I get the feeling that Monday maybe not so hot...anyone care to comment.
Printable View
I get the feeling that Monday maybe not so hot...anyone care to comment.
I guarantee the sun will rise and the blackness will turn to light....the birds will be happily chirping to the new day as will all the other animals........................................... ... except for some insane humans running around yelling and screaming and jumping out of windows
Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday.
Ok, we're currently 26 mins in, no sign of the sun yet, this isn't a good start.
New Zealand should not fall as much as overseas markets due to the nature of our companies, but I am expecting a small fall none the less.
As for the ASX, well it will be all tears... wouldn't be surprised if it dropped below 5000, would provide a nice buying opportunity...
Just:
"keep calm, and trade on"
Is it October already, where did part of August and all of September go, I'm sure I have not been asleep that long.
I expect some sell off, but overall most companies are doing Ok on our bourse, so could be some "cheap" buys around in a few days to a week.
Sensible quote from bull
"this isn't the gfc for starters otherwise all stock categories would have negative returns and that isn't the case.
rotation is occurring and nz and us utilities and treasuries are proving safe havens
I guessing nz may fall 1% today hardly a panic"
it should be interesting....I have cash available for some dividend paying UK listed funds I have been wanting to top up on. Maybe I can also get a price ease on SKL and buy a few of those?
Gold stocks will probably do ok today :) I think NZ stocks in general will wait to see what happens Monday in the US.
Some soothing words from Janet Yellen is all it will take for a rebound. Avoid getting caught up in the temptation to churn I reckon.
That said this could be a good time to have a good look over your portfolio and do some carefully selected pruning of things that are neither growing nor paying decent dividends.
I would expect some selling pressure today but skewed away from utilities paying good dividends with relatively captive markets - generators and spark immediately come to mind
The High Frequency Trading guys are going to make a killing in this market... the sheep are already lining up. AIA is down and the market hasnt even started.
Looking at the way their algos work I think HFT will take the market lower than it would normally go and quicker than it normally would.
I see it as potential for topping up at the bottom of the cycle.
Unscientific poll of depth -- lopsided in favour of selling from what I have seen this morning. Many stocks have very shallow list of buyers, many with only cheeky low bids.
I HAVE GOT A GREEN ONE>>>!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TIL. well done.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.
Geeez some small trades depressing the sp. All reds for me too.
It'll be over soon enough, all red but hey nothing major
I didn't think it would fall quite this much, has still spooked me a bit...and clearly many other retail investors (doubt the institutions are up to much selling, just buying)
Not looking forward to Australia opening. Maybe they should take the day off until after Monday in USA ?
I understand historically what black monday was, but I don't understand what's going on? Why is it 'black monday'?
We have had an amazing 2 year plus run on the NZX ; nothing wrong with taking a few profits; taking the top off.
I had a good look over things last night and made some decisions, today I'm trimming my holdings heavily, however have been trimming over the last few months but should have been more aggressive. Some would say this strategy is erratic but i see it as an opportunity to preserve capital. All may be good, but you have to speculate what the US markets will do tonight, and if the drop heavily its going to be all go!!! Sell now and possibly buy good companies for a much lower price. From what i can see Chinese government is intervening heavily - stocks market, currency etc, and its not working - so what would it look like if they wern't intervening...
RFT on the ASX up 11%, only positive! will keep them!
spark positive :t_up: its about having the right stocks isn't it
I guess depends whether you are an optimist or a pessimist ... so far it looks like the drop is (at least on the NZX) based on quite light volume ... which means if you are trimming today, you run the risk of selling into the bottom. But than - the day is still young, so lets see how it proceeds.
I probably would wait a couple of days with the trimming for the relieve rally to kick in, but than - i might be wrong. DYOR
so far...its just mid to dark grey Monday:)
Ive always had this theory that having the weekend to ''get used''to it helps take the edge off.
