Part of the demerger of TPW - TrustPower and due to start trading on 28-Oct-16.
Whoever named it Tilt has as wry a sense of humour as myself. :)
Very funny indeed.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Printable View
Part of the demerger of TPW - TrustPower and due to start trading on 28-Oct-16.
Whoever named it Tilt has as wry a sense of humour as myself. :)
Very funny indeed.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
I have on a per share basis:
Net Tangibles : $1.29;
Free cash Flow : $0.22;
Profit: $0.057.
and some new windmills to stick in the ground over the next few years.
http://www.freedigitalphotos.net/ima...s-10058441.jpg
But my information is a little sparse.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Tilt get a mention in "under the radar", thanks silu
http://www.genexpower.com.au/uploads/6/6/1/2/6612684/under_the_radar_report_-_20.04.17.pdf
dej & JT. Looks like great minds think alike. I'm looking at Tilt and PEA.ASX (Pacific Energy) at the moment before work sucks me back in. On first look PEA looks like a good little bet.
Lack of wind in Australia!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-2...ction=business
Implications for TLT and therefore IFT?
Update today - lower wind volumes in nz and Australia - ebitdaf down $10-12 million
I see Paul's buying up today, must be a good sign.
Expecting some positives on this stock shortly.
Positives will be coming but what are you expecting shortly?
Pleased to see the drop in TLT share price, especially in view of positive news for the future. May buy soon.
http://www.standard.net.au/story/514...ms-on-the-way/
Should hear about the Dundonnell wind farm investment soon...
"The Group’s development activity is being prioritised
on progressing the Dundonnell Wind Farm (~ 300 MW)
for an investment decision in early CY18. Now that
the Victorian Renewable Energy Target legislation
has passed through the Victorian State Parliament,
the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme
to contract for 650 MW of renewable energy has
commenced and final bids are due on 14 February
2018. It is expected that Dundonnell Wind Farm
will be a competitive project in this process but it is
acknowledged that the competition for contracts is
likely to be strong."
I do not know enough about this space to have an opinion on their deservedness of this contract.
Big opportunity nonetheless.
One of the only growth plays in a somewhat boring yield centric industry.
higher risk investment for sure as debt will most certainly be a necessity.
Dividends will be an afterthought as well with TLT until we see them develop their hearts out.
I do not see the market pricing in 1/4 of these developments.
market cap of 625m TLT CURRENT WIND SOLAR Tararua Stage 1,2,3 - NZ 161 MW nil Mahinerangi Stage 1 - NZ 36 MW nil Snowtown Stage 1,2 - AUS 371 MW nil Blayney - AUS 10 MW nil Crookwell - AUS 5 MW nil Total 583 MW nil PIPELINE CAPACITY WIND SOLAR Dundonnell - AUS 350 MW nil Salt Creek - AUS 54 MW nil Palmer - AUS 375 MW nil Kaiwera Downs - NZ 240 MW nil Mahinerangi Stage 2 - NZ 160 MW nil Rye Park - AUS 327 MW nil Waverly - NZ 130 MW nil Waddi - AUS 105 MW 40 MW Western Downs - AUS nil 250 MW Snowtown North - AUS nil 50 MW Dysart - AUS nil 100 MW Total 1741 MW 440 MW
Fairly material contract leading into 2030 with 100% contracted revenues ex Merdian for Salt Creek.
Forecasted average annual contribution up to 2021. ( assumptions of uncontracted revenues were 15-20% PA - ( not anymore ) )
Revenues AUDm 21 - 25
Op Costs AUDm 4.6 - 4.7
EBITDAF AUDm 16 - 20
Forecast source - https://www.tiltrenewables.com/docum...ntDecision.pdf
Markets cold shoulder can only last so long
This being the smallest of the incoming developments...
Think of the annual contributions from sites with 7 times the production of Salt Creek.
Big overhang from TECT's stake for now.
If the TECT giveaway proceeds, the cash required could be gained entirely from selling their share in Tilt, since its hardly a strategic stake for the trust.
