https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00152/radius-care-applies-to-list-on-nzx.htm
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364583
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https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00152/radius-care-applies-to-list-on-nzx.htm
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364583
expect some funds to sold in other retirement stocks to buy some of this
With no new shares issued at IPO it looks more like an exit vehicle for insiders. If they’re not selling there’ll be no liquidity. Hard to see how they can be excited about new opportunities with no new capital.
Somethings not right with this, my bs senses are on overload
isnt it a bit odd having no new securities offered to the public on a new listing. ???
With the current NZX rules a two-stage listing makes sense in relation to costs: 1st a clean and tidy compliance listing (no need for a back-door listing with the extra costs and complications that brings - TIL/Bethunes as an example) and 2nd, some months after listing, a fundraising offer with the market having by then established a price range.
If I'm right Radius Care is setting a pattern that we will see repeated by others in future.
It's official. Ticker RAD.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364583
Investor Presentation and Listing Profile now released:
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/b...sentation.html
Presentation here
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...740/337081.pdf
Certainly an intriguing setup...
That person bidding $1.04 is certainly keen.
Quite a lower degree of bricks & mortar with this one, if I'm not mistaken
Probably deserves consideration as a truer health provider rather than Rest Homes owner & Property developer like others .. ;)
Pro forma underlying EBITDA $21.3m $23.0m $23.7m
Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA $8.2m $10.2m $11.0m
Implied EV (including lease liabilities) / pro forma
underlying EBITDA 16.5x 15.2x 14.7x
Implied EV / Pre NZ IFRS 16 pro forma underlying EBITDA 20.3x 16.3x 15.1x
AFFO per Share – cents 1.78 1.67 1.99
Dividend per Share – cents at 50% of AFFO for FY2021 0.83 1.00
*Implied dividend yield – cash dividend declared 1.04% 1.25%
*Implied dividend yield – gross dividend declared 1.44% 1.73%
First question is what is AFFO - I really don't have the time today to get into this but the metrics do not appear compelling at first glance.
What I have learned over many years of investing in this sector is there is very little money in providing care services...the money is in the property development and especially the property churn.
$1.10 High Bid now even ;)
Sellers seem to have all gone on holiday..
$1.20 High Bid -- Earth to any Seller out there ;)
Holy Molly -- three Dollar 10 - boys & girls, but only for the eager must have want to buy ;)
Beagle ..AFFO
From other document -
AFFO, which is a cash proxy used by Radius Care to determine the level of dividend it can support.
And is defined as -
available funds from operations, which is calculated from Pre-NZ IFRS 16 Pro forma Underlying NPAT by removing pre-NZ IFRS 16 depreciation and amortisation and instead including maintenance capital expenditure
Mr/Ms 3 dollar 10 Seller disappear
Mr/Ms 1 dollar 31 penny eager buyer arrive ;)
Number traded so far = Zero ;)
I don't even get why the put it on the sharemarket if there is no trading. How can one buy if if no one is selling?? I shall watch from my chair..
Thanks mate so if I am not mistaken nowhere in those metrics is the most commonly used, (for this sector) underlying eps and they are making up a new term to describe their distributable profit.
My opinion - There is very little money in providing late stage care.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...739/337080.pdf
On a really, really quick look it appears:-
Net assets are 22.9m = 13 cps. At 80 cents they are saying the shares are worth 6.15 times NTA
EPS = approx 2.38 cps At 80 cents they are saying a fair forward PE = 33.6 (Higher than RYM) I am basing eps on 2 x half year net profit to 30 September 2020.
The directors seem to have taken great lengths not to disclose eps and especially underlying eps...but to be fair I haven't been prepared to invest much time in this.
Dividend yield of about 1.6%
I think somewhere around 20-25 cents based on earnings or 13 cents based on NTA is fair value. To be quite blunt about it I think the directors seem to be in fantasy land.
I am sure there's many other aspects to this but they are so far out of whack with where I see fair value I am not going to waste any more time on this.
People should note that interest bearing debt of $24.8m is higher than net assets of $22.9m. Highly leveraged, more than six times NTA and on a higher PE than RYM...thanks for the opportunity but I wouldn't touch this with a 40 foot barge pole.
