AQZ Alliance Aviation.

Shares on issue..................125,515,945
Market cap at $2,59............$325,088,888
eps....................................16.87cents
PE......................................15.35
dividend..............................13.1 cps
Flying 43,soon 44 Fokker aircraft: mining,tourism,charter,wet lease,and scheduled airline services.
Carrying very little debt.
Today's trading up date was a very pleasant surprise...EBT expected to be up 25% on last year.
Compare that with their PE.ie EBT growth rate 60% higher than their current PE.
I added to my holding this afternoon,at $2.595 per share.

Thanks, have been watching for a reentry after selling at/near the top a few months back(a logistical prob with two broking sites) and am back in now. S/P was quite weak for a while which made me overcautious in hindsight.

"Alliance is likely to achieve a Profit Before Tax for the year ending 30 June 2019 in excess of$32.5 million, which will be the best profit performance in the company 's 17 year history"

Fleet up to 44 fokkers and counting.

Thanks for your posts guys.

Have had this on my watch list for a long time. Some reason I have never taken a position in them. Maybe it's time for that to change!

Certainly seems to be going great guns at the moment, tough crowd to please over that side of the Tasman down 10c after that cracker of an announcement!

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Originally Posted by Benny1

Thanks for your posts guys.

Have had this on my watch list for a long time. Some reason I have never taken a position in them. Maybe it's time for that to change!

Certainly seems to be going great guns at the moment, tough crowd to please over that side of the Tasman down 10c after that cracker of an announcement!

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I am trying to buy,[or add to my holding] only shares that come out with an earnings upside surprise,which AQZ did.
Therefore the drop in share price rather surprised me.
The 25% increase in EBT is higher than the 19% the market is/was expecting.??
I expect AQZ will incease their divie too.
Benny1.Something to note.AQZ own their aircraft..None are leased,rented or otherwise.
Yes they rent,lease etc, some of their aircraft to others.

Hmm... I know traditional airlines do like to lease some of their fleets as during a downturn in the industry they can offer load any spare capacity back to the leasing companies... Not sure if they get some tax advantages as well.
The Fokkers while extremely suited to their operations are still getting on... They will not find any new homes once AQZ have finished with them.
There will come a day when they need to be replaced...
Very low debt and obviously a company flying high.
Will be watching with interest and may just have to have a little dab soon.

Yes the fleet is getting on.
However, AQZ have plenty of spare parts.In fact they make good money leasing and selling parts such as engines,black boxes etc.
The 16 or more they brought from Austrian Airlines a few years ago were in excellent condition.
So fleet replacement is still some time away.

The s/p as i mentioned has been under pressure for a while but im surprised it continues to be after the update.I guess it prob confirms a fund manager/Instu is selling out.

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

The s/p as i mentioned has been under pressure for a while but im surprised it continues to be after the update.I guess it prob confirms a fund manager/Instu is selling out.

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Maybe the market sees Qantas not increasing their 19.9% holding,although they have stated they intend to.?

I don't invest in the aviation sector on principle - aka, past bad experience! - but those who do should be encouraged by AQZ's annual report. Factual, informative and not a single expensive glossy photo to be had.

:)

Peter Lynch would LOVE this company :t_up:

Announcement today.
AQZ have brought 5 Fokker 100s, together with engine parts and tooling from Helvetic Airways AG.
And we have liftoff.!

Well some buyer moved the share price up 19 cents to $2.96 late this afternoon.
This new all time high, is a break out from previous ath of $2.81.

Thats more like it, seller exhausted and spring released(imo) 5 year high. PTB close behind.:scared::D Get Fokkered.

Brand new high good reason why
Download Document 231.44KB

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Brand new high good reason why
Download Document 231.44KB

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Good to see they are getting extensions to their existing contracts.

Have to think tho that at $3.00 they may be fully priced at the moment. Bugger was thinking about grabbing a few a couple of months ago....
Anyone know when the Aussie Commerce Commission will give their decision on the possible Qantas takeover ?