Assuming Dundonnell goes ahead, tilt will need capital from its shareholders with IFT indicating it’ll do so (not surprising given their cash position). It’ll be interesting what this’ll mean for the trust, does anyone have any idea what this’ll translate to on a per share basis?
TECT owns (27%) of TLT = 83,878,838/312,973,000
1000GWh has been proposed for Dundonnell at a cost of A650,000,000
Obviously this massive project will be split into two-three stages.
Financials of the project should be coming soon "Mid 2018" with construction in "late 2018"
https://www.tiltrenewables.com/docum...r_Dec_2017.pdf
- I only just realised this does not answer your question.
"In support of its VREAS bid, Tilt Renewables has obtained equityfunding support from Infratil (TLT’s largest shareholder)comprising a conditional agreement by Infratil to offer tounderwrite 100% of an equity raising of A$300m for Dundonnell"
So does this mean there'll be any rights issue for shareholders?
time to whistle for some wind ?
Lack of wind or wrong type of wind, hopeful for a good tailwind for the Aussie bid, could take off... decision should be soon
the lack of wind in NZ and some anomaly in the Australian system all meant ill in the last quarter
- blowing nobody good.
I had a bit of a look under the notion of SRI but couldnt see much to attract me quite frankly.
Chart looks weak.
result goes to show they need to build scale in solar and batteries as well as wind to smooth the revenues, wont be so lumpy then
Mercury acquires stake in Tilt Renewables Limited
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/317881
removes the overhang in shares and brings a better deep pocketed investor onboard ... very positive announcement
With Mercury joining Infratil this looks promising, one of my stock picks at beginning of year...yay
And 19.9% would be the maximum that Mercury will get as per NBR today saying IFT is unlikely to approve Mercury moving beyond 20% on TLT https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/%E2%80...ys-th-p-215581 Made sense for IFT holders.
A month before schedule on a smaller project like salt creek and an implied bump to the lower level of that 120-127 EBITDAF guidance...
Looking forward to the next couple years of tilt.
TPower is valued at $1,800M and set to deliver FY19F EBITDAF of $205-220M
Mercury is valued at $4,555M and set to deliver FY18F EBITDAF of $550M
Meridian is valued at $8,000 and set to deliver FY18F EBITDAF of $640-680M ( Couldn't find an actual forecast from MEL)
Tilt with a pipeline possible of tripling total generation is valued by the market at $650M with current operating assets to deliver FY19F EBITDAF of $120-127M...
Understand these pivotal stages of heavy capital intensive developments and investments by Tilt has put plenty of would be investors off... until all is proven and the cash flows through to shareholders pockets.
They have a sizeable return profile if plans are executed in keeping with their past of consistently developing core long term assets.
Not saying the valuation of a core generator will ever match that of consumer facing Gentailers, but that gap will tighten.
Anybody worried about their debt position?
2017
L=879.8
Interest paid = 32.16
Interest rate = 32.16/879.8 = 3.66%
32.16/3.66 = 8.93
=2.23/0.25
Do these companies have long term fixed interest rates? If not does every 0.25% increase in interest rates wipe 2.23 mil off?
***disc new to investing***
I can never understand the mystery moves of the big gentailers. Their PEs are high, they write down over a billion dollars annually in depreciation (all together), charge like wounded bulls for electricity and still their earnings are very modest. :confused:
Debt is a necessity, without it how will the $2bn pipeline get built...
TERM NZD REPAYMENTS NZ WAIR% AUD REPAYMENTS AU WAIR% <1 Year $14.6m 4.00% $24.1m 3.40% >1<2 Years $15.2m 4.40% $177.8m 3.90% >2<5 Years $82.1m 5.20% $213.2m 4.80% >5 Years $11.0m 5.70% $105.5M 5.10%
Solar not the answer
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/wor...-national-grid
Solar power is not the answer on its own-this article shows problems that may happen if development proceeds faster than planning.
I have been in the whitsundays for the past 2 weeks-cloudless skies and sun every day so I am not surprised they have surplus solar.
Can you translate that to nz?
