This Gartley pattern could provide an interesting short
for the medium term.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/022505.gif
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This Gartley pattern could provide an interesting short
for the medium term.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/022505.gif
Hi Arco. I'd be interested to see your chart but it appears to be broken.
Hello Halebop
Not sure why its not showing for you ...its seems
to be OK for me.
Does anyone else have the same problem ??
Please try this link for the chart
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...0Charts&id=916
edit...new link
A
Neither linking for me.
Hi again Arco,
Your server is perhaps password protected?
Quote:
quote:403 Error
Forbidden
You don't have permission to access /mycharts/charts/arco/022505.gif on this server.
OK Guys, can someone try this please and
let me know.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/disp...0Charts&id=916
Worked fine Arco,thanks for the chart.
Cheers
Miner
First entry +176 at close
Second entry +50 at close
Watch for possible minor resistance
area around 10742
Trailing stop.
Check out the daily chart for this pair.
Have we seen a 5 wave move down in this cross, to circa 1.0550, coinciding with the same support level seen mid-December? Looks like a turn-around trade here for perhaps a 3 wave correction back up.
I have had a 'lazy' offer in the NZD/AUD at .9485, but hasn't made it there, and looks like it won't.
Any fine tuning comments or contrarian views?
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Where are you getting a chart for the pair?
none of my systems have a chart available for aud/nzd
Cheers Slam
I use this for oddball crosses
http://www.fxstreet.com/
go to live charts panel, File, change symbol, more, and type in any combo you want.
Xerof
Xerof
I would personally be watching to see if it
can break back through circa 1.0620.
Old S=R? perhaps.
arco
Cheers Xerof
Handy place. see what you mean about the daily on the pair, even to my untrained eye, looks like a nice bounce of long term resistance.
Cheers
Slam
Yes I see what you mean, Arco, supported around 1.0630/40 area on 2 recent occasions. (I'll have to draw more lines:):))
Xerof
Baah, this one has snuck under the radar, seems to have now broken that 1.0630 area with some conviction.
Can't back every horse in the race I guess.
Xerof
Currently the rebalancing of the NZD:AUD exchange rate is one of the few bets that will most probably pay-off with a 10% + gain yet their seems to be so little media discussion or talk even on this forum. Even since the NZD climbed to its height I have been reweighting my shares and cash into Aussie.
Dough Boy
In your opinion where do you see this going to?
Let me know your thoughts and I will calculate
some technical targets.
arco
Well Doughboy's presence was brief and non-responsive, but for his benefit here's a blend of EW and yes, you guessed it, a cabbage white.
He's probably already sold this rally early, but for us FX Prima <s>Ma</s>donna's (not to be confused with the fallen Madonna with the big boobies) there might just be another final leg up before we quietly, and without fanfare, sell the hell out of this cross (the invisible hand)
http://img447.imageshack.us/img447/3168/nzdaud7de.png
Xerof (a very modest C cup FYG)
Interesting Xerof
My chart is up-sidedown (AUD-NZD) and currently working a EOD Gartley. I am on the claptop at the moment, but will try to post a chart tomorrow.
So do you think we should be converting all our spare NZD cash into Aussie notes?
arco
Hi fellas, new to this trading game and must confess I take a dim view of charting. However the pictures are nice.
Have shorted the NZ/AUD at the mo and am waiting to short NZ/USD if it gets close to .70.
Does anyone out there use any forex tipping services and if so can they recommend any or is it the old adage that the good ones are kept secret with a lot of rubbish in the market place?
Arco,
yes can see the gartley on the daily, and probably the NZD/AUD daily has more potential to go higher (AUD/NZD lower) than my 120 min chart indicates, however was only showing initial 1.272% target
conversion of all cash to AUD? - I was over-dramatising but does seem to be nearing the top end of a well worn range. Nothing funnymental to suggest it won't continue to trade the wider 85/95 range for less than eternity[xx(][xx(]
Blackcap - greetings
you'll find almost all tipsheets are technically based - sorry about that mate, but if you're serious about successfully margin trading FX, then best to do your research on demo account for at least 12 months before fronting up with your capital - its not the easiest craft to ply
You'll find plenty of referrals on the Forex threads right here, and genuine, mostly profitable trading strategies - and best of all - no ramping
Xerof
Thanks for the suggestions Xerof. I have been playing the demo for a while before going for real but find that you dont have the same discipline when doing it on demo and this tends to distort and skew your returns.
