are all just a herd of sheep.
As I said before and will say again, the so called "experts" got it wrong the last bubble and they will get it wrong this bubble.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10566201
disclosure: been accumulating a property portfolio in the last few months.
does somebody need some extra real estate advertising revenue
Westpac New Zealand has confirmed a 0.4 percent cut to its 6-month fixed housing lending rate. This brings its 6-month home loan rate to 5.39 percent. The rate will be effective from Friday
The Reserve Bank couldn't have been more explicit to the banks today ... there is no need to have such high long term rates as we will be here ( at 2.50% or lower ) until late next year.
Only 1 rate change so far today ... Westpac 6mth dn 40bps
Why are our banks so slow in reacting to such positive news for mortgage payers !!
Pathetic!!
Thats the "Good News" bit to the shareholders. Id imagine an honest Bank announcement to the market today would go something like this: "Don't worrry: we've got our hands squeezing the balls of the homeowner and he simply ain't squeeling loud enough. And until that noisy RB gnat does something to bite and hurt us we'll keep ignoring it and rake in the profits for you."
Maybe you would like the banks to get all there money from the reserve bank at official cash rates. Then they will have to put your tax rates up to supply them with money.
I track the number of properties listed for sale on TradeMe as a useful tool to get a feel for nationwide trends. Number peaked just under 94,000 earlier this year ... is 91,270 this morning which I would say is the lowest number for a good six/nine months. Still a big number but the trend is certainly down which is good news.
Our from QV today.
The decline in property values has improved for the first time since September 2007, suggesting the housing market freefall could soon be over.
Quotable Value monthly statistics showed national property values decreased 9.2 per cent in the year ending April 30 a slight improvement on the 9.3 per cent reported in March.
QV spokesman Blue Hancock said the April figure was because of a stabilisation in prices paid during the past few months.
Property values in the main centres had flattened, with figures for Wellington, Auckland, Hamilton, Christchurch and Dunedin all improving.
Listings on TradeMe keep falling ... 91,201 this morning , down about 600 from a week ago.
Nice rate cuts from ANZ National last week ... 1Yr fixed at 5.50% looks the go !!
In the past 17 years EVERY April has recorded less sales than the month before. There is about a 15% average drop in April compared with teh previous March.
Seven out of these 17 years has seen a drop off in price from the previous month. It seems we have a very well established trend that sales at this time of year fall away - and we know this is often due to the winter settling of the market where people tend to stay indoors rather than go shopping.
We should expect to see the REINZ report sales down for April 09 to be down as well. If the doom gllom merchants are to be believed I reckon number of sales for April have to be down by at least 20% and price has to be down as well. If number of sales are down less than 15% and if values increase then I think that wil be a very clear pointer that some people have missed the boat - but lets see what comes out in the next few days.
Minimoke, I would have thought you wouldn't post this. Missing the boat? Nahh..lets take a closer look at those two figures stated.
9.3% over the year is 0.78 so circa ~0.80% per month, right?
So, for housing to have stabilized, this 9.3% per year would have to go to 9.3%-0.80%=8.5% to show any stabilization in prices.
Anything above 8.5% would indicate further month on month declines, and anything less would indicate month on month gains. Surely you can establish what has happened in this case!
9.2%>8.5% --> Housing market still not in good shape.
Try telling an average first home buyer who bought 16 months ago, that your sorry for advising them to buy, because they just lost another ~$2500 (0.80%*330,000) on their house this month, as well as around $40k in preceding months!
Not a good news story I'm afraid.
I will admit there are some good signs, however, most notably lack of supply side.
End of story is, house prices are still declining.
They'll bob up and down a bit with the large interest rate reductions. But there is a day of reckoning with these low rates and I can't see Bollard holding them down as long as he indicated. If house prices show a real sign of recovery - he'll pull the pin. Apart from that even though mtge. costs are low, the buyer is still left with a debt that is right out of whack with average incomes. Always better to buy when interest rates are high. I'd rather pay 20% interest on a $200k loan, than 10% on a $400k loan. Remember it's affordability that determines the price - and when one goes down the other goes up. Medium to long term - housing should be seen as a roof over your head, but definitely not as an investment.
