NHC New Hope Coal

New Hope Coal (NHC)

Looking Good, and Heard Good news about Up Grade of Deposit and new Coal contracts ???

Kind Regards,


Robbo :)

Robbo

Big volume goimg through recently

2.6m gone through already today

On average the daily volume for the last month - 1.3m

But only 375k avaerge for the 52weeks

Hrmm

Chart looks good for a break out as well.

Think the recently declared divi has got people interested.

Maybe one for my Super Fund.

NEW HOPE COAL (NHC)

I wacked more than a few Dollars into NHC the other day Dave,

So do hope that WE are BOTH are right...

My Maths says that Margin of Safety is on our side.....Dave :);)

Below are the NUMBERS and an article from today, courtesy of the AFR. 28/9/05

New Hope promises good times will roll



Stephen Wisenthal 28 September 2005

Australian Financial Review

NEW HOPE COAL (ASX Code: NHC)

Full year 2005($m) 2004($m)

Sales 230.7 191.0

Pretax 536.5 108.0

Net (op) 96.7 41.0

Net 463.3 59.4

EPS 59.1 ¢ 7.4 ¢

Interim div 2.75 ¢p 0.75 ¢ f

Final div* 3 ¢ f 1.5 ¢ f

Special div* 13 ¢ f

Capital return** 10 ¢

Shares (yest) $1.38 +7 ¢

*Payable November 16 **Payable December/January, subject to tax ruling Coalminer New Hope will return to shareholders half the $366.7 million profit

from the sale of its Indonesian mines, keeping the rest for expansion projects in Queensland.

The miner, controlled by investment group Washington H Soul Pattinson, increased its net profit from $59.4 million a year earlier to $463.3 million for the 12 months ended July 31. Operating earnings more than doubled to $96.7 million as the company increased production in Australia and benefited from high coal prices.

This year's result was likely to be similar to last year's, said New Hope chairman Robert Millner, who also chairs Soul Pattinson. "Even though coal prices have suffered a little bit, most of our production is locked in until the end of March at the old higher prices," he said.

Interest on New Hope's cash hoard would make up for the loss of earnings from its stake in the PT Adaro mine in Indonesia, the largest open-cut coalmine in the southern hemisphere, which was sold for $US406 million in June to a consortium of Indonesian, Singaporean and US-based investors.

That sale has also proved a boon for New Hope executives.

New Hope issued more than 60 million shares last financial year through the exercise of 45 ¢ options granted before it was spun off from Soul Pattinson and listed on the Australian Stock Exchange two years ago.

Most of these options, deep in the money at New Hope's closing price of $1.38 yesterday, were exercised by executives of the Indonesian operation. They left when that business was sold, Mr Millner said.

The Australian operations made a profit of $54.6 million for 2004-05, up from $21.9 million a year earlier.

New Hope's first expansion project is at its biggest mine, New Acland, near Ipswich, west of Brisbane. It has ordered processing equipment to support annual production of 3.7 million tonnes by 2007, from 2.6 million last year.

It plans to lift New Acland's output of thermal coal, used to generate
electricity, to 5 million tonnes by the end of the decade.

It is also drilling prospects in the Bowen Basin in central Queensland, which appear to contain coking coal, the most valuable form of the fuel, which is used by steelmakers.

"Early indications are quite promising," Mr Millner said. "We've got some exciting prospects."

These deposits include Phillips Creek, near BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance's Saraji mine. New Hope has also been drilling at the Lenton project next to the Burton Downs coalmine, and has an exploration permit at Mackenzie, near Wesfarmers' Curragh coalmine.

It expected to start production from some of these deposits between 2009 and 2011, Mr Millner said.

The total development cost would be hundreds of millions of dollars, some of which would come from the Indonesian sale, supplemented by cash flow and borrowings, he said.

New Hope will pay 28.75 ¢ a share in dividends and capital return for 2004-05, giving a yield of 20.8 per cent at yesterday's close of $1.38, up 7 ¢.

It will pay a final dividend of 3 ¢ a share and a special dividend of 13 ¢.

Nice spotting Robbo.

Had a nice little run over the last week or so.

Director/Chairman happy to buy at current prices. As announced yesterday he picked up another $500K recently.

I'm holding in my super fund.

The majority share holder is W.H.Soul Pattinson as long as they keep their fingers out of NHC it will be fine I have holding in this stock ;)

cheers laurie

resurrecting an old thread...

