This pair could be thinking about a foray north
to test Major Gann who is dug in at 203.12
arco
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This pair could be thinking about a foray north
to test Major Gann who is dug in at 203.12
arco
Watch out Major........
.........we are on our way.
+55 and moving stop to b/e
its a very volatile pair!
Good Morning Peat
Volatilaty is really profitable if you know how to use it.
I got out last night with 98 pips as the action approached
the resistance from 3rd Sept.
The current look could be forming a Cup and Handle
so I will probably go back in again once I can see
more confirmation.
arco
yeh i saw your post a bit late to take advantage of it and so got in too late only to watch it retrace on me.... so once again I manage to stuff up something. [:o)]
Currently looking to me like some consolidation before more climb tho.... so will hang in there rather than bite the bullet...
Hi Peat
Yes, I think you will be OK with that trade.
I have an buy order waiting at 202.25
and may gradually move that entry down
as time goes on.
arco
hmm not looking that fantastic
any point at which you think the target of 203 becomes unlikely
my news feed says this :
.
[GBP/JPY] rebounds sharply after the downside once again proved good support ahead of the 201.00 pivot. Those who sold on large fixing offer orders (allegedly linked to Gilt sales) are now running for cover, causing a choppy move higher. Refreshed selling is expected to emerge into 201.70/80, while stops are mooted above 202.00.
Peat
I'm having connectivety problems at the moment so
cant get any live charts. Will give my thoughts
later when the issue resolves.
any quotes u need just ask arco
or use these
http://www.global-view.com/fxtrek_charts.html
[:0][:0][:0][:0]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by peat
its a very volatile pair!
This pair seem to move in sync with Eur/JPY and USD/JPY, well today anyway. Been watching them all on 5min charts.
Just thought it may shed some light on things
cheers
Slam
arcoQuote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
Peat
I'm having connectivety problems at the moment so
cant get any live charts. Will give my thoughts
later when the issue resolves.
Are you a Telstra connection?
GDC who host my company’s network have informed me that Telstra are having problems accessing certain international sites and some local ones as well.
So if your Telstra, it’s not just you arco.
Just thought it might stop you worrying about it;)
cheers
slam
Thanks guys for your offers of help, etc.
It seemed to be an ISP problem.
I am with Actrix but also have Clear as a back up.
Both seemed to be having problems.
Anyway its very frustrating as that little incident
has lost/cost me a nice 100 pip run up on GBP.JBY [V]
Get a nice red wine arco you'll feel better then
but you already made 100 pips on this arco - are you telling me you want to make it twice lol
well i am please to see it back up here, a bit of relief on my part. Still going for 203?
Hi Peat
Yep, 98 last night, and would now be 198 [V]
There is a Major Gann as mentioned at 203.12,
but GPB.JPY is a weird mover, so take a profit when
you are happy.
Anyway, I'm back on the horse at 202.25 and hoping
its a fast steed northbound for Gann land.
+ 6 :D Marvellous - I can buy a beer
202.69 was the high on the EOD reached around 4 AM,
so thats just under the Major Gann I mentioned @ 203.12
u da man Arco
but I couldnt stomach the pain and closed out early last nite at break even , that volatility kinda scared me.
but once again respekt for your calls.
Thanks Peat
We have about reached the Gann goal I mentioned
with the recent high 203.11
It could go further but I am happy with
another 70 pips to add to the previous 98
arco
Yep, thanks for the heads up on this one arco
got 2 bits at the cherry myself[8D]
cheers
slam
Morning Slam
Pleased to hear that.
The Major Gann has certainly caused
some hesitation, so we will have to
wait and see what the next few days bring.
Its always good to have a target in mind,
and always good to take a profit.
arco
Heading north again
Circa 70pips so far this morn.
May have another go at 203.40
Most against the JPY are doing well so far today
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Considering the Gann resistance area above and
a bearish engulfing on the daily I will be holding
off this one for now.
arco
Morning arco
The contrarian in me says it's got 1 more push, but running a tight trailing just in case;)
See how we go, already in the black if I get stopped so will let it run
Cheers
Slam
Slam
There is a minor Gann at 201.56, so it would be worth
keeping your eye on that area for a possible hiccup.
Wishing you good luck
arco
cheers arco;)
slam
Took profit:)
Your Gann proving a problem arco
Cheers
Well done Slam.
Now, theres a supportive Gann circa 200, so I'm keeping my eye
open for the possibility of a reversal signal somewhere around
that area.
