True. I hope Goldman Sachs are actively pumping the company to NBC and other potential American buyers at the same time so that we get a multitude of competing bids.
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The good news is that I don't think the post entitlement pump has started yet. Recent gains are more likely part of the broader market recovery of Covid-19.
Ideally if the share price can reach low to mid 20's by next month, then a take over comes, it should provide a better platform. Throw in a bidding war and the stock could very much reach 50c without being too stretched valuation wise. At that price it's about ~$850m valuation, this is very top end though, and absolute bull case.
Most likely nothing happens and stock trades in the mid 20's until further news.
Is anyone buying on market at the moment? Very tempting for me.
I looked again at the Infratil announcement just now.
- The placement size is roughly the same size as Sky TV market cap.
- They own 50% of Vodafone.
- Commerce commission should give the "green light" now that Spark has entered the Sports TV market.
- UBS is doing the book build. Which is the same investment bank involved with Sky.
- Wording in announcement: "...take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of current market conditions."
- Wording in announcement: "...work underway to reset strategy and establish the new target operating model and market position across key customer segments"
mmm, is a take over of Sky by Infratil happening soon? Nah, this is all just a coincident...;)
SKY TV is an infrastructure asset now?
I think 30c would be the absolute minimum an offer would need to be to get past the board.
And that would only MAYBE succeed if IFT were the only party bidding for the business.
30c is only ~NZ$500M. That is only about US$330M. Peanuts for NBC and other big US companies.