POLL - who are you planning on voting for? THIS POLL IS NOW CLOSED.

This is anonymous, so if you are willing to share, I think it would be an interesting exercise.

I, personally would really like to get a genuine idea of how people intend to vote, but I am very aware that some people might be reluctant to share for obvious reasons. If people wish to add a comment, that is fine, but please do so respectfully. If there are any accusatory or inflammatory comments, or personal attacks based on how others have voted in this poll - they will be deleted.

I find the responses so far, quite interesting.

I am 90% sure I will vote National this election. There is a simple reason for it. I've lived in NZ for 35 years, basically all my adult life and have loved it. I have worked very hard all those years and NZ has been very good to me. My wife also immigrated to NZ around the same time (not together) and feels the same.
3 of our 4 children have left NZ this year as they don't like where this country is heading and have MUCH better opportunities elsewhere. Our youngest will no doubt head offshore when he finishes his apprenticeship in a couple of years.

I simply do not recognise this country anymore with the huge changes over the last few years, mostly for the worse in my view, and we are highly likely to leave NZ for good if there is not a change of Government and a serious change in direction. It would be against our will and all our plans. So we are voting for a change.

I get it. More than some here might actually realise.

I know this is poll a very small sample of opinion, but I am quite surprised to see how close National and ACT are polling. I fully expected them to be the top two choices, but I figured most here would be leaning towards National.

Maybe the election will actually bring a surprise or two?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by iceman

I am 90% sure I will vote National this election. There is a simple reason for it. I've lived in NZ for 35 years, basically all my adult life and have loved it. I have worked very hard all those years and NZ has been very good to me. My wife also immigrated to NZ around the same time (not together) and feels the same.
3 of our 4 children have left NZ this year as they don't like where this country is heading and have MUCH better opportunities elsewhere. Our youngest will no doubt head offshore when he finishes his apprenticeship in a couple of years.

I simply do not recognise this country anymore with the huge changes over the last few years, mostly for the worse in my view, and we are highly likely to leave NZ for good if there is not a change of Government and a serious change in direction. It would be against our will and all our plans. So we are voting for a change.

---

Interesting to see no Labour voter has dipped their toe in the pond yet. And its Act ahead of National followed closely by NZF.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

I get it. More than some here might actually realise.

I know this is poll a very small sample of opinion, but I am quite surprised to see how close National and ACT are polling. I fully expected them to be the top two choices, but I figured most here would be leaning towards National.

Maybe the election will actually bring a surprise or two?

---

Not too surprising that on a forum discussing capital markets, the top choice is ACT probably due to their more free-market policies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by ValueNZ

Not too surprising that on a forum discussing capital markets, the top choice is ACT probably due to their more free-market policies.

---

I would go further an say this forum has a larger proportion of libertarians

These are the results of the same week on nzissues.com site. They don't differ too much from this poll.

The Act Party Votes: 36 41.4%
The Green Party Votes: 2 2.3%
The Maori Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The Labour Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The National Party Votes: 26 29.9%
The New Conservatives Party Votes: 0 0.0%
New Zealand First Party Votes: 12 13.8%
NZ Loyal Votes: 1 1.1%
The Opportunities Party Votes: 0 0.0%
Democracy New Zealand Party Votes: 2 2.3%
Undecided Votes: 2 2.3%
Will not vote Votes: 4 4.6%

Very similar.

Out of interest, does anyone think ACT might throw up a surprise on election day, and take many more seats than has been predicted?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 777

These are the results of the same week on nzissues.com site. They don't differ too much from this poll.

The Act Party Votes: 36 41.4%
The Green Party Votes: 2 2.3%
The Maori Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The Labour Party Votes: 1 1.1%
The National Party Votes: 26 29.9%
The New Conservatives Party Votes: 0 0.0%
New Zealand First Party Votes: 12 13.8%
NZ Loyal Votes: 1 1.1%
The Opportunities Party Votes: 0 0.0%
Democracy New Zealand Party Votes: 2 2.3%
Undecided Votes: 2 2.3%
Will not vote Votes: 4 4.6%

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

Very similar.

Out of interest, does anyone think ACT might throw up a surprise on election day, and take many more seats than has been predicted?

---

I honestly don't know how political polls capture trends the way they do with their small sample sizes, but they seem to get it pretty much right. Have you even been phoned by a pollster? I may have been phoned once about 20 years ago. I find it all to be a strange and murky world, the world of polling.

