TPI - Transpacific Industries Group

Hi All

This has been a good runner since it listed in May
Picked some up on the last dip to 3.50 (not quite at the bottom though unfortunately)
Busy little company, been making acquisitions already

I like the waste business, always money in cleaning up someone else’s mess;)

Be interested in other views on it

Cheers
Slam

Z_Man

Yep bottom drawer for me
Any luck I might get a few more when they make a T/O play for TOX;)
Got a few of them

Cheers
Slam

...TPI spending 70m to aquire:

- 7 solid waste businesses
- 3 liquid and industrial services businesses

both in NZ and A.

...wonder if Tox might be one of them???

Kind regards

heres the info i gathered up from the tread i started up on TPI.


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.a...earchTerms=tpi

I dont know if the link works or not.

I like the TPI story but not at current prices. Nice rise in recent days but overbought at the moment, will consider purchase upon retracement back to $6.30 - $6.50. There's also a huge equity raising in the next two weeks to consider.

SEC

Last price $9.09 and has 'buy' recommendation from my stockbroker. Might wait for couple of months and see if market gets colliwobbles - would like to get some for the bottom drawer. No doubt about it waste is great business.

Great company but I think that the opportunity and the "margin of safety" is somewhat gone. However, I have it in my watchlist for the time when and if it starts the downtrend.

I don't know what stockbroker you are talking about but I cannot see how it can have a "buy" recommendation at the present price and at the NPV given by the latest annual report. It's past its fair value.

ABN recently upgraded to buy with t/p somewhere over 10

I for one, really like the industry, so do PE firms . paying a massive price for envirowaste in NZ

but yeaah, its too expensive meaning that in any market correction, yuo'll probably loose 25% .... and may need a long snorkel for a while...
eg May-August

If you're timeframe was 10 years, no problem, but most ppl dont have a 10 yr horizon.
i know the best my clients will give me is 12-18 months....

I would buy some in the 7's maybe even the low 8's

i believe the asx will have a 15-20% pullback at some point in 07. so i'll wait

still its in a nice uptrend at the mo

Hi All
The rumor mill has it that they may be making a play for DMX
If so, I thing it is a buy, even at these levels
Mind you easy for me to say, I have been in TPI since late 05[8D]

Cheers
Slam

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Footsie

ABN recently upgraded to buy with t/p somewhere over 10

I for one, really like the industry, so do PE firms . paying a massive price for envirowaste in NZ

but yeaah, its too expensive meaning that in any market correction, yuo'll probably loose 25% .... and may need a long snorkel for a while...
eg May-August

If you're timeframe was 10 years, no problem, but most ppl dont have a 10 yr horizon.
i know the best my clients will give me is 12-18 months....

I would buy some in the 7's maybe even the low 8's

i believe the asx will have a 15-20% pullback at some point in 07. so i'll wait

still its in a nice uptrend at the mo

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Quite a prescient post by Footsie there.

TPI plunged almost 30% in the correction and has struggled to regain its losses in the subsequent recovery. Can only think the lack of bounce is due to the flight toward safety at the big end of town. I bought a heap sub $11 last week to try and balance my resource heavy portfolio. I think TPI reports on the 29th - if TPI meets expectations of $103M NPAT watch for a bounce back to $13+.

SEC

I bought in today averaging around $10.50. I share your sentiment SEC that TPI should be good for a bounce to $13+.

Still cum a 6.7c divy....not much for sure, but better than a kick in the goolies all the same. :)

TPI is in a downtrend now.

I wont be going near it unless its back at that $8 mark or a new uptrend resumes

Still a great company tho.
reminds me of ABS. great company , great management. but the market suddenly goes off them, namely because they keep issuing shares to fund growth.

If had to pick a few low risk companies for a pension fund or my baby's college fund i'd probably pick ABS and TPI as you know they'll still be around in 10 yrs and be huge companies by then
people always need to put their kids in daycare and there will always be rubbish !
new technologies wont change those industries.

I used to always have AIA in my hypothetical "pension" fund too - but that's just way overvalued now.

Fair enough Footsie. It will be interesting to see how strong this trend proves to be.