We’ve got Hickey and Morgan saying properties will drop by 30 – 40%. Surely its good news that QV reckon the decline in values has pretty much ceased. We’re in Christchurch – isn’t it good news that figures are improving! And Wellington and Auckland (the nations biggest city is also improving – that’s got to be good news. First home owners and investors are coming back to the market – nothing gloomy about that. We know values went up in January, February and March (that’s good news) so It will be interesting to see if April sees increases – we’ll know in a few days so those that bought earlier this year will be smiling. 16 months ago there were around 7,800 buyers., This year there has been around 20,000 happy buyers – that’s good news.
25% in real terms is my expectation. 30% isnt far off from that. We already have what? Must be greater than 15% in real terms now huh?
Declines ceased? I just showed you proof they havent!
It depends by what you mean improving? My house dropped in value last month, but by not as much as the month before. Is this good news? No, it restricts peoples ability to borrow more, as the underlying (house) isnt as much security as now.
Homeowners and investors are coming back to the market. Unfortunately, theres not enough cash in NZ savings to fund all this. The next marginal % of interest rates are coming from overseas. Imagine if we get a credit down grade. National is in between a rock and a hard place, dont want to cut services (reduce govt spending), but if they dont, then add another 100-150 basis points onto our cost of borrowing (quoting ireland here).
I dont know that they did go up in Jan, Feb, March. According to REINZ they did?...but i look at QV, so does the RBNZ, so do most economists. I'll have to check it out. According to QV they still declined in April, as shown in my last post.
Happy buyers is a bit of generalization. I bet there will be some regretting it!
There is still a lot of risks to the domestic economy, but also upside. Time will tell. I'm sitting tight (because I have to) but even if I had a job, I wouldnt be buying at this minute.
Since this is the Good News thread I'd prefer not to get into a debate which introduces doom and gloom (though more than happy to debate on other threads) so lets just take a more positive view direct from QV" "Recent stabilisation of property values in many areas suggests that we may be near the bottom of the market."
Some people like to live on Fantasy island and still think that the property does not more in cycles.
im not sure how much weight you can put in these numbers but surely the fundementals are still looking dire for the housing market. Sure supply is relatively fixed but demand is based upon many factors none of which are looking positive apart from lower mortgage rates. Facts are that people have less job security, banks are not willing to lend at previous levels higher deposits are required. People who belive otherwise are a bit in lala land i would not trust the REINZ comments and opinions as far as i could throw them and QV are sure putting a spin on their figures. Sure the housing market has fallen and the media will try and say the worst is over but buyer beware.
REINZ figures just out: Another 1.5% increase this month in value and sales dropped back only 7.2% on the previous month – when historically April sales drop back 15% from March sales. We are now looking at a 4.6% increase in values this year the third consecutive month of increased values.
The REINZ do not report values. They report the median sale price which naturally enough has risen because banks have tightened lending policies, and that's clobbered the first home/lower priced sales. With low sales numbers in the low price range the median will rise regardless of the average.
in the meantime, the govt gets deeper into the red, and as the deficict balloons, cost cuts will come into play.......... one of the cost cuts will be the exorbandant cash thrown at the housing suppliment payouts given to benifisharies and low income workers to pay high rents on investment property rentals.
once the housing suppliment gets reduced, house prices will continue to fall, as they should, as they are still expensive for "medium" wage earners to afford, compared to the "average" wage earner.
there is some $15000 to $18000 difference between a medium wage earner and an average wage earner, and most kiwis fall into the medium bracket.
IMHO a $15hr factory worker should be able to buy/rent a house close to his factory without relying on the state to pay for his accomodation............
Nobody publishes values, although when it suits the REINZ put that spin on the median.
