...coming soon! Just setting up the thread!
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...coming soon! Just setting up the thread!
And here we go again! Make your claim on picking the stocks to watch in 2021.
We are running things a bit differently this year courtesy of the NZ Shareholders Association and the team at Sharesight. Essentially, that should mean a much 'slicker' front end to go and view your results and rankings. Because of the Sharesight link, the form asks you to submit your first name, surname and email address. Please note that this will NOT form a part of any marketing to you (unless you give us express permission to be notified of any future Investment or Trading games)
Get your picks in by DECEMBER 18TH to be counted as part of the "Retail investor Top 5" picks that will be published in the NZ Herald, along with the broker picks.
The rules are similar to 2020, although 'Cash' has been removed as an option.
Feel free to circulate this widely - we had a good range of entries this year, and would be great to see that grow further.
Rules:
1) Pick FIVE different NZX-listed equity instruments (incl. Smartshares and foreign companies listed in NZ).
- Companies/Funds with a market cap of less than $10m may not be selected.
2) Please also make a SIXTH pick - this will be used as a 'backup preference' should one of your picks delist or merge during the year. It won't cover companies that are placed in liquidation or dissolved.
3) Each pick has an equal weighting. You cannot pick the same option more than once.
4) Picks in by 7pm January 3rd 2020 (New Zealand time); ie, prior to trading opening.
Returns calculations
1) Each will start with a notional portfolio of $10,000
2) Returns will be calculate from the last closing price of 2020 (Dec 31st 2020) to the last closing price of 2021.
3) Its a 'total return' comp, so Dividends will be included - but NOT benefits from imputation credits or other tax-specific benefits.
4) Rights issues are included according to a formula that does not increase capital, but recognises a capital gain/loss on the rights for the year. We may have to do this manually, but will cross that bridge when we come to it.
5) If a selection delists or otherwise somehow dissolves; it will be kept but manually adjusted in your selections to reflect the realised situation resulting from the event causing this. The realisation will then be "re-invested" in your backup preference (see 2), allowing the opportunity to continue participation on a level playing field.
6) Winner is the person who has the largest %age increase.
Entry via this survey form: Picks Form
I won't publish what people are picking before Dec 31st.
If there is a stock missing from the picklist on the survey form - let me know and I will sort it quickly!
Happy Christmas / New Year everyone...and happy picking.
Oliver
Thanks for setting this up again Oliver. Much appreciated.
Just one concern/suggestion. I note that our ST identity (ie Left Field, Sylvester Cat or whatever) is no longer applicable, but instead we will have some generated number allocated to us and will 'compete' anonymously????
If I'm right, this seems a shame as sharing knowledge of who picked what and being able to compare ourselves against brokers (and each others) was part of the fun and learning.
Can't we opt to select our own name rather than have a random anonymous number allocated to our entry?
JMHO...... and hopefully I've misunderstood things.
I'm 765374.
No. I'm 765374.
And I'm 765374...............
Looking forward to a better result than my poor one this year.
Thanks for all your work Oliver.
Rupert Bear has done very well :-).
OK, will add a 'nom de plume' field to the form just in case...but not sure if I can get it to work on the front end of the new site (it is out of my hands...).
The good news is that the platform will allow us to do multiple thing like this - and hopefully spread the love and learning more effectively than my mere excel spreadsheets can!
If you've already submitted and would like a nom de plume, I'll email you back to check whether you want one added in.
Thanks Oliver..... onwards and upwards! :t_up:
Thank you Oliver.
I enjoy this comp. My picks are all submitted for next year. Look forward to seeing how we'll they perform and everyone else's picks
Hi Oliver,
Thanks for doing this again. Could you please add BOT on the NZX to the list ?
Thanks for doing this again Oliver, much appreciated :)
Many thanks Oliver - always fun :t_up:
Hey, It wont let me continue and gives an error 'The maximum number of people have already responded to this form.'
Hello, would you please add LIV (Smartshares) to the list of stocks available.
Thanks very much.
Sorry all - we should be back up now!! Not quite sure what happened there...
Merry Christmas everyone!!!
