How Serious is this Bear ?

Interesting survey of US market participants shared on CNBC this morning that I won't share till later so as not to influence this poll.
But I think its time for a poll to determine our outlook for the NZX for 2019.

With numerous technical sell signals being fired off and many of the overseas markets looking weak and vulnerable the purpose of this poll is to garner opinion from the collective on how bad prospects are for 2019 ?

Please excuse the metaphorical terminology in the poll questions...I couldn't help myself :)

With respect to the US markets we are only down about 12%-13%. So a better question would be will this correction turn into a Bear. There are other markets in Bear territory though. I’ll vote as late as possible.

Depends upon the index. Russell 2000, the broadest measure is officially down 20%+

Very serious!

https://amp.theguardian.com/business...-business-live

I must admit what I found very interesting and more than a little disconcerting yesterday morning on CNBC was Fed Ex downgrading its outlook significantly based on what its seeing both within America, within Asia with Chinese and Asian growth slowing and in Europe with Brexit. These freight companies are usually a very reliable bellwether indicator for how economic growth is trending. I took particular note of their forward PE being just 10.5 and wondered about the implications for companies like Mainfreight which has been something of a quiet darling of the market for quite some years now and also to some extent Freightways.

More worrying is what this suggests about global economic growth in 2019. Some analysts believe our average forward market PE is still above 20 and yet the consensus forward PE on the S&P 500 is apparently just 14.5.

Its interesting that this poll is pretty well evenly split between people who think there's either no bear or the bear will be quite moderate and those that think the bear has real teeth AND claws. This is not dissimilar to the poll of millionaires (those with more that $1m investable funds) conducted by CNBC yesterday.

I think our market is materially more expensive than a lot of others in terms of its metrics but may hold up relatively well because of the high dividend yields.
That said I also think a very healthy degree of caution and defensiveness is well and truly warranted for one's portfolio as we head into 2019 and being very selective about what stocks you own and how they would weather a possible recession makes good common sense.

There is nothing wrong with holding some cash in these uncertain times and I have over 50% of investable funds in cash at present which is an acknowledgement that overall I think the tide is going out next year so be very careful where you swim !

I'm all in the market bear or not, the only cash I have on the sidelines is that which sits in my trading balance on a temporary basis. I don't see the point in holding any substantial amount of cash in a bank account or under ones mattress, I live a very frugal lifestyle and are happy that way.

[QUOTE=Beagle;741964]I must admit what I found very interesting and more than a little disconcerting yesterday morning on CNBC was Fed Ex downgrading its outlook significantly based on what its seeing both within America, within Asia with Chinese and Asian growth slowing and in Europe with Brexit. These freight companies are usually a very reliable bellwether indicator for how economic growth is trending. I took particular note of their forward PE being just 10.5 and wondered about the implications for companies like Mainfreight which has been something of a quiet darling of the market for quite some years now and also to some extent Freightways.

Same thoughts when I saw those comments from FedEx. Mainfreight has held up remarkably well with barely a hiccup, given their significant operations in USA & Europe. Would have thought Brexit uncertainty would impact on their Euro division.
Disc: hold MFT and love its quiet consistent delivery of results.

Practically no one wants to catch the falling knife atp so looking grim.NZ up 4% for the year could be the best global performer atp.

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Same thoughts when I saw those comments from FedEx. Mainfreight has held up remarkably well with barely a hiccup, given their significant operations in USA & Europe. Would have thought Brexit uncertainty would impact on their Euro division.
Disc: hold MFT and love its quiet consistent delivery of results.

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Fed Ex's comments were forward looking. MFT held up well "so far". Can you not sense the economic storm approaching ? MFT PE 25.4, Fed Ex 10.5 Hmmmm
It has been a tremendous performer over the years I am happy to acknowledge that but as the old saying goes, past performance is no guarantee of future performance ! Good luck !

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Practically no one wants to catch the falling knife atp so looking grim.NZ up 4% for the year could be the best global performer atp.

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We aren't really up 4% on a comparative basis as the NZX50 is a gross index. On a capital basis we are probably about flat which is still a good effort this year globally...

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Originally Posted by couta1

I'm all in the market bear or not

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I would expect nothing else from you Couta. I have great admiration for the positions you take -- even if I have nowhere near the same "bravery".

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Practically no one wants to catch the falling knife atp so looking grim.NZ up 4% for the year could be the best global performer atp.

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Still plenty of buying going on ....still the same number of shares out there

Exactly right there winner.
For you to sell somebody has to buy them from you

Im talking globally guys especially USA. Look at the macro.Beware, and yes so far we are in the lucky country here.