Out of interest, Huntleys currently have TPI as a buy below $11.10.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Footsie

TPI is in a downtrend now.

I wont be going near it unless its back at that $8 mark or a new uptrend resumes

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You see a (short term) downtrend, I see a buying opportunity in a long term uptrend and a strong support/resistance line at $10.

At current prices, TPI is trading at PE08 of 17 and is cheap wrt its peers. Companies in similar industries to TPI include Brambles (PE08 26), Leighton (PE08 23) and Transfield (PE08 22).

SEC

SEC

you are right in some respects

its cheap relative to peers

But I recently bought a growth stock on a P/E of 10 then watched in disbelief as it fell to a p/e of 7

If you're horizon is 5 years - go for it

But mine is shorter than that so id rather get my timing right

Footsie - TPI is in a downtrend now.

Downtrend apparently well and truely over Footsie!

TPI up 7.5% to $11.39 on no news. Does anyone know if there were any broker reports / news reports on TPI released today that might account for the strength?

Well the $10 support line held. It should never have got anywhere near $10 this month but for a sell call by GSJustBeWare implying TPI is a victim of the credit crunch and that it may have to renew its finances on unfavourable terms (the call made before the Fed dropped i-rates and the credit market started functioning again).

GSJBW have a poor record on stocks/sectors I follow and I remember fondly their call to sell coal stocks in 2004 which provided a fantastic buying opportunity just before the coalies went ballistic:

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...?t=706&page=17

Interesting to note that Peabody was buying up large over the past week - nearly $38M on-market. That's the largest insider buying on-market I can recall for a long time on the ASX. It's confirmation of how badly oversold TPI was over the past few weeks.

I hope I can toast GSJBW for another bad call in the next few weeks. Short term target price $12.50.

SEC

Quote:

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Originally Posted by SEC

Interesting to note that Peabody was buying up large over the past week - nearly $38M on-market. That's the largest insider buying on-market I can recall for a long time on the ASX. It's confirmation of how badly oversold TPI was over the past few weeks.

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Chairman Peabody has bought around $80M on-market in the past 2 months. TPI has recently rolled over some debt on favourable terms. Commsec makes the comment that rolling over the $2B bridging finance with 'worst case' rates would only reduce 08 eps by 2%. All ringing endorsements of TPI's future. Yet the price still languishes. The price discount cannot last.

SEC

Sooooo tempted to get back in this week at under $10.60, but a portfolio reshuffle was needed, and I dilly dallied a bit too long and missed the opportunity.

Looks like TPI will take an interest in CMA Corp (CMV) which was one of Robbo's picks. For some time, I have thought that TPI might bid for CMV, as they seem like a natural extension of the space that TPI operates in.

IMHO, TPI has to be one of the better buys in the top end of the market.

i dont get the attraction to this company.
other than being significantly below it pre-august peak price, the financial structure doesnt really inspire me. its still trading at 21 PE despite the SP fallback. the growth justifies this rating, provided the historical growth continues in the near term.

just going off the etrade balance sheet:
70% debt and a 5% ROC!
Despite the gearing, ROE is only 10%, down from 27%. what would it be without the gearing!!

given a relatively low payout ratio 0f 25%, i wouldnt be too keen on leaving 75% of company earnings to get 10% p.a.

Net profit margin is average at 8%

sales and profit growth has been quite impressive, no doubt.

i dont think the overall waste management industry is growing at the same rate as this company's sales/profits, so it will be a matter of competitive positioning acquisitions. in any case, waste management isnt a value added service, so id imagine customers would be price sensitive like most outsourced services.

positives: whilst it seems to be capital intensive industry, it will benefit from consolidation/scale. they seem to be quite acquisitive at the mo, which will benefit their competitive position, possibly increasing pricing power to boot!

sound cynical dont i!?!
personal preference; i just like companies with fatter margins, higher ROE, less debt.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Big Ease

i dont get the attraction to this company.
other than being significantly below it pre-august peak price, the financial structure doesnt really inspire me. its still trading at 21 PE despite the SP fallback.

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Looks like you're using a historical PE. Using historical PEs to justify current price is like driving using only the rear vision mirror. Forward PE is 18, a significant discount to its peers.

