MOA float next month.
Same geniuses as 42 Below.
Who's in?
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MOA float next month.
Same geniuses as 42 Below.
Who's in?
No chance..
I have steered clear of it too. Don't think it will mota.
Its tasty, but no
In 12 months maybe.
I can remember at least 4 small Breweries starting up in Henderson in the 80's.. All went belly up..
No.. Not for me thanks..
Snrs.
You stay with the Corona - yes? perfecto.
I personally think you'd need to be retarded to buy into this offer, but as a disclaimer, I thought that about 42below and Xero too. So take from that what you will.
I suspect I will never find a business with those sort of financials wanting that sort of valuation that I would be willing to buy. Maybe I'm just not the target market?
Regardless, there are clearly people who are willing to gamble with the deck stacked against them so I hope, like Xero in particular, the Moa guys can at least use the idiots money to build a real business.
If nothing else, using money voluntarily provided by idiots to build something real and giving them breadcrumbs of the return is way better for society than just stealing it from the idiots, which is the normal fate of the idiot.
Good luck to them, I will definitely take a look after its been funded by the idiots, and would be interested if one day its a real business at a reasonable price.
Wont be investing but will keep an eye on them. I dont see them having the same potetial as 42B, or even Ecoya and those are well below the potential of Xro and DIL.
Interesting way to reduce IPO costs by selling advertising in the investment statement (or were they all Business Bakery companies?)
Always wanted to know the etiquette when to open doors and all that stuff ,,, but hard to keep your eyes off the chick on the grey horse .... OMG she putting herself in danger riding like ... could have at least put a hard hat on in case she fell off in her excitment
I won't be in for this float either but still wish the company success. Goodness knows, the NZX needs more listings and a bit of excitement never goes amiss!
From Brian Gaynor
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10840164
I found this article excellent reading, appreciating the comparisons of companies but was staggered at the mention of the rich Robinson family, RAK.
Like others, I wish MOA well, but will watch from the sidelines.
Was 42 Below a fluke?
Is Ecoya a wonder company which is going to find a buyer (sucker?) like Bacardi paid up for 42 Below? Bear in mind that 42 Below happened during the go-go M&A mad era when alcohol companies were going crazy paying top prices for just about everything. Lion Nathan and Fosters are still nursing the destruction of wealth from paying crazy prices for wine companies.
When you have answered for yourself the two questions above, make your decision.
BTW - Geoff Ross has created more value for NZ and in the end for investors than Allan Hawkins, Eric Watson, Colin Reynolds, Bruce Judge etc put together ever did.
There are 17 comments so far, none appear to be supporting the float
So far. The problem with that comparison is that certain of those names were WAY out in front, part way through their story.
The problem with these "promotional" types and their associated companies is it really hard to know what you're dealing with and how they will react when things go really wrong.
As you say, 42 Below was sold at the peak of the boom.
It is a little early to be adding up the wealth created by Geoff Ross and comparing it to history - the 1986 numbers by some of those names would have been mighty impressive.
Anyone who has ever thought about starting a business (or better still, started one) knows how risky and tough it can be.
It's not just the $$$ you have to put in that's at risk, it's also all the time you put into thinking, planning, strategizing and then, executing.
How do you really measure those $$$ and the time put in?
That's really what the Moa IPO is about.
CJ this cat will be taking a good look at the prospectous Made good money out of 42Below would not even look at Ecoya but yet it has done fairly well & they seem to be going well in rescuing Dorchestor. So in my opinion well worth a look. The Mill liquor chain seems to be doing well selling different Beers & other alcoholic drinks so I think there is a market out there for different beers. But the Greymouth one did not get off the ground. But seemed to be limited to one brand & style. This from what I make of it so far is many labels & styles. Would be even more interested if I could drink it. But Alcohol is a definite No No with the medication I am taking. Anybody tasted any of there Beers? Opinions on taste would be much appreciated.
At the end of the day beer is beer,personally I tend to buy on price.Corona was my favourite tipple,but the price has gone up and I simply look at others cheaper now.
I think it is about the brand and the marketing,Geoff Ross is all about marketing.
The brand is a kiwi icon in the making, purely because it is unique to NZ.eg Tui and speights(very well marketed products,with a very big kiwi mind hold).
Geoff Ross hasn't put a foot wrong yet,his timing is right.
But for value,I think that depends how you look at it.