I’ll continue to use the stock market as my savings account and buy every few weeks as I’ve done since I started investing 2016. As more data comes in it does feel like this correction will lead to a bear and perhaps it’s smart to take some money off the table but I would rather use it as an opportunity to buy cheaper shares. The longer and more violent the bear market is the better off I’ll be at the top of the next cycle.

For many here with decades of wealth accumulated and are closer to retirement this isn’t very wise. For the younger posters a bear market is really a great opportunity and should be welcomed as long as we keep employed of course.

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Originally Posted by allfromacell

I’ll continue to use the stock market as my savings account and buy every few weeks as I’ve done since I started investing 2016. As more data comes in it does feel like this correction will lead to a bear and perhaps it’s smart to take some money off the table but I would rather use it as an opportunity to buy cheaper shares. The longer and more violent the bear market is the better off I’ll be at the top of the next cycle.

For many here with decades of wealth accumulated and are closer to retirement this isn’t very wise. For the younger posters a bear market is really a great opportunity and should be welcomed as long as we keep employed of course.

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Good post. This coming year or so could provide outstanding opportunities for younger people to buy very good quality shares at an outstanding price. I hold over 50% cash and will look to deploy some of that as soon as I see decent evidence of green shoots appearing. The poor GDP number this week could be just the beginning. Somewhere near 50% chance of a recession in 2019 or 2020 in my opinion and it could be a tough one.

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Originally Posted by Onion

I would expect nothing else from you Couta. I have great admiration for the positions you take -- even if I have nowhere near the same "bravery".

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Is it well researched bravery? Staying in, is a good adage for someone not actively involved in the sharemarket--But for someone in touch isnt there a new area of defensive shares to explore? or just keeping cash handy? At any given time cash is worth x amount of shares.And shares either increase or decrease their value.There are alot of moving parts here ...but the end result is how many shares(or how much cash) you have in 6mos.n time----You are either going to save valuable cash(=shares) or you are going to lose value of shares by getting out/in-----that really depends on how rosy things are looking in general-----how rosy are they looking? what is the cost of exiting and re entering? what is the cost of staying in?

Some musings.

I started out by wondering how serious is this poll? Then I got sidetracked into thinking about boats, and that turned to "how serious am I as an investor?", and that went back via more musings about life and all that deep and meaningful stuff via more boats and diving and how can I justify blowing $s on liveaboard holidays to go round and round the same circle.

Then Couta1 posted about being all in, and not holding cash. That was enlightening, because I/we am too. In fact for about 20 years I/we have always had any spare money in the market - either on my own or my kids account. And the value of the portfolio goes up and the value of the portfolio goes down, but over the last twenty years it has always gone up more than down. That might or might not continue, but since I/we have just kept living within my income and putting a wee bit away, it keeps growing anyway. Some people see the signs of we have a bear coming? Eventually they have gotta be right. So the nest egg goes down - a bit, a lot, or maybe not.
be wiped out or

Which brings me back to the boats and the amazing diving in the Coral Sea and doing it while we still can vs really sweating about the coming bear and how to cover my testicles. And I don't care about the bear because I/we can't take it with me/us, and though I/we don't live as frugally as Couta1, my week in the Coral Sea could well be paid for or made insignificant in relation to a market disaster by a sneeze in the Global Economy.
So I don't care about the bear!

Just reminding us of the prime debt debacle so this new bear has grown a set of teeth and sharpened claws and will do damage but I will be buying/accumulating those stocks I'm wanting, so bring it on! Gut-feel-portfolio has undergone autophagy for 2018 and needing to chew some stocks to break its fast come 2019 :cool:

I'm with Couta and davflaws.

Bullmarkets come and they go..... and as I've said before, "the day I see Warren Buffett sell out of his portfolio, will be the day I panic."

While remaining 80% invested, I have 20% available for any bargains as they arise, and am mindful that indexes such as the NZX, S&P, Dow etc are really just averaging machines. Within these 'averages' there will always be shares that underperform and shares that out-perform. It is the TA and FA of individual companies that I watch the most. My investing goals are always long term in nature with an eye to beating the 'average' as defined by NZX50 and beating average term deposit levels offered by the banks.

So far I've managed that every year I've been invested. Indeed my once doubtful retirement fund is now way more than I'll ever need.

2018 has been my toughest investment year so far both in terms of the stock picking competition and my own portfolio which is currently up 21% ytd, despite this I remain hopefully 'well positioned.'

