At today's close of 918 Tesla's PE should drop below 100 in FY 2022

It should be an interesting earnings call tomorrow.

Yes - guess that will be soon after 10am NZ Time

Tesla now has about 1.2 million preorders for current production models. If they do make 1.5 million this year it is almost all accounted for. They also have more than a million Cybertruck orders, so even if 90% of them cancel it will still take all of 2023 to fill them.

Recovering somewhat from their recent drop - finished today at 922.43 - a 5.33% increase for the day…

Also in todays Reuters news…
Australia's Liontown signs 5-year lithium supply deal with Tesla…

Word on the street is that the German factory will open on 22nd or 23rd of March. Texas must be imminent too, the Texas BBQ in Austin is scheduled for April 7th. It will be good to get some diversification, Shanghai has been amazing, but a Taiwanese invasion could render it near worthless.

Yes, diversity is absolutely necessary as current events are highlighting…

90% of the new LG batteries is Nickel. VW rejected the batteries due to supply risk. But it is Teslas big plan
Basically that is over. Very bad news.

The lithium iron phosphate battery (LiFePO 4 battery) or LFP battery (lithium ferrophosphate) is a type of lithium-ion battery using lithium iron phosphate (LiFePO 4) as the cathode material, and a graphitic carbon electrode with a metallic backing as the anode.

Tesla has nickel supply contracts locked in, they also use a variety of battery chemistries (such as LFP above). Commodity prices rises will hit all auto manufacturers. My take is that this unfortunate war will damage ICE more than Tesla. It will also weaken newer profitless EV startups. Tesla will take a flesh wound, others will need ICU.

Might have supply but that isn't the issue. Most of those types of contracts have regular market pricing resets. So it isn't a flesh wound. I believe TLSA gets most of its nickel from its Vale contract. Vale is heavily reliant on New Cal. But in terms of long term planning it is a pain. That mine is disputed and actually was about to close back in 17/18.

This happened a year ago. New Caledonia agrees to Vale nickel mine sale, Tesla to be partner | Reuters

For the first time, Caledonian interests have a majority share of ownership (51% including 30% for the SPMSC and 21% for employees of Prony resources (with 12%) and local populations (with 9%). Trafigura, the world’s third largest trader of raw materials has 19% ownership. Finally, La Compagnie financière de Prony, which brings together industrial investors, clients and the management of Prony Resources, has the remaining 30% of shares.

Yet you were saying Vale was a problem for Tesla. This was sorted a year ago, with Tesla's help. There are good reasons to question Tesla's share price, valuation (my 2023 PE is 45), Chinese EV makers, supply chain problems, geopolitics....None the less they have shown an amazing ability to mitigate most of the issues others have faced.

It looks like 54% of Tesla cars sold in the December quarter were LFP, that is they had no nickel or cobalt.

Attachment 13626

Last 3 sessions have been great for short term trading :)

(26) Tesla Gigafactory Grünheide (Inside) - YouTube

July is going to be an interesting month for Tesla shares. In their Q2 results they may have to write off circa US$700 million from their Bitcoin gamble. In the scheme of things it is insignificant as they have almost no debt and close to US$20 billion in cash. The lockdown of their most profitable factory in Shanghai will also be costly.
Countering that Shanghai is back up and running at about 3,000 cars a day, the fledgling German factory is currently producing more performance Ys than Porsche is making Taycans. These should eventually be higher profit than the Shanghai ones as there is no import tax and less freight cost.

Model X: Dual motor all-wheel drive Long Range Model X increased from $114,990 to $120,990, an increase of $6,000
Model X: Plaid stayed at $138,990

Model S: Dual motor all-wheel drive Long Range Model S went from $99,990 to $104,990, an increase of $5,000
Model S: Plaid stayed $135,990

Model Y: Long Range went from $62,990 to $65,990, an increase of $3,000
Model Y: Performance went from $67,990 to $69,990, an increase of $2,000

Model 3: The Long Range increased from $54,490 to $57,990, an increase of $2,500.

I am looking forward to seeing the Q2 production figures from the two new startups

(Even though shareprice is well down, I am still enjoying the daily swings in shareprice) :)

update.... my
Price target for Tesla is chapter 11....
It's a gamble so invest accordingly....I'd say current discount has a lot further to go ....
Markets have been super bullish lately...

https://www.businessinsider.com/hydr...threat-2019-12

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Valuegrowth

https://www.businessinsider.com/hydr...threat-2019-12

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There is a small possibility that Hydrogen in one form or another might have it's uses for boats, planes, trucks and trains, but even then it is dubious. In the UK and Europe the very expensive refueling stations that were installed are slowly being removed. Shell has removed all of it's hydrogen refueling stations and Motive has closed 2 out of 3 in London.

There are 11 hydrogen refueling stations left in the UK and 57,000 public BEV chargers.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Walter

There is a small possibility that Hydrogen in one form or another might have it's uses for boats, planes, trucks and trains, but even then it is dubious. In the UK and Europe the very expensive refueling stations that were installed are slowly being removed. Shell has removed all of it's hydrogen refueling stations and Motive has closed 2 out of 3 in London.

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Thank you for the information.

Too many cars is good news for consumers,but bad for environment.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/car-market-prices-plummet-due-153706713.html

New Car Market: Prices Are About To Plummet Due to Oversupply

https://www.mogo.com.au/inner-city-l...fe%20is%20over.

"Eco-Friendly

We should all be more conscious about the world we call home. A smaller car is a great way to reduce your fuel consumption and carbon footprint for more sustainable living. It’s not only the reduced amount of gas and emissions. A small car also represents a smaller amount of waste material once your car’s productive life is over. By buying a small car, you can enjoy the peace of mind of knowing you are not putting the health of our environment in jeopardy."

https://theqldr.com.au/environmental...lectric_nf-22/