As far as I'm aware the REINZ have only publishlished the median for the last ten to fifteen years, and QV only publish the average. But regardless neither the median or the average have got anything to do with value. Both median and average can be rising while values are falling, and vice versa.
Is value not the agreed price between a willing buyer and a willing seller. REINZ has 17 years of data - of which they gernally report the median. But you can extraoplate an average if you want. What we are seein g with REINZ is a reversal of a trend and begingin to see it with QVs trailing three month average. What I don't understand is how the doom gloom people happily accept QV and REINZ data when the trend is falling but quiter on the reversal.. We've now got Hickey coming out saying the develuations wil occur in a non-linear manner
Yes - value is the price between two willing parties. You cannot work out the average from the median, and neither the average or median tells you the increase or decrease in value. If all properties fall in value by say 20%, and the low end stops or slows (as it will when values fall) then the median will rise, the average will probably rise and your money will buy a better property than it would have previously because values have fallen. An extremely good indication of what the market is doing is to look at the number of properties on the market that are sticking. That's another thing that is distorted with 'days on market' quoted by the REINZ. It only relates to days on market of the ones that actually sell; even then those figures are often rubbish, because there is no way of checking each agents returns as far as days on market are concerned. At the moment there are heaps of unsold properties throughout the country. There are huge numbers of properties that have been withdrawn waiting for better times. The market is still depressed.
One of the other things why I like the REINZ data is that it does give me averages as well as the median. Granted, it doesn’t give me days on market before properties are pulled – but I’m not aware of any data source that does. Nor I am I aware of any data source that ever has – so there is little point in looking at this data if it doesn’t exist in any meaningful way. Even though you may not like the “days on market” data – at least it is data from which we can draw conclusions.
So the good news, for those that prefer “Average“ data is that April figure averages are the highest they have been in 10 months and there has been month on month increase since a low was hit in Jan ‘09. Since then values have risen $22.5k or 6.1%. Values off the Nov 07 high show a drop of $24k of 5.7% nowhere near the 30% or 40% the doom gloom people have been banging about for the past few years. If we want to use Shrewdy’s price point from the other thread he would have seen a 5.1% increase in value or $19k.
For properties to sell they have to be made available to the market. We can see that compared with the same time last year there was a 39.5% increase in the number of sales and one of the highest selling months in the past 17 months. Days on market may not be a preferred indicator but they did drop 4.5% compared with the same period last year and the fastest turn around in the past 12 months. And thats all got to be good news.
You are confusing sale price which is the reported figure, with value. They are the same when analysing only one sale, but when looking at the whole market it tells you absolutely nothing about value. What you should ask is will xyz property sell for the same price? more? less? than it did 12 - 24 months ago. Generally prices are weaker, so while the median has risen in many areas your money will now buy you a better property than it would have. The dungers which were fetching good money during the hot market are now difficult to sell and there is more activity further up the price ladder, so average and median rise - value falls.
No – I’m aware of the limitations of the data. But a bigger problem is taking hard data (like the sale price of a single property 12 months ago) and then trying to come up with a “valuation” of that property today. A valuer can put a whole pile of variables into the mix and come up with a number – but is by no means assured that the number he comes up with is what the property will sell for given there is actually a willing buyer and seller. Indeed most valuers will not give an absolute value – they will give a range.
The other problem we have is the number of housing stock that turns over within in a 12 month period. As a nation we don’t turn our properties over every 12 months so it is near on impossible to come up with those sorts of comparisons. And it would be a long bow to draw to say, where there are examples of a single property tuning over in 12 months, that this could be extrapolated to the whole market.
A final problem we have is that we don’t have the whole data set. I don’t know where the properties were selling in say $5k bands so I can’t make comparisons of say sales in the $300 - $305k band. If someone has that data and can add to the thread then that would be great. Other wise we are talking around figures we simply don’t have.