Broker Picks;
Forsyth Barr,...Hamilton Hindin Greene.......,Hobson Wealth....Sharetrader......Craigs...........MSL... ......Jarden
KMD......................EBO...................... .........RYM...................ATM................ EBO...........AFT.............SPK
GNE.......................MFT..................... ..........SPK....................PEB.............. ..FPH............AIA.............MFT
SPK.......................RYM..................... ..........WHS...................OCA............... MCY............HGH...........EBO
EBO......................SPK...................... ...........ATM...................PLX.............. ..MFT............PX1.............ZEL
SKL.......................ATM..................... ...........SKO....................MFT............. ..RYM............PIL..............TRA.
2020 results.
Forsyth Bar -1.5%..HHG..13.7%.HW 14%..ST 25.2%..Craigs 21.3%..MSL. 21.1%.Jarden.. 15%
When is the final date for entry please? Been busy, only just remembered this competition (oops).
Oliver, thanks for all your good work setting up and running this competition. The number of entries is testament to the enjoyment many receive from some friendly competition.
One point of clarification on the the closing date for the 2021 completion. I note the NZX is closed on 4 January 2021 (being a public holiday). To facilitate as many entries as possible, can you amend the closing time for entries to be 7pm NZT on the 4th rather than the 3rd?
Is RAD an option? Didn't see it on the drop down list.
Awesome, thanks for this.
Last year I really thought hard about my choices. This year I struggled to come up with a list so I put in a punt. Now I will have to analyse it and decide whether to invest some real $$$ in the punt as 1 of the 5 isn’t one I already own
Didn't see NZL drop down.Will they be an option.
S'OK, Winner. I never had to ask, fried egg; and anyone found in the kitchen until they were called got a wet dishcloth round the ears.
Same here, Tango. The difference being one can punt on things without regard to moral principles. Like, whether I want to encourage churches to tax their followers. Pushpay.
The way I see it is that the churchgoers are already going to donate, the app simply facilitates it. Once upon a time push pay had plans to use the app to collect donations from a range of charitable organisations and then decided to settle on churches. I would be more interested in push pay if it widened their pool of customers
Next year pickings is going to be interesting to see how many pick recovery stocks, value stock and growth stocks which the economic tension, vaccinations and potential mutation of COVID-19 to more resistant strains not to mention the dynamics in China at the moment!
https://youtu.be/5al-Fg10U6g
Link to YouTube video for 2021 broker picks and share trader top 5 thus far for those interested.
More than likely winner. . Have tried for 3peat on my picks this year.. Boom or bust.. . Fortunately so far, they beat no resemblance to real portfolio. All the best
I was going to suggest a stock but not $10m
Also - RAD and NZL have now been added...apologies for the oversight.
HAPPY NEW YEAR everyone!
Entry submitted. Thank you once again Oliver for getting NZSA and Sharesight backing you on this game too.
Hi Oliver i put in an enntry for 2021 competition but have not had any communication regards my entry and dont have a link .can you lead me in the right direction,Thanks Southern slim
Hopefully not too late as the NZX is still closed today.
SKT
VGL
KMD
SML
AIR
Discl..The Dogs Of The Dow Theory
If you want to win these things you have to pick a few of the really small companies, capable of huge percentage gains (or losses)
I never do very well as just pick the stocks I actually own.
Last year went WHS EBOS SUM IFT Cash. Which was pretty much my NZ portfolio. They all did well, but I was still way down the list with a 20% gain.
The brokers face similar issues which is why their selections are seen as boring. They tend to pick the stocks they recommend to their clients, which are generally the steady investment stocks.
Agree with ratkin's assessment. Risk / return, plus a longer-term investment outlook affects the overall outcome. Generally, the 'sharetrader' group tends to have a slightly riskier outlook in its picks, although even that is obviated when you 'aggregate' across the herd for the most popular selections.
'Snap' ratkin. Got a 20% return myself in the 2020 competition although without picking 'cash'. That means your share returns were consummately better than mine. So I would say to you, very well done!
Like you I pick representative shares that I actually own. I see no purpose in trying to 'win' the competition because, as you point out, this would generally require extreme risk taking which you can do in a competition because there is no real downside if you get it wrong. But if you just regard the competition as a bit of fun, there is of course nothing wrong with 'playing to win'. I use the competition to track my returns during the year, and that it does for me very well.
SNOOPY
What is this entry trying to tell us?
