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Can anyone, hand-over-heart, tell me that they actually, on balance, have made money on speccies? And by that, I mean shares that are in "development-phase-with-huge-growth-potential" (but no profits). Genuine question. Just wondering if anyone actually has a successful strategy for it..
Yes, Buy Low. Then Sell High. I haven't tried it myself, but the logic seems sound.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Lizard
Just wondering if anyone actually has a successful strategy for it..
Lizard yes by the right company at the right time AZA and GDY on the ASX and FTB on NZX preferably get out at the right time.
Trading yes. Holding No. Successful long term investing requires cashflows and profits. It's only the middlemen who make money in the long run from specs. Happy to trade them in the right circumstances.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Lizard
Can anyone, hand-over-heart, tell me that they actually, on balance, have made money on speccies? And by that, I mean shares that are in "development-phase-with-huge-growth-potential" (but no profits). Genuine question. Just wondering if anyone actually has a successful strategy for it..
They're all just trying to find clever ways to re-phrase my idea of buying low and selling high Liz.
:DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Cooper
They're all just trying to find clever ways to re-phrase my idea of buying low and selling high Liz.
However I disagree on the subtext. If any good ideas have been shared here it was entirely by accident.
Now he's trying to belittle my brilliant idea (that's what it is whether you like it or not Halebop) by using humour Liz. You're not impressed by that are you?Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Halebop
:DQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Cooper
They're all just trying to find clever ways to re-phrase my idea of buying low and selling high Liz.
However I disagree on the subtext. If any good ideas have been shared here it was entirely by accident.
By the way Liz I'm an advanced member and Halebop is only a senior member if that counts for anything (and it does, of course).
Yeah, thanks Cooper. Buy low, sell high...who'd have thought of that?!! Gee, that explains why I'm doing so badly in my uni assignments - forgetting to state the obvious...;)
Maybe I should just re-iterate the "actually, on balance, made money". i.e., not just one lucky lotto win. But actually, across all the speccies you've bought...come out winning? Doubt anyone could be bothered to calculate that one, but maybe have a feel?
Investing in spec resource stocks on the ASX has been kind to most I'd imagine. This is because there's a bull resource market of course. Any success I've had has been a result of pure momentum investing (buying low and selling high!)and a reliance on blind luck and/or the pre-empting of resource announcements (otherwise known as blind luck). So... a strategy? No. Mostly just reliance on proven management and punting on upcoming announcements. But I am in profit.
BTW... what are you studying? Depending on the subject, the obvious may be the last thing you want to state.
I'll have you know young'un that those words were uttered by one of your betters some considerable period prior hereQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Cooper
Now he's trying to belittle my brilliant idea (that's what it is whether you like it or not Halebop) by using humour Liz. You're not impressed by that are you?
In my day we had more respect for our elders! :shakes fist: ...and we voted for Muldoon too.
Momentum investing has its places. When the correction invariably comes usually the best place is in someone elses portfolio.
I think you will find that many people have selective amnesia. They can remember the odd winner, but not the many losers.Quote:
quote:Orginally posted by Lizard
Maybe I should just re-iterate the "actually, on balance, made money". i.e., not just one lucky lotto win. But actually, across all the speccies you've bought...come out winning?
I hope you're right PT. I was starting to feel decidedly forlorn under the weight of losing speccies I've held...
Buy low, sell high. Easy to say. Sell high - no problem, that's anywhere higher than where I started. Buy low? How do you tell where "low" is on a speccie? With companies that actually have earnings, it is easy enough to come up with a reasonable valuation and decide if they are "low". But speccies? Any "low" I buy, will (in hindsight) turn out to be somewhere close to the last high...
Thanks for the comments Cooper - useful to know that someone can make it work.
I suspect what Halebop said re trading rather than holding is probably where I've gone wrong. Most of those speccies probably spent at least 24 hours north of where I bought them before they started to slide...
Financial Planning - I think I may have taken that plagiarism warning too seriously. My propositions were phrased so differently from those in the textbook that the marker didn't recognise them.[B)]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Cooper
BTW... what are you studying? Depending on the subject, the obvious may be the last thing you want to state.
Well, I'd like to think that I made it work but the honest truth is that dumb luck and a bull market (the bigger idiot theory Halebop alludes to) are mostly responsible for my "wins". Some companies I hold on to in the expectation they will become productive (I've posted on these on the ASX, specifically TAW and NEO, both of which are down on my average purchase price), but the majority of them I rely on the old "buy on rumour, sell on fact" chestnut (the theory being that the anticipation of the event is more exciting for the market than the reality). The key is the ability to make a decision based on very little and the foolhardiness to go ahead with it... which obviously results in the odd horrendous loss.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Lizard
Thanks for the comments Cooper - useful to know that someone can make it work.
I suspect what Halebop said re trading rather than holding is probably where I've gone wrong. Most of those speccies probably spent at least 24 hours north of where I bought them before they started to slide...
But as you say... settling for small percentage gains (I generally go for 10% minimum) based on the inherent volatility of the stock rather than holding out for multiples of your orignal purchase price seems to be the idea. So, Buy quickly at a low price on rumour and Sell just as quickly at a higher one on fact is as complicated as it gets. I'm no TA expert but a quick look at a graph or the belief that a possible announcement hasn't been factored in can give you a relative idea of "low", and "high" is whatever you want to make on the stock.
Plenty of people doing it better than I ever could on the ASX board though... a lot of wiser heads who do it for a living.
Well, I... ummm.... sure. No, I'll freely admit the idea may appear, on first glance, to be borrowed from other people. Sure, I'll cop to that. But it's the inflection I put on it. That's what makes the advice so sound. That, and my astounding depth of knowledge regarding all things stockmarket, which just makes the advice that much more worthwhile.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Halebop
I'll have you know young'un that those words were uttered by one of your betters some considerable period prior hereQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Cooper
Now he's trying to belittle my brilliant idea (that's what it is whether you like it or not Halebop) by using humour Liz. You're not impressed by that are you?
In my day we had more respect for our elders! :shakes fist: ...and we voted for Muldoon too.
Thanks Cooper. Some useful thoughts there.
Cheers,
Liz
Liz,
>>I think I may have taken that plagiarism warning too seriously.<<
To use only one source as your own thinking is plagiarism. To use many is the results of research. Stay above one and you should be OK.
Back to the subject;
I have taken a punt on a number of resource stocks listed on the ASX. Not trading and currently happy to continue to hold most. Up about 20% since I started 3 months ago. Some of them are very volatile and it does not always pay to buy on the rumour or sell on the fact, unless you are a very astutue day trader, which I am not.
If you are interested have a look at;
BKA Buka Minerals
MAL Maltilda Minerals
MPO Molopo Australia
TOX Tox Free Solutions
VCR Ventracor Limited.
but do your own detailed research as all have many rampers/detractors, some on this site.
I am well in the money on all but the last, will stick with them in the hope that they will, at least, give a shareholders discount on their device. If the SP goes much lower it may not be a case of "If" but "Now".
Best wishes,
have you tried making an index?
get some historical price data and see what a buy-and-hold diversified portfolio of "speccies" would yeild over a certain time period
you'd have to fight the bias of hindisght sure, but it could give a reasonable indication.
that said as far as miners go it's just gambling innit, buy before exploration results and cross fingers