Lows earlier today reached 200.26 and 200.45 so these may
have been forays to test the Gann support.
arco
Exact bounce off 200 - thank you Mr Gann ;)
......so back in long at 200.10
+75 currently
arco
Ticking along nicely .......
now +180 and moving stop up to protect profit.
The big question - can we overpower Major Gann
at 20312.
arco
Only 180 pips mate[:0];),nice run on hourly.
Evening Miner
Yes, this one is a right little mover if you can
learn to ride the Gann waves. It needs a slightly
different approach to some of the majors.
arco
Yep mate once sort a few more things out gann-a have to sort mister gann out a bit,like tidy moves like this,15min chart from say 19;45 to 21;30(time wise) easy enough,compared to say eur/usd which has been messy,find the tidy one and play that.
As usual great calls,keep them coming[8D].
Cheers
Miner
Arco, seeing them everywhere now.... need to have a holiday
are these within the acceptable parameters of bullish white cabbages?
Might be premature on the latest one as the day is not yet over...
Marks out of 10 please :D:D
http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/7606/gbpjpy9jj.jpg
Very nice progress so far, 200+ pips overnight. May do a 2 step as shown on chart before reaching target D, circa 197.60, for a buy. If it does the jig, then more confidence can be given to buying at D.
http://img392.imageshack.us/my.php?image=gbpjpy14hg.jpg
Will have to await my return to see if this demo has run to plan
mush mush, watch out Slam, the Xerof's are coming.....
http://www.thisisthelife.com/photos/...gh-lapland.jpg
Re Xerofs figure - 196.88 is a Gann level to watch
for possible support.
In the meantime I put on a cheeky long last night
before I went to bed. Amazing it actually got hit
around 12.15 am at 199.10.
...........I have topped that up this morning.
Currently +50 Max
The Oscillator is still below the zero line and
action below the Gann support/resistance level @
200, so this may only be a short term trade.
arco
Still moving along steadily on this roller coaster ride.
If it can hold the break of Ganns Major at 200.00 it could move north is an orderly fashion. Polarity was tested at 10.30 am with a move down to 200.02 and its trying to head north. Need to see a break now of recent high at 200.48
Currently +119 and +74
arco
Short term, this may be nearing a top, but same formation on the daily still appears to have a lot further northward progress
http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/5541/gbpjpy0si.png
http://img425.imageshack.us/img425/816/gbpjpy11wm.png
So maybe we see a shallow pullback to the trendline before a big push higher
Xerof
Nice entry into the box, and a strike out as well. Minor high recorded on the daily now, so perhaps after a bit of dithering around with the old resistance line acting as support(right here)we might just see this one perform as it should
Nothing on it - it's nicknamed the ninja beast due to its extreme volatility - but good practice for gaining confidence with these formations and their behaviour
http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/4910/gbpjpy8po.png
Xerof
Target 206.388, todays high bid 206.39 - sorry about that [8D][8D]
Xerof (OOL)
Its on my netting list, but biding my time for the right moment.
Could be some Gann resistance @ 206.25 and tomorrow is a cycle day, so the time could soon be ripe.
arco
Had a wee dabble with the ninja beast last night, selling at 207.90, but took it back in this morning at 207.50. Man, it really is a beast - its been to that area 3 times overnight, with 2 visitations to 207.30 in between - I think I'll stay out of it, at least until there's confirmation of a major trend change....[8D][8D]
Xerof
Watching the spinning top/doji, and will see what todays bar does for a clue though.... could provide a confirmation
Hi Xerof
I have been watching this one for some time awaiting a confluence of indicators.
My Butterfly target has not quite completed but there are a few other indicators that look good so I have decided to take a couple of short positions.
Monitoring closely....currently +130 and +82
GO Ninja Beast GO
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110505ww_104.gif
The Ninja Beast got the week off to a nice start ............currently +228 and +180
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110805ww_773.gif
thsi one showed us the way today with a head and shoulders formation identifying the 1 min 25 pip drop on the hour precisely.
I did post about it on the other forum at 5:59 GMT
Only played it in demo but still.... :D
Perhaps a little further north in the short term while1/(a-b-c)2
completes.........
..........then if the Ninja Beast starts to unwind from that point
there could be some serious southern mileage available.
Red boxes show some potential target points.
GTA - arco
Action progressed as expected on the previous chart
with a highest close of 239.87.........and it was all downhill from there on.
.....giving circa 800 pips so far from the abc reversal box area shown.
There may be 1500 pips more to go if the plan hatches out as per chart.
Trailing stop to maximise on the position.
