Patient Panda...thankyou...outstanding wisdom indeed.
Printable View
Patient Panda...thankyou...outstanding wisdom indeed.
property prices dropped again in jan in syd , mel looked forward to see how the aus village operators are handling this
fwiw Aveo Group (AOG.ASX) has just announced their HY result and it's not pretty https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1132236/
I think the headwind in the OZ property market is way stronger than over here so I have sold all my remaining RYM shares at $11 last week.
Absolutely. Better to invest in retirement places where people need to pay less to buy in and have less discretion over their decision (needs based vs nice to have).
People buy into a Ryman unit with the view "why not afford this luxury if they can"? However - if they can't (e.g. due to a drop in property prices, they can wait.
People who become dependant on care can't wait ... they would buy into an OCA care suite because they need the care - they don't have the luxury to wait.
^^^^ This.
Things are really ugly in Australia. The pace of declines in Melbourne and Sydney is accelerating as we headed into early 2019 with prices down 1.3% (annual rate 15.6%) in January 2019 much faster than monthly declines in late 2018. RYM a SELL in my view.
At the half year result (to Sept 30) Ryman said house prices in Melbourne would have to fall 38% in the respective areas that Ryman is selling a 2 bedroom independant unit in, before a purchaser would not realize and surplus cash in the transaction. For a serviced unit (needs based) the drop would to be greater than 50%. (see Ryman presentation slide 38). In addition, RYM are sitting on a total $215m of unconditional pre sales but not yet booked to P & L. At this stage units built and for sale in Melbourne is a very small proportion of total stock. Auckland house prices are steady, and provincial NZ prices have gone up in the last year (Hawkes Bay for instance - see stuff article this morning). Ryman have experienced house price deflation (GFC) before and the net result was a slow down in the rate of their underlying profit increase to 5% (2009), but still a record result. At $14 Ryman's share price was I think well ahead of results. At <$11 share price, moderate house price deflation v increasing demand from a growing demographic, share price value is more debatable.
Underlying PE at $11 is still in the early 20's which in my opinion is too high for their slowing underlying growth rate for this part of the housing cycle.
Forward PE of ~ 23 for RYM, ~ 15 for SUM ~14 for ARV or ~ 11 for OCA...you pays your money and takes your chances.
I've always been a value guy so will stick with what I know works for me.
NZSA retail shareholders presentation at "the Papanui" in Christchurch: Ryman Healthcare is one of the presenters:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post749287
As per link - if you want to join the dinner after the presentations, please RSVP by March 8th.
Ryman scaling back its proposed Mt Eliza village in Victoria.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12209893
It's a great location and will be a shame if it can't be properly utilised.
Might be a stupid question but if Ryman see a significant amount of growth in Australia in the years ahead, why not dual list here and the ASX? Wouldnt that get more eyes on the company? I really don't know if the compliance cost is exorbitant and therefore prohibitive? I'd say making an NZ company more Australian would only help in the West island?
Down 3.8% today, retirement sector unloved atm with more to come with this winters "winter of discontent " !!