I believe in the last election ACT's vote was estimated to be lower than they got on election night; they surprised to the upside. The result showed that National voters did see that ACT was a credible alternative to National, and I believe these voters that defected then will stick with ACT. Then I believe there will be another group of National voters who will be watching Luxon very closely as to how he performs in the debates and over the last weeks of the campaign. The onus is on him to convince them that he is not 'Labour-lite'. If he seems to be just offering a watered-down version of what Labour has been serving up, there will be plenty that defect to ACT. The final numbers on the right side of things are still in play, it is not done by a long chalk. Where National will be gaining alot of support that won't go over to ACT is from that 'squeezed middle': younger families with kids who have bought houses for big dollars and are hearing 1/ tax cuts 2/potentially higher house prices. These are the issues that matter to these people.

I have never been polled by phone, but I do online surveys for various panels and there have been quite a few political surveys lately.

Interestingly, there may also be farmers swinging from National to ACT this time. My son commented the other day, that he likes ACT and Seymour, so I wouldn't be surprised if his (usually National) vote goes to ACT this time round. He probably won't be the only farmer considering it.

I have been re-reading ACT and National's policies today, and one or two of ACT's may not be quite as bad as I previously thought. But there are still some that concern me. So I am still on the fence.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers

I honestly don't know how political polls capture trends the way they do with their small sample sizes, but they seem to get it pretty much right. Have you even been phoned by a pollster? I may have been phoned once about 20 years ago. I find it all to be a strange and murky world, the world of polling.

I believe in the last election ACT's vote was estimated to be lower than they got on election night; they surprised to the upside. The result showed that National voters did see that ACT was a credible alternative to National, and I believe these voters that defected then will stick with ACT. Then I believe there will be another group of National voters who will be watching Luxon very closely as to how he performs in the debates and over the last weeks of the campaign. The onus is on him to convince them that he is not 'Labour-lite'. If he seems to be just offering a watered-down version of what Labour has been serving up, there will be plenty that defect to ACT. The final numbers on the right side of things are still in play, it is not done by a long chalk. Where National will be gaining alot of support that won't go over to ACT is from that 'squeezed middle': younger families with kids who have bought houses for big dollars and are hearing 1/ tax cuts 2/potentially higher house prices. These are the issues that matter to these people.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

I have never been polled by phone, but I do online surveys for various panels and there have been quite a few political surveys lately.

Interestingly, there may also be farmers swinging from National to ACT this time. My son commented the other day, that he likes ACT and Seymour, so I wouldn't be surprised if his (usually National) vote goes to ACT this time round. He probably won't be the only farmer considering it.

I have been re-reading ACT and National's policies today, and one or two of ACT's may not be quite as bad as I previously thought. But there are still some that concern me. So I am still on the fence.

---

There's probably a lot of National voters - including Farmers - that used to be rock-solid National that now vote more tactically. This is probably just the ongoing evolution of MMP continuing: people for whom the 'First Past The Post' mentality took a long time to break with. Once you've voted for a different party as farmers did in 2020 (where they saw the right couldn't win based on the polls so voted Labour to keep Greens influence out of government as much as possible) it becomes something you can do again. That election was a watershed moment that broke that tight connection to National, but Labour will not retain those votes.

ACT on nearly 47% almost enough to govern alone. What a turn around. Hope not too many living in the share trader bubble are disappointed on election day, although ACT look to do well despite its policies.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Aaron

ACT on nearly 47% almost enough to govern alone. What a turn around. Hope not too many living in the share trader bubble are disappointed on election day, although ACT look to do well despite its policies.

---

Not sure where you see a problem with ACT’s policies. I see ACT as a necessary counter-weight to the ‘maori are genetically superior’ racial narrative of Te Pati Maori & the ‘climate hysteria leading to acts of political violence’ ethos of the Greens. There are certainly radicals and extremists in this election race, but David Seymour isn’t one of them.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers

Not sure where you see a problem with ACT’s policies. I see ACT as a necessary counter-weight to the ‘maori are genetically superior’ racial narrative of Te Pati Maori & the ‘climate hysteria leading to acts of political violence’ ethos of the Greens. There are certainly radicals and extremists in this election race, but David Seymour isn’t one of them.

---

I discussed my views on their tax policy on the ACT thread. Interesting that it is the social issues you raise rather than better economic management.

Newtons third law states that every for every action (force) in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction. Maybe this is true in politics as well.

Well, I'm not sure what you all think yet, but I thought it would be a walkover debate from Hipkins with his extensive debating experience, but it was far from that! I have to say I was quite impressed by Luxon's temperate debating style and staying on message, he never once got riled or looked down at his notes, during responses, and articulated his responses very clearly and on point.

Whether we agree with what either of them said, I'd have to give the leaders debate to Luxon, he stuck it to Labour and promoted the National policies very effectively. Quite surprising really, I didn't expect that. In the forthcoming leaders debates, I suspect it will get a bit mongrel as Labour realise Luxon is a lot more onto it than they might have expected.

Hipkins really does have to find a way to undermine National, so far it doesn't seem to be working. JMO, and interested in what you all thoughts about the leaders debate.