Has queensland got hydro where generation can be quickly reduced?
Has it got smart meetering?
Could that surplus power be stored -eg hot water tanks reprogrammed ?
Could that surplus power be used-reverse hydro,batteries,aircon,freezers ?
Dont discount solar-its clean ,green power .
Funny thing is that the solar owners are not complaining but the electricity industry which is being bypassed is. With battery prices coming down fast, and fuel cells starting the networks will become optional within 10 years.
Best thing for Aus to do is encourage electric cars and outfit commuter car parks with charge cables. Get commuter cars to be the batteries and you solve the problem plus lower oil imports. Instead of restrictions on supply try changing the demand curve.
I asked Flick why the spot prices were ridiculously high these past few weeks, often times hitting 80cents - 16/06/2018
"Regarding the recent spot price spikes, this was due to Huntly power station being turned on with the extreme cold that’s sweeping the country. It means that we’re seeing some more expensive, and dirtier energy in the mix.
In general the spot prices have been higher due to generation stations charging higher amounts for non renewable resources when this form of electricity generation is being put onto the national grid. This is because this current winter is looking really good for renewable resources which is why generators are upping the price when non renewable resources are being used to generate power."
If this great winter quarter for renewables only outperformed Tilts expectations by 5% then I would have had a real problem.
With this NZ quarter being 20% above expectations it proves, at least in my mind that TLT have obtainable long term expectations for their portfolio.
Spot prices in NZ and AU still remain below FY17, paired with the unpredictable nature of nature is why there is no update to guidance... yet.
REGION $/MWh 2017 $/MWh 2018 VARIANCE NSW 82.27 72.68 -11.66% QLD 72.87 68.1 -6.55% SA 98.1 75.41 -23.13% VIC 92.33 70.18 -23.99%
I don't own tilt for absolute financial performance this year or even the next, their output is already 50% ahead of PCP of the back of a few of their minor projects being completed...
given some time and a few more developments they are going to be far bigger than the market seems to think is possible.
Was a very solid quarter.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...465/282343.pdf
Ssh Hardt,investors here only want the short sugar fix :)
Not a close follower of Tilt. But assuming that figure you have quoted as L is the bank debt on the balance sheet at EOFY2017, perhaps you should use an average figure of debt by taking the debt at EOFY2016 and EOFY2017 and dividing that number by 2? After all the interest paid over the year will be based on the average loan size over the year. Not the loan balance at the end of the year.
Also with Tilt, a developer of new wind farms, some of the interest paid may be being capitalized on new development projects. That could make the actual interest paid as recorded in the accounts seem lower than the underlying interest bill really is.
So each interest rate percentage point represents $8.93m of interest being paid....Quote:
32.16/3.66 = 8.93
...And each quarter percentage point represents $2.23m in interest payments.Quote:
=2.23/0.25
Underlying borrowing terms are usually listed and detailed in the annual report under the 'Borrowings' note. You should find your answer there.Quote:
Do these companies have long term fixed interest rates?
Assuming your figures are correct, then yes a 0.25% interest rate would wipe off $2.23m off net profit before tax, everything else being equalQuote:
If not does every 0.25% increase in interest rates wipe 2.23 mil off?
Welcome to the forum.Quote:
***disc new to investing***
SNOOPY
good first quarter im picking an upgrade to yr end results at some stage and hence will benefit ift as well
Let the good times roll :)
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322264
Long-term, this thing is worth so much more and MCY know it.... SEVERE LOWBALLING at $2.30
What do you reckon, use your TLT funds to double down on more IFT?
Plenty of scope for the future
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4...22+August+2018
Interesting article on the power of the Australian coal lobby. Who knows what it might mean for TLT/IFT/MCY in the medium term.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-2...erals/10170908
Agree Hardt. With the emerging pipeline, consents and future demand for renewables, this would be a steal. Why would I sell my shares now after holding during the hard work period to build the pipeline and future opportunity.....? Selling myself short on the future.
