MNW - Manawa Energy

Manawa Energy (MNW) - the woke version of Trustpower after the sell-off of it's retail business to Mercury and it's Australian renewable generation assets.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...iness-for-441m

Infratil still owns 51% of this enterprise. Some thoughts on its investability?

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Originally Posted by Panda-NZ-

Manawa Energy (MNW) - the woke version of Trustpower after the sell-off of it's retail business to Mercury and it's Australian renewable generation assets.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...iness-for-441m

Infratil still owns 51% of this enterprise. Some thoughts on its investability?

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Seems to trade at a reasonable pe compared to the other power companies, forward pe of 23.21 with growth from new generation. Have to view it as part of Infratil’s global renewable portfolio.

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Originally Posted by huxley

Have to view it as part of Infratil’s global renewable portfolio.

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Is renewable energy valuable. You would think that with the move to renewable energy as being a new gold standard, it's value would be enhanced and reflected in the SP. Instead when the retail arm is sold for presumably fair value, the SP falls by more than $2. I feel the transition to green energy to save the world from climate change is not valued.

Ift would be fully aware of the lower ROE in renewables investment in Nz versus it's international portfolio.

This is probably why Trust power and now Manawa have not received large capital investment over the years comparative to the rest of their portfolio.

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Originally Posted by bottomfeeder

Is renewable energy valuable. You would think that with the move to renewable energy as being a new gold standard, it's value would be enhanced and reflected in the SP. Instead when the retail arm is sold for presumably fair value, the SP falls by more than $2. I feel the transition to green energy to save the world from climate change is nor valued.

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I can remember buying Tilt Renewable shares for ~$1.30 before Infratil tried to buy the whole company for $2.30ish per share, they were only able to increase to 65% ownership. That was a few years before they sold Tilt for $8.00 in 2021.

I guess the market didn’t value the transition then either..

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421486

Highlights
• EBITDAF from continuing operations ($78m) and underlying earnings ($39m) up 11% and 13% respectively;
• Profit from continuing operations up 38%;
• Profit after tax down 86% after last year’s one-off gain from the sale of the Trustpower retail business of $349m;
• Generation volumes up 14% to meet market demand ahead of planned outage at Waipori;
• Landholder agreements or options in place for more than 950MW of new solar and wind projects;
• Pipeline of new development projects includes Kaihiku Wind Farm (announced Oct 2023), Ototoka Wind Farm (new), Hapuakohe Wind Farm (new), and expansion of Argyle Solar Farm (announced May 2023);
• Good progress with refurbishment and replacement programme across key hydro assets, set to deliver an ongoing annual uplift of more than 78GWh by 2028;
• New sustainable finance framework established, Green Bonds now comprise more than 80% of the company’s debt;
• Interim dividend of 8.0 cents per share to be paid on 1 December 2023, up from 7.5 cents last year.

MNW is a solid, underrated company

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Originally Posted by shareman

MNW is a solid, underrated company

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Have to agree, but if the SP was and unfortunately is a gauge of the success of a company MNW is a dog. Lost 40% of value over such a short period of time and not looking to recover that anytime soon.

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Originally Posted by bottomfeeder

Have to agree, but if the SP was and unfortunately is a gauge of the success of a company MNW is a dog. Lost 40% of value over such a short period of time and not looking to recover that anytime soon.

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Along with a lot of others on the NZX.

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Originally Posted by 777

Along with a lot of others on the NZX.

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Yep our market is depressed. MNW SP dropping even though promising results.

I just think it's general market sentiment why they're dropping and they're also seen as one of the weaker generators which I don't believe is fair as they have alot of geographic diversity

Excuse my ignorance
Where did all the power go then?

"Manawa’s generation increased 14% to 1110GWh and electricity sold to customers declined 8% to 536GWh"

Two Brokers.
Two different views.
Craigs.Underweight.Price Target $4.22
Hobson.Outperform.PT $7.90.

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Originally Posted by percy

Two Brokers.
Two different views.
Craigs.Underweight.Price Target $4.22
Hobson.Outperform.PT $7.90.

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WTF. They are not even close to eachother.

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Originally Posted by bottomfeeder

WTF. They are not even close to eachother.

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Craig’s guy probably that ex Genesis manager in past life …so industry expert

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/428413

Independent power producer and renewable energy developer Manawa Energy (‘Manawa’) advises that the company’s EBITDAF for the year to 31 March 2024 is likely to be in the range of $142m to $147m, above the previous guidance range of $120m to $140m. Capital expenditure guidance remains unchanged at $65m to $80m.

The revision is driven by several factors, including an increased focus on operating efficiencies and value capture, favourable energy trading conditions in Q3 and Q4, and relatively strong irrigation demand. It is contingent on there being no material events for the remainder of the financial year.

Manawa has also continued to progress and expand its pipeline of renewable development options, with the following milestones achieved in recent months:

• secured resource consent from the Marlborough District Council for the previously announced Argyle Solar Farm (~28MWac), adjacent to its Branch River hydro power scheme in Marlborough. Manawa is currently preparing a resource consent application for an expansion of the Argyle Solar Farm up to ~65MWac that is expected to be lodged in early FY25; and

• secured land options for a potential 100MW wind farm opportunity in Marlborough, along with a ~200MWac solar opportunity in the Mackenzie Basin, taking Manawa’s secured pipeline of wind and solar options to more than 1.2GW.

Let's hope this takes the SP to Hobsons choice of $7.90.

EBITDAF from continuing operations of $145m (up 6%)

Fully imputed final dividend of 11 cents per share (to be paid on 14 June 2024), lifting the full year ordinary dividend to 19 cents per share.

https://api.nzx.com/public/announcem...301-418726.pdf

pretty solid result (as expected). they should get a DRP going to help retain some of the divie cash in the business - plus would also help with stock liquidity. have to pay for that pipeline of more than 1,200MW (to be developed) somehow, so would be a good way to help fund growth alongside the bonds.

Yeah I don’t know if a DRP is likely given the two largest shareholders, but they’ve mentioned the dividend policy is going to be reviewed with a view to align this with their new business model.

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Originally Posted by huxley

Yeah I don’t know if a DRP is likely given the two largest shareholders, but they’ve mentioned the dividend policy is going to be reviewed with a view to align this with their new business model.

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Hard to know what that meant. Had to look further back in the announcement to see what an IPP was. When I did...well, I really wasn't much wiser.

IPP = Independent Power Producer. Assume this is because they are not a public owned (or part owned) 'Gentailer'

Spark sign PPA with GNE


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...MSDAVQVAY3DHA/