You'right Hoop,mullet is still in so definitely secular bear
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/401...goodhue-faster
AND whats more he is a Taniwha. Taniwhas are always right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiwISjvX3mM
:cool:
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You'right Hoop,mullet is still in so definitely secular bear
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/sport/401...goodhue-faster
AND whats more he is a Taniwha. Taniwhas are always right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiwISjvX3mM
:cool:
Blackrock at it again
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-w...70000680.htmlt
If IFT drops again like it did will it get a new bankster?
Hopefully not.Tightly held & managed?
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/.../shareholdings
133
Twenty largest shareholders
as at 31 March 2020
Citibank Nominees (NZ) Ltd 43,571,042
Accident Compensation Corporation 39,075,418
Tea Custodians Limited 38,905,639
JPMORGAN Chase Bank 36,236,013
HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited 35,536,795
Forsyth Barr Custodians Limited 28,149,999
HSBC Nominees (New Zealand) Limited 27,185,751
FNZ Custodians Limited 26,980,840
New Zealand Permanent Trustees Limited 18,105,636
JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 15,984,268
Cogent Nominees Limited 14,493,930
National Nominees New Zealand Limited 13,193,541
Robert William Bentley Morrison & Andrew Stewart
& Anthony Howard 11,748,820
BNP Paribas Nominees NZ Limited 11,386,872
New Zealand Depository Nominee 8,630,299
New Zealand Superannuation Fund Nominees
Limited 8,480,666
Premier Nominees Limited 8,220,701
Custodial Services Limited 6,315,800
Custodial Services Limited 6,095,255
Investment Custodial Services Limited 4,170,845
Spread of shareholders
as at 31 March 2020
Number
of shares*659,678,837
Number
of holders
Total
shares held %
1-1,000 2,729 1,428,934 0.2
1,001-5,000 7,118 19,597,364 3.0
5,001-10,000 3,636 26,272,067 4.0
10,001-50,000 4,225 85,597,118 12.9
50,001-100,000 413 28,426,700 4.3
100,001 and
Over 239 498,356,654 75.6
Total 18,359 659,678,837 100.0
* 303 shareholders hold less than a marketable parcel of Infratil shares
Twenty largest infrastructure bondholders
as at 31 March 2020
JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 173,096,913
Forsyth Barr Custodians 161,145,338
FNZ Custodians Limited 110,687,978
New Zealand Central Securities 52,633,625
Investment Custodial Services 38,501,105
Custodial Services Limited 38,158,333
Custodial Services Limited 38,003,016
Custodial Services Limited 29,149,818
Lynette Therese Erceg & Darryl Edward Gregory
& Catherine Agnes Quinn 24,120,000
Custodial Services Limited 14,496,990
Forsyth Barr Custodians 9,413,000
Custodial Services Limited 7,026,500
Rgtkmt Investments Limited 6,250,000
Custodial Services Limited 5,289,000
FNZ Custodians Limited 5,196,500
Sterling Holdings Limited 5,130,000
Tappenden Holdings Limited 3,770,000
FNZ Custodians Limited 2,767,930
JBWERE (NZ) Nominees Limited 2,630,000
Garth Barfoot 2,500,000
Spread of infrastructure bondholders
as at 31 March 2020
Number
of Bonds
Number
of holders
Total
bonds held %
1-1,000 5 4,373 -
1,001-5,000 1,266 6,292,194 0.5
5,001-10,000 3,363 32,342,784 2.5
10,001-50,000 8,636 245,452,601 18.8
50,001-100,000 1,406 115,220,657 8.8
100,001 and
Over 810 904,506,916 69.4
Total 15,486 1,303,819,525 100.0
Right thread for investment strategies :)
Kiora have a look here ..This weeks' John Mauldin Thoughts from the Front Line just about summarizes what this Investment Strategies and Secular Bear Markets Thread is all about. As you read this article remember that the current Wall St Market is in a Secular Bear Market Cycle and has been since the year 2000..Yes this secular bear is 20 years old..