I watched it, but to be honest, I was disappointed in both of them. Didn't learn anything new from either of them, and neither of them managed to avoid the sideways jibes at the other.

I also watched this afternoon's Infrastructure debate - which was the exact opposite. As I posted elsewhere, Simon Court and James Shaw both spoke extremely well, and all five speakers, kept it civil and contributed a lot of information that I was unaware of. That debate was worth watching and far more impressive than the Leaders debate was. The infrastructure debate had teeth, while the Leaders debate was a superficial summary of everything we have already heard.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

Well, I'm not sure what you all think yet, but I thought it would be a walkover debate from Hipkins with his extensive debating experience, but it was far from that! I have to say I was quite impressed by Luxon's temperate debating style and staying on message, he never once got riled or looked down at his notes, during responses, and articulated his responses very clearly and on point.

Whether we agree with what either of them said, I'd have to give the leaders debate to Luxon, he stuck it to Labour and promoted the National policies very effectively. Quite surprising really, I didn't expect that. In the forthcoming leaders debates, I suspect it will get a bit mongrel as Labour realise Luxon is a lot more onto it than they might have expected.

Hipkins really does have to find a way to undermine National, so far it doesn't seem to be working. JMO, and interested in what you all thoughts about the leaders debate.

---

Luxon was very strong on the points he made, he hit back well when Chipkins went to attack him.
Chipkins would go hard at Luxon about something, then Luxon would say "well actually" and counter-punch him strongly.

I do think there will be right wing people out there - further right than me - who will be appalled at Luxon saying he thought Labour did an extremely good job with handling the first part of the COVID pandemic. I think they will be appalled with some of his positive comments regarding co-governance. I think there will be some appalled with him saying that he wants to provide free lunches in all schools. On the COVID front, there are some extremely angry people out there, and they do not want to hear one positive word about how the government handled the pandemic.

Personally I think Luxon spoke very well and will have re-assured a lot of people. Not the really hard right people though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by iceman

I am 90% sure I will vote National this election. There is a simple reason for it. I've lived in NZ for 35 years, basically all my adult life and have loved it. I have worked very hard all those years and NZ has been very good to me. My wife also immigrated to NZ around the same time (not together) and feels the same.
3 of our 4 children have left NZ this year as they don't like where this country is heading and have MUCH better opportunities elsewhere. Our youngest will no doubt head offshore when he finishes his apprenticeship in a couple of years.

I simply do not recognise this country anymore with the huge changes over the last few years, mostly for the worse in my view, and we are highly likely to leave NZ for good if there is not a change of Government and a serious change in direction. It would be against our will and all our plans. So we are voting for a change.

---

Having been probably to the left of you a few years ago, your post encapsulates my opinion now too, apart from leaving NZ. Unfortunately however I don’t think there will be the necessary sufficient change of direction, especially with regards to fiscal policy, even if National form the government.

Luxon has definitely improved with communicating policy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Aaron

I discussed my views on their tax policy on the ACT thread. Interesting that it is the social issues you raise rather than better economic management.

Newtons third law states that every for every action (force) in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction. Maybe this is true in politics as well.

---

A good observation that the issues raised are social issues rather than economic or political issues. I have noticed that the comments on these threads are more about identity politics than about politics itself or economic policies. We are engaged in culture wars which provides a distraction from the bigger issues of growing inequality. Culture wars are divisive and they provide a divide and rule strategy.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by moka

A good observation that the issues raised are social issues rather than economic or political issues. I have noticed that the comments on these threads are more about identity politics than about politics itself or economic policies. We are engaged in culture wars which provides a distraction from the bigger issues of growing inequality. Culture wars are divisive and they provide a divide and rule strategy.

---

Well you can't control what issues are important to other people.

A boring draw.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by davflaws

A boring draw.

---

Just watched it online and agree with you

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by davflaws

A boring draw.

---

To be expected really.
2 urbane white gentlemen.

Not Willie Jackson and say Chris Bishop.

Not a male vs a female like Helen Clark and Don Brash, where the male is disadvantaged, because if he rips into the female, many viewers will see him as a bully.

No time in the constraints of the forum to introduce new policy.

Maybe people need to reassess expectation, or tune into the wrestling instead.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by davflaws

A boring draw.

---

Unsurprisingly, Tova agrees with you, but 3/4 of voters disagree according to the NZ Herald Poll.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politic...K5H3SNDFL24WQ/

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Getty

To be expected really.
2 urbane white gentlemen.

Not Willie Jackson and say Chris Bishop.

Not a male vs a female like Helen Clark and Don Brash, where the male is disadvantaged, because if he rips into the female, many viewers will see him as a bully.

No time in the constraints of the forum to introduce new policy.

Maybe people need to reassess expectation, or tune into the wrestling instead.