New Hope Coal with a Mkt Cap of 3.72B just sold one of its coal deposits, New Saraji for $2.45 billion.

It has 800 odd million shares so the sale is worth $3 per share. The current price is around $4.60 so all its other projects are worth $1.60

What’s interesting is that the 690 million ton resource at New Saraji is broken up by 534 million tonnes inferred and 156 million tonnes indicated.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ASX%3ANHC
http://www.newhopecoal.com.au/home.aspx

A couple of points of difference to other coalers are:

• They export through the Port of Brisbane
• They own their own coal loader and berth near Fishermans Island at the mouth of the Brisbane River - smaller ships, but no queues!
• They are looking at various land development options for their old coal mines around Ipswich Qld.
• They own about 18% of Arrow Energy.

Interesting company.

I'll borrow the following summary from Huntley's....

NHC mines thermal coal primarily from Acland, 140km west of Brisbane, a mid-low cost, long life mine. Smaller contributions are from Jeebropilly and Oakleigh near Ipswich where land redevelopment offers potential post closure earnings. Group production is 5Mt a year, 75% export, 25% domestic. Exports are via NHC’s 100% owned port in Brisbane. Growth is from Acland expansion. Coal seam gas via Arrow (AOE) and coal to liquids may drive long term growth. Sale of the New Saraji project for $2.45bn in September 2008 sees the balance sheet in immaculate condition with about $2.6bn net cash. Management is focused on cash generation, dividends and long term investment. Single commodity, infrastructure and mining risk require consideration.

In this crazy market, market cap of approx $2.65b equals cash at bank. They will have to pay tax on the profit from the New Saraji sale, but what price is the market putting on a 4+ mt thermal coal mine (with plans to go to 10mt), a 100% company owned port facility, land development options in Ipswich, coal to liquids feasibility study and 18% of Arrow Energy, not to mentions a couple of advanced thermal/coking coal exploration projects??

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

I'll borrow the following summary from Huntley's....

NHC mines thermal coal primarily from Acland, 140km west of Brisbane, a mid-low cost, long life mine. Smaller contributions are from Jeebropilly and Oakleigh near Ipswich where land redevelopment offers potential post closure earnings. Group production is 5Mt a year, 75% export, 25% domestic. Exports are via NHC’s 100% owned port in Brisbane. Growth is from Acland expansion. Coal seam gas via Arrow (AOE) and coal to liquids may drive long term growth. Sale of the New Saraji project for $2.45bn in September 2008 sees the balance sheet in immaculate condition with about $2.6bn net cash. Management is focused on cash generation, dividends and long term investment. Single commodity, infrastructure and mining risk require consideration.

In this crazy market, market cap of approx $2.65b equals cash at bank. They will have to pay tax on the profit from the New Saraji sale, but what price is the market putting on a 4+ mt thermal coal mine (with plans to go to 10mt), a 100% company owned port facility, land development options in Ipswich, coal to liquids feasibility study and 18% of Arrow Energy, not to mentions a couple of advanced thermal/coking coal exploration projects??

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HC

Thanks for unearthing this little gem ;)

BTW, I see the portfolio has had a shake up!

A lower risk strategy of course would be to buy majority shareholder Soul Patts ( SOL ).

This is near the top of my watchlist for the Great Recovery.

:cool:

I bought into NHC this week. Very low risk coal miner in my view. I've done more buying in the past 2 days than I have for the past 18 months!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mark100

I bought into NHC this week. Very low risk coal miner in my view. I've done more buying in the past 2 days than I have for the past 18 months!

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G'day Mark

Yep, it look's to be a complete 'no brainer' at these prices, but in this market, you might get it 25% cheaper this time next week :eek:.

Some similarities to PPP when you look at the cash backing per share, but substantially more robust.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

G'day Mark

Yep, it look's to be a complete 'no brainer' at these prices, but in this market, you might get it 25% cheaper this time next week :eek:.

Some similarities to PPP when you look at the cash backing per share, but substantially more robust.

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NHC - AGM presentation (check out page 19 re cash balance :eek:)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=205563

NHC - Quarterly

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=205561

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=205566

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

NHC - AGM presentation (check out page 19 re cash balance :eek:)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=205563

NHC - Quarterly

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=205561

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=205566

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NHC - New MD... The market likes the news :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=205639

Back in NHC today after selling out in the early Nov spike. For a stock where 90% of the market cap is cash and land it sure is volatile. At current prices it's back at the level where it's being valued at no more than cash and land backing.