I Won't buy yet.
Yes, I'm sure that it's all about branding and marketing. I don't drink a lot of beer but I rarely try one that I don't like! It's a matter of developing a cult following amongst the young - I'm pretty confident that Geoff Ross and his team are up to that. After that, it becomes a question of whether Lion or DB move first to swalllow them up; when that happens and at what price. A sort of market development laboratory for the big brewers.
I think the problem is the cost of the product. I went to buy some drinks last night at a supemarket and thought I would try a Moa. At just under $10 for a 375ml bottle, you are looking at $100 -$120 a dozen pending on the type. What are they going to charge in a nice bar? Macduffy you mentioned about developing a cult following amongs the young. They won't be able to afford it in NZ. Oh by the way, I got a dozen Kingfisher for $19.99. :)
Skydog is that the brewerys Fault or the Supermarkets. With supermarkets it usually the story about who is paying the biggest Kick Back
Little beer quarter has pints pale ale for about 10 bucks
skydog.. You have to be joking.. " At just under $10 for a 375ml bottle, ".. I find this very hard to believe ..
How much had you consumed before you entered this Supermarket ??
From the Moa website dated June
These days it’s all about doing more with less – bang for buck and the like. So, Moa is releasing a leaner and cheaper packaging range.
From June, the Moa Estate range (Moa Methode, Moa Blanc, Moa Noir and Moa Pale Ale) sports a fancy new look 4-pack and more than 30% off the price – $18.99 RRP down from $27.99.
“The new price point makes great, homegrown Kiwi craft beer even more accessible for the discerning beer hunter,” says Moa General Manager Gareth Hughes.
“We had some feedback from the market that the price of a Moa Estate 4 pack was too high, so we have taken that on board and made the necessary changes to address that. Our cost of goods has been sliced, our retailers have the opportunity to upsell from single bottle sales to 4 packs and the punters get the same super premium product at a better price. It what they call a win win win.”
The new packaging features a redesigned 330ml bottle, down from its 375ml predecessor and a slight drop in alcohol content (5.5% to 5%) to sidestep the looming excise tax hike.
Hughes says the changes make Moa a more streamlined and competitive exporter – a big plus given recent US expansion.
“Things such as glass savings, lighter pallet weights and less cardboard all play a big part in the export game. Naturally, such a big price drop is a positive for both Kiwi and US consumers,” he says.
The RRP on Moa Estate 12 packs will also drop from $6.99 per bottle to $4.99 and Moa Reserve 12 packs from $8.49 to $6.99.
Come August, Moa favourites Moa Original & Weka Cider also get a new look ‘carry carton’ package style.
Thanks winner.. Confirmation.. No interest.. Heard the man on radio today espousing " The Cloudy Bay of Beer "..
No further comment...
Never tasted it, but at that money, I'd rather buy some cheaper imported beer....
I remember the day when everything Eric Waston touched turned to gold. Hopefully Geoff wont suffer the same state.
I am in Ecoya in a small way. Their candle business didn't inspire me that much but now they have Trilogy, I think the two fit well together (shared distribution, marketing etc).
Re Moa, I think the growth required is to great (what is their break even point).
Interesting that Brian G didn't include BurgerFuel in his table. A similar IPO (NZAX though) and based on 42Below/Moa style advertising. It sunk to some very deep lows but now seems to have things on track. Very illiquid though.
Obviously not the target market sideshow
Give Ross et al their dues .... they stick to their guns about a PREMIUM offering .... jeez that distilled alcohol with some feijoa in it was expensive ..... and a lot of people just love the $35/$40 nice smelling candles ..... and no doubt many love this beer which is priced above msot over brands
Just like that naked chick astride a white stallion sells candles so will the cool dudes and short skirted long legged chicks in the prospectus sell Moa .... a different class of punter than what you see Sunday morning in Courtenay Place i must say
No further comment ..
Janner, I was sober. The selection of these craft beers is now huge. Seems like every man and his dog is giving it a go. I did also notice many of the other beers are a 500ml bottle at about the same price. I just think kiwi craft beers might think too highly of themselves and try to price accordinaly.Each to their own tastes and budget. A good website for beers / pricing is www.beercellar.co.nz
I speculate that the unstated aim of this enterprise is to build sufficient market share to annoy their major Japanese or Dutch competitors and provoke one of them into making a takeover bid.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Speights, the pride of Tokyo.