---

Yeah, a lot of it is the format and the calibre of the questions as well:
‘When did you buy your first house?’
‘Have you ever felt unsafe?’
‘What’s something you admire about him?’

There’s not much scope to be anything other than boring. Come to think of it, the criticism is bizarre.

Mutch-Mackay was always interrupting or moving on, cutting down the time for responses from the two of then. It’s like it was all about her & when Tame came on and declared her the winner, perhaps that was the aim all along; TVNZ burnishing their ‘star’.

As some commentators said, a grudgingly technical win for Luxon. I think part of that is that the expectations were low for Luxon as his delivery in the past has been rambling & littered with bloopers. The fact that he didn't stuff up gives him the win.

Depressing state of affairs. Neither of the leaders are prepared to be bold and address many of the significant issues facing NZ.

One looks like a PM in waiting with conviction and energised to move NZ forward.

The other looks like he has lost 6 years making promises he has not delivered on but still wants NZers to believe in more promises from him!

And what is glaringly missing from is the total lack of debate about the dreadful state of race relations in NZ.

I would have answered Hipkins’ issue with coalitions about the fact that Ardern & he have the Maori cabal running circles around them in caucus. All in the cause of keeping them (the non Maori PMs) in power to obey their demands.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Daytr

As some commentators said, a grudgingly technical win for Luxon. I think part of that is that the expectations were low for Luxon as his delivery in the past has been rambling & littered with bloopers. The fact that he didn't stuff up gives him the win.

Depressing state of affairs. Neither of the leaders are prepared to be bold and address many of the significant issues facing NZ.

---

Well when their policies have mostly been announced, I don’t know how you’d have an expectation of them showing up and ‘being bold’. Did you expect them to show up and make up policy off the cuff?

No, but I expected a little more detail on exactly how they both intend to deliver their already announced policies. Neither of them have given me any confidence in their ability to actually deliver on what they have promised. It is all very well promising something, but I, for one, want some detail. Specific, clear, detail that shows they actually have a plan - not just a goal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers

Well when their policies have mostly been announced, I don’t know how you’d have an expectation of them showing up and ‘being bold’. Did you expect them to show up and make up policy off the cuff?

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

No, but I expected a little more detail on exactly how they both intend to deliver their already announced policies. Neither of them have given me any confidence in their ability to actually deliver on what they have promised. It is all very well promising something, but I, for one, want some detail. Specific, clear, detail that shows they actually have a plan - not just a goal.

---

The way the debate was run and moderated, being fast paced, cutting off the speakers mid sentence, etc, there was no chance for either of them to give any detail about anything. That diminished the value of the debate imo.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

The way the debate was run and moderated, being fast paced, cutting off the speakers mid sentence, etc, there was no chance for either of them to give any detail about anything. That diminished the value of the debate imo.

---

Exactly, it was poorly moderated. I noticed in the RNZ analysis this morning that she spoke almost as much as Hipkins

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-...by-the-numbers

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Balance

One looks like a PM in waiting with conviction and energised to move NZ forward.

The other looks like he has lost 6 years making promises he has not delivered on but still wants NZers to believe in more promises from him!

And what is glaringly missing from is the total lack of debate about the dreadful state of race relations in NZ.

I would have answered Hipkins’ issue with coalitions about the fact that Ardern & he have the Maori cabal running circles around them in caucus. All in the cause of keeping them (the non Maori PMs) in power to obey their demands.

---

Hipkins top ten words had "Maori" third with 24 mentions. Didn't even make top ten for Luxon (15 times, but then he did say "actually" 69 times lol)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

Very similar.

Out of interest, does anyone think ACT might throw up a surprise on election day, and take many more seats than has been predicted?

---

Actually - no, I don't. Just shows that the people frequenting this forum are clearly not representative for the NZ population.

I guess we have here a handful of investors (and its no surprise that most of them are conservative or liberitarian), we have a somewhat larger number of traders (and again its no surprise that most of them are conservative / liberitarian) and on top of that we have a small but loud crowd of conspiracy theorists thrown in for good measure who are often neither interested in investing nor in trading but just in finding another platform to push their alternative reality.

Plenty of these people (conspiracy theorists) did to ACT what once the NZ communist party did to the Greenies. They looked for a platform and undermined a once decent party to push their views.

No wonder, ACT features overall high on this poll ... and while I have no beef with most of ACT's policies (the same is true for most of Greens policies :) ; - I think its quite lucky that our mix of posters is not allowed to determine the outcome of the national election :) ;

I’d say there are exactly 2 posters in this site that would advocate what are known as ‘conspiracy theories’ (whether they are conspiracy theories, exaggerations of something which is part factual, or just fringe ideas with no element of ‘conspiracy’ to them….it all invariably gets lumped in together). One poster is from the Right, the other is clearly from the Left - so wouldn’t be voting for ACT.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Actually - no, I don't. Just shows that the people frequenting this forum are clearly not representative for the NZ population.