John Mauldin's article shows the possible risks of investing for the long term from now on using the Secular models (charts). His quote (ambiguously mentioned within his Tech sector paragraph) "...At the very least, now looks like a terrible time to buy stocks if your intent is to hold them a long time...."
Another Mauldin's quote which Winner 69 has been mentioning on ST for a while now...
".. The current level of P/E is very high, which portends a decade that will likely deliver low compounded returns...."
Enjoy the read
I have a feeling Crestmont Research updates yesterday prompted John Mauldin to publish this article..From past commentaries it seems to me John has high regard for Ed Easterling's work.
This Investing strategies and Secular Bear Markets thread revolves around much of Ed Easterlings work.
Seriously!!! ..We have been in a Secular Bear Market for 20 years !!!!..Look around we have been in a Bull Market these last 10 years !!!
Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles
Thanks Hoops, so all schools of thought agree that we are, and have been in a secular bear market due to the high P/E, well above the historical average, and not the bull market which I thought we were in. An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality...
Do you think that the more the P/E increases above it's historical av, the more likely that stocks are becoming seriously overvalued, and may need a sharp correction, or is a high P/E the new normal?
".... An interesting philosophy that maybe is a little disconnected from reality..."
No No not at all, its very much connected to reality. PE Ratio values are determined by investor behaviour. Reality dictates the cycles and the trends record the changes.
Us Investors are focused on Cyclical cycle investing, so our investment brains are conditioned to cyclical cycle investing.We (de)invest accordingly often dismissing Stockmarket Theory to the stuffy Academics..
Secular Cycle doesn't have events, it has periods....Our Investor brains are not conditioned to Secular cycle investing..Secular market cycles are driven by annualised PE(10) trends (inflation adjusted). Secular cycles relate much better with Stock Market Theory... PE is governed by investor behaviour so with secular cycles the behavior could be generational. Remember your grandparents telling you it pays to save before you buy something so not to have debt...Nowadays anyone will tell you it pays to borrow to buy something,,In a decade or two it will pay to save before you buy again...This is an example of a Behavioural Secular Cycle..
The Stock Market Secular cycle is similar behaviour..A Secular Bear sees increasing conservative investing behaviour and investors wanting less risk and more bang for their buck..This sees a slow down trending of the Annualised PE(10) Ratio.
A Secular Bull cycle sees a slow generational change from low risk conservation to increasing speculative risk taking liberal attitudes and an upward trend of annualised PE Ratio values..
Yes we have seen rising PE Ratio values for a number of years now but on a secular level the overall annualised PE value is down trending starting PE(10) of 47 from the huge 2000 Dot-Com bubble to the now PE(10) of 30 (Secular Bear Cycle)...
Thanks Hoop
The last 10 years.Wow,what a great time to be invested in the SM
Next 10 years agh???
Watching out for inflation
Investments spread over other asset classes a bit of a hedge I hope.(These other asset classes have seen pretty poor returns over last 10 years due in most part to low inflation but also investment behavior I would assume)
Ah ha, got it.
Great explanation, actually understood it! Gives me a better understanding of a bigger picture that I was only dimly aware of. I've got a couple of new things to think about now, helps with the "why".
And as a bonus, I can "entertain" people at parties with my new found knowledge...secular, interesting word...did you know... :)
Alice's Adventures in Equilibrium by John Hussman
Quote: ".....Presently, every one of these deciles is at the most extreme level in history (unlike the 2000 peak, when there was far more dispersion across valuations). This is breathtaking, and I don’t expect it to end well...."
A huge educational read...I have a lot of respect for John even though his fund investment under-performed for a while due to investing in "theory" rather than the crazy world of "practice"..As with other Fundamental Gurus there is a media perception that John is a "perma-bear"
John's fundamental orientation is the basis of his article and skimming through it is very scary....My god look at the size of the Equity Bubble...it is enormous and it's still inflating...