Disappointed with how your portfolio has gone this quarter or this month ?
Relax, you're not the only one. Its been the worst December on the US markets since the Great Depression in 1931 ! https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12181082
That's the worst in 87 years ! Many people don't realize that the US tax year ends on 31 December so I expect a lot more tax loss selling between now and then to reduce tax bills.

We now have a slight majority who think this is all a fairly benign situation. I disagree and as always, am happy to follow my own instincts and be very defensive.

DOW testing the rising Trend line from ... the low during GFC 2009!
:scared:

Colin Twiggs weighs in on confirming "the Bear market" has arrived, but it's not the economy causing it. http://tradingdiary.incrediblecharts...onomy-gold.php

Thanks BB.Makes sense but how many people have worked that out with all the positive graphs there as well as low low unemployment?

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Originally Posted by allfromacell

I’ll continue to use the stock market as my savings account and buy every few weeks as I’ve done since I started investing 2016. As more data comes in it does feel like this correction will lead to a bear and perhaps it’s smart to take some money off the table but I would rather use it as an opportunity to buy cheaper shares. The longer and more violent the bear market is the better off I’ll be at the top of the next cycle.

For many here with decades of wealth accumulated and are closer to retirement this isn’t very wise. For the younger posters a bear market is really a great opportunity and should be welcomed as long as we keep employed of course.

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when you say ''cheaper shares''...do you mean cheaper than yesterday....or cheaper than tomorrow?

I vacillated between options 3 and 4. I voted for option 3 but the more this goes on the more I am leaning towards this heavy large bear with real teeth and claws doing sustained and significant damage.

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Originally Posted by skid

when you say ''cheaper shares''...do you mean cheaper than yesterday....or cheaper than tomorrow?

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Cheaper than yesterday certainly, but cheaper than tomorrow? I don't believe that any person with any degree of certainty can answer that. What I can say is the stock market moves in cycles, there are periods of expensive shares when the market is full with euphoria and periods of cheaper shares when it is plagued with fear.

My strategy as outlined above is simple, I'll continue to buy the same sized parcels throughout. When we look back at the top of the next cycle I'll be able to say I bought a lot of 'cheaper' shares and likely have a nice average. Like i said before most posters here have decades of wealth accumulated and don't have the same amount of time should probably plan to preserve capital.

We live in interesting times. ANZ Bank has predicted the OCR will be cut to just 1% in 2020.
How does this compare with the interest I receive from the following shares? The figures are from Craigs and they are gross yields.
.................................................. .....2018.........................2019............ ....Share price when complied.
TRA.Turners Automotive Group .............9%...........................9.8%.... ...................$2.40
GNE.Genesis Energy.............................8.8%........... ..............9%..........................$2.51
HGH.Heartland Group Holdings...............8.3%....................... .8.8%......................$1.50..[current sp $1.36 makes the yield even higher]
MEL.Meridian Energy..............................8%..... .....................8.1%........................$ 3.22
SPK.Spark......................................... ....7.6%........................7.6%.............. ..........$4.27

With the OCA reducing, will buyers concentrate on the above high yielding stocks.?

Yes and No Percy. Defensive high yielding shares like the utilities and some REIT's have already been strong outperformers in recent weeks and I expect that to continue (e.g I bought shed loads of ARG a few weeks ago for $1.07 and am already up over 10% plus a dividend) and many other defensive shares have been outperformers.

Unfortunately vehicle companies, retailers and financials have historically been very poor performers in a bear market so their ability to pay the dividends Craigs is forecasting will be in doubt.

You're absolutely right to highlight the risk to people's future returns on cash and short term deposits. Thanks for that. I might have a look at further boosting my investment in utilities in early 2019.

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Originally Posted by Beagle

Good post. This coming year or so could provide outstanding opportunities for younger people to buy very good quality shares at an outstanding price. I hold over 50% cash and will look to deploy some of that as soon as I see decent evidence of green shoots appearing. The poor GDP number this week could be just the beginning. Somewhere near 50% chance of a recession in 2019 or 2020 in my opinion and it could be a tough one.

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If the bear really bites, is cash ($NZ) the best place to wait it out? Last time around, $NZ took quite a hit against $US as flight to quality kicked in. $US then gold?

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Originally Posted by Biscuit

If the bear really bites, is cash ($NZ) the best place to wait it out? Last time around, $NZ took quite a hit against $US as flight to quality kicked in. $US then gold?

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I wouldn't hold $US this time as the US has massive external debt now. Honestly its a pretty fluid situation and one needs to adapt their investment strategy as this unfolds.
For what its worth I am now 55% in $NZ cash, and most of the rest of my investments are in defensive stocks like GNE, MEL, ARG, OCA (yes this is defensive as its needs based late stage healthcare), ZEL (consumer staple) and some modest stakes in SML HGH, AIR.