Offer docs are out today.. tarting up $2.30 it up as a 24% 'premium' - based on the SP of the day their intentions were announced. So what.. a few cents in the here and now matters little.. It's the future value of the Co and the shares that matter and the risk/reward that may eventuate... The AGM presentation end August shines a good light on that.
Offer me $4 and I might see it differently... maybe
Waiting also to see what the TLT Board external assessment comes back with
Disc : I also hold also MCY and IFT separately. So, even though I would gain access to potential TLT future earnings/upside that way, I see far greater for holding TLT separately and operating as it's own entity, expertise and Board.
I have swapped into IFT. They will get it for 2.30. The price was below 2.00 before MCY came in. AU is very volatile and prices are declining fast.
Not sure they are quite saying that.
“At this stage, shareholders are advised to take no action until they receive further information from TLT on the offer.
TLT will appoint an independent adviser (who must be approved by the Takeovers Panel) to provide a report on the merits of the offer for TLT shareholders. If Infratil Limited and Mercury NZ Limited proceed with their offer, a copy of that report, together with TLT's response statement to the offer, will be provided to shareholders.”
Just reporting what I read...
TILT RENEWABLES' INDEPENDENT DIRECTORS SAY INFRATIL-LED TAKEOVER BID TOO LOWTilt Renewables' independent directors are recommending shareholders reject the $208.5 million Infratil-led takeover offer for the business, saying it is "simply too low". Infrastructure investment company Infratil owns 51 percent of the Melbourne-based wind and solar developer. Last month it announced it was partnering with power company Mercury NZ, which in May acquired almost 20 percent of Tilt's shares, to buy out the rest at $2.30 a share. That is 8 percent more than they were trading at prior to the offer and matches what Mercury paid for its stake. The shares last traded at $2.29 on the NZX.However, the "offer price does not adequately recognise the value of the current operational assets and the strong pipeline of future projects", Fiona Oliver, chair of the independent director committee, said in an emailed statement. “This is a very strong company in the renewables energy space, with excellent prospects. The $2.30 offer is simply too low. The independent directors believe the minority shareholders should be properly rewarded if Mercury and Infratil are to get total ownership and take the company private. The JV’s premium of 8 percent on recent trading does not recognise the strategic value of this company," she said.The premium is "materially below the average level for successful takeovers of this kind in New Zealand", she said, noting that the offer comes at an opportunistic time and doesn’t factor in a major future project that may deliver significant benefits to the company. This refers to Tilt's bid for a portion of output from the fully permitted 336MW Dundonnell Wind Farm under the Victorian Renewable Energy Auction Scheme. Oliver added that the committee will provide shareholders with a target company statement within two weeks that will include more detail, and an independent report by Northington Partners, "but our view is already clear".Tilt has seven operating wind farms in Australia and New Zealand and a string of development opportunities in both countries. It has just completed the 54MW Salt Creek wind farm in Victoria and is preparing to proceed with the A$600 million, 336MW Dundonnell project in the same state.The statement, which hasn't been published on the New Zealand or Australian stock exchanges, came as Infratil and Mercury announced they obtained approval from the Australian Foreign Investment Review Board for the deal, the only substantive condition in the takeover offer.
Tuesday 4th September 2018 Text too small?
agree i had tlt as a big bet for the future
It’s interesting to see the share trade above 2.30NZD
TLT is risky on forward options as the price of renewables is dropping fast. I think the cause is cheaper finance plus very cheap solar. I have just helped pay for 10 KW of solar on top of 6KW already,with a battery and 3 phase inverter. Pay back will be 5 years at most . Domestic power prices in NZ are a rip off , 5.5c/Kwhr for Tiwai and 15 at least for domestics all protected by the govt as they own a lot of NZ generation. The gains really start if you go off grid.
My understanding is that if MCY and IFT reach the 90% threshold they can compulsory purchase the remaining 10%. They already control 70% so are looking for 20% to grab a bargain. $3.60, that’s the number they should be pitching.
huge announcement today in aus about dundonnel
Premier Daniel Andrews will formally announce the results of the special "reverse auction" on Tuesday, a system where the Government has asked the industry for bids to build new energy generation
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-10/new-solar-wind-farms-to-be-built-in-victoria/10223550?section=business
It depends on the price which looks low.