Have been following the discussions on here too and find it very interesting. Keep up the good work. Im sure its appreciated by a lot more people than just me.
I also know what your saying about technicals and currency. It almost seems the two go hand in hand.
Here we are then......at last
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101305_906.gif
arco
Yep, just about in the batters box.
I'm being patient though Arco, looking for the dipping ball into the back of the red zone, possibly next week if all goes to plan.
Hate to bring in fundamentals, but should see a flurry of nervous selling of AUD/NZD prior to RBNZ
Xerof
Xerof
There was a 85 pip dive into and back out of the red box with the EOD forming a Doji on Rooters charts.
How do you see this pair now fundamentally?
arco
You beat me to it - this was my next topic to update.
Yeah, another one that got away I think - wave 5 looks completed, doji candle as you mention, and clearly made it into the zone.
May get another spike before next week, but seems this shorter term opportunity may have been missed.
But again, I'm encouraged by the potentially high strike rates these patterns produce - I think I'll become a collector
http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/1276/nzdaud7cw.png
Xerof
Second lick of the icecream coming up for those interested in selling this cross. Currently 9280 and might be able to be a little greedier this time
Xerof
So at what point would you sell Xerof? Im already short, but you reackon its time to short it now?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Second lick of the icecream coming up for those interested in selling this cross. Currently 9280 and might be able to be a little greedier this time
Xerof
I cant help feel its going to trade round the 0.88 range again soon.
The action is now playing in the red box (see my previous chart) which is one of the possible reversal area, however no turn around signal is confirmed at this moment and the oscilllator is still following the plot.
No poistion taken as yet.
arco
Blackcap - .9350 (1.0695 inverted) should prove fairly resilient, being 1.618% retracement level, but might just be a bit too much to ask for.
Arco, where's Major Gann lurking on this one?
Thanks for your explanation Xerof. Im a novice to the game, but find it interesting. Will have a closer look. Thank you and arco for your charts and comments too.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
Blackcap - .9350 (1.0695 inverted) should prove fairly resilient, being 1.618% retracement level, but might just be a bit too much to ask for.
Arco, where's Major Gann lurking on this one?
Regards
Morning Xerof
Major Gann at 7422.
I will try to post an updated chart once I get the EOD download from Rooters.
arco
Arco, that'll be the other battalion - for AUD.USD?
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Apologies, a typo, should read.....1.0742
(AUD/NZD - inverse of your chart)
arco
Updating chart
Still ticking away nicely. The red box is a possible area for turnaround so keep a watch on that for any reversal signals. As mentioned some Gann support exists around 1.0742 which may also assist. However, the oscillator is not in divergence presently.
arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/101805_126.gif
The 1.0700/50 area is the Gartley turnaround zone, but a break below 1.0700'ish would give me butterflies Arco. I presume those lower boxes are cabbage white traps?
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes they are the next southbound target zones, so IMO always best to wait for a clear reversal signal before getting set for the northerly move coming eventually.
arco
Nice probe into the zone last night, not quite to where I was lurking with an offer, but time is on our side I feel...
Xerof
Ooh, maybe not, just noticed that we might get a doji on the daily close, so todays activity might tell us something
Xerof
Yes the Doji on Rooters EOD has a close of .0744 - not a million miles from my Gann support calc at .0742 ;)
Looks interesting, but patience is required.
arco
Ticking down nicley over last few hours
Slam
Has met my target, no real sign of a top, but sold NZD at 9350
On my chart posted above, its met 1.272% extension of smaller butterfly, and 78.6% of larger Gartley.
