One of my favorite 'big picture' fundamentalists, worth a read - their latest rendition on a theme they've pushed for the past couple of weeks
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/...ket&banner=bsc
download the link at bottom for chart
Xerof
Printable View
One of my favorite 'big picture' fundamentalists, worth a read - their latest rendition on a theme they've pushed for the past couple of weeks
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/...ket&banner=bsc
download the link at bottom for chart
Xerof
Yes Xerof, interesting article from Black Flag.
From your experience do you find their predictions accurate?
Incidentally, I did mention on 24 Feb in another forum.
AUD.USD
NZD.USD
AUD.NZD
......... all look like shorts medium term IMO.
Arco
Arco,
re Black Swan article - I have found them to be early indicators of directional moves in the past, but like any commentary primarily based on fundamentals, the next data set can change a view pretty quickly. I like to keep a wary eye on what they are saying as it all helps to build a more complete perspective. Jack Crooks certainly gives an incisive perspective, IMO
But "In a New York minute
Everything can change
In a New York minute
Things can get pretty strange" - Don Henley
And yes, I have posted my plaudits re your earlier calls elsewhere. I was calling for one more exhaustive rally, before a change in trend, but was not to be. Certainly think the uptrend is over now, confirmed by the break of .7150. A few commentators now calling for 60 cents in the fullness of time. I'll take it a step at a time but will play from short side now
regards
Xerof
Spotted this on cyber-travels.......
MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Risks Skewed To Downside - ANZ
Risks surrounding AUD/USD have altered substantially, and rather than be a buyer on dips, ANZ now a seller of rallies.
Craig Ferguson, senior currency strategist, says there's still some potential for a final drive to above 0.8000, but confidence for such a move now only 20% to 30%. Now expects AUD/USD at 0.6600 by December 2005 and 0.6200 by December 2006. Pair now 0.7675.
Craig Ferguson was the most bullish on the Aud in the past 6-9months
Yeah, got butterflies in your tum now eh Craig !! ;)
A little more fundamental info
AMP Bet on Australian Dollar Drop as Growth Ebbs State Street Corp., the biggest provider of investment services to institutions, and AMP Capital Investors are betting the Australian dollar will end a three-year advance as the Asia-Pacific region's fifth-largest economy slows.
The firms plan to reduce their use of derivatives contracts that protect them from an appreciation in the Australian dollar, said executives at the companies. Colonial First State Investment Management, Australia's biggest investor, said it hasn't hedged since 2003 and considers the currency "overvalued.''
"The need to hedge international equity exposure back to Australian dollars is far less compelling than it was a few years ago,'' said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy and chief economist in Sydney at AMP, Australia's second-largest money manager. ``An Australian economy that is slowing and an interest- rate differential that is probably going to narrow with the U.S. also argue for a lower currency.'' Oliver said the Australian dollar may weaken to 75 U.S. cents by year-end, from 77 cents at 8:20 a.m. in New York on March 28. The currency is being buffeted by the slowest economic growth in four years last quarter and a record drop in consumer confidence this month. The proportion of manufacturers expecting to increase production is at a three-year low, according to an industry survey on March 18. The yield Australian government 10-year bonds offer above similar-maturity Treasuries narrowed to 1.10 percentage points March 28, half a percentage point below the level of a year ago. The average for the past two years is 1.35 percentage points.The Australian dollar is overvalued at these levels near 80 cents,'' Warren Bird, head of fixed interest and foreign exchange at Colonial in Sydney, said in an interview. "We have no interest in hedging now.'' Colonial First State Investment Management, Australia's largest money manager with A$100 billion of investments, doesn't hedge any of its A$2.6 billion of global equities. Bird hasn't protected against gains in the Australian dollar since July 2003 when the currency rose above 68 cents for the first time since February 1998. If Dryden, Oliver and Bird are correct, investors who listen to JPMorgan Chase & Co, Deutsche Bank AG and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may suffer. The median forecast of the 36 traders, investors and strategists polled between Jan. 4 and Jan. 20 was for a drop to 76 cents, according to a Bloomberg survey published Jan. 27.