Sellers are likely to come from this block, see page 11 of the Listing Profile:
6 The other shareholders in Radius Care comprise (a) shareholders that received Shares as a result of a series of in-specie distributions of Shares undertaken by funds managed by Knox Investment Partners prior to listing, (b) Radius Care staff members and (c) Harmos Horton Lusk Limited, which was issued 250,000 Shares in consideration for the provision of $200,000 worth of legal services to Radius Care in connection with the listing.
Looking at the Companies Office records these shares haven't as yet been transferred to those parties, so not yet available to be put on the market.
One hundred & forty nine pennies on offer at close & still no Seller showing any real interest .. ;)
must be a number of happy campers at RAD not wanting to part with a slice of the action .. ;)
Have I missed something, RAD is not showing up on ASB Securities? Apologies if a dumb question.
cant help you Baa_Baa - not with ASB here
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/rad
It is showing up if you enter NZX in the stock exchange box
Too rich for me to bid on. I estimate a fair price to be $0.20.
Where are the full Financials for past years with RAD ?
It's not as if there aren't any Financials produced for their EOY as they have been going for some time
It's an abismally hopeless showing on NZX's part to even allow RAD to be listed without past Financials
(unaudited ; adjusted or otherwise) being published IMO
Furthermore RAD have duty to keep the market informed & provision of past Financial Information
(not the scant coverage filed) would appear to be an integral on their even becoming listed
Agreed. On a very brief look there was no way to determine what their growth rate in underlying eps had been.
Being vastly a care model I've assumed their growth rate is negligible.
I reiterate my warning that this is being floated on metrics that are well and truly out of whack with other listed companies in this sector such as ARV and OCA and as an unproven business that's dramatically smaller than the incumbent comparative companies mentioned I believe their metrics should be at a material discount to those of ARV and OCA.
To price this anything above 25 cents is scandalous in my opinion and begs the question on whether the directors received quality advice on this float or whether they have massively overrated their own abilities.
This is quite bizarre. The Board only a few weeks ago agreed the equity was worth c. $0.80 and they are near $1.70 today
Low interest rates are really starting to see rampant speculation in markets....look at AirBNB and Doordash more than doubling on opening day and there are many others doing the same in the US that are less well known.
The only way I can explain it is there's a percentage of people who are speculators, (not investors) and to them fundamental's mean nothing.
Might be quite interesting to see who is selling and who is buying.........not implying anything at all!!
Have heard from a reliable source that staff with 10 years service are to be allocated 1200 shares each.If true well done.
Cannot find any financial information of RAD. Anybody has some ideas about its fundamental?
The nearest I could find a while back was in NZX published Listing profile for RAD:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...739/337080.pdf
Key Financials (P&L & Balance Sheet Summary) are on page 56
Supported by Investor Presentation:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...740/337081.pdf
No full audited / unaudited Financial Accounts appear to have been filed or provided so far
Is this a Relisting of the early 2000's Radius Float ?
No new shares were offered on recent listing on NZX
As a public service announcement, I'd agree with Beagle's view and good luck to anyone holding. Its going to take a lot of profitability growth to make this worth the current share price of $1.09 (mkt cap $192m).
From the NZX listing document
2018 net profit $3.8m
2019 net profit $4.2m
2020 net profit (loss) ($2.8)
2020 six months to Sep 2020 net profit $2.1m
There were 176,495,000 shares on issue so a circa $4m net surplus is only 2.3c/share.
AFFCO in 2021 is forecast at $2.9 - $3.5m and dividends are 50-70% of this for a dividend payout of about $1.8m (1c/share).
They don't appear to have provided any 2022 forecasts (a warning in itself).
While high EBITDA figures superficially look appealing, this company looks hard to value at even $100m.
Disc don't hold and won't hold at this sort of price.
Maybe RAD will be goer one day ..maybe
Going to build things
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/370227
Share placement offer today. Shares to be priced at no more than 60 cents.
Closes today.
I am not brave enough for this one.
Be interesting if book build only gets 50 cents …….last share price 90 cents
At 50c thats re 33% discount to the post raise diluted s/p, 75.5c. No mention of big management holders applying that i could see
OFFER: RAD: OFFER: RAD: Radius announces up to $50m equity raising to fund growth.