SEC

SEC a fwd p/e of 18 is not cheap.

They are highly leveraged and are anticipating large growth

either look for a lower entry p/e of 14 or less gives you some buffer

or find another company on a lower p/e
there are plenty out there

Footsie that may be right but there are few companies in this very important sector that have the growth possibility/desire that TPI have.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Footsie

either look for a lower entry p/e of 14 or less gives you some buffer

or find another company on a lower p/e
there are plenty out there

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Not in waste management or similar industries there isn't. TPI is still significantly discounted to its peers which trade at PEs in the mid 20s. TPI has never traded at PE 14 and I don't expect it to trade at 14 in the future so won't bother waiting.

Yes TPI is leveraged but has good net operating cashflow to cover interest payments 3x over.

So TPI won't be a short term multibagger but since most of my other holdings have been multibaggers (mostly resources based) it has left the portfolio highly leveraged to commodities. TPI provides a good balance at a discounted price.

SEC

looks like ive opened up a bit of a hornet's nest.
tpi may well be a good stock given its business prospects.

but for the same reason i dont buy into high PE companies with debt and low margins, i think i best leave tpi and its ilk alone if theyre highly geared and reliant to a great degree (though not solely) on acquisition.

for comparison; i also hold PME, which has a PE of 21. I consider this company to be good value because it has gross margins of 70%, net profit margins of 50%, high ROE, no debt, pays a very good dividend, has excellent organic growth prospects, stable founding managers etc.

now if both of these companies experience a bump in the road, i reckon PME would have better shock absorbers. for that reason, i hold PME and not TPI. all things being equal, blah blah blah.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Big Ease

for comparison; i also hold PME, which has a PE of 21. I consider this company to be good value because it has gross margins of 70%, net profit margins of 50%, high ROE, no debt, pays a very good dividend, has excellent organic growth prospects, stable founding managers etc.

now if both of these companies experience a bump in the road, i reckon PME would have better shock absorbers. for that reason, i hold PME and not TPI. all things being equal, blah blah blah.

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So you prefer a company whose share price has gone nowhere in the past 3 years (cf TPI 300+%), whose major shareholders' last transactions were significant selldowns (cf TPI major holder buying $80M on market) and where the liquidity is dreadful - lucky to get daily volume of $10K (cf TPI $10M).

Each to their own.

SEC

oh come on SEC.
the major shareholders you refer to still own 60% of the company, down from 80%.
this was a direct effort to increase the liquidity in the stock, but nevertheless, i dont regard liquidity as a reason not to hold a stock with quality fundamentals.

the stock price hasnt done much, but there is a commentary that goes with that. management have been building a business base for accelerated growth that is expected to take place over the next 12 months. fortunately, i bought a few months ago and sit on a modest 17% gain, with their growth expected to accelerate into the second half im sure the SP will follow. i didnt buy into it because i thought the SP would remain stagnant. i think there is some exciting growth ahead. concerned about the USD exchange rate though.

anyhow, i dont want to hijack the thread to spruik PME. but going by your argument about shareprice increase, FMG is a better stock to hold than BHP. like i said, its not that i dont think tpi is a good stock. but the financial characteristics place a few other stocks ahead of it at the mo. it would have to take quite a tumble for there to be a sufficient margin of safety. right now, i dont see any margin. full speed, fully geared, low margins.

i wish you well and i may be wrong, but it doesnt change the financial issues i outlined in my first post. i wouldnt call them robust by any stretch. i also think that ABS is better value right now, with good growth prospects, better fundamentals, though carrying similar risks due to growth by acquisition.

perhaps i should ask, other than the purchase of shares on market by management and the acquisitions tendency/pipeline, what is it that gives you so much confidence in this company?

All in hindsight with FMG V BHP. Few points I like to add:

You are not comparing apples with apples with PME and TPI. Both are very much different coy and people value them differently. TPI are defensive with some sort of monopoly. Everybody need waste management regardless of whats happening in the world. The low margin on TPI are the characteristic of the coy. High volume, low margin, just like supermarket chain. It's not a bad thing at all.

