http://www.afr.com/street-talk/aft-p...0150930-gjymsn
Thoughts?
(clearly no details yet, but from a macro/investor perspective, I think this could be good...)
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http://www.afr.com/street-talk/aft-p...0150930-gjymsn
Thoughts?
(clearly no details yet, but from a macro/investor perspective, I think this could be good...)
Thumbs up from me.. Good business to be in. But depends on valuation. Orion is a good example, good fundamentals but very high price multiple hence fared poorly for those who put money in IPO.
I don't know anything about the industry, but I understand pharmaceuticals are a key component of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, would it have any impact on AFT?
Officially announced yesterday or the day before.
A couple of articles here:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU151...zx-and-asx.htm
and here:
http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=216784
and a fact sheet available from brokers.
Anyone interested in this one?
That's a fair loss (-$12.9M) on a fairly mature company ($56.2M), R&D spend ~$4M with 'Maxigesic' their major IP. Be interested to know the valuation, unless it's a steal I'll be shying away.
Some more detailed information: (worth a read!)
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/pdf/AFT_P...Fact_Sheet.pdf
A couple of links providing an Aust perspective:
http://www.afr.com/street-talk/aft-p...0150930-gjymsn
http://www.afr.com/street-talk/imed-...0150930-gjyobj
Given they're going for a dual listing, it looks like they might have to be set a very realisitic strike price. FWIW: IDX made a brief climb to $1.95, today it dug a new low of $1.76.
I am hearing good whispers on AFT... will be interesting to see if they do go fully ahead with the IPO (although I think they will do), and even more interesting to see what price it is...
thats alot of R&D (sales 80mil-up from 60mil)but a 12.9mil loss.--this is a familiar story in the Biotec sector (which is why they are normally spec stocks)--If they come up with a major product from their R&D then it could be big but.....
Of course it depends on list price and sometimes these can go ballistic on hype,but at a time when most are leaning towards div. paying co.s with strong balance sheets you would certainly want to do your homework and keep it a smaller % of the portfolio. IMO--they would be up against some pretty tough competition worldwide. Maxigesic--Isnt that a combination of Ibuprofin and paracetimal?--a novel idea to combine the 2 ,but both those ingredients have been around for ages so hardly earth shattering in terms of R&D and new products.
^ Skid has most of my thoughts here. I'd be viewing this as a speculative 'startup' type bet considering where it appears their business plan is at the moment. From the info sheet it appears AFT was cash +ve (sustainable growth) then did a big drive into Oz which increased rev but at a loss. I think their details around growing their global market are also bit sparse.
Be interested to see what their GM is (cant find anything in that info sheet), generic drugs are typically low margin plus coupled with the fact they use contract manufacturers (likely Douglas, GMP etc) I cant imagine there is alot of meat left.
DYOR but I'd ask alot more questions on this one before plunging in.
Does any one have any thoughts/comments re the company and the float? Shares will list at NZ$2.80.
http://www.business.govt.nz/disclose...86073257672360
There is some valuable information on this page, such as previous recent financial statements.
What is interesting is the loan they have at 13.5% interest rate (why is this so high??)
Also interesting is how fast australian sales have grown
Also $1m in dividends were paid in 2015 (I think I saw this), so if they don't pay dividends when they list, this will be a 'automatic' cash flow saving
Just a few interesting things I have seen... but also interested to know what others think (i've already signed up...)
This is an interesting thing I saw in the weekend paper. Of the 14 IPOs listed on the NZX in 2014-2015--only 4 were in the black (??) one was GNE and I think there was at least another high profile listing in the black.
So smaller start ups didnt fare to well as a whole.
