http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/SCY001.gif
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Phaedrus,
I like your charts, which charting package do you use? Do you mostly trade off your technical analysis?
Thanks Phaedrus, to a TA newbie like myself your charts speak volumes!
PHEADRUS I will give you a laugh from a scotty charting system. I go to stocknessmonster.com which is free. I log in the company plus the moving average required then print it. The chart is to small so i go down the road to my mates place and get it enlarged. I copy out at home and stick whatever treadlines in place. It might not be the best way but its free.
THANKS FOR YOUR INPUT THIS YEAR CHEERS MACDUNK.
MACDUNK
Have a look at the charts ( NZX and ASX )available free of charge via www.fatprophets.com.au
They may or may not be suited to your requirements
I use them a lot and find them to be very useful , with a heap of different options available
They show up clearly on the computer screen but they dont seem to print out very clearly --- maybe they are designed that way or maybe it is my printer , I dont know
Cheers
The expected support at 80 cents has appeared (albeit at 79 cents) giving a new reaction low which nicely confirms the previously tentative trendline. Note that while support at 80cents was Expected, it was NOT predicted. - a subtle distinction, but an important one.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v4...456/SCY001.gif
Cragga, I use MetaStock software and trade solely from TA. I use FA to select the stocks that I am "allowed" to trade. I do not hold SCY - the chart was posted because it was such a good example of how support and resistance work.
Phaedrus can you define the difference between expected and predicted?
K1w1,
A prediction is a forecast of an event that you are confident will happen.
An expectation carries less certainty. If you have a reasonably good transport service, you expect trains to be mostly on time. It would be a little rash though to predict that the 10.00 train would arive at 10.00.
There is no point in getting hung up on semantics here. Whatever the odds were of SCY finding support at this level, the important thing is whether it did or not, regardless of the words you use. Had SCY continued on down with its 2 month downtrend, I would have written a very different post. Something like "SCY has not found support at around 80 cents as expected. (Resistance, when broken, often becomes Support) This is significant, especially since it also takes price action below the current trendline that had held good for 7 months. If I held this stock I would Sell. Now."
There is also the important matter of ego involvement. If anyone makes a prediction, they then have a vested interest in that event occuring. Their reputation is at stake. This inevitably leads to a loss of objectivity ("I'll be proved right, just you wait and see")
With an expectation, the focus is on the market action - something either will or will not happen. You, as an impartial observer, simply react to the market. You are not right or wrong, you just take action A or action B depending on whether something has or has not happened. No emotional involvement at all. Anyone who has trouble attaining this degree of detachment could try an interesting experiment. Take a trade and tell NOBODY, not even your spouse. You will most probably find that you feel much more free to buy/hold/sell than you would had you posted your Buy decision on ShareTrader, for example. See, you can be "wrong" and no-one would even know. You have no vested interest in proving yourself "right". There are all too many examples here of people who have "nailed their colours to the mast" and then felt compelled to strenuously uphold their chosen stock regardless of how badly it has performed. I believe that if they had not made their position public, they would have quietly sold just as soon as it became evident that they had made a mistake. Never underestimate your ability to deceive yourself. It is only too easy to project your hopes and preconceptions onto your "chosen" stocks, thus losing your objectivity.
It pays to make your trading as ego-free as you possibly can.
SCY has failed to sustain the support postulated at around 80 cents. (Resistance, when broken, often becomes Support) This is significant, especially since it also takes price action below the current trendline - one that had held good for 7 months. In addition, price action has breached a 7x ATR trailing stop and a 35 day Variable Moving Average. The plot at the top of the chart is a 30 day Directional Movement Indicator. This fairly conservative trend indicator gave a Sell signal early last month. None of these indicators have triggered any previous Sell signals.
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-...0/SCY29002.gif
THE KING says even though the chart shows the trend of prices the value of turnover is next to nothing,, your sell signals is at the Ex-Div time of the company as most Co`s is there weak time,, like a lot of NZ stock its just a plain week MARKET.. this is a GOOD stock.. [^]
BRICKS has just concluded a trip to Christchurch and an interview with SCY. MD Rick Hellings who pass on the following information about Smiths City position and the way ahead.
The current position of SCY is its expanding as much as possible against the changing trend of retail and the Norm Harvey type of expansion, by enlarging stores to a min of 20,000 square meters floor plates. At Greymouth, South Dunedin and Palmerston North.
Finance operations are a Diamond as it lets them do what the Bank love, to put it in a nut shell going gang busters.
The property division is small but moving ahead more in 2007.