Anyway, with BHP and FMG, you can't compared them either. One is producing, diversified and made billions of dollars and the other, never made a profit in the history of the coy. It's just that people are pricing them ahead, hence the margin of safety is never there for FMG. Buying them at between $10 and $60 are speculative, with no historical profits, EPS, PE and dividends. It's just that they hit $60 that you are saying they are better performer than BHP. Anyway FMG are producing just one commodity. Not a comparison at all, just because they are both in the resources sector. Ah, what hindsight can do to people.

all points i agree with soulman.
my comments are only intended at addressing the financial characteristics of tpi, not its prospects for further gains in the share price.

i am only suggesting that for a similar PE, there are other companies out there with excellent growth prospects, better margins, less debt and higher rates of return for capital AND equity. so you get all the "good" traits ot TPI, without any of the negatives.

so what is it about this company?
i cant think of anything but share price and acquisition momentum.

are you happy for the company to retain 75% of earnings and earn 10% on them despite 70% debt? i wouldnt be!

it doesnt mean the SP wont go up further, but in the instance of a set back (market or company specific), TPI may not absorb it as well as a company with better financials.

now ill sit back and watch it treble :)

Not worries Big Easy. I know I wouldn't buy TPI either according to your comment of their financials so we got something in common there.

But the fact that management are buying big in TPI could suggest many things, management buyout with private equity a possibility.

Many of SEC stocks seems to be in the growth area, low yield, low margins, but that's the characteristics of the coy he likes. I couldn't helped but envy the man that has so many good stocks riding high in recent years. Firms like WOR and TSE, IGO, MCR and other emerging miners. TPI fits in that category. I wouldn't be suprised to see TPI at about $14 comes late Jan.

TPI has refinanced its $2 billion bridging loan and has reconfirmed FY08 guidance given a while ago. Some brokers such as GSJBW were faring the worst and marking down profit estimates on expectations of significantly higher interest payments.

Since TPI's price has been heavily discounted because of the uncertainty over refinancing this loan maybe we can now get the re-rating back to $14 where it belongs and more in line with peer valuations...

SEC

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soulman

Many of SEC stocks seems to be in the growth area, low yield, low margins, but that's the characteristics of the coy he likes.

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Have just read your comment Soulman, looking at my portfolio (currently 100% ASX200 stocks) I'm not so much into low yield/margin stocks (most of my resource stocks enjoy very high margins) but very much into reliability of earnings/dividends/production and/or valuation wrt peer companies.

SEC

T P I is getting absolulty hammered at present its $2.5 along way from $14.00 , getting slaughtered by the shorters, can it survive????????

Is it time to have another look at TPI?

SP has recovered to $3-26; P/E 5.28; Yield 5.6%; large tranche of debt refinanced to December, 2009; strong position in a a solid, defensive business; strong cashflows; forecast earnings increase around 15%.

Certainly carrying a lot of debt but financing looks to be secure and interest costs will be reducing.

Any thoughts out there?

Disc: Not holding but near the top of my watchlist.

Well, I've had another look at TPI and although it seems tempting at today's beaten down SP and low P/E, I don't like the look of the balance sheet.
Apart from the hefty borrowings, a large chunk of which falls due for rolling over later this year, the company is carrying Intangibles of about $2.5b, over half of the total assets of a bit over $4.2b. Of the $2.5b, about $2b is Goodwill.
There's been some speculation that the co will need to raise more equity to improve its ratios and ensure re-financing. It may also need to take a hit to the b/s if that $2.5b is seen as overvalued in today's world. While I still like the business, I think I'll sit this out and await developments.

Anyone else have a view?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by macduffy

Anyone else have a view?

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Agree. Good business, bad balance sheet so one to stay out of for the moment

TPI in a trading halt.

Looks like the long anticipated capital raising may be about to be announced.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by macduffy

TPI in a trading halt.

Looks like the long anticipated capital raising may be about to be announced.

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Wonder what the discount be?