599031 STU,STU,STU,STU,STU,STU
I have been a "buzz hunter" all my adult life, but the risks I take are (almost) all calculated ones. All my picks every year are shares that I actually hold in my portfolio of 8. In 2020 I got lucky.
For 2021, I think OCA is likely to better than SUM, and SKL and HGH (my other two holdings) also seem unlikely to rocket away from their currently gratifyingly high prices. We shall see!
GLTAH
Are all entries publicly available somewhere?
Thanks for setting this up. Some quick and dirty stats:
352 entrants
125 unique stock picks
Top 5 picks:
- ATM 137 including 12 as backup
- OCA 117 including 8 as backup
- PEB 92 including 5 as backup
- PX1 82 including 8 as backup
- MFT 77 including 10 as a backup
Top 5 make up 24% of all picks, top 10 is 39%, top 15 48%, top 20 55% and top 25 is 61%. We aren't quite getting the 80/20 Pareto principle given 25 is 20% of 125 unique stocks picked.
New listings did not fare well:
- RUA 2 picks
- HMY 7 picks (ranked 74th equal)
- NZL and RAD each had 1 pick
Top 10 entities by market capitalisation did not fare well either, other than ATM and FPH which made the top 10:
- WBC ranked 35th with 17 picks
- ANZ 36th= with 16
- TLS 111st= (1 pick)
- MEL 54th= with 11
- FPH 10th with 58
- AIA 18th= with 31
- AFI = nil
- MCY 46th= with 13
- ATM 1st with 137
- SPK 21st= with 28
- FCT = nil
- RYM 21st= with 28
That is 12 but I added 2 given AFI and FCT have zero picks.
Most popular of the 2020 underperformers:
- SKT with 60 picks (ranked 9th)
- SML & VGL 24 picks each
- KMD 22 picks
- GTK 12 picks
email came from sharesight.
Great set up thanks Oliver, works really well :)
Hmmm - I didn't receive an email from Sharesight and I see others have said the same. Hopefully all those who entered will receive a link over the next couple of days. Probably a massive task to collate everything.
Excellent. Works really well.
I registered before the facility to have a moniker was available.
How can I do that now?
My no is 598958 (which is a very nice number) and I'd like that to be TideMan.
Just set up the Sharesight link. That's a neat little addition Oliver. Thank you.
I haven't entered (due to a lack of recent focus on NZX stocks) but would be keen to see the picks if that's possible please??? (to guide to some NZX stocks to look into)
list of picks ranked by popularity would be interesting, cheers
Thanks winner Here is the full list. Picks is total picks 1 to 6. Backups is the number of times that stock code was pick #6.
Code Picks BackUps Rank ATM 137 12 1 OCA 117 8 2 PEB 92 5 3 PX1 82 8 4 MFT 77 10 5 HGH 70 10 6 EBO 66 12 7 IFT 64 10 8 SKT 60 3 9 FPH 58 6 10 AIR 43 14 11 HLG 38 8 12 STU 35 4 13 ZEL 35 8 13 PPH 33 4 15 FBU 32 7 16 IKE 32 3 16 AIA 31 6 18 ARV 31 7 18 SKO 30 6 20 BLT 28 7 21 RYM 28 3 21 SPK 28 8 21 AFT 26 11 24 KPG 25 5 25 ERD 24 4 26 SML 24 5 26 VGL 24 3 26 FRE 22 3 29 KMD 22 6 29 THL 22 6 29 APL 20 1 32 SUM 19 4 33 TWR 19 3 33 WBC 17 4 35 ANZ 16 7 36 CVT 16 2 36 SAN 16 3 36 SKC 16 2 36 GNE 15 7 40 MPG 15 3 40 NZO 15 1 40 POT 15 5 40 SKL 15 8 40 CDI 14 3 45 ALF 13 2 46 MCY 13 3 46 EVO 12 2 48 GTK 12 1 48 MCK 12 2 48 RAK 12 1 48 TLT 12 2 48 WHS 12 2 48 MEL 11 2 54 SCL 11 4 54 TRU 11 