I don't think the market has really cottoned on to the fact that OCA is pretty defensive.

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Originally Posted by Beagle

I wouldn't hold $US this time as the US has massive external debt now. Honestly its a pretty fluid situation and one needs to adapt their investment strategy as this unfolds.
For what its worth I am now 55% in $NZ cash, and most of the rest of my investments are in defensive stocks like GNE, MEL, ARG, OCA (yes this is defensive as its needs based late stage healthcare), ZEL (consumer staple) and some modest stakes in SML HGH, AIR.

I don't think the market has really cottoned on to the fact that OCA is pretty defensive.

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Interesting, thanks. I largely stopped buying shares a couple of years ago and have been selling down since then but am still roughly 50:50 shares and cash in terms of financial assets. Have never invested in gold but am seriously thinking about it this time as I think there is potential for the proverbial to really hit the fan this time. I will watch the exchange rates and switch to $US if the $NZ starts to wobble. I think the bigger problems are likely to be elsewhere than US initially and in uncertainty people will look for safety and where is that? Not Europe, not Britain

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Originally Posted by Biscuit

Interesting, thanks. I largely stopped buying shares a couple of years ago and have been selling down since then but am still roughly 50:50 shares and cash in terms of financial assets. Have never invested in gold but am seriously thinking about it this time as I think there is potential for the proverbial to really hit the fan this time. I will watch the exchange rates and switch to $US if the $NZ starts to wobble. I think the bigger problems are likely to be elsewhere than US initially and in uncertainty people will look for safety and where is that? Not Europe, not Britain

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I bought gold during the gfc. Never sold it but it’s only worth much the same as it was then.

Hope they are still where I hid them. Better goand check eh

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Originally Posted by winner69

I bought gold during the gfc. Never sold it but it’s only worth much the same as it was then.

Hope they are still where I hid them. Better goand check eh

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Where did you hide it? I won't tell! Gold price ramped up slowly during the GFC and then back down again - was still a good decision to buy, just not so good a decision to hold. Commodity funds are probably a better way to hold gold than buried in the back yard?

Don't rule out keeping your cash in British pounds as The British Banks still have a bank Guarantee scheme up to £80,000.

New Zealand bought one in briefly during GFC but did away with it. Would be nice to know that cash deposits were safe in turbulent times

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Originally Posted by Beagle

Yes and No Percy. Defensive high yielding shares like the utilities and some REIT's have already been strong outperformers in recent weeks and I expect that to continue (e.g I bought shed loads of ARG a few weeks ago for $1.07 and am already up over 10% plus a dividend) and many other defensive shares have been outperformers.

Unfortunately vehicle companies, retailers and financials have historically been very poor performers in a bear market so their ability to pay the dividends Craigs is forecasting will be in doubt.

You're absolutely right to highlight the risk to people's future returns on cash and short term deposits. Thanks for that. I might have a look at further boosting my investment in utilities in early 2019.

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Most finance companies crashed as they had lent to property developers.The likes of Fisher and Paykel Finance and Smiths City Finance had no problems.Marac's property exposure meant they had to recapitalise [HGH].However the rest of Marac's finance book,mainly motor vehicles preformed well.I expect HGH'd balanced lending should see few problems,and their REL business is sound.

Turners appeared to have had only one bad year 2008,and then had a very profitanle year in 2009.Today being a vertically integrated business, means they have a much sounder business, that is stronger than most others in their sector.

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Originally Posted by allfromacell

Cheaper than yesterday certainly, but cheaper than tomorrow? I don't believe that any person with any degree of certainty can answer that. What I can say is the stock market moves in cycles, there are periods of expensive shares when the market is full with euphoria and periods of cheaper shares when it is plagued with fear.

My strategy as outlined above is simple, I'll continue to buy the same sized parcels throughout. When we look back at the top of the next cycle I'll be able to say I bought a lot of 'cheaper' shares and likely have a nice average. Like i said before most posters here have decades of wealth accumulated and don't have the same amount of time should probably plan to preserve capital.

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Fair enough...who knows.... you may get both(cheaper than yesterday and cheaper than tomorrow)

[QUOTE=Biscuit;742113]Interesting, thanks. I largely stopped buying shares a couple of years ago and have been selling down since then but am still roughly 50:50 shares and cash in terms of financial assets. Have never invested in gold but am seriously thinking about it this time as I think there is potential for the proverbial to really hit the fan this time. I will watch the exchange rates and switch to $US if the $NZ starts to wobble. I think the bigger problems are likely to be elsewhere than US initially and in uncertainty people will look for safety and where is that? Not Europe, not Britain[/QUOTE

Ive got Gold ..but more for insurance purposes...............and Im just about to stash some actual physical cash away as well ...just in case of worst case scenario..(I did it for awhile in the meltdown).....things getting that bad are smaller odds .....but so was Trump.