I don't know what was in that announcement that caused a 35% fall today .... heck at 180 its market cap is down to $560m

Sold out at just over $12 when the 100 day MA was breached .... TPI another great example of what Phaedrus says ... a pretty well behaved stock really

Amazing that they say they are making more and more money and the shareprice can fall from 1400+ to 180 in less than 2 years

just shows you that Waste Management shareholders did get a great deal a few years ago

Quote:

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Originally Posted by winner69

I sold out at just over $12 when the 100 day MA was breached....

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The chart shows 6 technical indicators, including the MA100 that served W69 so well. All 6 indicators gave good clear SELL signals at around the same time before TPI was even in a confirmed downtrend. There have been no buy signals triggered in the current downtrend that has run for 18 months, so far.

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/TPI217.gif

Quote:

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Originally Posted by winner69

TPI is another great example of what Phaedrus says ... a pretty well behaved stock really.

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Yes, this stock has nice tidy trends, but sadly many people prefer to simply ignore them. The comments and Buy points marked on the chart come from ST and HotCopper and were all posted after TPI had triggered those Sell signals and when it was already in a confirmed downtrend. They comprise the usual grab-bag of blind optimism, brokers recommendations, PE data, reports of management buying, misinterpreted trends and of course, the usual tragic examples of misguided punters "averaging down".

The market simply carried on down.

TPI whatsup is this trouble or a real explaination. whatsup-whatsup-whatsup!!!!!!!!!

I guess tpi might ends like ABC ?????

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Jim

I guess tpi might ends like ABC ?????

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Maybe not like ABC ... but holders must be getting a bit concerned having to wait a month

Long negotiations with many people usually don't end up with good news for shareholders

Good well run day to day company ... just got too big too quick ... and the kilelr was borrowed money

Waste Management shareholders who bemoaned selling too cheap a few yaers ago did OK in the end

Nothing constructive out yet, any way out for TPI.!!!!!!!!!!

Suspended 3 months now ( at its own request) but Im sure it will get absolutely hammered when its relisted, alot of shareholders wil not want anything to do with this co again, whats the betting of the shares once it gets relisted. .40 Aussie!!!!

Depending on whether they can get the cash they need, I'd love TPI to be unloved and ignored.

Disc : None, yet.

Ann out last night recap by Warburgs Terry to lose control with his holding down to 18%, cash raising at $1.2 per share, the company will servive but will take another 6 weeks to unfold, what a mess this has been!!!

This company has gone from a high of $15.00 to $1.80.

What price will it open today after a huge cash issue? :eek:

This company looks abit like NPX and FPA to me.

RElisted at $1.04 WOW not the best but sellers can get out sub $1.20!!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Dr_Who

This company has gone from a high of $15.00 to $1.80.

What price will it open today after a huge cash issue? :eek:

This company looks abit like NPX and FPA to me.

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A big difference is that debt is still high after the placement and entitlement offer. One estimate I have seen is that net debt to equity reduces from 150% at December 2008 to 72%, but DYOR on that!
I still think it's a good business but I'm not tempted at this stage.

I think TPI will be volatile for the next few weeks.

Good trading opportunity.

traded this for a quick profit today.
bought a bit too late and sold a bit too early but made money.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Footsie

traded this for a quick profit today.
bought a bit too late and sold a bit too early but made money.

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You and me both bro. :)

TPI looks like a under valued stock.

It should recover with the recover of the resource sector, esp once the mines starts to crank up their operations again. Debt is still abit high, but banks prepare to back them. Dont need to review debt till 2011.

Leveraged for the recovery of the Aussie economy.

disclosure: recently purchase TPI

Refinance in 2012, i think. No interest. Banks screwed this one...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by beacon

Refinance in 2012, i think. No interest. Banks screwed this one...

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I think they rather screwed themselves.

Net debt to equity after a successful completion of the entitlement offer will still be around 72%, compared to the rather horrendous 150% before the extended market suspension. Still too indebted for my taste so I won't be tempted although it has the makings of a good business.

I saw a great research report that a view that the Aussie economy will have a V shape recover, which I agree. TPI will benefit greatly from its leveraged position in this V shape recovery. This is a under valued story in a booming market. It is harder to find under valued stocks when the market has gone up 50%.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by macduffy

I think they rather screwed themselves.