Why would anyone pay 4.6 times NTA when you can buy anything else in this sector with a proven track record on FAR more compelling fundamental's ? (e.g. OCA and ARV at around 1.25 - 1.4 times NTA)
The companies laser focus on reporting EBITDA numbers could easily be misconstrued by naďve investors as being real earnings.
I do love a good stag... but no thanks.
too expensive, a long way to drop to fair value
Dipped me toe not expecting a multibagger ,but I reckon here be a profit there .
Quote Wiremu "With the current NZX rules a two-stage listing makes sense in relation to costs: 1st a clean and tidy compliance listing (no need for a back-door listing with the extra costs and complications that brings - TIL/Bethunes as an example) and 2nd, some months after listing, a fundraising offer with the market having by then established a price range.
If I'm right Radius Care is setting a pattern that we will see repeated by others in future."
Spot on guys.We wont know if management who owned practically all of the shares on listing are participating in this, you'd think they would if they backed the company , esp @ 50c and to avoid big dilution, we will see. I opted out of the opp.
It will be interesting to see what happens when trading is resumed :eek2:
Good luck mate,you could prove us all wrong,although there may well be a few lurkers here dissing it whilst contacting Craig's etc and hoovering up all they can.It is the newest and lowest quality stock in its sector yet to prove itself.
[QUOTE=ralph;894342]It will be interesting to see what happens when trading is resumed :eek2:[/QUOT. E]
Well despite the large discount to the closing price, this cap raise will increase assets per share. As at 31 March 2021, RAD had net assets of $24.093m with 176.465m shares on issue. Net assets pre raise were $0.137
Assuming the full $50m is achieved at 50c, this will become $74.1m of net assets with 276.465m shares on issue. Net assets have increased to $0.278. Issue costs will then take this down a little bit.
Disc don't hold
[QUOTE=ralph;894342]It will be interesting to see what happens when trading is resumed :eek2:[/QUOT. E]
Well despite the large discount to the closing price, this cap raise will increase assets per share. As at 31 March 2021, RAD had net assets of $24.093m with 176.465m shares on issue. Net assets pre raise were $0.137
Assuming the full $50m is achieved at 50c, this will become $74.1m of net assets with 276.465m shares on issue. Net assets have increased to $0.278. Issue costs will then take this down a little bit.
Disc don't hold
Pb ratio
oca 1.26
arv 1.45
sum 2.25
rym 2.375
rad over 4 after new share issued
why buying a leasehold at a super high price, rather than holding freeholds at lower prices.
Well fully subscribed at 52c.....
Radius Care announces fully subscribed $30m placement. - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange
The Placement price represents a discount of 42.0% to the 5-day VWAP of $0.8969 (up to and including 7 July 2021) and a discount to the theoretical post raise price of $0.7660 of 32.1% based on the last close price of $0.90 on Wednesday, 7 July 2021 and the Placement price of $0.52 (and assuming a raise of $50 million).
Hard on any one who brought RAD shares at over 90 cents.
Good outcome for them -- over subscribed and book build at 52 cents
Note the invitation to non holders - you can buy on market up to the 20th so you can participate in the retails offer ....and get a bargain?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...357/349982.pdf
Duplicate....
Shares only down 5 cps to 85 cents. All I can say is there must be a lot of people who are investing without understanding that the metrics are far more demanding for RAD than companies in this sector with a vastly longer and more successful track record.
I don't understand why there are still bids in the mid 80s today, when anyone who wanted shares could have taken part in the placement knowing they would pay a maximum of $0.60.
(I took part in the placement via Sharesies.)
The smaller a company the more likelihood of inefficient market pricing.
I also hold OCA and ARV, my RAD purchase was funded by profits from those two and it will occupy a much smaller position in my portfolio. I have only put in one third of what I plan for my final RAD investment via the placement as I expected the price to drop rapidly to the placement price and perhaps lower, but if that doesn't happen then I will just sit on what I got via the placement. Also expect more capital raisings in the not to distant future, so I don't see and great hurry to buy in and will just build up to my final investment level if and when the opportunities come.
Attachment 12728
different with other retirement villages
Agree the market is not yet pricing this share efficiently ( perhaps both before, as well as after, the capital raise ). Still, an entry price for a new holder at $0.52 doesn't seem too high risk, and daily liquidity should incrementally improve with the increased issue. I expect the next month or so will tell a tale as to the fundamental price level, given finalisation is still dependent on the SGM later this month and settlement of the allocations via the institutional book build and subsequently the SPP for existing holders, and those who buy on-market by 20 July and are eligible for the SPP which may be one contributing reason for the current price level.