Morton Coutts friend of the working man, ja rechts.
I expect you lot all still drink cask wine then?
This might interest others for comparison pricing. http://www.themill.co.nz/
"Craft brewer a likely takeover target"
Seems like Christchurch Press business columnist Chalkie and I are of the same mind about Moa being a potential takeover target by either one of our Japanese or Dutch major brewers.
According to Chalkie the brewer from Tokyo has just completed the takeover of a minor brewer across the ditch.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...akeover-target
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
As a female beer drinking share investor, the slightly sexist prospectus (even if it is tongue in cheek) isn't really doing it for me. Bought shares in Ecoya when they were well below IPO price. Might wait for a year down the track and see where Moa is it.
Moa lists today at midday. Hugely oversubscribed so will be interesting to see if it goes up.
Did anyone apply?
I saw Ross was buying more shares and thought this was a great vote of confidence. As I wasn't investing, I didn't read the prospectus but apparently "The float includes limited recourse loans for the purchase of $1.1 million of redeemable shares under the offer issued at the offer price by Ross". http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=10847020 I assume this means he only has to repay if the share price goes up.
So his 'vote of confidence' is really a scam.
Expected to list at a premium per the link. 3 min till we find out.
Milford Asset Management Limited is a SSH. To be honest, given the high valuation, I'm surprised they are in so deep.I also brought into the IPO. This was purely speculative as it was way over subscribed. I'll be out as soon as there is a sniff of weakness in the share price.
Drifting now towards issue price of $1.25.
It has been 3 weeks since the shares listed and there has been no announcements - the company needs to pump out good news soon if it is to hold issue price.
Ecoya is now below issue price and is nearly 40% down on its share price peak in the middle of the year.
I've already sold my measly allocation. I hope I am wrong in selling out. I'd like to see it succeed.
One of the things that prompted me to sell was tasting their wheat beer. It reminded me of my home brew efforts.
Good morning team,
I'm thinking of buying some MOA as gifts for some young relatives.
Anybody know if they do any shareholder offers, like Delegats and Terravitae do with wine ?
Might be a deciding factor !
Thanks
No such luck (yet)
but I did get a 'thank you' type letter with 2 stickers and the offer of a free t shirt. Currently my wife and I are arguing over who gets the t shirt
Brian is a big supporter of these early stage listings from what I understand. [edit: and without support from the likes of him, this IPO would never have gone ahead. Business Bakery would have been sounding out these types of firms for a while.]
Win some... Lose some.. :-))
Not for me !!..
OK, so it's Delegats and Terravitae for them then. They can learn to like wine.
Brian Gaynor and Milford used to have the magic touch - anything they bought, the market followed and pushed the share price up - giving Milford lovely gains on their fund, and investors very happy.
With the deep decline of Ecoya, the drop of Moa and BFW in recent times but the rise and rise of Diligent (Diligent being the stock which gave Milford its superlative returns but which Milford has been reducing) - one guesses the market will be more wary in future.
Everything ultimately comes back to fundamentals.
I don't expect too much from MOA until their new brewery is up and running and then it will be the job for the sales team to get out and actually sell the beer in great volume.
It was a very hyped up IPO, a lot of advertisement etc I can understand how some who thought "owning a brewery" would be better than this and sell out. I suppose its just taking the nervous ones out of the framework!
Personally I think the overhyped IPO focused on the 'owning a brewery' rather than financial return so a stagnant shareprice should have been expected. At least until the new facility was built and they proved they could increase sales volumes.
Anyone who went into this for short term gain was mistaken - I assumed everyone bought in expecting a voucher for free beer with every annual report <- bragging rights for the summer BBQ.
Tuatara has just received backing to enable them to go from 1m Litres to 4.5m litres : http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...uatara-Brewery
I am not sure how Rangatira reports its different divisions but if it does break it out, this will be interesting to watch going forward to see how it compares to MOA's progress.
Rather large downgrade today....stock did not reopen so tomorrow is going to be painful for those owning the name.
They are pretty much at maximum capacity. As far as I'm aware they are brewing 24/7 on a very small system - something that is incredibly inefficient labour wise. I believe they brew 1200L four times a day. It makes much more sense to have a larger brew system and brew once a day, reducing labour by a quarter (no matter the size of each brew, it takes pretty much the same time).