Will look to sell near $3.70 or buy more sub $3

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mark100

Back in NHC today after selling out in the early Nov spike. For a stock where 90% of the market cap is cash and land it sure is volatile. At current prices it's back at the level where it's being valued at no more than cash and land backing.

Will look to sell near $3.70 or buy more sub $3

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Directors buying is always a good sign ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=206353

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=206354

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

Directors buying is always a good sign ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=206353

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=206354

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Millner's have deep pockets Shasta.

If you're interested in NHC, also keep an eye on stake held, and commentary by, their LIC playthings Milton Corp (MLT), Choiseul Investments (CHO) and Brickworks Investments (BKI).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

Millner's have deep pockets Shasta.

If you're interested in NHC, also keep an eye on stake held, and commentary by, their LIC playthings Milton Corp (MLT), Choiseul Investments (CHO) and Brickworks Investments (BKI).

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Will do, also throw SOL into there i suppose?

I see the family has grown ;)

Bought IPL a few dats ago, and only got around to adding it to by disclosue list today.

Correct Shasta, SOL is the main shareholder. Lots of incestuous relationships between the various companies....including BKW as I mentioned to you previously.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

Bought IPL a few dats ago, and only got around to adding it to by disclosue list today.

Correct Shasta, SOL is the main shareholder. Lots of incestuous relationships between the various companies....including BKW as I mentioned to you previously.

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Helps when you have your own port facilities in QLD :cool:
Coal trains to ports 'used inefficiently'


MANY Australian mining companies operate inefficiently when it comes to transporting coal to the coast by rail, McKinsey & Co analysts say.

John Lydon, principal of McKinsey Australia's operations practice based in Sydney, said that in certain parts of the Hunter Valley, for instance, fewer than 20 trains could do the work of the 30-odd trains now being used.

"The total mine-rail-port system is less efficient due to multiple players having conflicting incentives, which creates difficulty in co-ordinating the best outcome for the system as a whole," he said.

"There's also been a historic lack of real incentive for service providers to improve throughput."

He explained that because in certain parts of the Hunter Valley producers varied between small operations and major global mining companies, train allocation suffered and the absence of overall co-ordination greatly reduced efficiency.

"The Hunter Valley Coal Chain has no powers to order train allocation or establish commercial incentives in a way that would optimise the system," he said.

A complication in NSW is that the state Government operates the rail system and, although it has committed itself to a $150 million program of eliminating rail bottlenecks between the mines and the Port Waratah Coal Loader at Newcastle, the rail network is not the miners' to organise.

While the mine-owned railways in Western Australia were more efficient, he said, the prospect of having third parties gain access to them could threaten to reduce efficiency by 15-20 per cent.

"Say you have a situation at the moment where as many as three trains are waiting for one to come through. If they're all owned by the same company, it can be worked out, but if they are owned by other companies, there are a number of extra issues that emerge," he said.

Mr Lydon's colleague Jimmy Hexter, a director in McKinsey's Beijing office, said that the medium-term outlook for Australia's resource trade with China was more bullish than bearish, despite last week's negative short-term numbers coming out of China.

McKinsey analysis said that between now and 2025 China's urban population would grow from 650 million now to about 1billion, Mr Hexter said. "That's 20 million people moving to the cities per year, or the entire population of Australia. They will need homes, schools, hospitals and a wide range of other infrastructure."

For example, he said, China was expected to build more than 100 new airports in that period. "China has $US2 trillion in reserves and relatively little debt.

"Given that the biggest problem facing China is the difference in the standard of living between rural and urban households, this is going to happen and the infrastructure it will demand (will) be huge."

Australian project managers had more to learn from China and India than they had previously imagined, the two McKinsey men said, thanks to the simpler approach taken in those countries.

"Even if you strip out the difference in labour costs and safety standards, you'll find that they would still have some important advantages over Australian projects because of the way they execute projects," Mr Hexter said.

He said that Chinese investors often had their own money in projects and therefore eliminated as much unnecessary spending as possible, while in India site managers were often invested with powers to make quick decisions on their own account rather than waiting for decisions to be made higher up the chain,

This often optimised projects at the site level that enabled savings in both time and cost, he said.