Net debt to equity after a successful completion of the entitlement offer will still be around 72%, compared to the rather horrendous 150% before the extended market suspension. Still too indebted for my taste so I won't be tempted although it has the makings of a good business.

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Conceded, though I still believe the empire crashed with a big help from GFC as well. I am hearing groans in the fields about TPI's NZ operations. They continue to bleed, and still have a huge "goodwill" on books. Wonder when the writedowns will come...

The bad news have all been priced into the shares at these levels.

Private equity firm Warburg Pincus will end up owning more than 40% of TPI onces capital raising is complete. They are under writing the capital raising. Warburg is probably thinking it is like stealing a candy bar off a bunch of little kids.

Watch TPI once mining and construction in Aussie starts cranking up.

Anyone following TPI?
volumes of waste will never get smaller
Looking at the graph of performance, have to wonder when it is a buy.
Craigs rate it lowly because still bit indebted
'The least attractive are Wotif.com
(WTF.ASX) and Transpacific Industries Group (TPI.ASX).'

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gonzo

Anyone following TPI?
volumes of waste will never get smaller
Looking at the graph of performance, have to wonder when it is a buy.
Craigs rate it lowly because still bit indebted
'The least attractive are Wotif.com
(WTF.ASX) and Transpacific Industries Group (TPI.ASX).'

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Hi Gonzo.
I held both stocks.Made great profits on WTF as I got them at issue.I suppose I lost it all on TPI.
WARNING.Both stocks are in massive down trends.Hold off buying until the trend reverses.WTF have a lot of competition,while TPI still carries too much debt.I would not buy either again.Other Aussie companies I hold may be worth a look. CMG,GXL NOD,PEA,PGC,ZGL.

the graph of TPI reminds me of the limbo dance, has to be a screaming buy soon

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gonzo

the graph of TPI reminds me of the limbo dance, has to be a screaming buy soon

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I may remember the song 'lets do the limbo dance,how low can you go?"
The charts saying and proving "even lower".!

If they didn't have so much debt the financials would be a fantastic and so would the shareprice

A real cash generator but with it's current capital structure many inherent risks

A market cap of $1 billion ... hey thats about what they paid for Waste Management a few years ago ... now there was a share owning

warburg pincus paid something like $1.40 /share about 2 years ago and put in new bosses didn't they, and isn't it a good cash flow business

Quote:

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Originally Posted by winner69

If they didn't have so much debt the financials would be a fantastic and so would the shareprice

A real cash generator but with it's current capital structure many inherent risks

A market cap of $1 billion ... hey thats about what they paid for Waste Management a few years ago ... now there was a share owning

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winner69 sums it up gonzo. I have just had a look at the finnancials.ROE very low at 2.3%.Interest cover low at 1.5. A huge amount of intangibles 2.4 bil on the balance sheet.Very weak,still.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

winner69 sums it up gonzo. I have just had a look at the finnancials.ROE very low at 2.3%.Interest cover low at 1.5. A huge amount of intangibles 2.4 bil on the balance sheet.Very weak,still.

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.... and worse still return on invested capital (debt plus equity) is less than 5% .... big time value destruction

The intangibles are the businesses they acquired over the years (some with with borrowed money) .... and such low returns say they paid over the top for them eh ..... and Waste Management shareholders in NZ thought they were ripped off but they got a real good deal

TPI a financial rsik .... probably something has to give one day ..... but maybe some gains the punters out there

Gonzo.
Article in today's Sunday Star-Times will be of interest to you.Sober reading.
Debt load nearly twice the company's market cap.possible cap raising 75c a share,asset sales.
But the real fun,or killer is,TPI's tax arrangements are being reviewed on both sides of the Tasman.!!!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

Gonzo.
But the real fun,or killer is,TPI's tax arrangements are being reviewed on both sides of the Tasman.!!!

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You'd be surprised how many OZ companies are caught up in those 'structured finance arrangements' to reduce tax paid in NZ.