0 54 WDT 11 0 54 ARB 10 2 58 BRM 10 2 58 MHJ 10 1 58 NWF 10 2 58 SCT 10 2 58 BOT 9 0 63 CAV 9 1 63 CEN 9 2 63 MLN 9 2 63 BGP 8 2 67 CBD 8 2 67 CNU 8 1 67 FNZ 8 4 67 NZR 8 1 67 TRA 8 4 67 VTL 8 1 67 ARG 7 1 74 GEN 7 0 74 HMY 7 0 74 NTL 7 1 74 GXH 6 1 78 MEE 6 1 78 PGW 6 1 78 TLL 6 2 78 DGL 5 4 82 FSF 5 2 82 MOA 5 0 82 NPH 5 2 82 NZX 5 1 82 QEX 5 0 82 SPY 5 0 82 MMH 4 0 89 RBD 4 1 89 SDL 4 0 89 SEK 4 1 89 TNZ 4 1 89 AMP 3 2 94 DIV 3 2 94 JLG 3 1 94 MHM 3 0 94 NZK 3 1 94 PIL 3 1 94 PYS 3 1 94 USG 3 1 94 ASF 2 1 102 ENS 2 0 102 FWL 2 0 102 OZY 2 1 102 PFI 2 0 102 PLX 2 2 102 RUA 2 0 102 TWF 2 0 102 USF 2 0 102 AGL 1 0 111 CGF 1 0 111 CMO 1 1 111 FCG 1 1 111 KFL 1 1 111 MDZ 1 0 111 MZY 1 0 111 NPF 1 0 111 NZL 1 0 111 NZM 1 0 111 PCT 1 0 111 RAD 1 0 111 SPN 1 0 111 TLS 1 1 111 VCT 1 1 111
If anyone is interested, here is the VBA code used to analyse the data published for the competition and to output the picks into a list.
Code:Option Explicit
Dim MyPicks(500) As MyStock 'Export array for all picks
Dim StkCount As Long 'Counter to record number of unique picks
Sub GetStats()
Dim LC As Long 'Loop
Dim AllPicks() As Variant 'Import array
AllPicks = ThisWorkbook.Sheets("Sheet1").Range("B2:B353").Value
StkCount = 1
MyPicks(1).Code = Left$(AllPicks(1, 1), 3)
For LC = 1 To 352
Call ProcessPick(Left$(AllPicks(LC, 1), 3))
Call ProcessPick(Mid$(AllPicks(LC, 1), 5, 3))
Call ProcessPick(Mid$(AllPicks(LC, 1), 9, 3))
Call ProcessPick(Mid$(AllPicks(LC, 1), 13, 3))
Call ProcessPick(Mid$(AllPicks(LC, 1), 17, 3))
Call ProcessPick(Right$(AllPicks(LC, 1), 3), True)
Next LC
With ThisWorkbook.Sheets("Sheet2")
For LC = 1 To StkCount
.Range("A" & LC).Value = MyPicks(LC).Code
.Range("B" & LC).Value = MyPicks(LC).Count
.Range("C" & LC).Value = MyPicks(LC).BackUp
Next LC
End With
MsgBox "Finished processing picks", vbInformation, "Done"
End Sub
Sub ProcessPick(NewPick As String, Optional IsBackUp As Boolean)
Dim NewStk As Long
NewStk = CheckNew(NewPick)
If NewStk = 0 Then
StkCount = StkCount + 1
MyPicks(StkCount).Code = NewPick
MyPicks(StkCount).Count = 1
NewStk = StkCount
Else
MyPicks(NewStk).Count = MyPicks(NewStk).Count + 1
End If
If IsBackUp Then MyPicks(NewStk).BackUp = MyPicks(NewStk).BackUp + 1
End Sub
Function CheckNew(CodeToCheck As String) As Long
Dim IL As Long
CheckNew = 0
For IL = 1 To StkCount
If MyPicks(IL).Code = CodeToCheck Then
CheckNew = IL
Exit For
End If
Next IL
End Function
Also in a separate module:
Option Explicit
Public Type MyStock
Code As String
Count As Long
BackUp As Long
End Type
STU,STU,STU,STU,STU,STU
A little nest egg treat. I like it.
I got the full dataset from the link I was provided that shows my placing. If you are entered into the competition, then you should have an e-mail with the link. If you are going to use the code, then it goes into the Workbook VBA section and the last part goes into a new module in the same spreadsheet. Since I did this a couple more entries have entered. Be aware that I hard coded 352 and 353 into 2 places in the first macro which you will need to amend if there are more than 352 entries. Copy and paste the web data into Sheet1 in Excel. Make sure the picks are in column B and make sure Sheet 2 exists.