Mr Lydon said Australian clients, like many companies around the world, had become more receptive to the notion of introducing change since the financial crisis began.

The McKinsey experts said the big challenge facing managements was to try to maintain a flexible and forward-looking approach through the crisis.

Back from a few days turtle watching.....

NHC own the port facilities at Fishermans Island, but Queensland Rail provide the transportation.

Load out near New Ackland is fairly basic..the coal is trucked a couple of k to the rail line, where is is pretty much dumped beside the tracks. End loader puts it on the trains from there. No conveyors or overhead discharge into wagons fom hopper bins etc....maybe this will come with the mine's expansion.

I also understand that a the segment of the line down the Toowoomba Range is capacity limited at this stage. The trains are also comparatively small compared to their central Queensland cousins.

To get to FI, the rail transverses through Brisbane's suburbs, so there may be restraints (now or in the future) because of conflicting demand by the surburban passenger sytem and maybe even noise issues. Over my side of town, morning and afternoon peak times are pretty much given over to the suburban network, and I would imagine that would be the same over that side of town as well.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

Back from a few days turtle watching.....

NHC own the port facilities at Fishermans Island, but Queensland Rail provide the transportation.

Load out near New Ackland is fairly basic..the coal is trucked a couple of k to the rail line, where is is pretty much dumped beside the tracks. End loader puts it on the trains from there. No conveyors or overhead discharge into wagons fom hopper bins etc....maybe this will come with the mine's expansion.

I also understand that a the segment of the line down the Toowoomba Range is capacity limited at this stage. The trains are also comparatively small compared to their central Queensland cousins.

To get to FI, the rail transverses through Brisbane's suburbs, so there may be restraints (now or in the future) because of conflicting demand by the surburban passenger sytem and maybe even noise issues. Over my side of town, morning and afternoon peak times are pretty much given over to the suburban network, and I would imagine that would be the same over that side of town as well.

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Perhaps NHC can spend some of it's surplus $A1b to set up it's own infrastructure network & rail to it's own port facilities?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

Perhaps NHC can spend some of it's surplus $A1b to set up it's own infrastructure network & rail to it's own port facilities?

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I sincerely hope you're joking Shasta.......it would take BILLIONS to duplicate. Really, as long as you can accept that there are some limitations between the mine and the port, why would you bother?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

I sincerely hope you're joking Shasta.......it would take BILLIONS to duplicate. Really, as long as you can accept that there are some limitations between the mine and the port, why would you bother?

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Call it a polite enquiry rather than a serious business case!

I still believe NHC are in a better postion than most, with there own port facilities & some surplus cash earning interest over the next 11 months

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

Call it a polite enquiry rather than a serious business case!

I still believe NHC are in a better postion than most, with there own port facilities & some surplus cash earning interest over the next 11 months

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NHC - ASX issues a slap with a wet bus ticket!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=206675

A bit of overkill really, do they have nothing better to do?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

NHC - ASX issues a slap with a wet bus ticket!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=206675

A bit of overkill really, do they have nothing better to do?

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NHC - Awards contract to Sedgman for the New Acland Coal Mine #2

NHC ramping up production & has plenty of $$$ lying around to fund it.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=207208

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

NHC - Awards contract to Sedgman for the New Acland Coal Mine #2

NHC ramping up production & has plenty of $$$ lying around to fund it.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=207208

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NHC - Conversion of management options (note the reasonable price!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=207491

250,000 Mgmt options converted @ just over $3.38 :cool:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

NHC - Conversion of management options (note the reasonable price!)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=207491

250,000 Mgmt options converted @ just over $3.38 :cool:

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NHC - Resignation of CFO

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=207584

Normally i'd be more than concerned but after 27 years of faithful service, i wish him well in his new ventures...

NHC - Quarterly Out

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=207903

NHC must be watching the AOE anns with glee...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

NHC - Quarterly Out

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=207903

NHC must be watching the AOE anns with glee...

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NHC - Presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=208422

Market likes the presentation & reassurance re previous profit guidance.

Nice having the $2.5b odd in the bank too ;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

NHC - Presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news...E=ASX&N=208422

Market likes the presentation & reassurance re previous profit guidance.

Nice having the $2.5b odd in the bank too ;)

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Anyone else looking at NHC?

Nice chart ;)

http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/ima...TIMA2=20&s=NHC

Too expensive for me now Shasta, sold out last week.