Don't know what to do about this company, great company with good and reasonably secure future prospects, about to announce their biggest ever profit...and big backer in the ring with Qantas owning 19.9%.. speculation at the moment that Cobham and Air North maybe on the market soon which could be of interest to Alliance

But the elephant in the room is Qantas, who may come in and scoop this up for themselves, though they I am sure would have to offer a reasonable premium to get current shareholders to consider selling.....so any investment now could be short lived...with a quick profit possible I suppose....

Maybe just better off watching on the sidelines....buy on any weakness and see what happens....
Or miss out the middle man and just buy Qantas shares??

Result will be announced on 8th August.

A must read article.Perhaps a kind poster will post the link.
Google; competition watchdog concerned with qantas's alliance investment.

AXX: Qantas stake in Alliance Airlines raises concerns

Response to ACCC notice regarding Qantas shareholding

AQZ: Qantas Statement on Alliance and ACCC

Competition watchdog concerned with Qantas's Alliance investmenthttps://australianaviation.com.au/.../competition-watchdog-concerned-with-qantas-allianc...

Result is out.
eps up 27% on last year.
Divie up 40% on last year.
Another fantastic result, and the outlook is very positive.

Well finally bought a few thousand of these on Friday afternoon. @ 2.49.
Sorry in advance for any fall in share price now I have jumped on board!

Think this is an interesting company that seems to have its business well understood and has been making the right moves for a while now.
Qantas as an shareholder is I think quite positive, although the ACCC may think otherwise, will be interesting to see what the final decision is from them.

Will watch with interest over the next little while, may pick up a few more as time goes on and will participate in the DRP.:t_up:

Excellent interim result out.
Strong outlook.

Yeah not bad eh Percy!
You in for some more?
I might grab a few...

No.I added to my holding on 20th June last year at $2.595.I have enough.
A lot of expenses,such as forward maintenance and aircraft.parts brought, have been included in this 1st six months.
This means the 2nd half will be a great deal more profitable,and the final divie will most probably be increased..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

No.I added to my holding on 20th June last year at $2.595.I have enough.
A lot of expenses,such as forward maintenance and aircraft.parts brought, have been included in this 1st six months.
This means the 2nd half will be a great deal more profitable,and the final divie will most probably be increased..

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Yeah I read that and thought the 2nd half could look quite promising.
This could be a nice divi payer for the next few years and the DRP makes it abit more attractive..

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Originally Posted by Benny1

Yeah I read that and thought the 2nd half could look quite promising.
This could be a nice divi payer for the next few years and the DRP makes it abit more attractive..

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Agreed........................................

Charter flight operator Alliance Aviation has expressed frustration at being left in limbo by a competition watchdog investigation into Qantas' investment in the group. Qantas paid about $60 million for a 20 per cent stake in the ASX-listed Alliance in February 2019 and said it wanted to build up a majority stake in Alliance, which this week revealed a record-high half-year profit....

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Originally Posted by percy

Charter flight operator Alliance Aviation has expressed frustration at being left in limbo by a competition watchdog investigation into Qantas' investment in the group. Qantas paid about $60 million for a 20 per cent stake in the ASX-listed Alliance in February 2019 and said it wanted to build up a majority stake in Alliance, which this week revealed a record-high half-year profit....

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Interesting... I wondered a while ago about how that was going... I know know the CCC were not favorable towards Qantas in it's draft findings that were published last year.
Alliance are in an interesting position at the moment with a lot going on in the Aussie aviation sector. Virgin has it's much published financial problems, REX announcing a profit downgrade and cut to it's divi recently and that other crowd possibly up for sale..( name escapes me at the moment, need a coffee!!).
Alliance are doing very well with their niche market and any fallout from Virgin and the others may open up new opportunities over the next couple of years.

I put in a very cheeky bid for a few more at a probably unrealistic price...will wait to see a few NZX half year results over the next week or so then decide where to put my penny's!
:eek2:

Agreed. I'm quite fond of businesses operating in tricky sectors where shrewd managers have found a profitable niche.

AQZ's exposure to Virgin is between $250,000 and $300,000.Not a great deal.
Virgin's administration should throw up a good few opportunities for AQZ.