Surely that must count for something [:0][:0]
Xerof
1.069518716577540106951871657754 just approximately
http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/4...11020055zy.jpg
well it sure seems like a bullish gartley to me zerof
copy your image link from the second band of options below the thumbnails peat, then take out the extra bits, just leaving the image code. The thumbnails don't seem to work....
Haven't got a calculator that goes to that many decimals, so will take your word for it mate
yes definitely a bullish G, but could develop a pair of wings and go lower (or higher, if you remain loyal to the NZD and quote it as lead currency:D:D)
Xerof
hope thats not too small for your old eyes ;)
its abit dark init - best you print them during the day [8D][8D]- wotisit - some african poisonous snake?:)
scale it down to 60% before you save it to your temp files
yeh i'll shrink them in future sorry.....
normally use candles too.... but just wanted to make the shape clearer
when does the bullish gartley get broken ?
See the chart for details, but the larger Gartley (Blue) has probably already gone a little further than "ideal" (AB=CD).
The smaller bullish butterfly (Red) though, is still probing the reversal zone - this is what I am relying on for a turnaround trade.
But if the larger Gartley were to evolve into a full scale butterfly, there is quite some way to go lower, targeting 1.0400 to 1.0200
Under 10600 and it'll be all over Rover, I would think
Not entirely sure if my larger gartley is valid, and of course it is dangerous to 'front-run' an anticipated completion anyway. Even the smaller butterfly has not displayed any turnaround ....
Arco has a third formation (shown on his last graph), where the formation completed and is still running down. He has some targets shown on that graph.
And he is right to suggest waiting for completion and definite signs of a turnaround before entering.
http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/5197/audnzd3us.png
Xerof
Good Morning Xerof
With respect, the red Butterfly cannot be classed as valid because the C leg is higher than the A leg.
I will post an updated chart ASAP.
arco - back in the Hot Seat
quite right, I missed putting the first AB leg in from the A point of the blue formation, meaning it completed a Gartley and is still going down the yellow brick road.
[|)][|)]Xerof[|)][|)]
Nup - thats no gartley at all - AB does not equal CD
Ah well back to the drawing board
Hi Xerof
Amazingly those bastar*d sharpes can sometimes work.
Heres the updated chart.
The action has now reached the lower red/blue target boxes (as shown in the previous charts). Oscillator is showing some signs of flattening out and I have calculated some minor Gann support in the 1.0620 region.
Reversal may be just around the corner.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/102505_712.gif
arco
Oh yes, thats the same one I was attempting to portray - I'll leave it to the expert - anyway I prefer it the other way --- so to speak:D:D
Xerof
Nice Long Green Yesterday
Took a long at 0695
Cheers
Slam
One promising sign.....minor low posted on the daily, at last....also long at 1.069518716577540106951871657754 just approximately (cheers, Peat;))
http://img394.imageshack.us/img394/6616/audnzd6so.png
Xerof
cut at 9309 (10742), at 8.56am.... wait for OCR dust to settle now before going back in
Well, I think the dust has settled, and it's more of the same IMV. It only managed the weakest of bounces (retracement) to 10760 (9290)or so, before turning turtle again.
This cross needs to hold around current levels, otherwise we may see a continuation lower for a L/T retest of the 1.0500/1.0600, (9450/9430) which has been the multi-year reversal zone as far back as I can recall. Below that lies the infamous but elusive parity (which is 1.00 whichever way you quote it[^][^]
I'll let you know venue for the parity party....if I'm still on this mortal coil at the time....
Xerof
Morning All
The short based on the Butterfly set up gave southbound riders circa 410 pips.
Now, based on the second Hammer entry into the lower target boxes I have gone long between .0665 - .0669
+60, +53, +46
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/110305b_751.gif
arco
I also went long at 10661[:p][:p] but have taken it off the table already at 10712
Will be back in though
This Gann DGL stuff is interesting Arco, have been distracted a little whilst doing all the reading and coming to grips with what the lines all mean.