It has good cash backing per share, but in my view that only makes it a good buy in the low $3's as the cash backing per share after they pay tax will be around $2.65. Things like land holdings and the value of their AOE holding usually get discounted a bit and then most coal businesses right now aren't getting valued on a very high multiple. I come up with a sum of parts around $3.40.

Maybe they have a good acquisition lined up but can't see at this stage how that has created around $750m of shareholder value in the past couple of weeks.

this is the sort of stock im looking for in this market.
nice floor on the shareprice underpinned by cash and assets
good trading range/volatility for some quick trades

if it dipped under 3 dollars, youd be safe in the knowledge that you had some hard assets to back your investment.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mark100

Too expensive for me now Shasta, sold out last week.

It has good cash backing per share, but in my view that only makes it a good buy in the low $3's as the cash backing per share after they pay tax will be around $2.65. Things like land holdings and the value of their AOE holding usually get discounted a bit and then most coal businesses right now aren't getting valued on a very high multiple. I come up with a sum of parts around $3.40.

Maybe they have a good acquisition lined up but can't see at this stage how that has created around $750m of shareholder value in the past couple of weeks.

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I keep thinking NHC is solid as, but once they pay out the $725m tax & $600m dividend, it will be harder to sustain it's current $A3b+ market cap.

When you work out what cash they will have left, + its non coal assets, i agree it's coal assets haven't risen > $500m in a week or so!

I'd be happy buying around $3.30

Another interesting move by NHC. This is their second CSG acquisition, after previously grabbing a sizable slice of Arrow Energy.

In turn, Planet has some interests in a Geothermal play.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=00986324

Some speculation from brokers (RBS and Ord Minnett) that NHC may announce a special dividend with it results later this month from the proceeds of its AOE sale. They'll get around $440 post tax so if they decided to pay out around $300m of that (they already have $1.4b in the bank) there is a potential 35c FF dividend. I hold few leading up to the results

Some interesting pics of the flood damage to the rail to Brisbane in the attached report.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=01164047

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

Some interesting pics of the flood damage to the rail to Brisbane in the attached report.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics...idsId=01164047

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Alot to like about NHC despite its sheer size, upside is in the QBH expansion, CTL projects etc, & i read they are the 5th largest coal producer on the ASX (source "The Australian", from memory?)

I see around 90% of there production goes overseas now, every quarter this figure seems to increase.

I know from my time @ Kiwirail the lead in times for rail & components from China were quite long, & thats alot of damage to be sorted out

A small gripe, but the quarterly report, presentation to analysts, media release etc all DO NOT show the cash balances, you need to be able to solve the Divinci code to understand the half year report!

How do they get around the reporting of cash balances/omission of cashflow statement for ASX reporting standards?

Shasta

How do you see the NEC takeover adding to the bottom line!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

I know from my time @ Kiwirail the lead in times for rail & components from China were quite long, & thats alot of damage to be sorted out

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Don't think the parts should be a problem, as the concrete sleepers and rail are made in Oz. QR usually had stashes of spare sleepers, rail and ballast around the place. Wonder if such 'luxuries' will be allowed with private ownership of the freight services?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by lawrence

Shasta

How do you see the NEC takeover adding to the bottom line!

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Despite the large premium NHC are paying, $1.85 looks cheap to me & NHC already have 88.63%, & given the independent valuation range of $2.70 & upwards, if I were an NEC shareholder i'd be wanting $3 a share minimum, if theres "value to be unlocked" in NEC why are there Directors rolling over so soon?

The figure suggests a base case production of 500,000t from NEC, or just under 10% of NHC's production.

So this is what NHC are paying a premium for...

Northern Energy is currently transitioning from being a coal developer to a coal producer. It has hard coking and thermal coal development and exploration projects in an advanced stage and is one of the few Australian junior coal companies with marketable Reserves.

The company has a 5 year production target of +7Mtpa by 2015 with its first shipment scheduled as soon as mid 2012 from the Colton Mine in Maryborough.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Huang Chung

Don't think the parts should be a problem, as the concrete sleepers and rail are made in Oz. QR usually had stashes of spare sleepers, rail and ballast around the place. Wonder if such 'luxuries' will be allowed with private ownership of the freight services?

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I know most of the bigger machines used for track work are either bought 2nd hand from Japan, or leased from Queensland, so they must have a fairly decent size fleet in the state.