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Originally Posted by skid

Ive got Gold ..but more for insurance purposes...............and Im just about to stash some actual physical cash away as well ...just in case of worst case scenario..(I did it for awhile in the meltdown).....things getting that bad are smaller odds .....but so was Trump.

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What form have you bought and hold gold?

Yeah, it looks serious, for the DOW anyway. It is now massively below punters favourite MA's. Plunged below it's Feb and Apr lows this week and disconcertingly took a shot at the looong term uptrend from 2009 (green line), but closed below that today! A close below such a long uptrend is definitely concerning. We have a Bear for sure.

Today's close was spookily right around the 50% Fibonacci re-trace (not really a Fib but still included in TA) from the time Trump got the presidency. Geepers, 50% loss of gains already, he'll be worrying that 50% of his good management has gone down the gurgler already. Interesting that a couple of obvious price supports also coincide with the 61.8% and the 78.6% Fib re-traces. Bugger that our NZX takes its cues from the DOW/SP500.

Time to blame the Fed again, but whoa, it's not their fault! The US economy is doing fine. Maybe Trump can fix what he's broken by removing the punitive tariffs on China (and others) and restoring some confidence in the market that he so coveted during the rise to previously uncharted heights.

It's been awhile since there was a Xmas Grinch instead of a Xmas rally. This sure is one of those times.

Attachment 10215

Oops, forgot to mention the double Death Cross, 50EMA down through both the 200MA and 200EMA. What a week!

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Originally Posted by Biscuit

Where did you hide it? I won't tell! Gold price ramped up slowly during the GFC and then back down again - was still a good decision to buy, just not so good a decision to hold. Commodity funds are probably a better way to hold gold than buried in the back yard?

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Paint your gold brick and use it to keep the door open. Gold is even or slightly up in one year atp, im hoping for a good rise in price from here. .i own a few gold stocks on ASX and a bit of kauri gum.

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Originally Posted by Biscuit

Interesting, thanks. I largely stopped buying shares a couple of years ago and have been selling down since then but am still roughly 50:50 shares and cash in terms of financial assets. Have never invested in gold but am seriously thinking about it this time

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as I think there is potential for the proverbial to really hit the fan this time. I will watch the exchange rates and switch to $US if the $NZ starts to wobble. I think the bigger problems are likely to be elsewhere than US initially and in uncertainty people will look for safety and where is that? Not Europe, not Britain

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Kiwi bonds are Government guaranteed. Cindy's Kindy won't let you down will they ?

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Paint your gold brick and use it to keep the door open. Gold is even or slightly up in one year atp, im hoping for a good rise in price from here. .i own a few gold stocks on ASX and a bit of kauri gum.

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Kauri Gum? Hugh?Is it wort something? I have a rugby ball sized bit sitting on the bench.
Googling & found this for you JT
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=11322170

What impending crash in the US?

You guys worry far too much. So many experts who look after zillions can’t be wrong

From @carlquintanilla on Twitter
Number of major Wall Street strategists who think the S&P will fall next year: Zero.

Each time the #SP500 $SPX dropped over -13% in fourth quarter:

2018 Financial Crisis?

2008 Financial Crisis

1987 Black Monday

1973 Energy Crisis

1941 World War II

1929-1937 Great Depression

1920 Major recession

1917 World War I

1907 Financial Crisis

I have no experience of bears. It seems to be the case that 'traditional' defensive stocks go up (ARG etc) as expected, but I've been amazed that similar products in the retirement sector, which, basically are still 'property' investments, have gone down. Logically they have a better hope of returns from their business than straight property companies, yet they've taken a bath. Perhaps their drop has been more related to fears for the residential property market?

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Originally Posted by Biscuit

What form have you bought and hold gold?

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Gold Kiwi 1 once coins....but I would recommend going with Kitco and getting Gold Maple 1 0z coins or similar---keeping it in coins is more liquid and there are no issues with purity etc.-------Im just keep them in a coffee can where no one can find them,buried by my oak tree at 15 pleasent ave**




**just a joke folks --dont go digging up some poor blokes yard

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Originally Posted by Jerry

I have no experience of bears. It seems to be the case that 'traditional' defensive stocks go up (ARG etc) as expected, but I've been amazed that similar products in the retirement sector, which, basically are still 'property' investments, have gone down. Logically they have a better hope of returns from their business than straight property companies, yet they've taken a bath. Perhaps their drop has been more related to fears for the residential property market?