Slowing economic growth and a narrowing interest-rate advantage will weaken the Australian dollar by Dec. 31, said Oliver, who has worked at AMP since 1984.
Australia's economy grew 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, the government said on March 2. The slowest pace of expansion in four years spurred speculation the Reserve Bank of Australia will limit interest rate increases this year. The central bank lifted its benchmark rate to 5.5 percent on March 2, the same day the growth figures for the final three months of last year were published. It was the first increase in 15 months. The Federal Reserve has increased its target rate for overnight loans between banks seven times since June to 2.75 and said inflation pressures are picking up. The statement spurred speculation the Fed will scrap its policy of gradual increases. The Australian dollar may also decline because traders are betting on its advance in near record numbers, said Oliver. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on an advance in the Australian dollar compared with those on a drop -- so-called net longs -- was 54,991 on March 22, more than three times the yearly average of 16,224 figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. The positioning story is negative, with all the traders long the Australian dollar, there is less of them to buy,'' said Oliver. A trader who is long an asset bets on it gaining.
To be fair on Craig, he did say a break of .7770 would be a signal that the (double)top at .8005 and .7088 was now "in."
My only current concern is that the decline does seem rather orderly, but if it can gain some momentum to the downside over the next few days, it'll be safe to stay short for the medium term target of around 65 cents.
Note that as well as record longs on the IMM, the Uridashi maturity profile for April/May is also a rather large number[:0][:0], so keep an eye on new issuances - if they don't appear, then the overhang of AUD longs may be just a tad too much for the market to handle.....[:p]
Commodities don't look that flash either, Kiwi looks terrible - USD looks good for the moment....
Oh well, may as well just go and sell some more....:D:D
Xerof
0931 GMT [Dow Jones] ABN-AMRO says latest IMM spec positioning data (released before Fri's close) up to and including Tue Mar 22 shows USD short positions were cut to $11.9B from $15.3B in the prior week. A reduction in CHF, JPY and GBP longs made up most of the shift, although AUD longs continue to defy gravity, remaining close to recent record longs.
Might have been a bit of long liquidation over the Easter period, but oh dear, this could get nasty.
Caveat Emptor, as they say:D:D
Xerof
PS This fact (no major liquidation) may explain why its been quite an orderly decline so far...
The Aussie and Kiwi have historically been volatile currencies but the factors underlying the strength of the past few years is clear. Interest rates in Australia and New Zealand have been high relative to the other major currencies and commodity prices are generally firm. In March of 2004 the interest rate advantage began to deteriorate. There is a delay between changes in the interest differential and when it affects a currency, but it has been a year and this is a negative sign for the AUD. The CRB index rose 23% in 2002, 9% in 2003, 11% last year, but the cycles argue they have formed a significant peak. The factors that previously supported the Aussie are now weighing against it.
AS long as RBA don't do anything stupid, downside dominates for this week
0.7700 currently
Xerof
Xerof
The short term uptrend line has been broken,
and is being tested for change of polarity.
I will be initially looking at 7568, with
thoughts of 7324-7446 which is about where
the medium term uptrend line should intersect.
Currently 7669.
Arco
AUD has done five waves off its circa 80 cent high, and has held trendline support circa .7625. Bounced nicely today and looks like it'll rally towards .7750/80 area before heading lower again in killer wave C
Xerof
7813 should hold any further advance....
reversal southbound imminent IMO
Arco, I don't disagree with you, but here's another EW interpretation to consider. Hmmm
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/...hnicalanalysis
regards
Xerof
Good Evening Xerof
Many thanks for the link.
I will study their EW counts and give my
thoughts tomorrow AM.
