Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER
US Calendar:
U.S. ISM services index rose to 50.9 in Sep, above median 50 vs 48.4 Aug
Bond Market:
U.S. 10-year TIPS sale awarded at 1.51%, firm cover 3.12, indirect bid 44%
Treasury yields rebounded after firm TIPS, options trade faded Friday rally
Stock Market:
...SPX 500 is extending its rebound today after a successful defense of the 31 August Close *1020 and the 50 MA *1016; the index penetrated the initial up target *1041 intraday, but finished on the weak side *1040
...its successful defense indicates that *1016 remains a short term floor, but the continuous weak finish in the major US indexes also indicates and strenghtens the double top view in the *1080/*1092/*1119 target range; only an unexpected Close below SPX 500 *1016 would negate this scenario and would confirm, that the expected 20% (+) sell-off during Q4 is already well on its way
Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
in contrast: a long-term BUY/HOLD Strategy with personal regards ("Ananda, I feel a bit mean featuring your posts like this, but maybe there is something we can all learn from it."
Regards, Phaedrus.) from no other than 'The Greatest Phaedrus' (see attachment)
Ichimoku Buy/Sell signals.
It can be difficult to discern Buy/Sell signals on an Ichimoku chart because of the multiplicity of plots. This method of directly marking these signals makes it easier to identify them and to see their relative strength. Evaluating their worth becomes very much easier.
The colour of the SP500 plot shows whether the basic Tenkan/Kijun setup is Bullish or Bearish. (This is controlled by whether the Red line on Arco's chart is above (Bullish) or below (Bearish) the Blue line).
Arrows mark Tenkan/Kijun crossovers, the source of Ichimoku buy/sell signals.
The colour of the arrow shows whether it is a Bullish crossover (blue) or a Bearish crossover (red).
The SIZE of the arrow indicates the relative strength of the signals, based on whether they occur when the plot is above, below or in the Kumo Cloud. (Support/Resistance zone)
The trend ribbon along the bottom of the chart shows us whether the Kumo (Support/Resistance Cloud) is Bullish (shaded Green on Arco's charts) or Bearish (shaded Red) This provides another means of further evaluating the strength of any given signal.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...IchiSP1016.gif
One big advantage of such a presentation is that it readily enables the backtesting of decades of data so that the historical profitability of Ichimoku trading signals can be directly compared with those of other systems. Backtesting also enables us to address those tricky questions such as "should weak signals be ignored?" "Should neutral signals be ignored?" "Is the Chikou
element of Ichimoku best dispensed with?" "Are 9 and 26 the optimum parameters for Tenkan/Kijun crossovers?" etc.
A couple of quick observations from the chart :- Strong signals are not necessarily followed by large movements, as at point (1). Weak signals sometimes are followed by large movements, as at point (2). I have seen it stated that "Eliminating the Chikou Span and ignoring weak crossovers
enhances the traditional Ichimoku method’s accuracy." This would mean that signals such as that at (2) would be ignored - a pity, yes?
Very interesting situation
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Stranger_Danger
we simply don't have the conditions needed for a new boom, and Government debt levels virtually require a new boom : the maths simply do not work.
Generally Govts win. They can be the largest market mover if they wish, and at the moment they have virtually uncontested control of the printing presses, and we know what they wish. They have a beggar's choice in the matter...
You quote Bill Gross Ananada. In his earlier contemplations this year, even he has stressed the need for the Govts to reflate assets. This is what I think will currently be played out regardless of the perception that PE is slightly high. Coming out of a recession, PEs are generally higher than historical norms. This candle is lit in a hurricane lamp. I think it will need a stronger tempest to test its longevity than the one I currently see brewing. However, I watch with keen interest....
For Rogers and Roubini fans
Quote:
Originally Posted by
JBmurc
Guys I follow that are very bearish on US-Jim rogers
Quote from this clip http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a8fc.G.WUIP8
Rogers agreed with Roubini that the dollar’s decline was encouraging investors to buy more commodities and assets...
“Right now, everybody including me is pessimistic on the U.S. dollar,” Rogers said. “That usually leads to a rally, whatever the asset is, and I would just suspect it’s going to happen again this time...
In contrast to Roubini, Rogers said the only bubble he sees in the Western world now is in U.S. bonds.