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If it gets bad ...property could easily take a hit,although property survived pretty well the last crash here in NZ......USA was a different story--------------------you can always go back and track shares during the GFC

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Originally Posted by skid

If it gets bad ...property could easily take a hit,although property survived pretty well the last crash here in NZ......USA was a different story--------------------you can always go back and track shares during the GFC

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Yes neither did Aussie property but I don't think we will be that lucky this time with 1 in 10 kiwis employed in the property sector if the easy credit that fueled the HUGE increase in values (locally here in just the last couple of years property is up on average 50%+ homes-100%+ sections/land) come under pressure and we see rates forced upwards >> values should well be forced downwards

I guess the US market dictates the world markets especially now with large global investors playing in many markets and the effect of etfs accumulating shares in various markets. The challenges I see in 2019:

> US Government shutdown and the implications of a long drawn out battle between red and blue
> US Fed rate hikes continuing and an inverted yield curve
> US trade war with China escalating especially with Trumps erratic behaviour
> Brexit looking more and more like a slow moving train crash
> Slowing growth is Europe, Japan and China

(not an exhaustive list)

The thing with a lot of this is that locally our political situation is a lot more stable relatively speaking. While the nzx50 is overvalued, the fundamentals of the companies have not changed materially in the past 6 months, neither has the macro economic environment. Government debt is tracking lower and unemployment is lower, and we aren't in the face of major geo-political changes.

The skeleton is the closet is a housing related crash toppling the rest of the market. The current government, just like the last government have been ineffective in controlling household debt which is currently at an all time high of about 170% and a drop in house prices like they have done in Australia is imo the biggest risk to the macro environment locally.

Political bears don't bite that hard.

Defence in REIT, opportunity inbound on the rebound 2019-2020.

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Originally Posted by skid

Gold Kiwi 1 once coins....but I would recommend going with Kitco and getting Gold Maple 1 0z coins or similar---keeping it in coins is more liquid and there are no issues with purity etc.-------Im just keep them in a coffee can where no one can find them,buried by my oak tree at 15 pleasent ave**




**just a joke folks --dont go digging up some poor blokes yard

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Too late. Neighbourhood destroyed.

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Originally Posted by fungus pudding

Too late. Neighbourhood destroyed.

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Just tell them it was in self defence.....You saw a bear

Hey everything's going to be alright, Trump's going to fire Jerome Powell next!
Lost for words, the wheels, axels, brakes & steering wheel have all come off.

I don’t mind the trumpet. The Americans hired him because they wanted a wall. Who knows whether it comes, but someone will pull out. Whether it be one or the other the wall will get built and the world will survive. Merry Christmas to ALL including Jacinda and Trump.

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Originally Posted by Ggcc

I don’t mind the trumpet. The Americans hired him because they wanted a wall. Who knows whether it comes, but someone will pull out. Whether it be one or the other the wall will get built and the world will survive. Merry Christmas to ALL including Jacinda and Trump.

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Trump should build only the USA/North side of the wall. and add the South side when Mexico coughs up. :t_up::t_up:

As frustrating as Trump is, it's refreshing to have a politician attempt to carry out a lot of what they said they would.

Interestingly there's been quite a big late swing towards option 3 and 4 in the last couple of days. Those believing this is quite a benign situation were in a clear majority a few days ago and now its virtually a 50/50 call. Seriousness of the situation starting to sink in ?

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Originally Posted by allfromacell

As frustrating as Trump is, it's refreshing to have a politician attempt to carry out a lot of what they said they would.

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It certainly is a rarity .... might not agree with his ideas but he does seem to have great stamina to get them done

He's had the Congress and the House to get them done.

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Originally Posted by Jerry

He's had the Congress and the House to get them done.

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Hopeless. Inept.

Can you imagine Clinton, Johnson, or Nixon racking up such a succession of policy failures because they couldn't get the politics right?

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Originally Posted by Ggcc

I don’t mind the trumpet. The Americans hired him because they wanted a wall. Who knows whether it comes, but someone will pull out. Whether it be one or the other the wall will get built and the world will survive. Merry Christmas to ALL including Jacinda and Trump.