That high interest loan usually translates to higher risk....so its a punt (funding research)
Written by Brian Gaynor, director of Milford Asset Management which has some ownership of AFT
The gist was that there were not enough IPOs coming along for the NZX (the success rate was obvious though-which Im sure he would not want to connect the dots if he is involved with the newest offering)---Seems like a good bloke who started it and a good company at present--but whether its suitable for a share listing to fund research is another matter---At least with PEB they had Otago uni to do the research and simply bought the end result (something that share holders often overlook who seem to equate the good product with the management instead of Otagos scientists)---(2 part system 1-scientists come up with the technology---2 management buys and is in charge of promoting and selling it)
The gist was that there were not enough IPOs coming along for the NZX (the success rate was obvious though-which Im sure he would not want to connect the dots if he is involved with the newest offering)---Seems like a good bloke who started it and a good company at present--but whether its suitable for a share listing to fund research is another matter---At least with PEB they had Otago uni to do the research and simply bought the end result (something that share holders often overlook who seem to equate the good product with the management instead of Otagos scientists)---(2 part system 1-scientists come up with the technology---2 management buys and is in charge of promoting and selling it)
I heard advertising on Radio Hauraki for the AFT public offer . Apart from the energy floats, this is quite unprecedented.
The best floats are the ones you can't get in to.
A clear warning sign for me.
I have been scaled back a fair bit. I think they will be successful.
I'm not sure why they were advertising, because there is no public offer for a start, only broker and priority offer... (I know one of the big brokers basically got given almost no allocation).
On a separate note, on NBR I did see an article titled "the Dick Smith of pharmaceuticals" with AFT tagged in it... I hope it wasn't implying AFT, but as I don't have paid access I couldn't read further... http://www.nbr.co.nz/subscribe/182287
Anyone care to enlighten us?
AFT got a waiver for having less than 25% of its register held by the public. Looks like Joe Public didn't bite and it is mainly instos. Not sure if this is necessarily a bad thing though as I've seen this before and it is an NZ problem. I assume the NZX ignores anything related to the ASX register which may have greater public support.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/275546
What time does AFT list today on the NZX and the ASX? The listing notices never have the time which frustrates me.
Off to a good start... up around 11%, not many sellers (not surprisingly)
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...6-mln-ipo.html
Interesting article... Up almost 11% for the day, I got my full allocation, anyone know when they list on the ASX? I notice there is a checky bid on the ASX for $2.90 and a much larger one for $1. Meanwhile on the NZX Buy orders outweigh sell orders almost 3:1
Early days I know, but initial reaction is always something to be watched (I think at least).
Good to see share price holding well above IPO price, interesting was the results announcement to the market for the six month reporting period to September 30 2015 as I thought this has already been released, but was still marked as price sensitive (maybe NZX did it just in case...)
Good to see two important 'boxes ticked' for a growth company:
- Gross Profit increased 17% (with sales increasing more than costs of goods sold)
- Cash (receipts) From Customers increased 18.5% (with receipts increasing more than payments to suppliers and employees)
Let the good news continue :t_up:
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/230971.pdf
A great start for a newly listed company!
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/279472
Probably back over $3 now! "significant boost in sales"
AFT has only been listed for just under 3 months, and they have already announced a couple of very positive announcements.
Disclosure: Happy Holder
Doesnt look like a chance, by the depth---You sure like those speculative plays TJ!
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/279815
Simply stunning, one would think this sort of break through would certainly push it over $3!
I dunno tJ--Im still looking at the depth--sell 4551@285---buy 400@275
Im not surprised they got approval--its a combination of 2 of the most common ingredients around--just doesnt seem like the sort of thing to take the medical world by storm--(no reason not to use it though--Im sure it will keep selling,but I think you will need some sort of breakthrough (from the research)to really make traction.
Right now there is heaps of positivity on the NZX so if it doesnt happen today ,or soon,might be alot of waiting.
Cautiously optimistic. An initial step in what will be a long process for FDA approval in clinical application.
Here's the link to one of their trials from the US if your clinically inclined. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02689063
It is similar to the trial which will be piloted in Christchurch
Speaking to my colleagues in the pain management field, there are still a myriad of issues concerning IV administration of NSAIDs
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/282071
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/282070
Solid announcements, leading up to what will hopefully be an impressive full year results announcement on Wednesday May 25 2016 (around 9am)
The big question is just how much dosh they are churning through with the research,and whether they are coming up with anything--I wonder if they would not be better off just promoting their established product(but whats the difference between just taking 1/2 tab of ibuprofen and 1/2 of paracetimal (i did the spell check on the misspelling of para and it told me ''malpractice'' --you gotta laugh sometimes)
Theres probably a big difference but Ive often wondered
I was asked by my chemist what I thought of AFT.
