Skellerup (SKL) Fundamentals
New thread to separate from the chart view.
One thing worth noting re SKL fundamentals is the comment in the Chairman's notes that states "...its (the Industrial division) EBITDA is anticipated to increase to approximately 60% of group EBITDA in the 2007 year".
This statement is significant. Last year, agri provided $16m EBITDA and industrial $17m. Now, unless agri is shrinking, this is a substantial change. Based on agri remaining constant, a 60% contribution from industrial would indicate EBITDA of $40m - a $7m or 21% increase on prior year. A small amount of growth in agri to $16.5m would indicate EBITDA of $41.3m, or a 25% increase.
While interest expense is likely to increase, an estimated increase in interest cost of $2.5m would still see an increase in NPAT of $3 - $4m, taking NPAT to $16.4-$17.4m. Allowing for some dilution from the DRP, this would put them on a forward P/E of 8.8 - 9.3 at current share price of $1.44.
Has SKL turned the corner?
1H10 looks a bit more upbeat then previous announcements.
- Net debt reduced to $34m from over $100m a year ago.
- Resumption of dividends.
- Profit upgrade from $7.1m to $8.5m.
- Operating cashflow up.
The company forecasts FY net profit to 30 June 2010 of $8.5m ($9.5 if you exclude the one-off currency expense/loss).
EPS = $8.5/188.4m shares = 4.5c
PE = 52c/4.5c = 11.5x
I notice in the presentation that the company is forecasting net profit for the y/e 30 June 2011 of approx $14m.
EPS = $14m/188.4m shares = 7.4c
PE = 52c/7.4c = 7.0x
Expecting to see a marked improvement in profitability...
Always good to keep an eye out for the quarterly newsletter.
Don Stewart is always the key read - sounding positive that trading has been above expectation, January sales kicked off well and reiterating the forecast of a return to "normal profit levels" for 2011.
The profile on Tumedei also forecasts a 30% increase in sales budget for next year.
Though a vote of appreciation from the owner of a pair of gumboots that were purchased in 1968 (and only just began leaking) may suggest that repeat purchases are less common than investors might like :eek2:
and in the blue corner, Paper Tiger
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Phaedrus
Huh? Far from confusing the chart, the OBV adds further clarity - and I certainly cannot see any "dubious-looking" OBV step! Reading through the OBV signals :-
http://i7.photobucket.com/albums/y26...L-20100708.png
For someone who puts great store on these dubious "OBV step thinggies" you ought to check your data source more carefully. (Hint look right)
regards
Paper Tiger