Yes, thanks for the link.
It feels as though Infratil and Mercury were trying to get the deal through before this surfaced. They would have had more knowledge than the average shareholder (me) that's for sure. Leaves a bit of a bad taste in ones mouth, reinforces where the retail shareholder fits into the scheme of things, and so yes, I really hope they have to pay more.
Disc: Modest holding via my Trustpower shares.
independants advisors report out showing tilt valued at up to 3.02 , new ift were trying a sly move lol .only 2 options now substantially lift the offer price or drop the takeover.
My guess is the JV will just let the offer lapse. Infratil have still picked up the rest of the Tect shares for $2.30 and likely only wanted the rest if they could get them cheap.
I am really pleased to see that the Tilt independent directors have done their job well and not been intimidated by their majority shareholder.
IFT will just sit. If I had TLT shares I would sell them as the value will fall away after the offer closes. This is not advice only my opinion.
Second the view about the directors, but don’t believe the JV will give up. If they do you have to seriously question their strategy. You never put all your cards on the table and they couldn’t possibly think their first offer would be good enough. Might pick off a few, but they’ll have another go, say upper 2’s with a mop up offer third and final low 3’s - though 3.60 would be nice. Job done, TLT would obviously be a great fit into their long term strategy.
Infratils answer to the Independent Directors valuation is out.
Sounds terrible, if that is what Ift believe they should be selling, not buying.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324380
Infratil only consider Infratil. I was shocked a few years ago when I read their justification for an extension to Wellington Airport. I thought the case they made was extremely / blatantly biased towards the interests of Infratil to the detriment of an overall business consideration. They were certainly trying to justify getting ratepayers/taxpayers to put money in ..that would support Infratils interests. Went off them after reading that. IMO.
Can't blame a company for making their own case - it's someone else's job to look after ratepayers and taxpayers.
The advisory firms seem to be producing reports for order! “You wana go long, or short? Ok we’ll write that up”
“We continue to strongly recommend that shareholders do not accept the offer. To not accept the offer, shareholders should do nothing. They should ignore the takeover documents sent to them by Infratil and Mercury.” said Ms Oliver.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324530
t/o closes shortly.
dont know why infratil was trying to say uncertainty in aus around renewables look at the size of this deal 22 billion to be built in pilbara , wind and solar power development’s planned output from 9 gigawatts to more than 11 GW
https://thewest.com.au/business/ener...-ng-b88983687z
and another deal
https://thewest.com.au/business/cont...-ng-b88984439z
australia renewables are going offf
IFT reconfirms offer for TLT. Final offer $2.30 will not be increased.
http://news.iguana2.com/macquaries/NZSE/IFT/325068
another deal, a little less uncertainty
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/4...wind-farm.html
Acceptances finally gathering a bit of steam. pleasing to see (as an infratil holder)
I don't believe they will, TLT have done a good job at presenting their worth... Recent upgraded guidance looks good to holders too.
I bought a whole bunch at 228 yesterday to accept the offer at 230... Entirely free of risk, even at 0.5% return after brokerage, it's free money nonetheless.
If you follow what is happening in AU electricity you would get out of TLT
I'm interested as to your reasoning here. Is it the climate denialism of the liberals? Or the fall off in projects as the renewable energy target winds up in 2020, and the lag between new policy, investor confidence and project rollout? Australia can't keep it's head in the coal forever, but I guess "recovery" could be a long time coming.
With the TLT shares, I'm most concerned about dilution and the need to inject more for capital raising, which is a point I don't think the independent directors have addressed. The latest offer extension runs out tonight.
The govt is threatening major interference if prices do not come down.The cost of new rewnewable generation is very low with cheap financing and I do not think TLT will be able to match the prices. On top of that a number of major industries are contracting direct with new generators and many domestic customers are going off grid. Solar panels are being installed very quickly and cheaply. The same will happen here but at a slower pace.I am glad I got out of TLT.