I took my profit on AUD a few days ago, and have not
re-entred as yet. I would prefer to see if the 7813
will hold as resistance before taking the plunge.
arco
Good Morning Xerof
I tend to do my own wave-thing so I will
leave long term EW counts for the
E-wavers to argue over. ;)
My interest is in the short/medium term
movements, and my thoughts are as follows.
The recent high was a '5'
The recent low is a 5 leg move, forming either 1 or A.
7813 (previously mentioned) is a possible strong
resistance area IMO. (If this fails AUD's next move
will be higher). That line is holding so far, and
overnight action has formed a Bearish Engulfing Candle,
with the oscillator dipping below zero.
arco
Good Afternoon Arco,
To my untrained Gartley eye, was there not a bearish Gartley evident on the daily AUD/USD chart, which has broken to downside to perfection in the past 24 hours?
Xerof
IMO Aud looks ready to tank lower
Xerof
Butterfly - Well spotted.
We now need to see a break of the recent pivot low.
arco
Recent lows around .7630 complete a, .7803 seen few days ago was b, wave c now in progress IMO, and might be a chance early this week to sell (or add if already short) at around 7750, (stop above 7780) then tora tora tora, dive dive dive[:p][:p][:p]
good luck, happy trading
Xerof
edit: has become a little more convoluted so wave counts mentioned above no longer apply - curently in a c or ii to equal first a at 7803
Well, here we are in the mid 77's as forewarned. Will now run a trailing sell stop entry, as this rally might just stretch to low 78's
Xerof
IMO 7812 could provide formidable resistance,
forming the end of a 'B' wave before 5 down.
Hers a chart showing the levels
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/uploads/04262005.gif
arco
Easy 50 pips overnight for short term traders......
Here's the chart.....I hope.
(Please let me know if its not showing).
.........Currently +64 pips
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/char...%20Aud.Usd.gif
not showing Arco
Thanks Xerof
A problem with the image host.
Try this now.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...hr_aud.usd.gif
arco
Yes, the famous Gartley is there for all to see !!
Thanks Arco
someone mind explaning what the gartley is ? and how one can see it and what it means ?
*am going to buy that trading by candlesticks book at boarders, will start to play with good old FX , initial capital of 2k, risking 200 in the stop losses, using mini conracts via IG markets*
using the 2k outlay as training if i lose it all then meh only 10 weeks wages for me :D
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp will give you a brief outline, but Arco is the main man for Gartleys.
regards
Xerof
p.s. Dazza, strongly suggest you start with a demo account before tossing your capital at it. Rather see you in for the long term than blow your dough in 5 minutes and give up
Dazza
I have most, if not all, of the candlestick trading manuals. My recommendation would be Steve Nisons 'Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques'. It is much more in-depth than the others.Quote:
quote:*am going to buy that trading by candlesticks book at Borders
There is more to candlesticks (or any price movement analysis) than just a bunch of patterns, names, formations...the other books are far too brief. I cannot emphasise this enough. IMO it is not advisable to trade on candlestick patterns alone, and you will need to use them with other indicators to confirm possible trades.
Re Gartley
One of the formations that Larry Pesavento (Fibonacci Ratios with Pattern Recognition / Profitable Patterns for Stock Trading )looks for is the Gartley pattern, which is named after H. M. Gartley who wrote 'Profits in the Stock Market' in 1935.
arco
Dazza
I should have mentioned this site which might get you started
while you wait for your choosen candlestick book.
http://www.daytradingcoach.com/daytr...ick-course.htm
arco
cheers for the reply, and yeah i will look into other indicators thanks,
currently with IG markets, and it seems their charts are stupid... no long term stuff in their charts unfortunately eh....
thanks for the books, ill go find it somewhere
The pattern may be an emerging Butterfly, not a Gartley.
Stopped out for +26 pips.......small beer [V]
Hehe, also stopped for +3 - I'll have to go for a free wine tasting Arco:D:D
Heres one for you to peruse Xerof....
discovered today.....and still trying
to understand.