I picked RAK which is not a share I currently own but I am beginning to wish I had bought it when I made my entry!
Could we please see a list of who picked what? (even if we're not contestants)? I find that really interesting and useful :)
That's kind thank you. Take your time :)
Punters' picks: Retail investors select their hot stocks for 2021 - NZ Herald
Also - as per DarkHorse request, here is a link to a spready showing the picks, along with a pareto curve showing the most popular. Note that I've excluded the 'backup' from this...
https://1drv.ms/x/s!AuUMI8ycnlsfh5F1...oEKYg?e=pQ8mhU
Attachment 12251
Thanks Oliver. The article is behind a paywall. Is there a full transcript of that article? I presume given we are the subject of that article it would be ok to copy > paste it into here?
Not sure the Herald would see it that way - is copyright to them (even if I wrote it).
The bones of the analysis are all in the spreadsheet above - one of the things in the article is the relative consistency of retail investor selections over 4 years, and it also highlights the picks of the individuals that topped the 2020 comp.
Entire article on content from this site and they couldn't even give one lousy backlink. Is that NZH editorial policy?
With NWF being on a fantastic run up, its no suprises to see the Top 5 players all holding NWF.
Position Portfolio Picks Cash Balance Unpaid Dividends Total Value 1 Dassets NWF,WDT,WBC,SPY,STU,ANZ 0 - 12,143.24 2 gbogo NWF,MPG,IKE,SPY,TRU,SCT 0 - 11,805.50 3 Haewai ARB,CAV,NWF,SKT,WDT,GTK 0 - 11,553.69 4 Jantar NWF,HLG,GNE,OCA,HGH,SKL 0 - 11,551.43 5 Norwest ZEL,TWR,SKT,NWF,STU,OCA 0 - 10,956.70 6 Keerti OCA,HGH,HLG,MDZ,SKT,FNZ 0 - 10,798.21 7 Beagle HGH,HLG,OCA,TRA,ARV,GNE 23.93 - 10,774.21 8 Dlownz SKT,OCA,ZEL,WDT,GNE,PYS 0 - 10,754.49 9 Southernslim HGH,AIA,HLG,OCA,SKT,AIR 0 - 10,737.16 10 601433 FRE,OCA,FBU,EBO,CNU,SCL 0 - 10,729.37
I notice that after 7 weeks, the top 5 picks have DROPPED in price by an average of about 8% since the 1st of January.
The first five of the bottom picks (AGL, CGF, CMO, FCG, KFL) have GONE UP by an average of more than 4%.
Interesting that NZX50 has dropped by 5.1% so far this year but 250 odd out of 360 are better than the market. I found when I was a fund manager that it actually came down to people. You can out-perform passive in NZ(and elsewhere IMO). The bulk of the studies do not serve NZ market well. However the gatekeepers like to believe the consultants because the gatekeepers generally have no clue and want to be able to defend either themselves or their distribution channels.
Interesting portfolio at the top of the table:
Attachment 12485
The nz herald headline reads "What makes women better investors than men"
Paywalled:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-...ectid=12441165
My immediate instinct was 'yeah sure!... sexist'. I have not read the article yet so dont know whats their reasoning.
Sorry this is off-topic, but I thought as you all are competing for the best return you will have insight on this. Girls will beat the boys?
Now 225/360 still outperforming market, this is going to be interesting, you could almost make a study out of this. There have always been suspicions that in the NZ market you can outperform index funds which isn't(or at least from my out of date study) the international research conclusion. HINT HINT to any money and finance undergrads or postgrads might be a decent ready made study right here.
wouldn’t surprise me, there is little decent media coverage of many stocks (outside the large caps) listed on NZX, and large amount of investors take a long time (if ever) to become aware of relevant developments. As such it often takes days/weeks for significant fundamental changes in listed businesses to be fully priced in to share prices (sometimes even it’s months until the earnings release).
bit of an update up there now - 6 month review!
will be more regular for the second half of the year...
I can not remember where to find the competition.?
Hey Percy,
I got a personalized link to the sharesight competition sent to me on 5 January 2021 so check your inbox on that date and hit the link and it should take you to the competition and highlight your current position. You're currently 67th out of 360...top quartile position, you're doing well and I would has at a guess much better in your real portfolio ;)