Good timing for this promo
http://www.moabeer.com/2013/08/buy-m...-of-a-brewery/
10 prizes of 1,000 shares
so not the restraints of a near capacity brewing facility but total overe estimation of how much of the stuff will be drunk.
getting it wrong by 30% is pretty horrendous ... so lets blame the distributor eh
maybe as one poster pointed out it's just too expensive for what it is .... I sort of agree .... even Little Creatures wasn't that expensive.
So now we will see heaps more marketing and promotional activity. That could be interesting as long as they do better than free shares. Look forward to see what marketing guru Ross comes up with
Need to get more punters to convert and become regulars else that new brand new extended brewery isn't going to be too busy.
Well - sales are expected to be down 30% so they can cut out one of those brews.
My comment was a bit tongue in cheek but the point was if you can sell what you have got, a bigger factory isn't going to help. It would be interesting to know if when first commissioned, the larger more modern plant brings down the per unit cost (due to the old one being so inefficient) or whether the fixed costs and excess capacity means they do need to ramp up their sales.
This will be interesting. Ross isn't known for turning a profit (not what he was aiming for) but he is for creating and marketing a brand to drive increased sales. Bad news for him if he cant achieve, especially when combined with Ecoya, or should I say Trilogy since hes now having to rely on the 'bolt on' acquisition.
I wonder how they are going at using the Americas Cup to create US sales.
how many bottles in 65,000 cases ... the shortfall
70 cent share price by the end of the day anyone?
They will be in there supporting the share price, I suspect.
It is all going to come down to whether they can buy enough to hold the price at a reasonable level - while talking up the future prospects.
Has been done before - Best Corporation and Rakon for a while.
Cannot have their unit holders think they cannot pick another Diligent.
Punters who followed Milford in will have one chance to get the hell out today - while there is an attempt, I suspect, at price support.
After that, it can get really ugly.
Look at Ecoya (Trilogy) - those who got out on the trading update on 25 Sept 2012 got out very well at over $1.00.
TA Target** if the share price falls below $1.10 is 95c....The price is a line in the sand at the 70% probability area its not a support area...TA Target says if MOA falls below 1.10 it has a 70% chance of it reaching 95c.
The 1.10 price is the primary support line for MOA
** TA Target 1.10 ( 125-110 ) = 0.95c
How can you gauge where stops could be in a freefall below primary floor.
Have to apply various forms of TA voodoo...Animal inctincts have been mathematically calculated of sorts....So apply the Fibonacci Extension onto the primary support 1.10 as we have no other reference atm
105 at 61.8% 103 at 50% and 101 at 38.2%
....as the opening seems to be below these numbers we could psychologically put a very tenative temporary assumption that these prices could become the new resistance lines for now...these assumptions would probably change once trading opens and the dust settles.
Pretty bad stuff up, selling 30% lower than estimated whilst in the middle of a huge brewery expansion. What was the point of the IPO again? Oh right I know...
Sorry stoploss was the wrong word. I realise that its an illiquid share but wonder what price milford will attempt to get out? I realise noone will buy the shares... But an attempt is better than a complete loss right??
30% down on $14k traded only, damn
A few buyers entering at 80c from the look of it. [edit: a few nibbling at 86c - Milford pretending to support the price?]
For a normal profit making company, a 30% reduction in turnout would wipe out your profit. Not sure how it works for a company already in losses.
Dangerous for those who decide to have a play
Moa could be the last IPO by the Ross/Baker boys until they prove to the market that 42 Below was no fluke.
Could be a long long time away.
a paper loss of over $2M today could slow them down...eh Bal
update 80c new support ...there's a possible hanging man with a tail to 80c on the 15minute chart, that could be bullish sign that 80 is it (the bottom for now)....but can you trust these Japanese fellas?
thought i try one so me mate brought one back for me yuk after two sips i took it back and say to the bar tender me mate was confused i actually asked for a macs not this , luckily an understanding barman gave me my macs and i gave him the sewer water
Low of 80c now trading $1.05, all over the place.
Hi moosie ... you think it gets slammed back down 10-15-20% over the rest of the week ?
I hope Farmer Hamilton cut his 4000 shares and ran..... :)
With you on that one moosie... they could fall further tomorrow especially if sentiment is weak. Im surprised how well they have held up today actually but Balance may have been right when he insinuated that Milford et al may be buying to hold the price up in what is an liquid stock.