I guess we have here a handful of investors (and its no surprise that most of them are conservative or liberitarian), we have a somewhat larger number of traders (and again its no surprise that most of them are conservative / liberitarian) and on top of that we have a small but loud crowd of conspiracy theorists thrown in for good measure who are often neither interested in investing nor in trading but just in finding another platform to push their alternative reality.

Plenty of these people (conspiracy theorists) did to ACT what once the NZ communist party did to the Greenies. They looked for a platform and undermined a once decent party to push their views.

No wonder, ACT features overall high on this poll ... and while I have no beef with most of ACT's policies (the same is true for most of Greens policies :) ; - I think its quite lucky that our mix of posters is not allowed to determine the outcome of the national election :) ;

---

You call anyone who doesn't agree with you a "conspiracy theorist". Which says a lot more about you than it does about these alleged conspiracy theorists.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers

I’d say there are exactly 2 posters in this site that would advocate what are known as ‘conspiracy theories’ (whether they are conspiracy theories, exaggerations of something which is part factual, or just fringe ideas with no element of ‘conspiracy’ to them….it all invariably gets lumped in together). One poster is from the Right, the other is clearly from the Left - so wouldn’t be voting for ACT.

---

You might want to lift one of your blinkers to get the picture :) ; I could count at least one supporter of conspiracy theories for each of my fingers on this site - and I do have more than two fingers!

Just have a look through the Covid threads (if they are still around), through the Trump threads (dto) and throught the global warming threads ... and you will find plenty of posters supporting and further parotting consistently baseless and long debunked statements based on some talking faces they found on youtube.

But I guess one (wo-)mans conspiracy theory is another (wo-)mans religion ... but lets not go down this slope on this thread, shall we?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

You might want to lift one of your blinkers to get the picture :) ; I could count at least one supporter of conspiracy theories for each of my fingers on this site - and I do have more than two fingers!

Just have a look through the Covid threads (if they are still around), through the Trump threads (dto) and throught the global warming threads ... and you will find plenty of posters supporting and further parotting consistently baseless and long debunked statements based on some talking faces they found on youtube.

But I guess one (wo-)mans conspiracy theory is another (wo-)mans religion ... but lets not go down this slope on this thread, shall we?

---

There you go again!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

But I guess one (wo-)mans conspiracy theory is another (wo-)mans religion ... but lets not go down this slope on this thread, shall we?

---

This has got to be satire

Bryce Edwards raises an important point that policy can be decided by coalition parties after the election. Transparency is not embraced by everyone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYqqfR2tg8I
Post-1News Debate Analysis Show
Martyn 'Bomber' Bradbury moderates a panel of political pundits – Bryce Edwards, Fran O'Sullivan, Simon Wilson, Jordan Williams and Damien Grant – who give their instant reaction to tonight's 1News debate.

Bryce Edwards 44:09 …. and that's where I think New Zealand does MMP very badly. So, we continually have Coalition governments where we get policies that are negotiated after the election that we don't know about before. And so of course when National last got into the government they got charter schools with ACT we didn't hear anything about it in the election campaign before.

Damien Grant 49:23 how credible do you think David Seymour's threat or promise of holding of confidence but not supply and if he does that what is the practical implication of that.
Fran O’Sullivan I think it was a stupid move because he played a card he didn’t need to lay at this stage. I think what he has done is made people play safe and go back to National because no one wants to have a situation you know post-election where someone's playing around. He could have actually bottled that and used it after.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by moka

Bryce Edwards raises an important point that policy can be decided by coalition parties after the election. Transparency is not embraced by everyone.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYqqfR2tg8I
Post-1News Debate Analysis Show
Martyn 'Bomber' Bradbury moderates a panel of political pundits – Bryce Edwards, Fran O'Sullivan, Simon Wilson, Jordan Williams and Damien Grant – who give their instant reaction to tonight's 1News debate.

Bryce Edwards 44:09 …. and that's where I think New Zealand does MMP very badly. So, we continually have Coalition governments where we get policies that are negotiated after the election that we don't know about before. And so of course when National last got into the government they got charter schools with ACT we didn't hear anything about it in the election campaign before.

Damien Grant 49:23 how credible do you think David Seymour's threat or promise of holding of confidence but not supply and if he does that what is the practical implication of that.
Fran O’Sullivan I think it was a stupid move because he played a card he didn’t need to lay at this stage. I think what he has done is made people play safe and go back to National because no one wants to have a situation you know post-election where someone's playing around. He could have actually bottled that and used it after.

---

‘Bryce Edwards raises an important point that policy can be decided by coalition parties after the election. Transparency is not embraced by everyone.’