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Originally Posted by percy

AQZ's exposure to Virgin is between $250,000 and $300,000.Not a great deal.
Virgin's administration should throw up a good few opportunities for AQZ.

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Got a few more yesterday!
May open up a few opportunities but don't know if they are in a position to capitalise too much..
They have 5 aircraft in storage I think at the moment so have a little bit of capacity there.
Haven't heard what was happening with Cobham Aviation which apparently was to be offered up for sale by its English parent company later last year?
Have got an order in for PTB as well.. Have been watching that one for quite a while now..

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Benny1

Got a few more yesterday!
May open up a few opportunities but don't know if they are in a position to capitalise too much..
They have 5 aircraft in storage I think at the moment so have a little bit of capacity there.
Haven't heard what was happening with Cobham Aviation which apparently was to be offered up for sale by its English parent company later last year?
Have got an order in for PTB as well.. Have been watching that one for quite a while now..

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I hold PTB.
Had them years ago,and recently paid top price to buy back in.lol.

Suppose you can't get it right everytime! Lol.
Pity I didn't jump into PTB at 27c last month! At that price they were a steal!
Will be happy to jump on board in the low 40's ..see how it goes..

Snap - also own AQZ and bought PTB recently. Not at the bottom (every small cap was a steal then) but they were- and are - still 40% below pre-covid levels, and that seemed cheap given acquisition benefits.
In terms of PTB outlook, 24.3 update very positive, management have an excellent track record of exceeding expectations, and they trully provide an essential service their customers can't cut back on.
Given NTA well above share price, growth, high cashflows and moderate debt they're one of my top picks atm (DYOR^^)

Accidental...

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Originally Posted by DarkHorse

Snap - also own AQZ and bought PTB recently. Not at the bottom (every small cap was a steal then) but they were- and are - still 40% below pre-covid levels, and that seemed cheap given acquisition benefits.
In terms of outlook, 24.3 update very positive, management have an excellent track record of exceeding expectations, and they trully provide an essential service their customers can't cut back on.
Given NTA well above share price, growth, high cashflows and moderate debt they're one of my top picks atm (DYOR^^)

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For what is worth I have experienced AQZ service first hand flying around industrial sites in Aus. Certainly appear an efficient outfit. Not surprised they are doing well.

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Originally Posted by ynot

For what is worth I have experienced AQZ service first hand flying around industrial sites in Aus. Certainly appear an efficient outfit. Not surprised they are doing well.

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Thanks for posting.
Good to hear.

Quite a bit of chatter on HC on Hugh Jones (former major shareholder in Airwork Holdings) building his shareholding in PTB over the last month. Hugh also a substantial security holder in AQZ.

As I posted on HC today, I’m concerned that the Covid-19 impacts on PTB are more negative than the gloss the directors used in their trading update released on 24 March.

l note Virgin has no Vokkers in their fleet.Of their 98 planes 80 are parked.
I guess plenty of opportunities coming AQZ's way.

Percy,

Virgin Australia Regional Airlines, with a seperate Aircraft Operating Certificate, has 5 A320’s and 9 F100’s in service plus a further 1 A320 and 5 F100’s parked.

https://www.planespotters.net/airlin...ralia-Regional

VARA has its origins in Skywest, acquired by Virgin back in 2013.

Virgin have a FIFO JV with AQZ whereby they cooperate on logistics, ground handling and spares and also since the start of the JV jointly bid on new charter work.

AQZ have been wet leasing aircraft to Virgin, operating some Queensland regional services and a week day Brisbane to Port Moresby return flight. If Virgin Mk II retrenches to main city pairs, agree there is plenty of scope for AQZ. They will however need to be selective, which I’ve no doubt given the caliber and experience of AQZ senior management they will be.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Southern Lad

Percy,

Virgin Australia Regional Airlines, with a seperate Aircraft Operating Certificate, has 5 A320’s and 9 F100’s in service plus a further 1 A320 and 5 F100’s parked.

https://www.planespotters.net/airlin...ralia-Regional

VARA has its origins in Skywest, acquired by Virgin back in 2013.