May the force be with us - arco
overnight low of 224.79...............for a max of 1425 pips so far.
................as I said on the 26/10
"if the Ninja Beast starts to unwind from that point
there could be some serious southern mileage available."
rgds - arco
Nice call Arco,
Also a head and shoulders on the weekly and monthly charts which also suggest that this could move considerably lower
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...u32/gbyjpy.gif
We have a close below the neckline on the weekly chart... It has a long way to go if everything works out
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z...jhu32/gbpj.gif
hi craig
ive been watching this one
imo there is possibilty down move may stall , possible trade opportunity as pretty close to major support and if that fails then your patterns looking good
harmonic pattern in prz
some long term trend line support
spinning tops
divergence on q stick
Hi All
IMO there is potential of a little support off the previous double bottom, so we need to watch that (and look for a possible break below).
Just looking at the bigger picture it could be that the 'beast' may still be in the midst of a large ABC correction which could end a lot lower (as per diagram).
DB - have a look at the Ewaves and see what you think. I am picking A-B might be a 5 wave triangle. If so, it would mean more southerly progress to follow.
rgds - arco
prefered count
possible (c) wave of a B
looked like an ending diagonal of a 5th wave to possibly complete (b)
looking for a higher low than 221.35 to confirm
very complex picture in corrective mode but seems to fit
We're testing the neckline here at 227, looks to me like a good spot to sell a bit
could this be the final farewell of the carry trade
up 800 pips on the week,
still running third wave of a c of a larger b
probably more to come
26/10/07The eagle has landed - (in the lower box). Todays close 213.12
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachm...1&d=1193366014
afternoon guys
gbpjpy buy
divergence on q stick
currently entering a c wave which looks good for 900 + pips maybe even to gartley target
hammer and spinning tops
currently entering on wave 2 retracement which may go down to 208 - 208.50
risk limit bottom of hammer 206
There was a subliminal message in that photo :cool:
Hope a few managed to get in on the fall.......
i'm ready to take on the ninja
possible short on the cards
price hitting resistance from down trend line and also at 38.2 retracement of decline
bear channel flag
bearish count is a completing 4th wave befores big 5 th wave move down
divergence on indicators and some candlestick confirmation
hI DB
heres my 2 cents worth
Hi All
Certainly the Ninja Beast should fall 500-700 pips, Not sure if its
quite ready to turn yet, so it depends on your appetite for risk
in the absence of a confirmed reversal pattern.............
Scaling in could be one option, but this will require large stops and
nerves of steel :)
arco
if i was making a market i would try one final move higher taking stops above trendline
i have entry allowing for a terminal thrust higher to 217 but feel top maybe already in
hey arco, would you mind sharing some thoughts on what you would deem 'confirmed reversal patterns' on this example that would give you the green light to short
thanks paul
heres an updated chart
i guess the most obvious would be the break of the lower trendline and a confirmation of polarity change .....but ill just shut up and see what the boss says
Hi DB
One reasonably conservative entry would be on a TL break and confirmed polarity test, then buy on break of last pivot low.
There are many other slightly more aggressive entries such as watching for old support to become potential resistance (check current 4 hour chart). Again for safety one could wait for a lower high pivot to form on smaller time-frames and check for added confirmation divergences on lower pane indicators.
Or if you are feeling very aggressive - scale in slowly based on EW counts and/or Fib points.
rgds - arco
DB
This is what I was looking at last night on the 4 hr.
Potential resistance at purple lines and Gartley targets.
arco
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Entered this one short @ 213.35 based on my thoughts as mentioned.
I put an initial target of +60 and the action did reach +40ish as one stage, but I was having a walk on the beach, otherwise I might have grabbed the profit.
Anyway, currently +10.........might be a bit of nail chewing and foot tapping involved :D
arco
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
entered short as well arco , nice trendline on hourlies and its right on 61.8 of retracement
ive got a tight stop just above that high at 214
there was an evening star of sorts as well to back up my entry
under water for 10 as we speak
Hi DB
Yes a number of indications appearing together, so lets
see if and how far the action can head south.......
My stop also close by @ 214.05
arco
I've decided to take a small loss on this one until
the plot becomes more clear...tomorrows another day
arco
Annoying having to be asleep when all the action happens,
but fortunately I took out a big position on Eur.Jpy before
retiring as it looked more in reversal mode.