Told him I would find out what I could.
So 96,834,838 shares on issue,giving at $2.95 a market capitalisation of $285,662,772.
Half year to 30th September 2015;
Revenue $29,543,000
Nett loss $6,367,000.
Next report due 25th May .
Conculsion.The market is factoring in a lot of "blue skies".Be careful.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/236150.pdf
On the face of it, what was interesting for me:
- "losses" (when excluding Research and development expenses and Equity accounted loss of joint venture entity) increased slightly from $204k to $564k
- gross profit up almost 12%, with margins reasonably strong (not showing singes of dramatic decreases in gross margin to try sell more!)
- Australia is doing very well (and probably continue to grow in double digits)
- Rest of world will probably continue to treble in sales for the next few years
- NZ is performing "solidly" but will probably continue at mid single digits due to saturation (great to see market share is growing!)
Look forward to hearing what others are thinking, but this looks to be a keeper!
Disclosure: of course I'm holding!
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/a...two-years.html
Anyone go?
Presentation didn't look to exciting, but it's good to see things are tracking well
Taking paracetamol and ibuprofen together is effectively the same, and a lot of doctors do actually prescribe this for post-operative pain relief (particularly with the current push to get away from opiate-based analgesics). However, in theory it's best for patient safety and compliance to simplify a prescription as much as possible (one tablet is better than two). As far as over-the-counter use is concerned, I imagine that users who find that a combination is best for their particular pain would also prefer to have a packet of the all-in-one tablet, plus it's safer if the combination dose is pre-measured instead of having a situation where consumers have to mix and match.
What I'm most interested in is whether they have a US sales partner lined up and what sort of marketing effort will be directed toward US healthcare providers.
One day the share price might surge up
Impressive sales chart in annoucement
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/243361.pdf
Fantastic annoucement! What is hard to believe is how the share price has 'barely' budged, given, what I think we can all agree on, is a very impressive annoucement... (I suppose the given the broader market weakness, where the nzx 50 is down 1.2% or so, getting any bump is 'ok')
Disclosure: very comformtable holder, just don't own enough;)
You know all about AFT
Is this what was expected
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/247882.pdf
Just a bit surprised with the 1% sales growth over pcp. . Their charts always touted a CAGR of close to 20% pa
I've always been surprised at what a low EBITA they have when Maxigesic is so $$$ at the pharmacy and its active compounds are one of the most commoditised in the drug market.
The chart below is from an update dated Sept 12th - nice looking chart with the note that FY17 projection is based on 33 million tabs for first 5 months of year (heaps more than all of FY16
Even t_j was moved to say 'fantastic announcement' - even piqued my interest
But then H1 revenues are only going to be up 1%
Doesn't seem to make much sense
Please t_j - what the heck is going on here
I have to say I was surprised to see revenue had increased just 1%, luckily the low share price was already more than taking into account this seeminly lackluster headline figure. Seems they once again have production issues, although it is nice to see underlying demand from the end customer remains strong. Will be interesting to see 'the bigger numbers' on November 24, particularly around cash flows
They seem to have good control over costs, along with everything going 'to plan'... still very exciting times for AFT... and I'd like to think they are very much expecting a very strong 2H performance ;)
They are certainly struggling to go (and stay)above the original share price--Thats some ''serious backpedaling'' on the Fantastic announcement call.
Whats the story with those(once again)production issues?---I remember this being touted as a real Kiwi success story by Nigel Latima....so whats up?-----''very exciting times'' sounds familiar eh?
So they sold about 20 million Maxigesic pills in H1 but expect to sell another 55 million in H2
So all honky dory - no worries
But still have a problem with those 20 million pills in H1 being about the same as full year last period but $ revenues only up 1%.
Report doesn't make good reading - ni doubt t_j will tell us the good bits.