I see futures are still in the red ,but are looking better so who knows----Sometimes Im amazed at how optimistic the US can be in shrugging off pretty bad news--As was alluded to in another thread,I agree that the worst thing is for stocks to settle into a consistent slow gradual fall. (death by strangulation)
Chinese A shares futures are falling like a stone. Down about 4-5% and market opens in 7 minutes.
China down 3.83%---lets see if the Chinese gov. deciding to pour pension funds into the stock market helps...
NZ market doing pretty well all things considered. Shanghai down 7.04% currently. S&P futures down just under 1% on top of Friday's decline.
This not a good sign..http://www.domain.com.au/news/weaker...150824-gj603y/
And this is not much better...http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...23-gj5zqf.html
Shanghai Index continues its collapse this morning
Attachment 7547
Hmm The ASB securities website has **** itself. Now that's not a good sign.:scared:
Not to good at all..http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34037122
Mkt declines in 2015 courtesy of Craigs various indices
NZ -5.3%
US -7.5%
UK -12.9%
Europe -12.7%
Aus -12.8%
"While the Nz mkt will not be immune to the moves we are seeing offshore we expect it to be less volatile"
Emg mkt -23.9%
NZD/USD -14,7%
WTI oil -34.6%
Please..no more..http://kingworldnews.com/3-new-incre...-greece-china/
Another 200 pts or so and ASX200 will be in a bear market.
Article from Craigs ' The correction has finally arrived." http://blog.craigsip.com/the-correction/
They believe the NZX50 may be more resilient than many other markets.
Woah, German DAX futures are pointing towards opening at 9670, thats 450 pts lower than Fridays close.
This could very well be capitulation day. S&P500 will have its first correction in years, buyers may come in late in the day Monday or on Tuesday... or they might not.
Our old friend Hussman reminded us last night that - Valuations are the main driver of long-term returns, but the main driver of market returns over shorter horizons is the attitude of investors toward risk],
And many are now a lot more risk adverse and won't be buying if down days are here for a while. Need keen buyers to start a turn around if we are indeed in a big correction.
Ties in with what Mr P said in those posts KW linked to.
Can't be a bad day ...pumpkin patch up a few %
The markets may well bounce sharply later today or later this week, but I will not invest anything at this stage. Severe technical damage has been done to almost every market around the globe. Most people have had no chance to sell out yet and those sellers will cap any bounce. Some markets are down 5% from their peaks; some are down 30%. I don't try to predict the next few months but if there are more severe sell-offs, followed by repeated failures to break the lows of those sell-offs, then I would start piling in 2-3 months for the usual end-of-year rally. But that's a big IF.
Glad was busy with other stuff on, didn't pay much attention to daily trade. Not a bad thing after all!
Not expecting any great moves tomorrow either, might be another lower day again. Brighter on wed perhaps??
Fph almost up. Must be a good reason. No doubt we will find out on Thursday.
http://www.cnbc.com/pre-markets/
China market now down nearly 9%. Dow Jones futures off nearly 500 points.
Just imagine what losing 9% of your portfolio's value in a single day would feel like...you'd have a bloody bad headache that's for sure :eek2:
Yes Roger, I don't think carnage is quite done yet...
This type of day has been due. If you have purchased solid stocks in solid companies for the long-term, preferably with a good dividend yield, then all should be well. I a going to be very interested in the overseas markets, again long term holdings of good companies should hold up well. It all seems to be cyclical and it makes for interesting news! I just hope that the NZD stays low and even tracks a bit lower. Days like today make me thankful that I am not a trader....I literally don't have the b**ls for it.
If this carries on, Rod Duke will be a shoe-in to get KMD at $1.80...lol.
Heck he might even get half the ASX for that......
I suspect he's starting to rue the day he ever dreamed up such a crazy takeover...especially seeing as he's already bought out a whole bunch of institutions for $1.80 cash. Consumer confidence plumbing multi year lows is hardly conducive for big spenders cutting loose at KMD stores helping make KMD directors dreams of restoring descent profitability a reality is it ! The independent valuation probably needs to be moved to the fiction section of the investment library about now I would have thought.