Virgin have a FIFO JV with AQZ whereby they cooperate on logistics, ground handling and spares and also since the start of the JV jointly bid on new charter work.

AQZ have been wet leasing aircraft to Virgin, operating some Queensland regional services and a week day Brisbane to Port Moresby return flight. If Virgin Mk II retrenches to main city pairs, agree there is plenty of scope for AQZ. They will however need to be selective, which I’ve no doubt given the caliber and experience of AQZ senior management they will be.

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Thank you for the link.Virgin showed no Fokkers.?
So 14 Fokkers.
With their debt down,strong balance, and their record of paying very modest amounts for their purchases ,I would think the Virgin administrators will be talking to AQZ.
Can not see them buying any aircraft except Fokkers from Virgin.
And I doubt any other airline would be buying any aircraft for a good long time..

Well I have now joined the ranks of owning both AQZ and PTB. Will put them in the bottom drawer for the next 5-10 years.
May buy a few more on any weakness over the next few months as well.
Just for the Trifecta I bought just a few Qantas as well!

Very wise. If you're looking for great upside, why would you gamble on Air NZ taking off, when you can buy into discounted companies with great prospects and businesses that are already flying???

Positive announcement from AQZ of a contract extension (and looks like an expansion) with South32 for ten years through to 2030.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/202005...hkbd8sst4x.pdf

Yep my thoughts exactly!

QAN is a little bit of a risk but only just tipping my toes in there. I see them coming out the other side of this a lot stronger than AIR with a well seasoned management team and long term plans plus of course Virgin now all but down and out in the Aussie market.
It's a boom or bust industry and the boom will return eventually.

I see the Warriors flew to Tamworth on one of their planes.

The only good thing about the NRL restarting is will be able to start betting against the Warriors again! :p

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Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob

I see the Warriors flew to Tamworth on one of their planes.

The only good thing about the NRL restarting is will be able to start betting against the Warriors again! :p

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You one for the short odds then Bob

What odds the Worriers won’t see the season out?

Haha - reminds me of esl students years ago when we discussed sport: "Teacher, do you support the Bruise or the Worriers?"

New trading update on the hotcopper website.. Not sure if I'm allowed to post on here?

Expecting to announce FY 20 profit before tax of $40M !

FIFO operations going bang busters and I like the last line of the update regarding " being in a position to take advantage of significant opportunities ".

90% aussie owned and 8% kiwi owned... which I found interesting too.

All bodes well for an interesting time ahead.

Disc: Happy holder.

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...idsId=02236759
Great news.

Really well managed company with good niche and cashflow.

ACCC probes Qantas purchase.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-...ction=business

AQZ raising capital.
So many opportunities.
So many new customers.
So many planes for them to buy.[at bargain prices]
And at $2.95...Incredible.
Please AQZ don't buy AIR NZ....lol.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Benny1

New trading update on the hotcopper website.. Not sure if I'm allowed to post on here?

Expecting to announce FY 20 profit before tax of $40M !

FIFO operations going bang busters and I like the last line of the update regarding " being in a position to take advantage of significant opportunities ".

90% aussie owned and 8% kiwi owned... which I found interesting too.

All bodes well for an interesting time ahead.

Disc: Happy holder.

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Interesting to see they are 8% kiwi owned. To bad they don't come this side of the ditch and shake things up but I'm guessing they are smarter than that.

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Originally Posted by ynot

Interesting to see they are 8% kiwi owned. To bad they don't come this side of the ditch and shake things up but I'm guessing they are smarter than that.

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Most of that 8% is owned by ex Air Works Hugh Jones.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

AQZ raising capital.
So many opportunities.
So many new customers.
So many planes for them to buy.[at bargain prices]
And at $2.95...Incredible.
Please AQZ don't buy AIR NZ....lol.

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Not much chance of that! They are way too smart!!!
Need to have a look at the investor presentation but from very first glance my gut reaction was I thought $2.95 sounded a little expensive?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

Most of that 8% is owned by ex Air Works Hugh Jones.