Hey t_j ......did you notice expenses increasing at a faster rate than revenues. Not good
Sorry mate, you asked for that. Hope PEB is different.
Yes I did note this... although I also noted that Cost of Sales decreased... although I am fine with all other expenses 'fluctuating', I was not to happy to see Selling and distribution expenses increasing, nor happy to see the Cash Flows from Operating Activities... hopefully this will show with a large jump in sales over the next 6 months, and they seem to be expecting this. No worries, because they'll be making money in 2018/19 without a capital raising (kinda like PEB ;))
All looking good
Only a matter of time. As they say 'Although the contributions of advancing these projects are not yet apparent in the current financial results, progressing them is important as we are laying the building blocks for future material growth in AFT sales and earnings.'
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/295532
Could be a market darling this year
https://nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/296900
Another positive announcement, share price will probably (somehow) go no where
Share prices are mostly reactive to statement made that will affect sustainable long term cash flows from product sales. A fee wavier is great, but doesn't warrant excitement when the business end of things aren't delivering highly. With puff pieces of their Maxigesic being licensed out to over 100 countries and yet no big revenue changes its not exactly a mood changer!
t_j did you bail out the other day taking the share price down to 230
AFT chart looking sicker by the day - needs some Maxigesic maybe.
Where to from here
Surely only upwards from here?
Not sure Maxigesic will help the retail investors bailing understand that AFT have to invest in product development (etc) before dramatic jumps in growth will be seen on the bottom line... of course they could become profitable tomorrow (they have nearly always been profitable in the past, apparently) but the whole idea of raising capital on our great NZX was to help invest in AFT's innovative products... a little Crystaderm might help protect against further unexplained share price drops (impatient investors maybe?)
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf
Interesting presentation, but also brief and to the point.
"expected total income for FY2017 [in the upper end of the range], up from $65.8m in FY2016" so lets say $70.5m.
Total Income analysis
1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)
Therefore:
2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)
It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)
I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
(1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.
Total Operating Revenues:
48.9m 2014
56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
81m 2018 (+19.3%)
Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)
Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)
Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.
https://nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/301469
Another step in the right direction, this one apparently material... share price will likely go down eh?
This is a bit of a concern - I'm not sure how I missed it but it's the same thing as maxigesic except with 50 mg more ibuprofen per tablet (and a bigger marketing budget and distribution network).
http://www.nurofen.com.au/our-produc...-pain/nuromol/
After a quick skim of the IP situation it would appear that AFT are only really pursuing NZ and US patents, which would give extra importance to success in the US market. In other markets a bigger competitor could swamp AFT on this product if they wanted to. Additionally, Reckitt Benckiser may be hedging their bets as their formulation falls outside of the seemingly quite specific claims in the AFT patents.
I'd be pretty interested in hearing some opinions if anyone with experience in pharmaceutical patents is following this thread.
Several (but potentially not all) of the AFT patents related to Maxigesic can be found with this search string: https://scholar.google.dk/scholar?st...=en&as_sdt=0,5
Cheers
Jimbo
AFT very similar to OHE... Overpromise and underdeliver. What a shame..AFT need to show profit dollars on the board, not just sales or promise of the sales..talk less and deliver more.
This is possibly the worst comparison I have read, atleast in a while… AFT is VERY different to OHE.
OHE has one of big contracts (similar to WYN) based onsoftware which is questionable (it would seem).
AFT has proven products with a specific and patented combinations(more of x doesn’t mean it is better), and the first and only pharmaceutical onthe NZX… probably why so many people in this country don’t understand it, but while US specialist healthcare investor CRG capital are only too happy to hand them more capital (literally) and have shares themselves... could explain why the share pricehas gone sideways (and comments such as AFT is similar to OHE appear…).
AFT has actually been profitable in the past, for manyyears in fact, and could probably be profitable ‘tomorrow’ if they wanted to butare investing in research and development (this was the whole idea of the IPO) of new, promising products, which are on track, and on budget.
AFT has made some positive announcements, some even ahead of schedule, which are not yet showing up on the top or bottom line (I agree with you on this), but willdo over the coming years (I believe)… in the meantime, the market will likely continue to misprice AFT (too low) mainly due to a misunderstanding of the company itself.