The partial Ceppro v7 display below provides us with a glimpse into the future for the daily AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR.
The top display uses ALL AVAILABLE (Historical) daily price data for the Australian Dollar (including nite session) fed into the program.
The center 'grid' display uses only the most recent price data, approximately two years worth of recent data, to formulate its results. Like the top Historical display, the calculations are strictly 'cyclical' (no mathematics involved) in that it uses pattern matching and detrending techniques, and then the final results are formulated into 'clusters' to isolate the 'peak' dates for trading purposes (the expected turns).
The bottom 'grid' uses no pattern matching or detrending at all. It is based strictly on mathematics (market geometry - X/Y 'time/price' relationships) to formulate its results (these are called 'Fdates').
Note that the bottom two grids are in complete agreement although the method of calculation is night and day. The upper date list (Historical) is in agreement with the exception that its turn dates are shifted one bar to the left.
http://69.94.4.154/userpics/pic3736.gif
http://69.94.4.154/cgi-bin/webbbs_config.pl?read=3736
I have made some notes on my charts, so will be
interested to see what transpires.
arco
Arco,
This is the 'home' website for this guy.
http://www.profitmaxtrading.com/
The FAQ section has a bit more detail of his themes, and he has, of course, posted a few (profitable) examples of some calls he has made. These will doubtless be the most spectactular (and correct) ones;);)
I note he has also called a turn for the CAD in the thread below the AUD thread. Expressed (I think) as CAD about to rally, so USD/CAD about to sell off.
As you say, might be worth seeing how these turn out over the next couple of weeks.
regards
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Yes I am familiar with Rick Ratchford / Profitmax
from way back when we were both interested in
trying to get out head around Gann swing timing/dates.
However, he now seems to be using the Ceppro v7 programme
for calculating swing dates. I'm interested to see how this
programme performs, but there does not appear to be a trial
period.
http://www.trade2succeed.com/installs/ceppro/
Any FX positions open presently ??
arco
29/4Well, yes, certainly a good bearish pattern so farQuote:
quote:The pattern may be an emerging Butterfly,
not a Gartley
with around 120 pips top to recent bottom.
Although a "Scouting Party' ventured across the
demarcation line @ 7812 they were repelled at 7840
by a large Cabbage White. Butterflies are as powerful
as bears it would seem.
To cap it all t oscillator has dropped negative of zero.
More to come, me thinks.
http://chineseculture.about.com/libr.../butterfly.gif
arco
Arco, good afternoon,
no medium term positions open at the moment, just jobbing a few small positions around.
Generally like the USD at this stage, but don't usually trade much before payrolls, so getting on with some documentation for the "Xerof fund", for want of a better name.
Yes, although I picked last Fridays messy 'spike highs' correctly, it left me square and slightly less motivated this week.
I note the CAD 'turned' last night, and AUD looks to have turned also - your friend at Profitmax might be worth following.
cheers
Xerof
Anybody brave enough to sell a clean break of 7730? Might be interesting, as in wave 5 now, targeting 7580 (courtesy of a Black Swan trade setup recommendation, with a stop at 7770)
I've got enough positions on board at the moment, so won't be participating
Xerof
Yes there is always a danger of getting too
many positions on.
However, I do think AUD is a good candidate
for a lower move for a number of reasons.
7813 should hold as resistance.
Areas where some support may be found - 7568,
and lower if broken at 7324.
arco
Just spotted this..........
Dollar set to plunge
By Nicki Bourlioufas
May 12, 2005
The good time could be over with the local dollar set to plunge below US70 cents as commodity prices come off highs and foreign investment into Australia slows, according to Westpac Bank.
Westpac has forecast the local dollar will fall to US72 cents by December 2005 and to US64 cents by December 2006.
"The Australian dollar looks set for a fall in the second half of this year," said Westpac in a research report released today.