New shares being hocked off today
Down to 66 cents so far
In your opinion Balance, do you see the SP dropping back below 0.52c with such a large amount of extra shares released. I would have expected a little push higher like we saw yesterday, followed by a consolidation back down to the release price 0.52 (and maybe a little lower once the demand subsides) before then taking an uptrend in the following months.
Retail Offer closed at 5.00pm last night so we are due an announcement and a Capital Change Notice shortly. SP currently at $0.59 so considerable adjustment ( in the direction of reality ) since my post exactly one month ago now. That said I think low 60's is more likely in a further week or so when all the dust has settled. But it is true that since a large number of shares have been acquired now at 52c there will be a preponderance of sellers for some time as profits are taken.
Announcement and Capital Change Notice now filed. Retail raise included acceptance of all oversubscriptions, raising $8.2m, so now almost 270m shares on issue ( from tomorrow ). Ohaupo acquisition completed on 5 August, with the balance of funds raised no doubt applied to repay borrowings, at least in the near term - bank debt was $24.5m as at 31 March, so will at least mitigate interest liability with immediate effect.
Share price now $0.55 so approaching the capital raise price. Doesn't appear to bear any relationship to the so-called theoretical ex raise price of 76.6c when the overall raise was first announced to the market. Me thinks much wishful thinking/window dressing involved. Still believe SP will reach low 60's in the reasonably near term when the market has digested these events and the early sellers have been placated.
I agree with winner69. A terrible float. Wage inflation will put a lot of pressure on the care model. Even at current price, fail to see the attraction. Good luck to holders though.
I was wrong. Share price will not reach low 60's in the near term. Experienced CEO now leaving soon, and the Covid outbreak effect will impact for a while. A lot of sellers around. Best case will be a good result for half year ending 30 September, and that looking somewhat dubious.
Hi Ronaldson I bought in the placement to sell off as did a lot of others so it was bound to go down to that sp placement price as it has.
Why is the c e o leaving do you know is it family reasons as per usual !!
I do not see radius & the care sector being affected by covid as much as a lot of other industries ,tourism hospitality etc
Lets see where we are at hy results sept I see no reasons why it should not bump up to the low 60s then .
No, I don't know why but he was Radius CFO for 7 years until 2017 and returned in 2020 " to assist with NZX listing " now of course achieved. His CV is impressive so could move on easily if that is his intention. Brien Cree, the Radius Founder in 2003 and still a large shareholder and currently Executive Chair and MD, will take over temporarily.
The GM Commercial Service is also leaving in September after joining in 2007. This may just be a natural cycle of folk retiring or looking for a new role, but taken together it is a loss of experience from the management team.
Surprised SP didn't at least hold at 0.52
SUM, RYM, OCA all doing well recently. Why is RAD seem to be lagging. Wouldn't imagine buying in at under 0.6 would be anything but more upside potential short term. Surprised to see sub 0.52. Is it just a matter of time for cap raise to settle and naturally we will see SP push back up again above 0.6? First need to see short term traders who are only looking for small profits to clear out the way 0.52-0.59. Then likely see a more steady rise back up from there.
May I suggest you folks go back to the start of this thread and re-read the whole thing. Many very experienced investors on here have already made their opinion of this one crystal clear.
If Radius was priced akin to Oceania it would be valued at about 35 cents (post cap raise)
Interesting that Brien Cree seems to now have spent Radius shareholder money on a full page " advertisement " in todays NZ Herald berating the government for the nurses shortage in this country, and their Covid response to that and related concerns. He is probably right in his observations, but one could infer much of the rant is driven by real underlying staffing issues Radius must be experiencing, notwithstanding this will be common sector-wide.
Not the first time - there was an add the other day.
Maybe he should take charge of the situation - employ some trainees, train them up, bond them for a while and pay them well to keep them.
I get sick of companies blaming others for everything that happens - in this case they could take control of some of their destiny.
They'd rather moan and poach staff than make staff.
Slowly but surely the share price is heading into the 40s
Getting closer to fair value
“Never forget that people who’s self interest is diametrically opposed to your own are trying to persuade you to act every day”