OHE has continuously missed targets, and the company even admits this, AFT hasn’t at all, although has experienced some one of factors in the past year ish… the years ahead will be most interesting for AFT.
Finally, AFT isn’t running on empty;)
I don't doubt that AFT put a decent amount of research into determining their combination, but that doesn't mean that a competitor with a different approved formulation and a recognisable brand can't sell just as well. Over-the-counter pain medication is all about sales.
All the PRs regarding new approvals and license agreements are important, but the next step of actually making sales is the most important. I really wouldn't mind to see some information from AFT about how they perceive their competitors and the extent to which they believe their IP should lock down the US market.
AFT and OHE are both over promising and under delivering (I am not comparing their businesses)! Their share prices are being duly punished.
Maxigesic is actually not a good pain killer. It has significant side effects, it can cause gastric ulcers and damage kidneys in certain patients! The main advantage is that it is an "over-the-counter" medication and has high margins. I hope they make money by selling millions of maxigesic tablets, so far not impressive financially.
Discl - holding a small parcel
Completely agree RRR, Maxigesic is not a good pain killer (great marketing name though!) as it doesn't allow flexibility in dosing with its fixed combination. And ibuprofen continues to get bad press for side effects. However the AFT generic side of their business has a lot of potential. (sigh, always wished Douglas Pharmaceuticals IPO'ed, that would have been awesome). I'm guessing if they keep their generic side of the business pumping, they will be snapped up by one of the larger international drug companies.
audiav - I actually bought at ipo considering their generic business! But management focus is on maxigesic and their sinusitis drug delivery business. I hope they succeed.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/301577
Actually ahead of what I expected with operating revenue up to $69.2m.
Key take outs:
- Very promising noises, and already showing in the numbers, with very good growth in Australia, and, well, anywhere else but in NZ (which has been the main drag on revenues increasing 8%, this and supply issues)
- Gross margin improving was nice surprise
- Cash position of 16m very solid
- Good to see General and administrative expenses aren't running out of control
- Back to profit (note the word back - as mentioned AFT has made profits before) in during the FY2018/FY2019 period
- Next 2 years will be interesting, although the board sound confident they can execute
Hey t_j whatsup - expenses growing at a much faster rate than revenues. Not good?
But 8% revenues increase is pretty pathetic isn't it? To echo your own words about EVO 'I hought this was a growth company'
Sorry, couldn't resist this - but has some truth eh
When excluding NZ, as mentioned, growth is actually pretty solid... and unlike EVO, at least AFT tell it like it is... not try hide the fact EPS went up barely 1%
No worries, AFT will be profitable next year (or the year after), and hopefully have annual EPS growth a bit better than 1%
Looking very breifly through the annual report I believe operating revenue will still come in around 81m for FY18... however Australia could provide 'exceptional growth' (ie beat my estimate below) as AFT look to be doing a big push (with alot of expenses incurred this financial year)
Australia was 37.1m (31.2m 2016) - I believe there will be very strong growth of 25%... 46.4m FY18 with margins improving
New Zealand was 29.2m (31.1m 2016) - I believe there will be a minor drop... 28.5m FY18 with margins improving
Southeast Asia was 1.0m (0.6m 2016) - I believe this will double... 2m FY18, not sure on margins
Rest of World was 2.0m (1.0m 2016) - management noted hard to estimate growth, although growth should be significant... 4.0m 2018
I also note Mr Atkinson took not even 3k more in Base Salary (including benefits, ie car allowance) than FY17... and his bonus fell from 127k to 75k... at least he's not milking it... looks to be very aware of the task in front of him: significant sales growth + profitability (which will = a happy share price, happy shareholders, and a bigger bonus for him I'm sure)
I would have liked to have participated in the SPP, but did not have the cash at the time... will be interesting to see who does (the founder still owns over 75% of the shares so will be interesting to see what he does, if anything!). I also note about 40 more retail shareholders may have joined the list (shareholders between 1 and 5000 shares)... still only 870 odd shareholders
Looks all honky dory if ASM presos anything to go by
Sounds even better if you were there ;)
So good I am tempted to buy more... I also noted the sellers dried up
Been a bit naughty
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9...-marketinghtml
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/306565
What a great kiwi company.