"The fundamentals do not improve in 2006 either. In fact, the unfavourable trend accelerates."
"We will see a combination of factors which have been positive over the last few years become negative," said Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan
Westpac says a narrowing gap between US and Australian interest rates will slow foreign investment into the country as the return on investments in Australia becomes relatively less attractive. That will drive down demand for the local unit.
While Australian interest rates are forecast to stay on hold at 5.50 per cent, US rates are set to climb to 4 per cent by the year's end and to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2006.
"With the US Federal Reserve moving short rates (up) faster than the long end sells off, there will be another consistent weight on the currency through most of the period under discussion," said Westpac. The pace of global growth is also set to slow, "which is a sign that commodity prices will start to peak out," said Mr Hanlan.
Already commodity prices have eased, which has hurt resource and oil stocks like BHP Billiton, Woodside Petroleum and Rio Tinto.
Westpac expects the huge US current aco**** deficit will stablilise, which will push back up demand for the US dollar, to the detriment of the local dollar.
Westpac forecasts Australian interest rates will stay on hold through 2005.
"We have argued consistently that the March rate hike was going to be the last in the cycle. We have argued that there is evidence that the economy was already slowing and that the household sector would be particularly sensitive to the move.
The Reserve Bank's official communication is now dovetailing with that view," said Westpac.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...5E1702,00.html
Anyone else go short on this pair?
Nice orderly drop so far.
Coming up to some resistance at present but if we get through this next biggie is mid .75's
Cheers Slam
Hi Slam
Yes as I said yesterday.....
"However, I do think AUD is a good candidate
for a lower move for a number of reasons"
Entered short at 7720 - Currently +65
arco
Arco, good to see you are following your Buffet motto:)
7630 KEY
Yes Xerof, I am often thinking opposite to the crowd,
and I often get butterflies :)
Interested to know the key level 7630 mentioned
is based on what please ? (Inside info ;))
FYI I have areas that could give some support @
Circa 7612-7628 - last 3 support pivots.
7568 - 7324 Gann Levels.
7429 - Fib 50.
Yesterdays (EOD) black Marubozu
is considered a very bearish candle.
Go with the flow.
arco
No inside info, just looking at daily chart, it has held there twice recently, and as you say, three times if you count the earlier bounce from slightly lower.
IME, third time is usually lucky, i.e it breaks
Xerof
Hi arco
Shorted at 7721
My resistance/support mentioned was just taken from a daily support level.(as Xerof and yourself stated)
only my 3rd day trading the forex, just trying to work it all out guys:)
Cheers
Slam
If this is the correct EW count then there should
be more southward movement to come medium term.
http://69.94.4.154/userpics/pic3810.gif
Looks pretty good to me Arco - also seeing similar count elsewhere - 7500 target for current wave 3? (then 7570 again before hard south below 7500)
Xerof
Still holding this one as a longer term trade
and currently + 126. Looking at the area
7568 - a Gann line for possible hiccup.
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
Here's the chart.....I hope.
(Please let me know if its not showing).
Hi, do you have a formula for this Gartley butterfly, I remember seeing it many years ago, I believe there is a bearish butterfly and a bullish one. Thanks
.
........Currently +64 pips
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/char...%20Aud.Usd.gif
Hello Rosemary,
Try this as a starter:
www.investopedia.com/terms/g/gartley.asp
Welcome aboard the forex threads
Xerof
Short closed at 8.30 am - 7558.
+134
what happens afta point C on EW
and point D on gartley?
cycle repeats or?
Just a quick look here, but on the 1,2,4 and 8 hour chars I see a Triagle forming. If so a breakout should be close.
