"May the silver be with you"
That was a very interesting read (Elliott Wave Theory) - according to this article, I can get truck loads more physical silver at super discounted rates for a couple of years (phew)
Silver may go sideways but slowly follow the current trend until 201X. It is also probable that we will see a bit of a correction / sell off coming up, maybe after the silver season (march / may 08) - Either way, I would expect to see the strongest volatility over the next few months. In looking at the overall trend, we should see higher highs and higher lows.
http://www.nzsilver.com/images/5year_silver.JPG
Back to the Elliott Wave Theory, so according to this, silver may go sideways or even down until 201X and then is will really take off when the USD gives its last gasp. It gives us a couple more years to stock up on sub 20 to 40 silver. In the past, it has been hard to put a date to when silver will take off, it could be anything from a couple of years to 5 or even 10 – but the more I read, it looks to be on the couple of years side of the scale.
Until my next lot of blabber, have a great week all and it is good to see summer is here at last.
reg Alec
www.nzsilver.com
Elliot wave applied to silver
Elliot wave applied to silver as explained by Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1195428258.php
buy, hold, move, sell the silver
Hi, Along with NZMint, you can also try Morris and Watson or AGR Matthey (both in Auckland) there is also New Zealand bullion recovery services (they have a branch in CHCH last time I checked)
(Google search or Yellow Pages for any of the above)
Depending on who issued / assayed your silver can effect the buyer spread in NZ. You could also export to Australia if required. There are numerous big refiners over there that will buy.
It is hard to say what will happen when silver does shine its true value. Will bigger NZ buyers keep buying ?. who knows. For example, and hypothetically speaking if silver peaks like it did in the 80’s and at an inflation adjusted price – we could easily be looking at anywhere between 200 to 500 and oz. If you have 1 Kg ingots @ 500 / oz that $16K. The spread will not matter as it will be so small compared to what you are selling at / profit you are taking. One problem is if silver does goes to this price, you can only really easily sell 1kg + items to bigger refineries as they have the buying power. (How many 1 kg gold ingots do you see on trademe or ebay ? nil) That is one of he reasons I mainly collect Maples and Eagles, they are both an internationally well know, precision struck 1 troy oz item. There are many more big international buying houses that buy these coins. A 1 oz coin is easier to buy / move at a few hundred an oz. When the time comes, I will be organizing a buy pool to help the masses move their silver coins ( through www.nzsilver.com)
Also remember, what pushes the price up ? buying mania. More people will see silver as an investment class asset + industrial stock piling, so in theory it should be very easy to sell regardless.
I hope this helps.
Reg Alec
I say Forget the technicals...
Hi silver bugs, here is my 2 bits for what they are worth.
I say Forget the technicals, they mean little anymore in this manipulated fiat ponzi dollar doctored market. Psychology has taken over. You do not really know when Ben, GS and ECB friends are going to dump another few billion in junk paper onto the open cash market. e.g. if Ben, GS and ECB friends lollie scramble another couple hundred billion, you will see metal prices react as you would expect. ( TAF's & ECB 1/2 trillion) It really isn't liquidity though but rather a book entry on the balance sheet. Take Wiemar Germany, circa 1923. As that country's monetary problems worsened, the central bank (Reichsbank), in the delusional thinking of that day, helicoptered one-half trillion of Reichsmarks to provide liquidity. What happened next ? I think we all know, The only difference, today this is on a global scale.
1. These months leading through to March are the buying season for silver so you would expect to see some heavy buying.
2. Fiat ponzi dollar doctoring by Ben, GS and ECB friends are having a big but not permanent effect (like petrol on a fire).
3. How solvent are the banks ??
4. Current financial technicals have little meaning as there is no real measure to compare with.
5. Open contracts 21st Dec 07 (Silver futures and options) = 184,158 X 5000 = 920,790,000 oz of paper silver. These will eventually unwind just like the credit bubble derivatives are starting to do now.
6. S&P 500 Annual ROI = 4.96%
S&P 500 close on 12/27/06: 1426.84
S&P 500 close on 12/26/07: 1497.66
compared to iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
YTD Return Market Price @ 21/12/2007 = %12.43
All I can say is if you have the spare capital and can wait a year or three - buy and hold physical. The price starts bouncing around 1 dollar or 2 / oz and everybody gets excited. This is nothing compared to what will come. (yeah yeah - laugh it up) Remember – in 1980, a $1K face value bag of .90 silver (approx 720 oz of .999 silver) coins could buy a house (4 bedroom, ¼ acre) with change.
(NOTE : I am not an investment advisor but I believe it will be beneficial to have a percentage or your investment in silver)
reg Alec @ NZSilver
2.6 kgs only the start for jbmurc
Are Perth's silver stocks low?
Crikey intern Lachlan Taylor writes:
A storm appears to be brewing around The Perth Mint, with speculation that the Mint’s precious metals pool has run dry. There have been recent reports from customers of delays or refusals from the Mint when making requests for the delivery of silver.
The Perth Mint Certificate Program allows customers to purchase precious metals without the burden of having to personally store them. However, dozens of customers have reported long delays or straight refusals from the Perth Mint when trying to physically collect their silver.
The Mint is wholly-owned by the Western Australian Government, who fully guarantee the certificate program. The PMCP is the only certificate program in the world which has such government backing.
Currently the Mint has a precious metals liability of $880 million dollars, with $380 million going to subsidiaries to be used as an operating pool. With this much liability it seems inconceivable that the Mint could have run short of silver, and yet the signs seem to point to this. The Mint has told customers that there is no shortage, and that the delay is in production. But surely with an $880 million dollar operating pool they could ensure that production is completed on time.
Jason Hommel from SilverStockReport.com has had complaints from 30-50 of his 80,000 subscribers, and has informed the WA government on their behalf -- to no avail.
Two readers also sent in emails they had received from Nigel Moffet, the Treasurer and manager of The Perth Mint, which suggested an unhealthy reliance on the government.
Moffet reportedly said that investors in the certificates do not need to worry about the solvency of the Perth Mint, but rather the solvency of the government of Western Australia, which has a surplus of $2 billion/year.
If The Perth Mint were selling silver futures without the actual bullion, it would be a serious breach of the Fair Trading Act.
Hommel believes that any sort of government bail-out would send silver prices skyrocketing, as has happened before with gold prices, and could further destabilise world currencies.
The Perth Mint has refuted these “absolutely baseless” allegations and stressed that they are “audited rigourously” by the WA government and independent companies such as PricewaterhouseCoopers.
They also pointed out that all PMCP precious metals are insured by Lloyd’s of London, and that the Western Australian government has a AAA rating from Standard and Poor’s.
But with the price of silver set to soar (and therefore the amount of the Mint’s liability), troubling questions still remain.