Love the story, love the growth - only a matter of time these factors flow through to the bottom line (as we know, AFT has been profitable many years before... it ain't your usual unprofitable since day 1 and cross our fingers for profit one day WYN investment style thing with lavish new offices in Christchurch - quite the opposite)
Disclosure: although I'm a shareholder, I didn't get any invite to their 20th birthday party, probably to modest to hold one, keep expenses under control etc etc, or is 21 the big one? ;)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/971...-as-penicillin
Not a good look really, hopefully some further clarification with an announcement to the stock exchange first thing Monday.
On another note, half year drawing to a close next week, half year results announced about two month from now.
October 24 last year saw Operating Revenues of $29.8m with Operating Loss of $8.4m... I will be looking for an improvement in both, but particularly in revenue growth.
https://www.nzx.com/companies/AFT/announcements/308588
I am surprised that this announcement is not marked as "price sensitive"! It should be in my view.
T_J Im debuting on ST and have a question for you.
a) I'm assuming the suppressed SP and its inability to respond to good news is due to the very low liquidity. If this is the case how is this likely to change (the liquidity) and will lack of change stall future SP growth regardless of inevitable (I hope) improved financial results?
ta
petty
Sorry petty I only just saw your question!
Liquidity is an 'issue' in the sense you get wild jumps and not alot of 'big' investors coming on board (as they can't get their orders filled)... in AFT's case it is bit of a double edged sword in this case - great that the founder owns 75% ish (not private equity) of the company and CRG Capital (a specialist US phama investor, who has been there for many, many years and described it as one of the best investments, top 2% or something) is unlikely to sell till AFT becomes profitable again (which could be very soon!), so basically 88.77% (as at 2 May) of the shares are unlikely to be traded... meaning that just over 11% of the shares on issue can be traded.
In the future, which may be months or years away, CRG Capital will probably sell down several percent of their stake, and the founder may also reduce his holding, possibly by bringing on other institutions (who I would think would be comfortable investing in a profitable growth company, like AFT is turning out to be - and something I have said it will be from day 1). Neither are likely to sell down until what they deem to be a reasonable price can be received for their shares. Something tells me this will be a fair bit higher than the IPO price (of $2.80). Increased liquidity will no doubt help the share price 'stabilize' and reduce common wild ups and downs, will likely also see AFT enter the NZX 50. (it was interesting attending the AGM - the founder, who is also the CEO, really didn't care what the share price was doing [despite owning a sizable number of shares!] and he spoke for an hour ish without glancing at any notes... quite impressive and shows he really is the best person for the job and knows exactly what is going on in every aspect of the business, that confidence, among other things, prompted me to put a buy order in for more shares the next day, which, to my delight, I got)
On another note, Half year financial results today have shown AFT is a true growth company with revenue up 23%, gross profit increasing by 33% (and gross profit margin expanding nicely) and expenses (namely Selling and distribution expenses, and General and administrative expenses) stabilizing and not increasing more, as a percentage, than what revenue (as a percentage) has increased.
The interim report makes for nice reading (and even more comforting when you consider AFT always have a stronger 2nd half). The 2nd half will also include the elusive re-scheduling of codeine based painkillers from over-the-counter to prescription only (from 1 February 2018) which could provide a even larger than 'usual' boost to this coming 2nd half - possibly enough to push AFT to profitability in the 2018 financial year (they have indicated they expect to return to profitability in 2018/2019 - I would consider a return to profit in 2018 a 'beat' ...and I say 'return', because they have been profitable for many, many years).
The market is asleep at the wheel when it comes to AFT and this will only be truly 'realized' when CRG or the founder make a placement to an insto, who conveniently cover the stock with a favorable rating, and subsequently offload AFT shares to their clients.
To summarize, the best times are ahead for AFT and the first 'signs' haven shown in this interim result.