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Obviously he is a smart operator. He certainly made a success of Airwork. Coincidently I worked for Airwork in 79, pre Hugh.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ynot

Obviously he is a smart operator. He certainly made a success of Airwork. Coincidently I worked for Airwork in 79, pre Hugh.

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He also holds 10.15% of PTB.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Benny1

Not much chance of that! They are way too smart!!!
Need to have a look at the investor presentation but from very first glance my gut reaction was I thought $2.95 sounded a little expensive?

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Yes $2.95 is a hefty price.
However $122 mil will go a very very very long way in today's buyers market.https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1230139/

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

Yes $2.95 is a hefty price.
However $122 mil will go a very very very long way in today's buyers market.https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1230139/

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Huge sell off in airline stocks yesterday in NZ and Aussie and especially overnight in the US... This SPP portion of the capital raise may very well come at quite a discount to the $2.95 placement announced yesterday..
We may be well positioned as retail investors come our turn to stump up the cash 😊

Full A$91.9m raised through placement at A$2.95 per share without any need for underwriters to turn on their internet banking (other than to check the Underwriting Fee has been paid).

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/202006...c58fhw6swn.pdf

Share price held up well, however as US sell off was on fears of a second wave of COVID-19, then arguably is positive for the AQZ proposition.

SPP does provide opportunity for downside risk protection over the next few weeks due to issue price formula while enabling a free carry on upside. Limited risk of scaling given A$30m sought from just 1,500 shareholders (based on 2019 annual report statistics).

See SMH articles quoting AQZ CEO Lee Schofield:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...11-p551jh.html

Clearly they have an opportunity to take a greater part in the Virgin Australia Charter and Regional operations under the new owner. Administrators are working to a mid June conclusion of a deal with successful bidder.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Southern Lad

See SMH articles quoting AQZ CEO Lee Schofield:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...11-p551jh.html

Clearly they have an opportunity to take a greater part in the Virgin Australia Charter and Regional operations under the new owner. Administrators are working to a mid June conclusion of a deal with successful bidder.

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Thanks for the link.
Virgin Regional would be a perfect fit for AQZ.Can't see anyone else being either cashed up, or interested in it.

Hey just a quick question on the SPP if you don't mind guys.
Would I need an Aussie bank account?
Have been thinking about a transferwise account and not sure if this would be the way to go? Can set that up then can pay out of it for the SPP and any refund due to scaling can be returned easily to that account (though I doubt that would happen!) and any dividends from any ASX holding could be direct debited to that account in the future.
Just wondering if that's the best way to do it.

Benny, without your own AUD bank account, you would either need to buy an AUD Draft from your bank in NZ and post/courier it to the share register. What I have done with a few capital raises by ASX listed companies is to buy the AUD through my NZ sharebroker and they have been happy to direct credit into the required Australian bank account. Haven’t tried it, but my Westpac internet banking enables payments to be paid into Australian bank accounts, so that may also work. FX conversion rates have generally been sharper through my sharebroker than my trading bank and bank drafts usually come with an additional fee.

Dividend receipts are more problematic - I generally have signed up to DRP’s to save the hassle. Computershare Australia does offer a service to convert AUD dividends into NZD for a fee. Link Market Services Australia also offer a service by opening an account with OFX - see https://www.ofx.com/en-nz/press-room...k-partnership/

If you want to keep dividends in AUD rather than converting to NZD than probably best to set up an AUD account with one of the online platforms.

I deal with Craigs,for both NZ and Aussie,and have cash management accounts for both countries..
Very few Aussie companies still pay divies with cheques.Those I still receive I send into Craigs, who deposit into my cash management a/c.
Some companies try to pay direct credit into my NZ a/c.Always goes wrong ,so where possible it is better to take DRP [dividend reinvestment].Rights issue such as AQZ i just send the entitlement letter, or entitlement email, into Craigs who do the payment for me,taking the funds out of my [Aussie]cash
management account.

ps.Get straight onto it as usually your entitlement letter arrives just as the issue closes or is about to close.
Perhaps it is best to ring the share registry, and get them to email you your entitlement form.

