Originally Posted by
myles
Take some of your points, but I think the graph is a good indicator based on what Harmoney expect/model. (Interest rate is yearly as is default rate, per loan or across all loans). I'd like to know what the average actual loan length is for 36 and 60mth loans.
If there were a sudden increase in job losses then this would effect default rates across all risk grades, potentially high income earners could be effected more (e.g. IT workers in the past).
There is a bit of data out there of what happened with Lending Club in and around 2008, p2p in general fared very well.
My Risk Grades graph is looking more like yours already, and suspect that's about where it will end up. B5 are just to good to pass up and I really need to be across a fair set of ranges to keep up with the turnover.
What are your thoughts on what would happen to p2p lending if the Housing market took a big hit (lots of noise in Australia at the moment that his might be close, maybe not a tank, but a significant slow drop)? Could it happen here, it would hurt an awful lot of NZ'ers?