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I believe you are calling this situation in black and white ...when it is a thousand shades of grey-----All emotions aside ...Trump is inexperienced...thats a fact....He has now eliminated all the ''experience'' around him---So it is basically just him and ''yes'' men.............That means inexperience rules..........and inexperience makes mistakes....we are seeing that

We dont know what the stock market is going to do for sure....but Trumps input is not coming from an experienced arena

Im sure he will try anything to create a bounce...but his job has gotten a whole lot harder in terms of market confidence.He may try more ''gifts''like the tax cuts,which by now have run out of ''legs''---One way or the other ,the market has now seen a pattern that has defied the bounces after the drops...(confidence wise ...thats a hit)

Its very hard for me to see how this ''wall'' thing is going to work for him....He has owned the shutdown..(congress voted for a budget to avoid the shutdown....and Trump stopped it)..His supporters will not see it...but pretty much all others see that he ''owns'' this............................Meanwhile Democrats are coming to the house in January as a majority (I think we have to accept that things will not be the same as before).......There are alot more things coming to haunt Trump because of the house majority and I think all will agree Trump does things often without thinking them through. Maybe he will luck out again ,but lets face it,sooner or later things catch up...where ever you stand it is uncertain times---there are alot more things out there besides ''the wall''....(and what happens if he cannot swing it for his ''core'')----Would you ''cave'' if you were the Democrats with a chink in Trumps armour on display?.................or maybe everything will be ok and will bounce nicely and carry on.....all one can do is try to figure the odds with what info is available.

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Originally Posted by JBmurc

It certainly is a rarity .... might not agree with his ideas but he does seem to have great stamina to get them done

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Lets not forget that Trump has had the almost unheard of advantage of having both the House and the Senate under his parties control.....has he made good use of this absolute power?..Now his stamina will be put to the test as.Democrats have the House starting in January. All bets are off if we are using the past 2 years to make our predictions-----------------the markets loved Trump because he gave them(the swamp?)anything they wanted ...tax cuts...rolling back regulations...He can try to carry on ...but now there is half of congress to stop him

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Originally Posted by winner69

What impending crash in the US?

You guys worry far too much. So many experts who look after zillions can’t be wrong

From @carlquintanilla on Twitter
Number of major Wall Street strategists who think the S&P will fall next year: Zero.

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Not sure whether that post was dripping with sarcasm or your honest opinion... What were their track records on predicting the GFC?

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Originally Posted by Vagabond47

Not sure whether that post was dripping with sarcasm or your honest opinion... What were their track records on predicting the GFC?

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No idea how these guys did at predicting the GFC

I’ve no idea whether there’s going to be a big crash or not in 2019 but the s&p at 1200 wouldn’t surprise me, nor would the NZ50C at 2500. Things have looked weak all of 2018 haven’t they.

Maybe the question is do we put more credence on the combined wisdom of people on a forum in NZ or the Strategists at the 19 biggest broking / finance companies in the US who think the s&p will go up in 2019.

However the way Mnuchin is behaving today they’ve probably already changed their mind.

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Originally Posted by kiora

Kauri Gum? Hugh?Is it wort something? I have a rugby ball sized bit sitting on the bench.
Googling & found this for you JT
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=11322170

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Nice one thanks.That looks to be a beautiful piece. Its been cleaned and polished and prob varnished/oiled/polurethaned.Its the colour and clarity and purity rather than the size. Most gum is rubbish and some looks like a piece of fat. The older it gets the more transparent,honey, golden syrupy colour it gets and eventually the gum (if its top quality ) goes completely clear ,maybe at 50-60,000 years plus. Air bubbles and inclusions like ants make it more collectable and interesting .

Wall st down 700 as I type on Christmas morning (about to go for a run don't ask) so this is some serious sustained selling. The question is, when do we re-enter the market to pick up some bargains. Not there yet I suspect.

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Originally Posted by blackcap

Wall st down 700 as I type on Christmas morning (about to go for a run don't ask) so this is some serious sustained selling. The question is, when do we re-enter the market to pick up some bargains. Not there yet I suspect.

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Not a question I have to answer as I'm all in and have no intention of exiting.

I'm drip feeding into Smartshares Funds over the next 12 months (S&P 500 and other funds). I started at the start of the month and will stick to the plan.

Waking up to a drop of 2.7 percent was a weirdly nice present. Won't feel so good when I have more in the index.

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Originally Posted by blackcap

Wall st down 700 as I type on Christmas morning (about to go for a run don't ask) so this is some serious sustained selling. The question is, when do we re-enter the market to pick up some bargains. Not there yet I suspect.

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I think Im starting to get the picture---The stock analysts prediction will have to come true because there will not be anywhere further to go ,but up

A recession is a bear, but a bear is not necessarily a recession. This has implications for rebound ability.