————

Yes, a terrifying scenario with lunatic radicals Te Pati Maori and the Greens now having considerable sway over the desperate Hipkins, who will do literally anything to keep his grip on power. He will still try to worm his way to a coalition government by finding some excuse to include Winston. The Left are a writhing basket of snakes.

Some more comments from the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYqqfR2tg8I
Post-1News Debate Analysis Show


Fran O’Sullivan 22:56 I think we're in a phase where people are past egalitarian values they actually want to get ahead.

Bryce Edwards 35:17 What most people are assuming is that National are going to go into a coalition with ACT and ACT will pull them to the right. I think you're absolutely correct about that but a lot of National insiders talk about how they don't want to be in a coalition with ACT and for that very reason they want to get New Zealand First into Coalition, they want to even talk to the Greens.

Damien Grant 38:22 I hope the Alliance does what ACT promising to do and get rid of all of the schools and turn them into partnership schools. I hope that they bring a market discipline to health and education.

Jordan Williams 54:12 I am concerned about this (co-governance.) I personally because I hate the idea of New Zealand being poor. I don't want to make the compromise for my kids but I consider the biggest threat to our long-term prosperity is dividing us and our rights based on race.

Simon Wilson 51:52 I get the ACT party emails every time when they say we've done a survey of our members they tell me 36 percent or thereabouts of our members say the biggest issue in this country is co-governance. And I can tell you I know from every other poll every other survey that with the exception of ACT, New Zealand First and the fringe parties outside on the right everybody else thinks the biggest issue is the cost of living.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by moka

Some more comments from the video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYqqfR2tg8I
Post-1News Debate Analysis Show


Fran O’Sullivan 22:56 I think we're in a phase where people are past egalitarian values they actually want to get ahead.

Bryce Edwards 35:17 What most people are assuming is that National are going to go into a coalition with ACT and ACT will pull them to the right. I think you're absolutely correct about that but a lot of National insiders talk about how they don't want to be in a coalition with ACT and for that very reason they want to get New Zealand First into Coalition, they want to even talk to the Greens.

Damien Grant 38:22 I hope the Alliance does what ACT promising to do and get rid of all of the schools and turn them into partnership schools. I hope that they bring a market discipline to health and education.

Jordan Williams 54:12 I am concerned about this (co-governance.) I personally because I hate the idea of New Zealand being poor. I don't want to make the compromise for my kids but I consider the biggest threat to our long-term prosperity is dividing us and our rights based on race.

Simon Wilson 51:52 I get the ACT party emails every time when they say we've done a survey of our members they tell me 36 percent or thereabouts of our members say the biggest issue in this country is co-governance. And I can tell you I know from every other poll every other survey that with the exception of ACT, New Zealand First and the fringe parties outside on the right everybody else thinks the biggest issue is the cost of living.

---

Wasn't the debate Labour v National leaders? Commentators and the media are obsessed with and the progressives (hello Simon Wilson) are sh!t scared of the public support ACT is getting. Personally i'm more interested in tonights "minor" party debate

Any mods here know how to change a poll to allow people to change their vote? I can’t see any way to add that option.

Are you going to change your vote after election day too.

There's the "still undecided" option.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

Any mods here know how to change a poll to allow people to change their vote? I can’t see any way to add that option.

---

Was that the single Labour vote?

TOP has made a comeback and is now doing better than NZF

Are you serious? Clearly you haven’t been paying attention if you are.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Azz

Was that the single Labour vote?

---

I put my vote under “undecided” but am now 99% sure of who I will vote for, so wanted to change it, to keep the results accurate. But there doesn’t seem to be any way to do that and I can’t see an option for me to edit the poll, to allow it.

Oh and btw, at some point down the track I will probably be disappointed with the party I vote for, but at this point, I have decided to suck it up and vote for the “best of a bad bunch” because I am far from happy with how things are going in this country right now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Panda-NZ-

Are you going to change your vote after election day too.

There's the "still undecided" option.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

Are you serious? Clearly you haven’t been paying attention if you are.

---

I wasn't implying it was you; you didn't state who wanted to change their vote.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Azz

Was that the single Labour vote?

---

You surely don't expect anyone to own up to that ?

As the creator of the poll I expect everyone here, to treat everyone else with respect, regardless of who they voted for in the poll OR who they will vote for in the election. The fact that you posted that question, is a sad reflection on ST and reinforces the fact that ST is not always a "safe place" for people. It should be.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

You surely don't expect anyone to own up to that ?

---

OK. It was just about me wishing to change my vote. I realised that including the last two options in the poll, meant there really needs to be an option to change one's vote. Not a big deal, but so far the results are interesting, so any changes between now and the election, would also be.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Azz

I wasn't implying it was you; you didn't state who wanted to change their vote.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

OK. It was just about me wishing to change my vote. I realised that including the last two options in the poll, meant there really needs to be an option to change one's vote. Not a big deal, but so far the results are interesting, so any changes between now and the election, would also be.