Will look some more:)
Cheers
Simon
And after a bounce or 2 down we went:)
Hi all
I get this one at the top of a channel on the Daily also ending an abc
wave and the 61.8 fib from the .7499 lows on the 2nd May
may start another 5 wave down
worth watching for the turn anyway.
anyone else agree?:)
cheers
slam
Edit: End of wave 4 and the larger EW wave scale (not too hot on the terminology yet):)
Morning Slam
As I see it, AUD is in a 5 wave move from
April 29th and currently forming c of leg 4
before reversing form leg 5.
Possible Gann resistances at 7690-7751
arco
Morning arco
Yep, same interpretation but my explanation probably wasn't clear. The 5(v) wave down I referred to is the 5th leg of the larger wave (the abc we just finishing being the 4th)
So just got to find the right reversal point if/when it happens for the 5th (larger)
Clear as mud:)
cheers slam
PS: still looking at the EUR/GBP and reading furiously[:I]
Morning All
Well this one pushed up overnight and now leg c of 4 is close to crossing leg 1 of the 5 making the count invalid.
imo if it runs to far passed.7740.
also popped up above the channel.
needs to reverse soon to keep the 5 in order
cheers
slam
Morning Slam
O/n spike to 7746 which is pretty close the the
Gann resistance I mentioned of 7751.
Major Gann resistance above that at 7812.
Heres a few EW Wave 4 guidelines.
(If we are in wave 4?)
Wave 4 is rarely a Zigzag based correction.
It is common for both Waves 4 & 2 to have approximately the same price movement.
Wave 4 will most often retrace more than 20% of Wave 3, including internal points.
Wave 4 will very often retrace about 38.2% of Wave 3.
Wave 4 does not often retrace Wave 3 by more than 50%.
Wave 4 will often retrace into the price territory of previous Wave 4 of Wave 1.
Wave 4 will most often retrace to the end of the previous Wave 4 of one lesser degree.
EW is an complex matter....you only have to
see the e-wavers disagreeing on counts to
know its difficult.
arco
Hi arco
The rule that I was working around for my theory is that wave 4 shouldn't cross wave 1 which it was close to doing on several charts.
So a lift higher would negate the count.
Cheers
slam
well all I know is it cost me a 100 mini pips... [B)]
I'd read some report (blackswantrading) correlating the AUD with the Dow Jones transportation index which it reckoned was about to collapse. Clearly the commodity prices increase is more overriding factor
In classic Australian parlance "No worries, mate"
Slam
Looking again perhaps we are on leg X (3 waves),
which can theoretically go no higher than 'B'
of the Zig Zag. If fact it may even be forming
into a double ZZ if we get a reversal of X.
I tend to use EW minimally so I could be wrong.
I will look again later.
arco
Maybe more plausible as the channel has been broken and the 5 under threat
I will have to get out my book for the variations on dbl zz’s though;)
cheers
slam
still have a few pips to go on a daily line chart though before 5 is invalid
Edit: need a close above .7744
Look no further.....;)
Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:
Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.
Wave W must be a Zigzag.
Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
Wave Y must be a Zigzag
Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
Wave Z must be a Zigzag
Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.
Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:
The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.
Cheers arco (I think:))
As someone once said.......quote
EW theorists engage in academic masturbation with their insistence in being able to label anything and everything. It's why so many folks don't like EW. Well, EW .....don't always work and they're not always obvious. You DON'T have to trade them everyday. Find the high probability ones and trade them. And the high probability ones are found by thinking a bit outside the box
:D
IMVuninformedO, and without digging too deeply, there seem to be Bearish Gartleys apparent on 4 and 8 hourly and daily charts? Possible reversal area may coincide with your aforementioned Major Gann resistance at 7812 Arco (BTW, I didn't realise Gann was in the military:D:D)
Then again, might just be one of those rampant trouser snakes rearing its ugly head - somehow don't think so though
Xerof
If i look at a number of USD crosses eg AUD, NZD, or Eur over the last 6 months I see bullish gartleys. Point A for the Euro is the Xmas/New Year peak at 1.36. Pont B - early Feb 1.28 , Point C = mid March at 1.34 and from then on D is not clear to me. Was it a failed D at 1.28 in mid April or was that an aberations and the true D reached at the recent 1.20ish lows? As has been pointed out on Tactical Trader if AB = CD then the Euro should have bottomed at about 1.25.