1. What's interesting at the moment is that we have a number of companies doing very well, and some good companies faultering for various reasons. This is confusing investors about whether there are economy issues (everything is going great, but there's enough companies floundering to make you nervous).

2. We also have political concerns locally and in the USA. This is making doubts for the future and compounding concerns from point 1.

3. The are also economic problems in some countries, which don't seem to have any bearing on the world economy. Extra negative sentiment to compound concerns from point 2.

That said, we are not currently in a recession and although there are some concerning things going on, i can't see any evidence to suggest that the economy has been sufficiently dented to push us into a recession in the next year or two.

Therefore, i would say that this bear is just market sentiment (which has implications on my buying strategy). That said, it seems like a serious bear because it's triggered TA marks and the media reporting has changed tone (which i believe can cause self fulfilling prophecies), so it could hang around long enough for us to see the effect (if any) of point 2, before either getting much worse or triggering a bull.

Personally, I'm mostly cash except for my wbc stock that i timed poorly (that one im riding out). I'm avoiding high PE stocks because i see these as having lots of sentiment priced in. I will probably use this bear to trickle money back into stocks at a lower price, averaging my buy price over the period of the bear. The gambler in me will probably try to pick the bottom (which will be difficult due to my lack of experience of bears). I will certainly be looking out for bargains in my favorite stocks.

I tend to think in terms of long term trends and where we currently sit, Advisor Perspectives periodically publish updated charts with current trends:
Attachment 10220
Attachment 10221

A lot of macro analysis and technical analysis coming out, I'm interested to see if earnings support this downturn..

If earnings are flat or even down on LY then we could see this go on for a while.

It is going to be either correction or bear market. Either way investors will get opportunity rebalance their portfolio or build a bullet proof portfolio. Heavy Asian market sell-off is overdone. Another option is take some action to hide out in badly beaten down strong balance sheet firms globally to ride out both bear and bull markets in the coming 3 to 10 years.

Heres my guess.....the Fed will come out with some statement that it may not increase interest rates in 2019 quite as much as originally predicted if the economy cools......but anything to do with the president calming markets ...well...all bets are off....We are dealing with one expensive ego in that area.

One expert commentator on CNBC explained the dichotomy in views between the Fed and the market extremely well the other day.
The Fed's mandate is to look solely at domestic US economic data. All reported historical domestic US economic date looks fine and very robust.
The market however is a forward looking animal and knows 45% of the S&P 500 earnings come from exports and is very concerned with the looming trade war and the already crystal clear slowdown in many of the overseas markets. Fed is looking at the historical aspects of apples and the market is looking at the future aspects of oranges. No wonder there's such a difference in their point of view.

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Originally Posted by Beagle

One expert commentator on CNBC explained the dichotomy in views between the Fed and the market extremely well the other day.
The Fed's mandate is to look solely at domestic US economic data. All reported historical domestic US economic date looks fine and very robust.
The market however is a forward looking animal and knows 45% of the S&P 500 earnings come from exports and is very concerned with the looming trade war and the already crystal clear slowdown in many of the overseas markets. Fed is looking at the historical aspects of apples and the market is looking at the future aspects of oranges. No wonder there's such a difference in their point of view.

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Seasons greeting to all...the market certainly has been a common topic of conversation with my friends here in NZ.

I think the the baby boomer demographic is starting to kick in, in mind set, more defensive positions all-round by the sector that holds the wealth.

Auckland and wider property price increases made it easy to make money until of late in NZ and that kills off risk taking and innovation. That has also occurred to a larger part in the US however their recent tax cuts have given a windfall to my cohort as well as allowed us to cash up businesses with a premium as well. Everyone I know has cashed up a large part of their portfolios and taken more defensive positions financially.

Here... where wealth is generally not as large as my US friends, everyone is stressing that their portfolio is now only 25% up rather than 40% overall. Why add the stress as you get older...so many people agonising over what they could have had...

2019 will be volatile overseas, its all set up to be nothing but and the question really is by how much...

Be very afraid when others are very greedy.

Be greedy when others are very fearful.

Always right to listen to the Oracle of Omaha but particularly when the commentary out there is pretty much all about fear.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/w...8-12?r=US&IR=T

“During such scary periods, you should never forget two things: First, widespread fear is your friend as an investor, because it serves up bargain purchases. Second, personal fear is your enemy. It will also be unwarranted. Investors who avoid high and unnecessary costs and simply sit for an extended period with a collection of large, conservatively-financed American businesses will almost certainly do well.”

In other words, don’t fall into widespread panic and begin selling off stocks, because wealth-generating investments are long term.

Widespread euphoria atm DOW over 1,000 points up.