I guess my main point is that in times of a declining market the doom gloom people have been happy to point to the QV and REINZ data to support their position. If that’s the case they should be able to use the same data and come up with a view. Except they are not because the data isn’t telling them the story they want to tell. And lets not forget in the boom times it was the QV and REINZ data that people looked at to tell stories of a fantastic property market.
I don't look at any of the stuff you do Mini BUT what I have done for my area is keep all the reality mags for years and that gives me all the info you say is not available and believe me there are lots that have been on for years and in that time have only been going one way DOWN,one's that have been pulled and put back on as new listings,or just pulled,all the price reductions from 20-50%,basically all the dirty tricks they do I can see.
So NOTHING to do with doom and gloom,just not in denial as some are,so all GOOD news and NO rush to buy for now,will leave you to talk yourself out of what I have just said.
Cheers
miner
From todays news:
With both volume and median sale price of houses changing this month, economists are saying the property market - a leading indicator of the whole New Zealand economy - is slowly improving. T his slow turn-around was the market responding to the very low interest rates being offered, Deutsche Bank spokesman Darren Gibbs said.
However, he wondered if the recovery would progress further in 2009, given the general weakness of the rest of the economy -- though the bank was expecting a five percent month-on-month rise for May, he said.
Also, the sales figures hinted at a possible imminent construction boom, he said.
"When NZ was last turning over 6500 houses per month, new construction was running at 24,000 consents annualised, versus 12,000 currently," he said.
The rebounding activity strengthened Goldman Sachs's opinion domestic demand will increase through the second half of 2009, he said.
House sales continued to be strongest in the under $400,000 price bracket, accounting for nearly 4000 of the total April sales
Dang - that will surely make previous period comparrisons harder won't it!. At least with REINZ data you can see the median and work out the averages. I'd imagine with the slow down in property sales Real Estate agents are probably conducting more of the proerty sales than in the peak of the cycle when there might have been more private sale and off market transactions. I reckon their figures are fine - as long as they are used knowing their limitations. Hopefully QV will publish and make accessible the depth of data REINZ does - that might make things more intersting!.
Funguspudding - unless maths has changed recently I thought that if you took total $ value sales and divided by the number of sales you'de come up with average sale price. So if I have total sales of $2,451,424,305 and 6,210 sales I end up with an average of $394,754. Doesn't mean to say the mean still can't be $340,000. When you come to correting my math (which I welcome as I'm always ready to learn) would you mind using a larger font because the bolding just doesn't do it for me.
Real estate firm Barfoot & Thompson says May saw its best month's trading in more than two years in the Auckland housing market.
Barfoot, which handles around one third of home sales in Auckland, sold 814 homes in May, 1 percent higher than sales in April, and 58.1 percent higher than in May last year.
Managing director Peter Thompson said May was the best month's trading in more than two years in terms of achieving both high volume and high prices. However, he said there were a low number of homes available for sale.
"It was also the third consecutive month when we sold more than 800 homes, a target we never achieved once last year," he added.
Barfoot said the average sale price for a home was $533,909 in May, a 12-month high. This was a 6.2 percent increase from the average April 2009 price and essentially level with prices in May last year.
He said there was a noticeable increase in demand for homes in more established suburbs and it added up to a housing market that was "active, confident and stable."
In news today from QV.
The residential property market showed "considerable improvement" in May as values stabilised, latest figures from QV Valuations show.
That was a considerable improvement on the 9.2 percent decline reported for the year to April, and was the second month in a row where the year-on-year change had improved, QV said.
This improvement is due to continued stabilisation of property values in recent months, and contrasts significantly to a market that was declining sharply 12 months ago."
The QV figures support recent upbeat reports from the real estate industry.
QV spokeswoman Glenda Whitehead said established investors were now back in the market, along with first home buyers and those looking to upgrade.
Property values in all main centres increased slightly in recent months.
More from B and T this month:
The latest housing data out of Auckland shows a strong comeback in June, suggesting a pick up in residential construction is just around the corner according to an economist.