Agree T J but I see a C R this year as there is only $7.2 mil cash to cover this years loss of approx what $5.0 mil , I know this is a growth company but AFT is still coming out of the " valley of death".
This year will be a very interesting one in the companies history, they are not too far away now .
I'm not so sure, you could be right, they seem to like mentioning that "In addition we have a US$10m facility available with the CRG Group."... they seem to have about a years worth of cash left, which could be enough to get them to positive operating cash flows... all depends on timing, and my thinking would be that if they are 'close' to cash flow flow break even, they may draw down a couple million from this facility rather than going to the market. Of course if they see a 'material opportunity (or equivalent words to that effect) they may be tempted to raise significantly more capital (ie tens of millions), where I imagine the founder may not participate (the first step to increasing liquidity), of course this is pure speculation, and would likely be a bit of an eyebrow riser given they had not previously signaled such a move to Mr Market.
Not sure if EVO achieved 23% growth in their revenues recently...
23% growth is above their 10 year CAGR 21% mentioned in the prospectus released nearly bang on 2 years ago.
Some 23% growth in revenues and operating expenses getting more under control every minute - was this a surprise to you?
23%, I've not mentioned it 4 times, and it is also nearly 4x better than 8% just 6 ish months ago... wow
Great stuff, roll on profitability in the near future.
Edison has some brilliant insight into AFT - http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....&ID=20059&LANG=
Edison have made me plenty of money, when they say something is undervalued I tend to agree.
Bullish for the business long term... too bearish a stock to buy in right now for me.
Perhaps one for next years portfolio... unless fomo
Jeez .....they have a valuation of $4.73 —— and if things go really well into the future $8.09
Edison do some pretty good reports, especially with market background stuff, but financials are always very optimistic (best case)
Report was commissioned by AFT
Watching brief at this stage for me ...not as enthusiastic as some
They had a report on SEA too...it shoot up then down at current price..bloody fish oil..
Thanks very much for that link hardt.
Very interesting reading.
This company is ripe for a takeover as well. It'll be chump change to one of the larger drug companies
Also anecdotally (n.b percy) :))
(i) I have asked at a few chemists in Queen St and they all say its selling well
(ii) My partner randomly brought some home the other day and said they work well.
Also note that since that report was released they have announced they are licensed in Mexico (a quite populous country!)
They saySadly sales wont add until FY19.
Importantly we've now added our first market in North America. Mexico is the fifteenth largest market in the world for sales of Paracetamol tablets and of Ibuprofen oral tablets."
Probably one for those with patience unless someone else jumps on it, but with value hard to find and price nearing a point that has created a couple of big volume days , it all adds up to an interesting proposition
From my harmonic TA perspective I can see a bullish gartley as well.
Attachment 9387
... looks like the technical downtrend is now perfect - AFT just passed the Cross of Death :scared:;
Otherwise - I noticed that analysts upped somewhat their predictions for this (2018) financial losses (up by roughly by 10%). Otherwise they still seem to be upbeat.
Personally - haven't yet found anything they can do the big boys in the industry couldn't do either (and cheaper) ... but maybe their very own painkiller (forgot the name) turns into a best seller. Personally I still trust good old Aspirin - for that the side effects at least thoroughly tested (over more than 3 generations) and understood.
Discl: don't;
Im surprised you make this comment right now BP, downtrend has halted and beginning to reverse in my humble opinion.
And actually their Maxigesic patented combination of paracetemol and ibuprofen IS produced cheaper than the majors as its made in India , and it is already a major seller.
Aspirin is not suitable for those with high blood pressure, asthma, or for those on anti-depressants. You will be aware these three categories cover a fairly large proportion of people these days
Just making an innocent TA observation ... ;); And yes, Aspirin is not suitable for everybody, nor is it the only available painkiller on the market ...
But look - I don't have any heart blood in this one and did only quite cursory research on it (just couldn't find a reason to invest more time into them). I wish holders the best of luck. Wouldn't it be nice if NZ would produce in the pharmaceutical sector for a change a winner. We had already too many Genesis Research's and PEB's;