North Island expansion will continue at a slower rate but more sound footing as most of all the nta of SCY is over 77 cents but all is paid for and little outside debt.
Conclusion. Rick is or seems comfortable with the company`s position with an eye on retail constant change and Australian attacks over the Tasman which says will hold Smith`s position and stated Div`s are approx 50% of profits which will be continued to be PAYED..
Bricks,
You've either blown cover or taken English lessons over the Christmas break???
Complete sensible sentences!!
OMG [:p]
The year is 2007 and BOB your still the same a NO COMMENT personQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Sideshow Bob
Bricks,
You've either blown cover or taken English lessons over the Christmas break???
Complete sensible sentences!!
OMG [:p]
about the SUBJECT so just do your best in the MARKET,, Regards.. [8D]
It's because of the difference in resolution between screen and printer. The average dpi of a computer is screen is 96, whereas most printers are now 600dpi (some are even 1200 or higher). Unless there has been some interpretation taking place between the two (ie: some web pages have a "printer friendly" link) you are most likely going to see it about 7x smaller than the equivalent screen represenation.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by whiteheron
They show up clearly on the computer screen but they dont seem to print out very clearly --- maybe they are designed that way or maybe it is my printer , I dont know
Cheers
Think the rat has slipped between the CRACK.. [8D]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by StainlessSteelRat
It's because of the difference in resolution between screen and printer. The average dpi of a computer is screen is 96, whereas most printers are now 600dpi (some are even 1200 or higher). Unless there has been some interpretation taking place between the two (ie: some web pages have a "printer friendly" link) you are most likely going to see it about 7x smaller than the equivalent screen represenation.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by whiteheron
They show up clearly on the computer screen but they dont seem to print out very clearly --- maybe they are designed that way or maybe it is my printer , I dont know
Cheers
The South Dunedin store is the old Mitre 10 building and it definately much better than the 2 stores in town (1 retail store that floods when it rains and 1 outlet store that they appear to flog off repossessed items and shop-soiled items)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by BRICKS
The current position of SCY is its expanding as much as possible against the changing trend of retail and the Norm Harvey type of expansion, by enlarging stores to a min of 20,000 square meters floor plates. At Greymouth, South Dunedin and Palmerston North.
While I am a SCY holder, I generally don't shop with them
WELL been a bit disappointed with the little response to RICKS statements on the current SCY position,, did refer to him that the investing people put SCY on the same standing as AIR lack of support took a take over in AU to get AIR large price may be the same for SCY there are AU firms out that want a chain of store in the South Island to name one is J&B electrics,, good buying back to AU WEDNESDAY.. [8D]
SCY has just gone x div and HOLDING.. [8D]
INTRIM report out the OUTLOOK comments are good stated the following:
Moved to larger premises at Greymouth, South Dunedin and Timaru with new bolt on company`s of Selectrix and Star Appliances in Rotorua, New stores Smith City named at Palmerston North a FEB opening at Gisborne also stated looking to t/o finance and properties as they ARISE.. [8D]
The comments do appear favourable. Recently in Dunedin, Powerstore merged with Selectrix and moved into the Selectrix store.
BRICKS thought you should know some small changes in holdings @ SCY,
Increase in numbers holdings of up 72 to 2,450 appears some small KIWI like the stock.
People with the surname Smith 6 in number have appeared in the top twenty list for the first time are they the original family of the store dose any one know??.
With a share price @ 64 cents and NTA @ 86 cents not many on the NZX are in the same position.
But still the engine behind this company is the Smithcorp Finance Limited this is where the real gains are made that Buys the new stores.
Have a happy day.. BRICKS..
Hello all
I’ve recently started to have a look at Smiths and have a few questions from the Annual Reports that BRICKS or any of you may be able to help me with.
1. ‘07 operating cash flow was negative (due to increased working capital). Have any comments been given as to why it increased?
2. Simthcorp Finance interest received less interest paid has gone very negative over the last couple of years?
---see attachment
3. Smithcorp’s interest differential is usually slightly negative. If Smithcorp is run at arms length, shouldn’t it be positive?
4. The unearned income provision of the finance book has dramatically increased from an average 8% of finance receivables to 24% over the last 3 years? I assume the unearned income is future interest, is this correct? If so I can’t reconcile the increase even with the general increase in interest rates?
5. In the ’07 report, Smiths borrowed $6mil from F&P Finance above the normal lending facility?
Any help on this greatly appreciated.
DEAR LTI with questions like that you should just ring up Rick Hellings MD. and ask him direct and if you don't like the answer tell him, if you do like the answer then BUY some they are at a very good price at the MOMENT..