Any OZ company who had sizable businesses in NZ were in on this rort --- great work by the IRD to catch the theiving aussie bastards - the banks have paid up so hope the others do the decent thing and front up as well

Certain irony if TPI had sell Waste Management back to NZ instos and mum and dad investors

All those who thought they were screwed years ago might get the company back at a discount

Quote:

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Originally Posted by winner69

Certain irony if TPI had sell Waste Management back to NZ instos and mum and dad investors

All those who thought they were screwed years ago might get the company back at a discount

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Certainly looks that way.

This graph reminds me of the old song "Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket" or would that be shareacide

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/direc...uote=Go+%3E%3E

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gonzo

This graph reminds me of the old song "Catch a falling star and put it in your pocket" or would that be shareacide

http://www.directbroking.co.nz/direc...uote=Go+%3E%3E

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Gonzo.
There is no stopping you.I wish you well and hope in a year's time you can come back and post "Percy you were wrong again" ,however on the 5 year Yahoo chart it looks to me as though you are playing Russian Roulette with a fully loaded double barrelled shotgun!!! Just miss a turn and let someone else pull the trigger.

Transpacific warns of deep loss.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news...-1226084070956

Nz on the block the paper says

Maybe WAM might come back to the nzx

WAM was very good me zones ago .....the CEO screwed the Aussies big time and they paid far too much for it ......and even then punters thought WAM was undervalued

TPI was the greater fool this time

TPI been on my watchlist for some time. It will become a cash cow with debt reduction continuing. Landfill sites etc make for a decent moat.

Russell Research have asell on TPI

"Its weak landfill asset performance has been recognised"

"despite buying Borals Melbourne site productivity is low"

Weak growth in Australia and notably in this industry...."

Transpacific NZ was a growth division but was sold to a Chinese company who now pick up my rubbish.

Craig's have a buy on TPI, generally I prefer to buy companies with unanimous sell recommendations.
TPI is a bit of a turnaround, the relatively new CEO has sold off the excellent NZ division for a good price and has used the proceeds to repair the balance sheet.
The companies record is spotty to say the least, when the analysts presumably had buy ratings it was overly indebted.
I started buying at 90c and bought a second tranche at 71c so my average price is 80c.
Since my initial buy the market has been dissapointed by the Melbourne landfill purchase as too expensive, one off losses due to oil prices in the recycling division.
There is concern that another big purchase will be needed for Sydney landfill. What the company is trying to do is boost it's internalisation rates, sending garbage to your own landfill is more profitable.
I am watching to see that the management are not diworsefying as previous management did. Beside that I see the company as a stable stalwart, will never become the next Google but is a safe investment.
Over the next few years as the turnaround eventuates further I am expecting improvements in dividends and profitability which will cause the market to re-rate the company.
I am a long term buy and hold investor it's pretty much irrelevant to me if the shareprice falls short term as long as it is just market sentiment and not anything really wrong.

Congrats to those savvy traders who warned of the weak balance sheet when a flock of analysts were screaming buy at $10-15.
This company has had many years of poor results, long term holders will be capitulating just as the company starts to show some signs of life.

PDF

Macquarie Australia Presentation for TOX. Has a lot of info re waste in Aus. I hold (TOX).

Thanks Joshuatree, where TPI has reported writedowns on industrial TOX seems to have found a nice niche in coal seam gas is this correct.
A much nicer record, are you expecting the growth to continue?
The industry is a nice one but TPI need to demonstrate they can capitalise on it like TOX has done. Presumably you consider the price relative to the balance sheet and growth prospects more attractive for TOX than for TPI?

In a word yes. As the presentation says;The hazardous waste Division has less competition, higher margins and is a growth industry.More LNG then CSG i believe.

60% of TOX rev under long term contract with blue chip companies. "Even though trading conditions are challenging across most sectors at pit we are forecasting to be in line with market EBITDA expectations".

I used to be int in TPI but a philantrophic ex portfolio investment adviser who knows how to really drill down and analyse(i don't) shared why TPI was no longer a recovery stock and pretty low in the Investment grade universe..I haven't kept up with TPI; so maybe things have changed so good luck with your contrarian play. .