---

Polls such as these should really have an option to be chosen at poll creation to allow people to change their vote before a stated deadline. But I don't know how they work on this site.

That's why I'm asking. I don't recall seeing such an option when I created it. There was an option to only allow one vote per person, which I selected. There is no way to go back in and edit the actual poll - only the accompanying post.

Not a big deal.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Azz

Polls such as these should really have an option to be chosen at poll creation to allow people to change their vote before a stated deadline. But I don't know how they work on this site.

---

Close this poll and run another, do this weekly until election day.

Actually, that's not a dumb idea, although people might not want to bother voting every week. Good idea though.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by thegreatestben

Close this poll and run another, do this weekly until election day.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

Actually, that's not a dumb idea, although people might not want to bother voting every week. Good idea though.

---

Do it like the Irish: Vote early and Vote often :) ;

Discl: I do like the Irish ... and my excuse is that I heard above statement from a nice Irish guy :) ;

Anyway - I second the proposal, it would be interesting to see how the views change on the way to the election. Start a new poll every Saturday?

One thing, though ... I think we first need to get some more "voters" into the sample.
With the current group (41 when I last checked) the margin of error must be horrendous - something like +/- 15%, even if we assume that the sample is random (which it is not)

Ok. I will start a new poll on Saturday.

I agree that it would be good to get more people involved.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

Do it like the Irish: Vote early and Vote often :) ;

Discl: I do like the Irish ... and my excuse is that I heard above statement from a nice Irish guy :) ;

Anyway - I second the proposal, it would be interesting to see how the views change on the way to the election. Start a new poll every Saturday?

One thing, though ... I think we first need to get some more "voters" into the sample.
With the current group (41 when I last checked) the margin of error must be horrendous - something like +/- 15%, even if we assume that the sample is random (which it is not)

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

One thing, though ... I think we first need to get some more "voters" into the sample.
With the current group (41 when I last checked) the margin of error must be horrendous - something like +/- 15%, even if we assume that the sample is random (which it is not)

---

I think it's safe to say that Labour and the Greens will get more than 1 seat each.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Panda-NZ-

I think it's safe to say that Labour and the Greens will get more than 1 seat each.

---

That's a different question, though.

It is blatantly obvious that the sharetrader crowd is not representative for the general NZ population. No matter how good our poll might be (and at the moment it is not) - the best we might be able to do is predicting the polling behaviour of the average sharetrader member.

Nothing in this poll will be able to predict the outcome of the general election.

Agreed. but it is proving to be quite interesting.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

That's a different question, though.

It is blatantly obvious that the sharetrader crowd is not representative for the general NZ population. No matter how good our poll might be (and at the moment it is not) - the best we might be able to do is predicting the polling behaviour of the average sharetrader member.

Nothing in this poll will be able to predict the outcome of the general election.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

Actually, that's not a dumb idea, although people might not want to bother voting every week. Good idea though.

---

Thanks... I think?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

That's a different question, though.

It is blatantly obvious that the sharetrader crowd is not representative for the general NZ population. No matter how good our poll might be (and at the moment it is not) - the best we might be able to do is predicting the polling behaviour of the average sharetrader member.

Nothing in this poll will be able to predict the outcome of the general election.

---

Of course not. I don't know how many follow this site, but it must be a lot more than the 41 who participate in this vote.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

Of course not. I don't know how many follow this site, but it must be a lot more than the 41 who participate in this vote.

---

If you haven't seen it before, at the bottom of the main page and you are viewing the site on a non-mobile device you can see some stats around volumes.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/forum.php

This site looks like it was designed in the 1990's (with regular downtimes to match).

Even facebook polls are more scientific.

We work with what we have. I set it up for a bit of light entertainment, and to get an idea (for my own interest) how others here are planning on voting. It is not intended to be an accurate reflection of how the general population will vote. But it is presenting a good enough indication of how some ST posters will vote.

If you don’t want to participate you don’t have to. Likewise, if it is not “scientific” enough for you, feel free to scroll on.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Panda-NZ-

This site looks like it was designed in the 1990's (with regular downtimes to match).

Even facebook polls are more scientific.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Azz

Polls such as these should really have an option to be chosen at poll creation to allow people to change their vote before a stated deadline. But I don't know how they work on this site.

---

I don't agree. A poll is a snapshot at a particular time. I'd rather see another one started closer to the election to see if there was any significant change as we get nearer to the election.

The Poll on here probably gives an idea of all those who give a continental

What happens in the hinterlands of South Auckland .. unless the KFC buckets are flying in ? :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by iceman

I don't agree. A poll is a snapshot at a particular time. I'd rather see another one started closer to the election to see if there was any significant change as we get nearer to the election.