You're not the only one with "doubts", LTI! This stock has been getting sold down all year.
Way back in January the OBV stopped rising, the trendline was broken and SCY went into an on-going downtrend. (Red arrows are sell signals) The chart shows some interesting features. Once the support at 64 cents was broken, it became a resistance level (this is fairly common). The circled sharp drops in the 'On Balance Volume' mark where bigger holders (the smart money?) were selling.
SCY appears to have found good support at 56 cents - but then it had support at 64 cents too - for a while.
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WHAT we need is a supporters CLUB..
Many thanks for your replies. I'm not for or against the company yet, just started looking at it. I don't like to call MDs until I have as good an understanding of the company as possible so not to waste their time. Hence this post.
WELL its steady neddy as we go profit up 1.3% to $1.759 million and a 1.5 cent div Feb 15, thanks.
The big move is the purchase of 100% of L V Martin now fully owned and able to control better along with joining Narta. NZ an org that buys appliances in bulk to sale while the NZ market is flooded with these type of items but will give SCY the edge.
ITS a slow road but a sure one, that is the real name of this GAME..
WELL bugger me another bargain has turned up below 50 cents but worth more is this another case of stagnation or just a lack of BUYERS NO matter have increased the holding 25%.. In Oz these people are call distressed SELLERS..
Bricks, SCY has been in an accelerating downtrend for over a year, so far.
How can it be a good investment (let alone a bargain) if the shareprice keeps falling?
I can but admire your fortitude.
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THANKS Steve for your observations in the Southland it appears one big store is enough for its demands ,But as the South Island is now well covered the move is to the North Island with 7 new stores starting up with the latest at Gisborne for $2.3 million cash paid it is good to note with all these real holdings the NTA is 86 cents for every 50 cent share so this is just another bargain on the NZX and to boot BRICKS is buying the STOCK..
Well if BRICKS is buying it is a priority SELL
SYC still chugging along at its pace cause there is NO news like always but you can shop at a store near YOU..
SCY appear to have not been as badly affected as other retailers so far...
Smiths City Group's profit eases
Smiths City Group's annual net profit has dropped, adding to the string of bad news coming from New Zealand's retailers.
The listed Christchurch big-ticket retailer announced its annual net trading surplus had eased 1.7 per cent to $3.56 million, from the previous April year. The final unimputed dividend has fallen from 4c to 3c, payable on August 15.
The final dividend lowers the unimputed annual rate from 5.5c to 4.5c, giving a yield of 11.25% on the last traded share price of 40c.
Got the pay check today how sweet it is,, Well we lost 58 small shareholder to the top 20 holders just get bigger they now hold 71.76% of the company..
The new store at TAURANGA is now up and running which makes the 6 store in the top North Island for the Group, the quite growing chain and one day some bigger fish will take
NOTICE..
Well Smith`s had there annual meeting yesterday and only the time when you get the good oil on what there doing told us they are moving two Power house stores to bigger buildings
and pointed out that the 8 stores in the North Island produce 21% of the profits need more people to live in the South Island..
The chairman also pointed out what a good price the share was @ near 12% div and half the NTA value he feels its a BARGAIN along with BRICKS..
Well Bricks, as I have said before, I can but admire your fortitude. You have been a steadfast supporter of this stock through thick and thin. Unfortunately, though, it has been mostly thin - SCY has fallen 45% in 20 months.
This worm may be close to turning, though. A sale at the Bid or the Ask would now trigger buy signals.
After firing off a slew of Sell signals, SCY has been in a nice, tidy, orderly, accelerating downtrend for 20 months. Frequently it found support levels, but these were all sequentially broken as the downtrend progressed. You can clearly see "big money" (smart money?) exiting as shown by the "steps" in the OBV plot (magenta circles).
The 4 indicators used here have given excellent signals in the past, even though the Sell signals of late 2006 were spread out over a month or more.
Bricks, would I have any chance at all of persuading you that buying or holding downtrending stocks is not a good idea?
http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/SCY94.gif
The turnover is very low and most the time would not support the chart,, BRICKS buys at very low prices but constant have a good low priced holding which pays dividends what more can you ask, Along with coming and going to NZ there is not much worth buying on the NZX at cheap prices that has not fallen over may remember you saying the same about
Mr Chips of which BRICKS made a very LARGE KILLING..
BRICKS can now buy at the lowest prices how & when he likes so one day day the
tide will turn and that's when rewards will be paid, this stock should be for new NZ investors
they can accumulate a bigger holding cheaper, But with everybody holding off and being smart they will miss the boat just like KFC & Co.. this stock would be a WARREN BUFFET BUY..