With Australian companies I use email as the communication preference so all shareholder communication occurs electronically. This eliminates the snail mail delay.

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Originally Posted by Southern Lad

With Australian companies I use email as the communication preference so all shareholder communication occurs electronically. This eliminates the snail mail delay.

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The best option.

Thanks very much for your advice guys! Will get on to it!
I would seen Virgin Regional will be taken over or at least the most part of it by Alliance.
Great growth ahead for this little airline.. Not often you can say that in these current times!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Benny1

Hey just a quick question on the SPP if you don't mind guys.
Would I need an Aussie bank account?
Have been thinking about a transferwise account and not sure if this would be the way to go? Can set that up then can pay out of it for the SPP and any refund due to scaling can be returned easily to that account (though I doubt that would happen!) and any dividends from any ASX holding could be direct debited to that account in the future.
Just wondering if that's the best way to do it.

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A Transferwise AU [multi-currency] account strikes me as a perfectly good way of dealing with Australian share SPP and dividends.

I use them extensively for shuffling money around and paying bills in several currencies.

Cool thanks for that!
Will look into it tomorrow.

Sadly TransferWise are unable to make bpay payments which most ASX SPPs etc require. I asked last month.

Had to resort to ASB Securities which only charge $12 to send a Bpay it but if you get refunded it comes back as a cheque! That you then need to forward on to ASB. If it's a large amount from say a takeover they then can take a long time to clear it. You can lose access to your money for 1-2 months. Nightmare.

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1240039/

Looks a good aircraft.
Pleasing knowing they are still in production.
Option to buy a further 5 is interesting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1240039/

Looks a good aircraft.
Pleasing knowing they are still in production.
Option to buy a further 5 is interesting.

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Going to be a busy week Percy , !!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1240039/

Looks a good aircraft.
Pleasing knowing they are still in production.
Option to buy a further 5 is interesting.

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Was just going to post something on that !
I think it's a good move into some more modern aircraft, these will form the backbone of this airline for a number of years. Have seen the rise in the share price just recently and thought something must be brewing.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bus...c0453bf8806b17

I have found your E190's:

Formerly flown by Copa Airlines average age is 13.3 years.

That's them.
Pleasing that AQZ paid half the price they were a year ago.Buy one get one free.!!!
My aviation friend has flown on an E190.Great planes and another super cheap deal for AQZ.
With plenty of customers,cheap planes,cheap fuel,pilots and service crews available,AQZ's timing looks excellent.
Another Austrian Airlines sort of deal,which proved to be a game changer.

At around $8 mil each they appear to be a great deal. Roughly 50m USD when new ?

Click onto agree and go to their result presentation.
https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...idsId=02263542

https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistic...idsId=02263539
Cracker result.

Wow!! Massive lift in SP today. Anyone know whats behind it?

Would not get too excited.Yesterday they were trading around $3.50 to $3.55 before a late sale went through at $3.41.So today's close at $3.61 could be said to be up just 6 cents.
They seem to be trading lately between $3.45 and $3.65.

Ok, I was a bit hasty..thanks for that.

Share price closed at $3.90 on Friday with a reasonable volume being crossed. Trading update mid week has sparked some further buying interest.

There are plenty of shareholders who will be kicking themselves that they didn’t go all out on the SPP at $2.85 back in July. Shareholder take up was poor which meant that everyone could of easily got all of what they could have applied for.

Assuming markets remain firm, I’m expecting a further kicker to the share price once details of the Virgin regional flying deal are finalised and announced. There should be plenty of further profit growth available once the E190’s are delivered and flying. Cost of these additional aircraft already covered by capital raise.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...df02a206a39ff4

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Originally Posted by percy

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/ap...df02a206a39ff4

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Jees...more E190 's! They certainly are taking advantage of the current times.
Good luck to them and itwill be interesting to see what their plans are for these aircraft.
On a side one I see it is all go for REX with their entry into the mainline routes in Aussie starting with SYD to MEL.
They will be in for quite the fight with and QAN & a refreshed Virgin outfit.