---

It's really to fix mistakes. Most polls in other software allow it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Panda-NZ-

This site looks like it was designed in the 1990's

---

I find it charming.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Panda-NZ-

This site looks like it was designed in the 1990's (with regular downtimes to match).

Even facebook polls are more scientific.

---

You're fading in and out - Dear Panda .. are you sure you're okay ? :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by nztx

You're fading in and out - Dear Panda .. are you sure you're okay ? :)

---

I'm worried for Panda-NZ too - civil and quasi-intelligent discourse has been emanating from the Panda-NZ handle for about two days now.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Panda-NZ-

This site looks like it was designed in the 1990's (with regular downtimes to match).

Even facebook polls are more scientific.

---

It is a very old version of vBulletin, way past its use by date. Current versions are cloud based mostly, so we're locked in a functional timewarp as there are no upgrades to it and new functionality is confined to the latest versions.

Quaint, but still effective, bascially just an old school bulletin board discussion group.

JAK, it looks like you have some support for re-running the poll closer to the election. I'll happily contribute my vote, though it will be the same.

As a snapshot of opinion here, I'd have to agree with BP, lets assume for a moment that members here have some money, more or less, and want to grow their wealth through investing and trading, so it's not surprising, to me at least, that the combined votes are +61% to NACT and a next to nothing for Labour. Even the minor parties, TOP, NZ First seem to get more attention from 'us' than Labour, who only want to take from us and give it to ... other people.

I like the site, I've been on other sites where the upgrades add too much stimuli and advertising and you have to view each post in isolation; here I can scroll up and down readily and the discussion flows better.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Logen Ninefingers

I like the site, I've been on other sites where the upgrades add too much stimuli and advertising and you have to view each post in isolation; here I can scroll up and down readily and the discussion flows better.

---

...and would flow even better if posters stuck to the logical option of replying as a footnote to a post (as I have done here) rather than adding it before the post they are commenting on (i.e. at the top) - as some do.

Back when I first started using the internet, and posting on forums, "top quoting" was the norm, so that is what I have always done. If it is done correctly, and quoted material is snipped as needed, and formatting correctly preserved) I don't see an issue with it.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by fungus pudding

...and would flow even better if posters stuck to the logical option of replying as a footnote to a post (as I have done here) rather than adding it before the post they are commenting on (i.e. at the top) - as some do.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by justakiwi

Back when I first started using the internet, and posting on forums, "top quoting" was the norm, so that is what I have always done. If it is done correctly, and quoted material is snipped as needed, and formatting correctly preserved) I don't see an issue with it.

---

....it's just that most people read from left to right and top to bottom.

Steven Joyce raises the question that I often ask myself which is where is the growth going to come from?

Or do we have to accept the truth that our expectations of growth are not sustainable.

I don’t have access to the article but the headline is enough.

Election 2023: Not so much a recession as an absence of growth - Steven Joyce

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/election-2023-not-so-much-a-recession-as-an-absence-growth-steven-joyce/YIO2L2AE75DEDOP3E6ANG2IJRI/

https://theportal.wiki/wiki/Embedded_Growth_Obligations

Embedded Growth Obligations (EGOs) are structures built into institutions in times of growth that assume growth will continue. An institution must therefore grow to meet its EGOs, or its leaders must lie about the presence of growth. This compromising of incentives causes institutions to tend towards exploitative or sociopathic behaviors, as their leaders face selective pressures to maintain the status quo.

Analysis: Forget the ‘squeezed middle’, what’s on offer for the squashed poor?
Every poll shows that the cost of living is front of voters’ minds.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-fiery-small-leaders-debate-reveals-act-and-nz-first-could-work-together/ACNB4RHB3JCKBJVYOXUHUOJJGY/

It’s a cost of living election - you’re probably sick of hearing it, but it’s true.
The cost of living challenge affects every household differently. While parties are squabbling over the “squeezed middle” where marginal voters lurk, very little is being promised to people on lower incomes who are the ones most punished by the cost of living crisis. Neither major party is offering much to people on low incomes.

As was suggested - new poll for the next seven days is here:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?12751-POLL-Election-poll-3-weeks-till-election

MODS: is someone able to close this poll - leave it up, but disable any further posting? I can't see a way to do it.

My prediction is a national-act coalition with a agreement with nz first. I will probably vote nz first maybe national but not act, greens or Maori party or labor as it turned racist and gone soft on crime.

Best to post on this week's new poll, which is here:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...-till-election

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Patrick11

My prediction is a national-act coalition with a agreement with nz first. I will probably vote nz first maybe national but not act, greens or Maori party or labor as it turned racist and gone soft on crime.

---