Sales and price data released by Barfoot & Thompson today showed 861 houses were sold by the company, which makes about a third of Auckland residential property sales, in June. This was an increase of 5.8 percent over May and a 54.9 percent increase on sales in June last year.
June is typically one of the slowest months for real estate, but recent months have bucked traditional trends.
GoldmanSachs JBWere strategist Bernard Doyle said the bounce in Auckland house sales bodes well for nationwide activity and suggested a better future for construction.
"It supports our view that weaker sales volumes in May were likely reflective of month to month volatility than anything fundamental," he said.
"That said, the near vertical trajectory in house sales activity must begin to level off soon. Either way, for the construction sector, today's data reinforces our view that residential construction activity is due for an imminent pick-up from multi-decade lows," he added.
Barfoot managing director Peter Thompson said the Auckland housing market had made a remarkable recovery from the challenges of the past 18 months.
"It's hard to dismiss the robust sales of recent months as a temporary reprieve in the ongoing decline of housing values," said Thompson.
"The strength of the Auckland housing market can be added to the list of 'green shoots' indicating that the economy in general, and people's confidence, is starting to stabilise."
Thompson said the biggest challenge facing the company was obtaining new listings, saying at the end of June its total listings had fallen to 5557, the lowest level for the past 20 months.
From todays news:
Latest figures from Quotable Value show houses around New Zealand grew in value by an average of 0.4 per cent during the last quarter.
The average sale price rose to $378,535 in June, about $7000 higher than the May average.
Property values increased in most cities around the country during the last quarter.
Property investors and first- home buyers able to meet high deposit requirements are getting back into the market, with sales up 50 per cent on a year ago and real estate agents short of listings of cheaper properties.
Theres a surprise. He reckons property values aren't going to fall 30% after all. He's retracting that view today and is going for a 15% fall off the Nov 07 high.
QV figures show no such thing, in spite of what they say. They record sales prices and report an avarage. The real estate institute record the median and report that. Neither of them record value. It is quite possible for average and/or median sales prices to be rising , while values are actually falling; and vice versa. There will always be a rise in averages after an interest rate reduction. Interest rates and property prices are opposite ends of a see-saw. The question is will your money buy the same house as it would 18 months ago, or would it buy a better one? I think first time buyers, or cheaper homes have slowed up as a result of bank lending policies. That causes a rise in the average, but can also decrease value.
Be that as it may, the QV figures are widely regarded as a sytamtent of "Value". Provided they keep the same formula for calculating this "value" we can at least measure the trends over time - and what QV are saying, it appears, is that the market has bottomed and values / prices are on their way up.
And here he is reckoning the trough won't be reached for many years -assuring himself an income from spruiking his opinions for a while yet.
http://www.3news.co.nz/Video/Michael...ult.aspx#video
But heres the good news. These commentators keep reckoning on a fall from the market highs in Nov 07. Soon they'll change tack.
Its now time to start talking about the increases since the market bottomed out - which we can probably take as September '08 - since 50,000 approx buyers have come to the market since then. Back then the median was $330,000 and the average $382,800. Lets talk about the 2.3% increase in median or the 3.6% increase in average. Both equally valid numbers, IMO, if we are going to continue letting Bernard fill our airwaves with his neagative views.
November 07 is now just becoming a data point in time - but no longer a decent reference point. Who'se to say tehe was ever any validity in that date anyway - it could well have been that market prices overshot values. Lets at least start providing some balance and put up some other reference points!.
In a sign the market has surely passed the bootomed out stage banks are now relaxing their 20% deposit critera. Westapc are now looking at borowers with less than 20% - perhaps lending now to selected borrowers up to 90% of a home loan
Another 0.7% INCREASE in REINZ sale price during the month of June bringing the figure to $340,000 with median days on market DOWN to 41 days.
Average sale price is now UP 3.3% to $395,547 from the September 08 lows 0f $382,808.
All this during winter in a recession!