This is not a recommendation to do anything, but I have multiple Gann [u]SUPPORT</u> for NZD at 6900, and AUD at 7400. Perhaps you might like to confirm if your methods come up with the same? Daily charts.
Also, had Gann support yesterday on GBP.USD at 17600 (so squared up another short I had taken - just as well....)
TIA
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Yes, the DGL's are quite good once you get the knack, and good value for money I would say, as you get free updates form Don on a regular basis.
Obviously there are many points where A,B,C can go and I use longer term dates as well. My figures seem to sit roughly in the same area as you mention.
One important point that you may have picked up is that 'A' date is always the highest(lowest) close, and B/C dates are always the highest (lowest) point of the bar.
I have had the course for some years and really need to read it again.[:I]
arco
PS. Closed all my AUD.NZD at lunchtime and have placed orders lower down.
Yes got that. The piece of software that a user wrote for use on Esignal does it automatically. It's a bit like 'Gann for Dummies'
Choosing appropriate V and inverted V formations seems to be where the art lies, then of course deciding which S/R line will be produce the magic, but as an extra tool I think I like it:):)
Unless we have started the 'cascading decline' we've all been waiting for, may see better levels to re-enter shorts on various pairs, but the NZD crosses certainly took a pummelling last night.
An interesting observation regarding Esignal - I have a chart for NZDGBP, which must only have one price feed - last night they might have got buried by the market, as there's been no price update since 3930!! - on second look, just updated now, but has left a gaping gap on my chart[V][V]
So, Esignal is not perfect... but who watches NZDGBP anyway[?]
I'll post the chart in the Gartley test thread as it is picture perfect Red Admiral, followed by a sym triangle breakout
Wish all trades were as easy as that....
Xerof
Long on this as well
Slow climb atm
Cheers
Slam
Hi All
Hope everyone had a great festive season.
Went long on this pair last week at 1.0708, 189pips so far.[8D]
If it can break 1.09 convincingly, looking for 1.11
Cheers
Slam
goin well slam!! i had a goodie myself going long on the Eur just before the NFP kicked it up 70 points.
from my platform news today...
[AUD/NZD] cross headed northbound in early AM session after last week's consolidation, demand by onshore and corporates drive it briefly 1.0900+ high but capped by profit takers placed above 1.0910, thus retreats down to the current 1.0870 zone. Meanwhile 1.0850 to 1.0835 likely to attract decent buying orders on the back of solid growth in Aust while participants expect RBNZ to end its monetary tightening cycle. A sustained 1.0930 break unveils 1.0970-1.1000 objective. On the charts, bullish trend remains intact for a minimum 1.1000 to 1.1040 target. Support now lies at 1.0835
Hi Pete
Yep was good. Was running a tight stop which got hit.
Kept 145 pips:)
Back in again today on the low,
see how we go this time.
Cheers
Slam
currently 72pips and holding
Cheers
Slam
Closed long for 98pips
Will look to reset on a dip. Hourly overbought
Cheers
Slam
Took Longs again at 62
Looking to push through resistance circa 0920 this time;)
Will flat on failure
See how we go
Cheers
Slam
Target met over night at 1.1090:)
Have re-entered on dip looking for break of 1.11
Cheers
Slam
kiwi getting a bit hammered
this cross is benefitting.
What are the general thoughts on where is the AUD heading against the NZD?
Hi MoeQuote:
quote:Originally posted by moe
What are the general thoughts on where is the AUD heading against the NZD?
IMO up up and away
Been long on this pair for ages (as you will see by my posts) and it just keeps going.:)
May correct sometime soon, but think it will then resume uptrend
Cheers
slam
Hi All
Out for the correction.
Will re enter on the bounce
Cheers
Slam
I'm looking forward to the Kiwi getting sold down to 0.75AUD, by the end of the year.
Bring on more bad economic news!!
Hoping the AUD drops further against the USD too. Great for aussie commodity stocks.
this upward trend now had to happen really given our appalling trade figures compared to theirs.... + 80 and holding.