Concrete sleepers are about the only thing thats made in NZ used by Kiwirail, China & South Korea do the fit outs & assembly, Germany does the engines...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by shasta

Despite the large premium NHC are paying, $1.85 looks cheap to me & NHC already have 88.63%, & given the independent valuation range of $2.70 & upwards, if I were an NEC shareholder i'd be wanting $3 a share minimum, if theres "value to be unlocked" in NEC why are there Directors rolling over so soon?

The figure suggests a base case production of 500,000t from NEC, or just under 10% of NHC's production.

So this is what NHC are paying a premium for...

Northern Energy is currently transitioning from being a coal developer to a coal producer. It has hard coking and thermal coal development and exploration projects in an advanced stage and is one of the few Australian junior coal companies with marketable Reserves.

The company has a 5 year production target of +7Mtpa by 2015 with its first shipment scheduled as soon as mid 2012 from the Colton Mine in Maryborough.

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See NEC thread:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...&highlight=nec

NHC only got just over 80% of NEC so it appears for the time being it will remain listed. I sold into NHC's offer but I reckon we will see a mop up bid by NHC in the future once the necessary time has passed.
NHC got NEC for a steal. The NEC board basically run out of options and had to roll over. They had an alternate bidding consortium lined up which fell through at the last minute. NHC's bid was closing in a matter of days and there was a real risk the share price would fall hard if the NHC bid expired with no alternate bid

What is the necessary time to elapse before another offer can be made?

Is XINGANG RESOURCES HONG KONG LTD likely to sell into a higher offer or hold for strategic reasons?

6 months. Robert Milner from New Hope was on lateline business last night www.abc.net.au/lateline/business and the topic was touched on briefly.

He said its 6 months before they can do anything and then he mentioned the 3% pa creep provision.

He also mentioned NEC would need funds soon and a rights issue was possible. This could be a scare tatic of course to keep the share price in check. The reality is NHC don't want NEC listed anymore.

The main reason Xingang is there is for the coal. They already have an offtake agreement and with NHC the controlling shareholder by a large margin I expect they would sell at the right price, provided they get to keep the off-take agreement.

I sold all my NEC into the takeover but intend to keep a close eye on NEC over the next few months and take a position when we get closer to the 6 month expiry

Interesting what he said about the bottom line when and if the Carbon Tax comes in!

hmm $5.44 heading north something is either chasing it or a tap is leaking in head office!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mark100

6 months. Robert Milner from New Hope was on lateline business last night www.abc.net.au/lateline/business and the topic was touched on briefly.

He said its 6 months before they can do anything and then he mentioned the 3% pa creep provision.

He also mentioned NEC would need funds soon and a rights issue was possible. This could be a scare tatic of course to keep the share price in check. The reality is NHC don't want NEC listed anymore.

The main reason Xingang is there is for the coal. They already have an offtake agreement and with NHC the controlling shareholder by a large margin I expect they would sell at the right price, provided they get to keep the off-take agreement.

I sold all my NEC into the takeover but intend to keep a close eye on NEC over the next few months and take a position when we get closer to the 6 month expiry

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And there is the mop up bid. No conditions at $2. Picking up stock lately at $1.50 has been very easy to do unfortunately due to the dodgy market I was only holding half of my intended holding, the bid coming around a month earlier than I expected.

The bid is free from all conditions and is final. Still a question market whether Xingang will accept hence NEC could feasibly still remain listed after this bid and we could get a chance to do this all over again

Looks like Xingang have just sold. A 16.3m trade just went through, being the size of their holding

I am glad someone got in. I was looking at NEC for that opportunity, especially when they hit $1.50ish.

So, Xingang hold on for just over 8% return in 5 months. Is that worth it? Probably in this investment climate it's not a bad annualised return.

Wow what luck. NHC is one of the few stocks I'm still trading at the moment. Got back in yesterday arvo based on all this takeover chatter. Annoucement this morning of a formal sale process. No guarantees of course. Also entered SOL this morning. SOL was already trading at a big discount to NTA. They own 59% of NHC. And also you could try BKW who own 43% of SOL.

As a previous NEC shareholder however I can't help but feel a bit ripped off. NEC has added to the strategic appeal of NHC by providing more options around future production growth. NHC got NEC for a steal (around $250m) but in research I've seen on NHC, the NEC assets add over $500m to NHC's valuation.

hmm this is strange NHC was Robert Millner flagship project?