I dont know whether that invalidates the pattern for the Euro, but it still seems within coeey to me... If this correction happening now regained some legs and hit 1.25 that would be more mathmatically /aesthetically correct.
For the Kiwi point A is Mid March at 0.7450 coinciding with the Euro's point C, Point B is early April 0.7050 , Point C at early May 0.7350 and Point D at early Jun 0.7000. In this case the maths of AB =CD is picture perfect!
So, what does it all mean ?
Peat, see NZD.USD thread
Morning Peat
Your date assumptions appear correct but two pointsQuote:
quote:So, what does it all mean ?
have also to be considered.......
1.Gartleys and Butterflies have a 30% failure rate.
2.Gartleys can fail and turn into Butterflies.
arco
Quote:
quote:20/6 - there seem to be Bearish Gartleys apparent on 4 and 8 hourly and daily charts
Break of and close below short term trendline at 7750 should provide confirmation.Quote:
quote:one of those rampant trouser snakes rearing its ugly head - somehow don't think so though
Rampant trouser snake appears to be pulling his head in[B)][B)]
Xerof
Watch out for the heavy Gann emplacement at 7812.
(Mentioned 17/6 and still relevant).
If you look at the AUD 15 min upto 3 hour charts you will see a possibility of a Broadening Top forming. (Example below)
http://www.trendmacro.com/a/goodman/...0derfBroad.gif
The Broadening (or Megaphone) top is a relatively rare formation that looks like an inverted triangle. Instead of increasingly narrowing fluctuations in prices, the broadening formation is formed by price swings that are increasingly widening. The most common of these patterns consists of three successively higher peaks and another line connecting the two lows combine to give the price formation its distinctive pattern. (These patterns are rarely found at market bottoms).
arco
If you apply this theory to the AUD chart times you have mentioned, and if we are on wave 4 down, wave 5 up (last before heading down out of the triangle)the bottom should be circa .7735
and the last top, 5, circa .7810.
This would fit with the Gann level you mentioned at .7812
Probably stating the obvious to the skilled, but thought I would anyway[8D]
Cheers
Slam
Edit: we may have already come off 4 at NZ1:00pm today at .7740
Well, Corporal Gann, with a mere 3 rounds in his colt 45 seems to have fended 'em off, for now anyway.Quote:
quote:Break of and close below short term trendline at 7750 should provide confirmation.
Xerof
Ahem, never send a boy......
Xerof
Thats the latest Michael Jackson saying isnt it?
:D
Well, Major Gann and his band of merry chaps are dug in
at 7812 and appear to be intent on repelling the
invading forces. Last post 7811.
Broadening Wedge could be on its last legs.
Slam
Spot on. I hope you rode the beast from Ghent to Aix?Quote:
quote:the bottom should be circa .7735
and the last top, 5, circa .7810.
So we were left galloping, Joris and I,
Past Looz and past Tongres, no cloud in the sky;
The broad sun above laughed a pitiless laugh,
’Neath our feet broke the brittle bright stubble like chaff;
Till over by Dalhem a dome-spire sprang white,
And ‘Gallop,’ gasped Joris, ‘for Aix is in sight!’
arco
Hi arco
Did indeed:D
Thanks for the heads up on the pattern
Cheers
slam
looking for an extended 5th any luck
if we can get through the 61.8 fib;)
well, couldn't get through so back up she goesQuote:
quote:Originally posted by slam
looking for an extended 5th any luck
if we can get through the 61.8 fib;)
Slam
Can't figure your EW count. Can you paste a chart?
