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Originally posted by Mick100
Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Packersoldkidney
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To be honest I don't really put my predictions down to what the chairman of BP says. To me it's just the cycle: at the top of every resources boom, at the top of every cycle, everyone is saying: "this time it's different. This time the boom will go on foreever, just look at the fundamentals" Go back to the 1970's boom and that is what everyone was saying.....especially the economists. What happened? Decades long slump in resources.
All of the resource bull markets in the past have run for 15 to 25 yrs with an average length of 18 yrs from bottom to top.
Your calling the end of this bull after just five yrs packers
I think that your at least 10 yrs early in calling the top
Bull markets climb a wall of worry and there will always be corrections to shake out the weak hands along with some speculators.
To me, these correction indicate a healthy bull market. If things kept going up continuously for 2-3 yr ,then I would be getting nervous. But so far we have had a correction every year so nothing to be concerned about. You make reference to the seventies bull in resources. This bull market actually began in the early 60's but it didn't go mainstream until the early 70's. So if we are going to compare this current bull with that of the 70's we would be at about 1966-67 now. The fact is that 99 out of 100 people don't even know that there is a bull market in commodities at the moment.
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