It would?
Care to explain to us how you view the long term durable competitive advantage that SCY has, or analyse the "economic moat" that protects it from competition?
Granted, its a cheap stock, granted, I have *some* time for the company but a Warren Buffett buy? Hahaha.
So, in other words, you have nothing?
Bricks,
You made a statement about Smiths City being a Warren Buffet type buy. SD simply asked you to back up this statement with your reasoning, to which you came back with your usual gibberish.
I'm not saying you are right or wrong (well I have my opinion), but I as well would be interested in your reasoning also.
SSB
To quote SD:
So, in other words, you have nothing?
Bricks, do you actually know anything about this company other than their name?
I don't have any insider info or anything other than an opinion. You're the one close to this share *cough*
Given they operate on razor thin margins but have - to date - been somewhat sheltered by consumer senitment due to their South Island focus, I wonder about the current year seeing as the farming sector seems to have peaked.
Also, the fall in the NZ dollar can't be helping them as an importer.
With a large part of their business being higher value discretionary, they're not the best place to be, somewhat offset by stable management, the tax benefits obtained a couple years ago and not too much of the "rah, rah" in their culture.
My guesstimate is to expect earnings to be down 20-25% this current financial year and have priced that into my valuation range. What earnings increase/decrease is priced into YOUR valuation?
Long term, they'll struggle to compete with the Harvey Norman's of the world on buying power, nor with the single store retailer on service fanaticism. They have a credible business, but no "economic moat". I would not pay for a "Buffett style" long term durable competitive advantage as I do not believe they have one.
In summary, I see a profit making, dividend paying company in a difficult sector that has done well to recover from oblivion, will survive these conditions and on guesstimate is currently slightly under valued to fairly valued.
Not a dog. Not a Buffett buy.
Now, your turn?
NOT a DOG, South Island expansion is put on hold, North Island is the new position mainly in the mid towns small at the moment but will grow, as for Harvey Normans NO threat as they come to Smiths to have there stock repaired and his store biz is just one great agent
stop for other firms he just rakes a FEE.. All firms are hurting but SCY price is RIGHT and you SD should be enlarging you holing at these cheep prices. But WB would love to visit Smiths if he lived in your country..
I have a few Smiths City actually. I'm certainly not against the company.
As for Buffett, read the book he just co-operated with, specifically the bits about buying third rate retailers at a fourth rate price.
Whilst there are plenty of ways to turn a dollar doing things Buffett wouldn't do, to even suggest he'd give Smiths City a second glance shows ignorance of Buffett, or Smiths City, or both.
NEVER suggested that he would buy,, But he did say he never BUYS Mice companies
any more that he needs elephant companies now you cant apply every situation to his style
you should read Buffett letters they are up to date and make good reading for POOR people
like yourself..
UP, because when your at the bottom its the only DIRECTION..
Bricks, will you be in Wgtn on election day? Would be great to see you at the Wgtn ST meeting. :)
Bricks inspected a Smiths City store in Gisborne after checking the yellow pages for Gas Appliance retailers and wanted to buy a simple accessory for a gas stoVe (ie a kettle) they said they never stocked accessories for gas stoves. What a store would not bother thinking about them again.
Bricks; Just what I would expect from a Brick (as A Brick is solid object & it is definately not solid brain) as I had a kettle in front of me that needed replacing for a elderly relative. I certainly know what one would look like. Yellow Pages was the obivous place to look for stockists of gas Appliances. But that would definately be out of range of a Bricks thinking. As stocking accesories for the goods they sell is out of range of the skills SCY's management.
A true CAT story all I can say is your a REAL DILL to even write the story it in the first and then blame SMITH CITY for your supity and in the long run the kettle it was not for you..
Ha, Ha..
So CAT have a nice Xmas visit SMITH`s when in need hope you have better luck next time and BUY the Share it will make you feel BETTER..
Brick of the Dogs, you've outdone yourself today!! You should be concentrating on your shares.....
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/SCY/...ements/4756420
ANNOUNCEMENT 10.11.08
“The Board of Directors of Smiths City Group Limited advises that trading conditions have been more difficult in the period from mid-September. Excluding the building supplies business which the company sold during the first half of the last financial year, sales for the first half of the 2009 financial year (1 May 2008 to 31 October 2008) are down 8.4% with same store retail sales down 7.7%.