Thanks for that Joshuatree, looks like you made a good decision. I think the LNG you are talking about comes from coal seam gas, this is a great industry to be in as public opposition to the coal seam gas has been growing requiring more expensive remediation.
People in the industry should have seen it.
It is very toxic, I am a holder of STO. No offense but the long term contract thing soundss like B.S to me. It's like all mining services companies have most of their operations outside Aust now- yeah right.
The Roma wells for Gladstone LNG have started to produce less fluid, good for STO.
I think you made a great choice but maybe worth checking that they are tied to the long term waste from operations and not thru development phase. We now have enough gas for 18 years for a 20 year life so development r more gas is a few years away.
Re TPI, I read analysts reports but as a contrarian investor just to understand 'what the enemy is thinking'' if you like. I am very disappointed that the CEO Bob Boucher has resigned just as the turnaround gains steam. I will be watching to see who the next CEO is - if it is another deworsefier (using peter lynch's term) I may have to cut my losses.
However, the moving back home excuse seems plausible to me. Explains the generous offer to stay in January, discussions may have been occurring then.
Re analysts I think it is impossible to beat them at their own game but I am playing by a different rulebook which is hoe I can succeed.
I like growth companies but just feel happier owning something unloved and cheap as I have no faith in future forecasts.

Generally better to read only the balance sheets/income statements and avoid the glossy investor presentations. They are all great at talking a story, TOX has been backing this up which is ideal but doesn't mean you should let them play with your head.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by PSE

Generally better to read only the balance sheets/income statements and avoid the glossy investor presentations. They are all great at talking a story, TOX has been backing this up which is ideal but doesn't mean you should let them play with your head.

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I think it is very important to read "the glossy investor presentations".
All you need is a good memory.
Then you can judge which companies deliver on what they say they will do.
Some do,some don't,so easy to just back the achievers, and leave the tossers to others!
TPI has a history of non achievement.!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by percy

I think it is very important to read "the glossy investor presentations".
All you need is a good memory.
Then you can judge which companies deliver on what they say they will do.
Some do,some don't,so easy to just back the achievers, and leave the tossers to others!
TPI has a history of non achievement.!

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Watch and see Percy, this will prove again why value investing (as opposed to picking the most promising companies as everyone else is doing) is the only method that works.
As if more proof was needed.
All I need the management of this company to do is not to stuff it up, I will be watching in case they do. The fact they hired Bob and repaired the balance sheet means that they seem for now to be on the same page.
The underlying business is a good one and when the market realises this I expect the company to return to about $1.1 which will represent another nice profit for me.
I will sign out for a while to stop overanalysing the market.

Bit of a thread bump, but I've been casting my eye on CWY.

The new incarnation of TPI and who have recently acquired TOX, who for a long time seen as a better company in the same waste management industry.

With expected synergy savings of $35m over 2 years, EPS accreditive, generating decent cashflows.

I like the fact they raised well over $500m capital component of the takeover, so debt level still relatively low.

The extra shares will impact EPS in the short term as settlement isn't until June 2018.

Part of my energy based focus on the ASX.

Stacks up a bit better than BIN, who have made there own acquisitions recently and the SP surged.

Disc: Not holding CWY yet.

CWY pe 31.96...dividend yield 1.47%
TOX pe 47.89....dividend yield 2.79%.
Bit rich.?

Hi Percy

Are these historical figures, TOX is able to pay out a dividend up to 5c in addition to the 3.425 per share they will receive, TOX can also use up excess imputation credits with a special dividend, to be deducted from final price.

CWY will be increasing there dividend as well, gone up from 1.7cps to 2.1cps FY16/17, any increase will still be at the lower end of the payout range.

I see an opportunity until June with extra shares/bit of overhang with TOX shareholders possibly cashing up, to buy in with a stagnant/weak share price.

Next announcement to the market will hopefully reveal figures in line/exceeding FY18 guidance excluding the TOX contribution.

I see the waste management industry as an extension of the environmental/clean technology sector, and the scale they now have sets them up nicely.

Not without risk, may take more time than anticipated to see the full impact of the takeover and benefits but i see more growth ahead.

Disc - Not a holder yet, still crunching the numbers

Yes the figures are historical,yet are up todate..
They are from ANZ Securities web site.