Tinubu's decisiveness bearing fruit for Nigeria and Naira
Fitch and Moody’s also confirmed that Tinubu’s fuel subsidy cut, and unification of multiple FX rates were positive for the economy. Interestingly, to ease the cost of living burden on the common folk due to fuel spiking post subsidy cuts, Tinubu's temporarily frozen fuel prices, frozen new taxes and signed a new act to boost electricity generation - all within his first 100 days as president.
He's also had some success in temporarily stopping/delaying union strikes.
Nigeria's MASSIVE WIN - UK High Court Ruling against P&ID - Avoids $11 Billion Payout
The London High Court ruling by Justice Robin Knowles reverses an arbitration award over the failed 2010 gas deal between Nigeria and a British Virgin Islands-based firm Process & Industrial Developments Ltd., founded by two Irish businessmen.
The judge overturned the arbitration award that would have required Nigeria to pay $11 billion over a failed gas project, finding the contract was obtained through fraud. The payment would have dealt a massive blow to Nigeria’s economy.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...ct/ar-AA1iHYRb
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/a-british-court-ruling-frees-nigeria-from-paying-11-billion-in-damages-over-a-failed-gas-project/ar-AA1iHYRb
The climb back begins for Naira
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beacon
28% discount to $10.23 NAV of 20/10/23 vs market low of $7.41 today, should VANISH now as we near liquidation distribution in March. With P&ID ruling, Tinubu's decisive reforms which US rating agencies and Investment banks like, and USD liquidity issues being ironed out as we speak, buying NGE has now become the best arbitrage opportunity I've come across in my life. Anyone see a catch?
On Monday, central bank governor Yemi Cardoso said the naira will adjust once rules for market participants are made clear.
Finance Minister Wale Edun also said on Monday that Nigeria was expecting $10 billion in foreign currency inflows in the next few weeks to improve foreign exchange market liquidity. He said, without elaborating, that the inflows would come from the issuance of instruments in dollars, oil sales and foreign investments.
On the official market, the naira recovered to 775 to the dollar from a record low of 999 it touched last week. https://www.reuters.com/markets/curr...fx-2023-10-26/
More green shoots for Naira and NGE
Nigeria’s Supreme Court affirms Tinubu’s presidential victory - ending months of legal battles over the presidential race.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/...ential-victory
In July, Tinubu was also selected to chair the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), putting him at the helm of the African regional bloc.
Trained as an accountant in the US, Tinubu has already decisively introduced key economic reforms that he says will lure investors and make Nigeria a regional economic powerhouse.
Naira up another staggering 18.42% - within a single day
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beacon
Price rising with volume on NGE. Bottom in?
Naira Continues Rebound, Strengthens To N950/$ at Parallel Market.
Simultaneously, the official Investors and Exporters (I&E) window reflected renewed vigour...
An official from the CBN, who wished to remain anonymous, confirmed the settlement of FX forward contracts through 14 banks on Wednesday. He further assured investors that the remaining FX forward contracts would be addressed in the forthcoming week.
“We expect USD/NGN to eventually move lower towards 850 by year-end as the combination of tighter policy, as well as more attractive rates and FX levels deter incremental dollarization and perhaps attract some foreign capital,” JP Morgan asserted. :t_up:
https://www.arise.tv/naira-continues...rallel-market/
Nigeria's White Knight - Saudi Sovereign Fund
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beacon
Wale Edun, the Minister of Finance stated that FX liquidity will improve in the coming weeks. He further highlighted that discussions with sovereign wealth funds willing to invest and provide advances along with investments are in advance phases...
On November 10, the Saudi government had said it would provide a “substantial” deposit of FX to boost Nigeria’s forex liquidity, as a show of support for the ongoing forex reforms by the CBN. FMDQ said transactions opened at N813 to the dollar and closed at N780, up 22%, total value of trades recorded at the official window stood at $84.02 million.
https://www.thecable.ng/naira-apprec...fficial-market
Weakness brings opportunities
Quote:
Originally Posted by
beacon
Meanwhile, Naira has remained volatile and its continued depreciation has further eroded NAV, since I last posted. However, the discount (market price to NAV) has also been reducing.
Despite Naira slumping, investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about Nigeria’s economy.
Moody’s raised the country’s credit outlook to positive this month, citing Naira devaluation as one of the reasons for its positive outlook.
World Bank upped Nigeria's economy annual growth estimates to 3.5% pa between 2023-2026 from 3%, 0.5% more than if the reforms were not implemented.
Tinubu is gunning for 6% pa https://www.semafor.com/article/12/2...-to-record-low
More development expected
Nigerian Senate has approved ~90% of President Bola Tinubu’s ~$8 billion external borrowing plan covering 2022-2024.
The funds are earmarked for the development of critical areas such as infrastructure, agriculture, health, education, water supply, security, and employment, as well as financial management reforms.
https://nairametrics.com/2023/12/31/...-loan-request/
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and biggest economy, aims to join BRICS within the next two years, as stated by Minister of Foreign Affairs Yusuf Tuggar in November.
https://nairametrics.com/2023/12/29/...anuary-1-2024/
Cryptocurrency, old Naira notes, other protectionist Buhari’s policies reversed by Tinubu.
LIFTED BAN on cryptocurrency. Validity of the old currency extended indefinitely to prveent Naira scarcity, Lifted 8-year ban on 43 items (incl rice, cement and poultry, etc.) restricted from accessing fx from the official market. Buhari had also shut down land borders for years in order to protect the investment in the agricultural sector, particularly rice.
https://dailypost.ng/2023/12/31/cryp...sed-by-tinubu/
Tinubu goes after corruption
N44bn fraud: EFCC freezes N30bn moved from NSIPA accounts
Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, has tracked and frozen N30 billion of the N44 billion moved from the accounts of the National Social Investment Programme Agency, NSIPA. The development comes barely 24 hours after Halima Shehu, the embattled National Coordinator of NSIPA, was detained and arrested by EFCC after her suspension by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/04/n44b...sipa-accounts/
Meanwhile, Portharcourt refinery projected to come up in the first quarter of 2024 = 2 refineries in Nigeria, stopping FX drain on fuel imports
Tinubu goes after corruption 2
Tinubu suspends Minister Betta Edu over N585.189 scandal
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/08/tinu...oogle_vignette
Tinubu goes after corruption 3
Tinubu fires FCCPC, BPE bosses with immediate effect
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/08/tinu...ediate-effect/
Tinubu goes after corruption 4
$6bn fraud: EFCC arraigns ex-Minister of Power and Steel Development Agunloye
https://dailypost.ng/2024/01/10/6bn-...oogle_vignette
Naira trading finally gets some sunshine
Nigeria bringing fx trading back into public view, to narrow the gap between the official and unofficial rate of its naira currency.
The country’s financial crimes watchdog has given the Association of Bureaux de Change Operators of Nigeria the go-ahead to publicly post the buying and selling rates of the naira against the dollar online. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-street-market