Nice wake up pips +124
funny what you said about this one arco about the same time you posted i had my finger
on the mouse ready to close as it wasnt looking to flash but
my internet connection went down and i took it as a sign .........
sometimes it aint too scientific
just got stopped for 150+
Nice one DB
I managed to squeeze 200 from the Eur.Jpy, so after taking
the small loss from Gby.Jpy it was still a good result.
arco
Refer to post #63
The beast has broken out overnight resulting in +225 pips
Champagne breakfast :)
arco
Closed this overnight trade @ +320 pips...................most charts show reversals are imminent IMO.
I will be looking to get back in on the retrace when the signals look right.
rgds - arco
traded the uk data
just nailed 180 pips in about 5 mins wow
compensation for all the nightmare trades
So we've had 5 purple waves down and 3 yellows up and since then (late July) we've hit a new low with a very powerful motive wave downwards. No significant retracement yet so I'm still counting it as a 1. What do you think?
Now usually 2 is a significant retracement so that would take it at least to 207 possibly 212. But then we'd be in a new 3 wave downwards and supposedley that would go a long long way down! Certainly right now its recovering from being very oversold so it needs to do that at least.
...Continuing with my EW weekend
Hi Peat
Heres an EW commentary from asiafx
"Preferably, I believed a truncated wave 5 (white or magenta) is already established and looking forward for a bullish reversal trend to perform a major corrective a,b and c. A valid triple bottom pattern and a further breakout to the upper green trend-line and critical line 1 would bolster this scenario. Otherwise a breakout to the bearish continuation line 7 would put this scenario in major doubt (yellow)."
See the Chit Chat thread for the chart (link below), but pop on yer sunnies first
http://www.asiafxtraders.com/images/...10.30am_1h.gif
rgds - arco
always listen to arco.
I didnt follow his advice and I am now blind
some decent action last few days, maybe a trend change....been on hols this week would have gone long on the shakeout bar, with the strength in the background, and a support area.....(dailys) what a week to holiday....:)
Maybe nearing a bottom this pair. The weekly price action just bounced off the June 1995 low. Nothing but a big black abyss and a setting sun on the British empire beneath...
.
The long term Butterfly PTZ which started forming 'X' circa 1998 is close, and there may be
some support start coming in around 137.50 due to various other technical factors,
Plus the current action could also be starting to print a bullish Butterfly pattern on the
lower time-frames.
Wow long term!!
I can certainly see a beautiful bearish gartley as shown but I cant quite see how you get a butterfly starting from my B point...
Yep, thats a 'Speedy Butterfly' Peat.
B-C is very shallow 38.2 retrace. (16 June 2003)
The main consideration was the X-A 112.8 fib point @ D
DB
If you are around, let me know if this is a possible count on GBP/JPY
Could be taking a tumble soon.
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/007f38debc.gif
If the appetite for risk is back then the action could even head much higher
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/25b80d6ad9.gif
.j.
How about a climb to the top of the next pyramid?
http://i25.tinypic.com/2rxieko.gif
a couple of big bearish butterflies..
activation point is the dotted line so the second one triggered and played out and if price closes below the lower dotted line that one will have activated too.
Hi Peat
Is there a separate ruling on entry after one failed attempt?
Would that earlier BF have originally triggered on the low of the next BF 'A' pivot?
not that I know of
it didnt quite trigger on the first attempt imo.
this is the tricky bit really, but i think on a daily graph you need the close below the dotted line to be absolutely sure, which can mean you'll miss a bit of course.
But perhaps a clear impulsive movement through the line may be enough to convince. hey, you're the expert!! :p
Asleep at the wheel........Spotted this one a bit late, but you can quite clearly see the bearish Gartley rejection at the Kumo
http://i36.tinypic.com/2py850w.gif
so that activation of the second bearish butterfly that I talked about in post #90 consisting of a break of 148 occurred the day I left - sep 24. theoretical target of 138.56 is still 500 pips away from current price of 143.83 .
But, need to find a new entry setup. break of flagish trendline on the hourly?
Hi Peat
Trust you had a good time.
Yes, PA looking tired now, Kumo thickening, Chikou approaching plot and KS (blue) both as potential resistance.
The flag break might be the go, or scale in after a candle pattern. Grey box zone may be the max
http://i36.tinypic.com/24lj5lw.gif
Wouldn't take much for the Chikou line to break through the PA,
and the ozone layer in that cloud looks a bit thin.
Action could currently be forming a 3 Falling pattern.
Just 'mind the gap' (turquoise) It held as support before
http://i38.tinypic.com/112dhzp.gif
arco, could you take me under your wing and also tip me off when one of your set ups trigger? :D hehe
i'm in
has now broken the extension (dotted line) of the original trendline.