Couta's valuation $3.83, Snoopy's $3.82, now that's never happened before, obviously I agree with the dog on this one.
Couta's valuation $3.83, Snoopy's $3.82, now that's never happened before, obviously I agree with the dog on this one.
Before I forget, there was a mention in the presentation of a small future dilution in earnings.
Turners are aware that one of the keys to the success of MTF is that the users of the service are also the shareholders. This is the thinking behind the idea of issuing TRA shares to dealers and brokers. Shareholders tend to be loyal users. The shares to be issued are nevertheless expected to be less than 0.1% (less than 100,000 in total) of the shares already on issue.
SNOOPY
I hope you gurus that all come up with $3.80 to $4.00 are right on the button even though the bible says $3.32
http://www.4-traders.com/TURNERS-AUT...944/consensus/
My faith in you guys remains strong though
Until we see how many note holders convert their notes to shares, or take cash, it is hard to figure out eps without knowing the number of shares that will be on issue.A number of people who own notes,are not natural share investors.
Current shares on issue are 84,802,612.The bond issue is $26mil.
Very rough figures on 50% conversion is 4,062,500 new shares, giving new total on issue 88.865,112.
On 75% conversion is 6,093,750, giving new total on issue 90,996,362.
What would work in shareholders favour is just 25% convert to shares,giving total number of shares on issue 86,833,868 ..
Currently 4-traders are showing eps in 2019 to be 28.6 cps.
I am near them with 28.91cps with 75% conversion,and well ahead of them with 29.67 on 50% conversion,and even further ahead on 30.6 on only 25% conversion..
So eps growth of either 5% or 7.8% or 11.1%..Very positive is 4-traders year on year increase in dividend per share of over 6% per year for the next three years.
What I, and the analysts covering Turners, have not factored in are any property development profits.These could add another 10% to 20% to TRA's net profit each year for the next few years.
Very large developments in both Auckland and ChCh are forecast by Turners.
At the Christchurch presentation we were told that one big bond holder is definitely not converting their bonds to shares. We weren't told who it was though! In light of that, Aaron Saunders mentioned some likely conversion rates. However, I can't remember what he said specifically :-(
SNOOPY
P.S. I should add that most of the previous new capital raised at bond maturity was used as 'base capital', because of which it became possible to increase the loan book. But some was set aside for property development. I expect the expanded loan book in the future will make up for any initial eps dilution that happens on bond conversion date.
Yes a bit vague on timing of new bigger non -convertible bond issue, to be announced before present one expires/converts,where existing bond holders can roll over.Interest rate a lot lower than present issue.
Conversion rate,was 75% with last issue.... Aaron said they expect 50% to 80% to convert bonds to shares this time.
At the Auckland meeting they gave the clear impression the new issue is unlikely to contain a conversion element to it and is unlikely to happen until a couple / few months after conversion of the old issue. I think people will face the choice of cash back or shares at 5% discount to vwap with no right or preference to the new bond issue. I'll be converting my modest stake in the bonds to shares. When this happens Turners will comprise ~ 10% of my portfolio and I have no plans to raise my stake beyond that level.