Though there's still tomorrow to come, that wasn't so bad, was it? My portfolio is only down less than 2.3% so I only got a few more shares for 2 stocks to add. And one of them is XRO :)
You want more!!! Plenty more coming ; this is just the beginning .Volatility ahead ,No exit for many days ; Steep gradient; Sharp turns ahead; Furry animals crossing road ; Slow down. Then again I'm hoping its a storm in a teacup but thats wishful methinks.
Those that "panicked" early on the ASX and sold when it was only down 2% didn't do too badly did they ! My best performing investment on the day is my dogs. They still wag their tails and make me happy :cool:
For those interested
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNEkMmAUEAACBa-.jpg:large
It ended up being turned into a new hybrid indicator. There's a thread on it somewhere and after Mr P sailed away on his yacht to shores afar I think it's bull who occasionally updates it if things change
I see if if can find it ... if bull (or might be blackcap or whoever) is reading let us know
It is Tracker that provides it w69
Cannot locate the last post after a quick look
So I presume you've sold up most KW and locked in protection for the rest and will cuddle your dogs tonight and all will be well :)
Yoda...
Mr P spent a long time refining his MSI the formulae below were tweeked..
I think the formula below was Trackers earlier refinements..I not sure...as Mr P bounced some ideas of refinement my way...
A simple version giving similar results to that of P's MSI (final version)
Need to apply the formula to Metastock software
Result1:= If(C>Mov(C,50,S),1,-1);
Result2:= If(RSI(C,50)>50,1,-1);
Result3:= If(Stoch(50,3)>50,1,-1);
Result4:= If(RMI(CLOSE,36,6)>50,1,-1);
Result5:= If(PDI(50)>MDI(50),1,-1);
Result6:= If(C>Mov(C,5,S),1,-1);
Result7:= If(RSI(C,5)>50,1,-1);
Result8:= If(Stoch(5,3)>50,1,-1);
Result9:= If(RMI(CLOSE,5,6)>50,1,-1);
Result10:= If(PDI(5)>MDI(5),1,-1);
(Result1+Result2+Result3+Result4+Result5+Result6+R esult7+Result8+Result9+Result10)/10;
Lol....literally a XX twist!
Its seems like its going to be Blacker Tuesday
Down opened down 1000 points (5%) still down around 2%, it doesn't look like its going into free fall... but it is pretty close... NZX 50 probably down another 1-2% today
The one poster I sorely miss. Very knowledgeable.
Thanks TJ. Closing 584 points down DOW after being as low as 1000 points 3100 stocks declining 100 lifting.Hilarious the closing bell with lots of clapping and cheering.
Probably lots of cheering as "its over" goes through traders minds... Its been a while since I've seen traders literally running around the trading floor on Wall Street. 1 Trillion wiped of Europe, probably a similar amount in the US (at least when it was down 7.5% at the start)
A couple of questions.
Is this a very sharp corrections in equities or something bigger?
There are many companies out there particularly in the energy & resources sector sitting on huge amounts of debt and eroding or even negative cashflow.
This is the sort of time when banks start making short term decisions to try & protect their own capital.
Do we see a raft of debt covenants triggered ?
China has been propping up world growth since 2008 and its seen as a very real problem that they are winding things back.
I think China is quite fixable, as in the listed enities with collapsing share prices on the China50 are all state owned.
My biggest area of concern is that debt particularly around the energy sector & the bank's exposure to it.
Mike Hosking says just a healthy correction
Whew ... no worries after all
Haha, yep because he's an expert... I heard he was up at 4am this morning with calving. ;-)
I'm sure he's related to Key as he has the same glib explanations for everything.
Nothing to see here, move along, its not really a problem, its only a little bit.
And the best of the lot. Who cares! LOL