As a result of the lower sales and a lower contribution from the property company, which has not sold a property this six months, profit for the first half of this financial year is expected to be substantially down on the same period last year. As in previous years the actual half year result will be published in December and a further update will be given at that time.”
Bricks the stupid thing was to think after owning SCY shares in 1987 that because they have survived they had good management. But obviously they have not. Have heard RUMOURS that the only reason they are still in Gisborne is it cheaper to lose money than close as nobody else wants the building. Please Note This is ONLY RUMOUR.
BRICKS Customers do not ring the management they just do not comeback and if enough of them do the company goes bust. But that would be to much for a Brick to understand.
bricks you come accross real nasty eah...
taken light hearted though...
The best come back ive heard all year
goes like this...
:cool:Quote:
possum the cat-Just what I would expect from a Brick (as A Brick is solid object & it is definately not solid brain)
.^sc
BRICKS don't care what you think your a one eye DILL with NO real information about any company and spook at any note you can lay your grubby hands on thinking that your telling the world which is available to every one,. NZ has NO market to talk about let a lone make any money and you stupid type of people do not CONTRBUTE anything for your punishment go and shop at SCY and tell-em you HATE them don't tell BRICKS..
BUGGER OFF..
Wow Bricks, that is almost comprehensible!! You make more sense when you are angry!!
To be honest, the only reason I post on this thread is because of your incomprehensible ramblings, childish attitude to those who disagree with you, butchering of the English language and your illogical logic.
As for adding nothing, believe it is more than a little of the pot calling the kettle black there Sir!! I got bored but after reading your last 10 posts, what a waste of cyberspace!!
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you
Your friend,
Bob.
I promise not to post if you don't...... ;)
[QUOTE=Sideshow Bob;233634]I promise not to post if you don't......
BOB`s is NO cobber and may be a DOBBER.. BRICKS promise`s NOTHING..
Oh the poetry.....Quote:
BOB`s is NO cobber and may be a DOBBER..
For the last few months there has been a larger than normal buyer in the market for SCY
a 100,000 parcel has been common not all at once but constant anyone know something
small details lead to big RESULTS..
I wonder if he knew that SCY was going to report a 71% drop in profit?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10580751
IT appears macduffy did not know as well but reads the paper like every one else..
Then we all know,, BUT the actually the chain of shops is still growing like they always do
new and larger store at Timaru along with 3 others its all in the report and not in the PAPER..
No one knows, but I think we all expect listed retailers to report pretty dismal results for a while.
Let's hope that a drop of 71.5% is the worst!
THEY are still paying a DIV as best they can But unlike a lot of companies including the big BANKS who charge the bum of small people have CUT.. and reduced div`s and income
RATES.. GOOD on SMITH`s CITY for trying as hard as they do while and employing over 500 people...
Just noticed the new store opening up in Porirua. Good location right next to Harvey Normans with good parking available and central to the mega-centre.
I don't think I have seen inside a Smith's City store since the 1980's, so will be interesting to have a look.
WELL the div is up 1 cent + .15 input its the first of a TAX return, along with store numbers up but sales down cant win them all its a cheep stock and one day someone
will notice IT..
margins thin, retail tuff,opposition ruthless.
however;solid growth.
stores well maintained,
point sales upgraded.
store locations upgraded.
solid growth.
further expansion.
excellent directors with most skin on the line.
rick hellings exceptional managing director.
dividend paying company.
all this without coming to shareholders for cash as so many fancy companies have. a good steady earner.
bricks; enjoy your dividends and remember buffett brought mrs b's furniture store .
This news is always the Best with SCY trading at half its NTA but been pushing on with store openings now for some time in the North island and the latest @ Porirua with the full
shopping block and L V Martin located together it cant go wrong..
Today rose 17.65% to 40 cents but this is cheep and wont last long, BRICKS is now well position for another good COLLECT..
So you have been buying up SCY this morning, eh BRICKS?! ;)
...very apt Bricks. I went into SCY Porirua for a look yesterday. Actually checked the price of a small appliance I wanted. Too expensive at SCY - but made me realise that I'd never noticed LV Martin were there! Went inside and found the appliance (same brand/model) for about 40% of the SCY price. Oops. Guys in LV's said the arrival of SCY had been great for business...
lizard.
sorry you made brick's day.
i am still laughing.
l v martin set up made it easy for smiths to set up in wellington area,watch out for more stores,same back office, warehouse,delivery vehicle and back up service.
leemings do it with bond and bond.
j b hi fi with stewart and hill.
harvey norman with norman ross.
best to have OPPOSITION next door as customers like to do what you did.
if no opposition customer will go elsewhere.