I am still considering the scenario I mentioned on 17/6
Looking again perhaps we are on leg X (3 waves),
which can theoretically go no higher than 'B'
of the Zig Zag. If fact it may even be forming
into a double ZZ if we get a reversal of X.
So perhaps the 3rd wave ended at 7809 and reversal
is in play.
EOD chart is showing a 2nd Harami with small divergence.
arco
arco
Just different time frames
I was looking at a lhr chart and the pattern from the expanding triangle, very short term
(just procrastinating really)
Sorry to confuse the issue[:I]
Cheers
Slam
Might now be turning from a Broadening Top
into a Diamond Top.
http://www.coveredcallswins.com/char...s/Imaged20.jpg
Oh, the grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men,
He marched them up to the top of the hill
but then when he saw Major Gann
he marched Them down again.
Intended to post this yesterday but
ran out of time.
So here we see the power of TA.
Many signals.
Broadening Top, Twin Harami's,
Diamond Top, Major Gann
and his merry resistance band,
etc, etc.
Entered short @ .7800 (red arrow)... + 86 currently
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta.../megaphone.gif
Slam - are you on board the southbound express ?
arco
Hi arco
yep, still in there:)
That chart looks a bit like a bullish gartley, but on last nights action now looks more like a butterfly
I'm not to hot on the exact xabcd ratios, but just a quick observation
Any thoughts either way arco?
Running a tight stop on this one atm anyway;)
cheers
slam
I've only recently been watching the AUD/USD cross.....I took my first small punt short at .7880
lakedaemonian
took that position a while back, mid feb was the last time it was around there.
wish I had your nerves
nice wee profit now:)
cheers
slam
Slam
The plot was looking like it could form a Gartley
or a Butterfly - hence the red lines I placed to see if
anyone was awake.;)
Currently the action is approaching the Butterfly
possible (short term?) reversal zone which starts
circa 7703.******
So thats the obvious spot to start looking for something
to happen. Medium term that nasty red candle overnight
certainly gives a bit of a bearish look.
***** Always remember the Gartley and Butterfly
patterns have a 30% failure rate so nothing can
be absolutely certain.
arco
Recent low 7692 - which is not a million
miles away from Mr Ganns 7703.
I've taken the profit, and very nice too
for a stress free weekend.
covered position in my sleep:)
nice wee trade
Always good to insure you have blanket cover.
What now arco?
imo we won't see a big corective on this one.
On the 8hr it even looks like we could be shaping up for a 3,5.
Has major gann got anything lerking around that could cause a problem?
cheers
slam
Slam
Its was Major Ganns troops at 7568 who
proved their worth by repelling last nights
advance whilst you slept blisfully unaware
of the battle in progress.
AUD is cornered with 2 more battalions above
at 7629 and 7690.
I have no doubt they will double back and with
the help of Marshall Riley's Army eventually
conquer the position at 7568, run for home, heading
due south for Lindisfarne.
arco
PS. Those who played with the Megaphone entry
point mentioned will be sitting with a nice
proportion of the maximum 217 pips in their
account - I trust.
;)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
PS. Those who played with the Megaphone entry
point mentioned will be sitting with a nice
proportion of the maximum 217 pips in their
account - I trust.
Cheers arco
might look to re-enter around the 7690 if it gets there, but I think the first may be the last
slam
Blasted throught with very little hesitation.Quote:
quote:30.6 - AUD is cornered with 2 more battalions above
at 7629 and 7690.
I have no doubt they will double back and with
the help of Marshall Riley's Army eventually
conquer the position at 7568, run for home, heading
due south for Lindisfarne.
Megaphone entry blowing its trumpet with
circa 300 pips uder the belt for players.
Nice......when a score works out.
Watch 7480 - potential double bottom? or start of avalanche - go with the flow
At 7384 it would be getting pretty overcooked
in the short term. (Gann also at 7438/7500).
And further down in the murky depths the old
uptrend line beckons - always a possibility
perhaps.
Hey, but what do I know [V]]