Millner is primarily an investor, he is not a miner and has always said he will sell any asset if the price is right. SOL will not sell its NHC stake cheap. They will want top dollar which puts into doubt whether a sale will actually happen. Citi analyst reckons $10 is required. Given they own their own port in Brisbane and don't have to pay demurrage fees you can see the strategic value.

For someone like Xstrata any delays in the building of the Southern missing rail link (or Wiggins Is terminal) can be overcome (up to a point) while the Wandoan mine is ramping up as they can send the coal south via Dalby/Toowoomba to NHC's port

Good points Mark wonder if they divest their DTE holding or add it to the pot?

And to think NHC drop yesterday. Nice pick up Mark. NHC, with MC of $5 bil at $6 would be a big swallow.

I might pick up some BKI for some exposure. They own 13.7% of NHC. I should wait for their NTA announcement before buying. I think the rise in NHC would offset BHP and their banks holdings.

17 cent Divi plus 13 cent special Divi but fully franked.
S/P re $.2.93 prior.
This is for the HALF year report.

Obviously, the full year result is going to be a boomer.
Thermal coal prices still elevated, but off their peaks from a few weeks ago

Another great dividend ex date 24th OCT 56c ..I'm hoping my COAL spec AHQ trade will get a bounce so I can shift across to NHC and catch that Dividend pre ex date...

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Originally Posted by JBmurc

Another great dividend ex date 24th OCT 56c ..I'm hoping my COAL spec AHQ trade will get a bounce so I can shift across to NHC and catch that Dividend pre ex date...

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Almost a $1 div for 2022 from a $3 sp trade in March. Thermal coal prices still at ATH. Raking in cash. Still a massive Div Yield at $6 sp

Quote:

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Originally Posted by JBmurc

Another great dividend ex date 24th OCT 56c ..I'm hoping my COAL spec AHQ trade will get a bounce so I can shift across to NHC and catch that Dividend pre ex date...

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Juicy ehh,although I estimate we in NZ get re half that Divi in our accounts due to not being able to use the franking credits etc.Still very happy atp ,my entry being $1.65.

.A long tail for coal is essential to support the Green energy build up.

40c interim div

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

40c interim div

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Great JT. Well done.

But what will you tell Jacinda?

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Originally Posted by JBmurc

Another great dividend ex date 24th OCT 56c ..I'm hoping my COAL spec AHQ trade will get a bounce so I can shift across to NHC and catch that Dividend pre ex date...

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Did you sell AHQ?

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Originally Posted by clearasmud

Did you sell AHQ?

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JB is pretty active on H/C on the YAL thread.Im sure he will be back soon(I hope)

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

JB is pretty active on H/C on the YAL thread.Im sure he will be back soon(I hope)

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Thanks for that, cool.
Most of us who are in are losing at the moment

Quote:

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Originally Posted by clearasmud

Did you sell AHQ?

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Yes realised the TAX loss ... sold last of my AHQ mid to low 2c range .... worst trade for some time ...really at present I wish I just avoided COAL stocks as I've seem to have the worst timing and picking ... at present Holding BCB coking coal ... and YAL 3rd largest Aussie Producer ... hoping this two will make back my AHQ losses this year ..and change my mind on the sector ... hindsight should have keeped to my Gold sector exposure ... Energy trade is woeful at present

Any thoughts on SMR - Stanmore Resources?
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ued-coal-stock

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Originally Posted by DarkHorse

Any thoughts on SMR - Stanmore Resources?
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ued-coal-stock

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Just your namesake, this one will also be a winner....

Quite a jump in NHC,8% WHC 5.5 % and Yal today 4.4% after drifting down a while.Coal price barely lifting today??

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Quite a jump in NHC,8% WHC 5.5 % and Yal today 4.4% after drifting down a while.Coal price barely lifting today??

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oversold bounce was always going happen one of these days .... Thermal Coal needs a northern hemp winter asap ... even Met Coal is continuing to fall ... I'm out of coal stocks lost far too many dollars being late to the party ... maybe later in the year ...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Quite a jump in NHC,8% WHC 5.5 % and Yal today 4.4% after drifting down a while.Coal price barely lifting today??

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Not sure but one of the punters on HC suggested it could be because NHC has redeemed all the outstanding convertible notes.

WHC also jumped on rumours that it was out of the running for BHP's coal assets.

Disclosure: not held