Personally it seems we have slowly moved away from the "real" world and have been happy & content to slide down the rabbit hole into Wonderland where our investment needs are satisfied in the most strangest of ways...
Times up for me to stop typing, and go to lunch ..What a great day, there's a table with a few inhabitants sitting around it..and there's the Mad Hatter....he brews a good cup of Tea.....nice.:)
Interesting lecture - thanks for sharing.
Good to know, however that John has as well only some understanding (well, more than me) about a quite small part of a very complex system following chaos theory.
What he - I think - does not want to see is that human history is not driven by the reality (the small bit of the system I was talking about) he is describing, but by the "incoherent mental formations" he mentioned.
Large parts of human history have been driven by religions and religious conflicts and by ideas and stories about nationhood. Many security prices are driven by stories, and more often than not these stories have no link into reality. Markets don't assess securities according to their earnings potential, but according to their value in a story the individual buyer likes or believes.
A kilogram of gold does not earn me a cent of earnings over time (unless i sell it), and still it has long term a growing price. A Bitcoin does not even look good and has no earnings potential, and it still might have a higher value than the gold I can at least touch. Gold is as well a good example to show that this incoherent value does not necessarily disappear over time.
I think this is the problem of all analysts - we can argue about valuing securities until the cows come home, but what really matters is what another irrational individual is prepared to pay for it. Impossible to predict.
I understand that at Martin Luther's times rich roman catholic individuals paid huge sums of money to receive so called indulgence letters issued by the holy church, promising them forgiveness of their sins for paying money. Just another sort of security supposed to make sure they have a pleasant afterlife and sit close to the creator at the dining table. Would people be these days as stupid? Of course, they are - they are still happy to pay huge amounts of money for something which is - in a system of coherent thinking - absolutely worthless and senseless: Cryptocurrencies, unrealistic valued growth shares, anything where markets pay for a story not linked into reality - and yes, some are still paying money to lying preachers as well.
Johns problem is that he wants to bring everything back to the coherent rules ... and considers the reminder as anomality. It is not. Humans are not made for rationality and happy to value senseless lies. Nobody though found yet a method to predict the irrational valueing behaviour.
Value based on incoherent thinking is not following any coherent rules - which means that nobody is able to predict the future of markets or, to be more specific - the future price of securities. Oops, didn't Ben Graham tell us already that nobody can predict them ... I think this is true not just for an individual security, but as well for the sum of all securities (the market).
I think that John's view of what is going to happen is as good as anybody else's view, but still - a good reminder that the next crash might come (I am sure, it will) - and that it might be the big one (well, for our life times, anyway).
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Great post Black Peter...your first one not the second one ;);). Yeah I nearly doubled up on my post too thinking it hadn't gone through..
Amazing post. Interesting that Michael Burry posted the same thing as Hussman just today. https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/st...03383589060618
Mr Burry is still short on Tesla (and by a LARGE margin) - wonder when he will cover his position or will he end up like these hedge funds sensationalists such as Bill Ackman's (his massive loss in Herbalife) ?
Buffet appears to be doing far better than these jolos.
Burry doubling down https://twitter.com/michaeljburry/st...02913318178816
Hey Hoops, did you see Crestmont’s latest update
Ed’s stuff is interesting. Secular stuff is intriguing …secular trends remain.
Still in secular bear market he says
A couple of quotes from his email:
The current market environment can be summed up in two words: incongruity and divergence
However, the endurance, persistence, and general consistency of reported EPS over several years calls into question whether the normalized measures are no longer relevant. It could be that This Time is Different... {the finger ache from typing those four words lasted for days}
Either way, the next few years for the markets are unlikely to be boring.
With so much incongruity and divergence, it's a good time to diversify risk in this environment, not simply to diversify asset classes.
https://www.crestmontresearch.com/