I bought in this at 1.1883 last night and its been a struggle with the signals unclear. My fortitude almost wavered, but the announcement this morning hasnt done the cross any harm and its seems to be building a base at around the 1.1900 level. Resistance will arrive at 1.20 but buying on dips could work for a few more pips yet. It is quite volatile which does mean you get the chance to buy cheap if you have the stomach for it.
Hi Peat
I spotted a Sm Gartley on the daily, and a Harami candle pattern (after a Bearish Engulfing 12 days ago). So not sure where this one is going in the short term. I'm basically waiting to see if the recent high is taken out before making any decisions.
regards - arco
as suggested i accumulated at around 1.1900 and have reduced a bit now...leaving some on the table tho coz AUD looks strong
adding at these 1.990 levels
reducing at these 1.21 levels
closed out at 1.2220
Kiwi dollar is in freefall against other major currencies now. On course to hit new lows in a few months time. I suggest buying AUD/JPY and holding on.
So with the rises over the last few days when does one start buying A$.
This publication may help answer your question :)
Its issued weekly.
http://www.nbnz.co.nz/economics/publ...arketFocus.pdf
Regards,
Clearasmud
Hi All
This one looks like it may be one of those Gartley / Butterfly patterns to an untrained eye.:)
Any thoughts out there
Cheers
Slam
Edit: On the daily
Hi Slam
Not sure if you are looking at 'X' from 11/5/06, or from 6/7/06.
Although the larger is a wierd Butterfly pattern, the agreeing 'D' level from both gave a confirming point for a short and about 420 pips max presently.
I have been concentrating on the majors so sadly I didnt trade that one.
Regards - arco
Hi Arco
No I didn't trade it either ( The right way anyhow;))
Was just looking for the end of this run, which may be now for a Gartley, or could go on to be a Butterfly.
There I go thinking out load again:D
Cheers for the reply
Slam
Still heading lower and broken the lower support on the daily.
The reversal on this one should be nice;)
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
May be a ways to go yet....but lets see how it copes with 2 TL breaks first.
13 black candles in a row must be an omen [}:)]
arco in QLD
red on mine arco:D
looking continuously weak and breaking through new floors. I played the bounce for some pips but that was a bit of a dead cat. Seems like short side is more likely now, but woah its already fallen a long way.
further confirmation of weakness breaking through 117.40
I am thinking this means even more downside. perhaps a lot.
Think the current levels, NZd vs AUd can't be upheld for too much longer, tempted to liquidate my stocks and buy some aud
Can you guys help a beginner. Agree with Tracker that the NZ$ won't stay at these levels too much longer. What's the bet way of changing $20grand NZ to AUD - buying Aussie shares a little risky at the mo 9my opinion) my westpac bank wants its pound of flesh for setting up an AUD account (but maybe the way to go)
Any other ideas?? Cheers
Dasher
Not sure if any of these 3 ideas may help.
ASB Securites (share trading) NZ. They will open an Aussie dollar account which also pays interest.
ANZ in Aus have a V2 account that pays 5% on balances over $5k
I think you can open an account with Oanda in Aud dollars and I beleive they pay 4% on any amount. You could also trade the cross with this account, if you so wish.
regards - arco
Hi All
This has had quite a run (down).
Looking for support circa 1.1190, 61.8 Fib from 12/05 to 05/06
If this dosent hold, may be 100% retrace[:0]
Any other opinions out there?
Cheers
Slam
You been in hibernation for the winter slam[?][|)]:D,first post for a while[:0];).
Hi Miner
Yep, been a bit busy, still doing the odd trade, but more long term as I don't have to much time to watch atm;)
This one is interesting as I didn't think it would retrace this much, but that's forex for you ah.
Catch you soon
Slam
time for a bit of a bounce off 1200 for the AUD against the Kiwi?
http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/6...4102006pi2.jpg
Morning Peat
No confirmed reversal signal yet on the daily but there could be some Gann support coming in around 1230.
arco