Hey guys , do any of you think the NZ$ will head higher against US$ or will it bounce of long term resistance? , any moves higher carn`t be good for the economy.
snow
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Hey guys , do any of you think the NZ$ will head higher against US$ or will it bounce of long term resistance? , any moves higher carn`t be good for the economy.
snow
well i think its pretty obvious that the US has structural issues that will affect its currency , and that the general trend is for its currency to continue to weaken against most of its trading partners.
That said, there has been a large adjustment already and i think from here on it will be a more volatile path.
and in support of my previous question re reserve currency
From the news
" The fact the Eur/Usd trend is prompting some changes in investment decisions is likely to secure the longer term footing for Euro bulls, with Sth Korea's finmin today mulling altering the foreign ccy denominated bond issuances for 2005 to Euros from Dollars. This is significant and underscores the fears that foreign Authorities do not want to hold Dlr assets, with the change to Euros suggesting Sth Korea favour holding the Single ccy."
.. however, within such a circumstance, who is brave enough to 'pick the winner'? when by definition the argument is saying there is emerging, or possibly will be, a replacement for the appalling badly managed global reserve currency, and it's still paper, backed only by the promises of ursury, hubris, avarice, greed and malice against the underpinning debtors (tax payers et al).
To think the Euro will win this battle is outstandingly naieve given it's dubious birth lineage and unashamed support for the continuation of fundamentally flawed fiat currencies --- none of which have EVER survived the test of time. None.
So --when-- the USD goes, who's prepared to bet on the Euro to replace it. Not I. There's seriously better choices; Gold, (& Silver) -in standard weights and measures-; or maybe the Dinar; or ... or ... or ...
It is inconceiveable that the USD can sustain this obscene exportation of monetary inflation for much longer. We observe now the battle lines being drawn for competitive currency debasement; the second fundamental of a generational super-cycle Gold bull.
JMHO of course, keen to hear yours
I have to admit it, I am in love - with Butterflies
Heres the result of a recent Butterfly on the Eur.Usd. (Max 865 pips).
Not bad for a little flutter!
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/atta...022505_378.gif
Well done arco,for trading it did a nice double bottom just before the last hourly,see if it can get through 273ish for a long or if it's ress and short off it,JPY and CHF are going the other way as usual.
Cheers
Miner
A bearish Gartley is in the wings but Medium/Long term systems
have not triggered their trailing stop yet.
Seed Wave targets have been met, so top pickers may be
looking btw 3428, 3489 and 3550 as possible reversal areas.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/031205.gif
Short entered on 21/4 at 3104......
Looking Ok and currently +115 pips.
http://forum.tacticaltrader.com/attachments/042605.gif
Interesting EW count using Neely's rules
(from the EW forum).
http://www.karoll.net/images/forex/18042005mte.GIF
Arco,
I thought I recognised the chart!!
This interpretation also appears on Fxstreet, posted by Karoll Inc on 18th April.
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/...hnicalanalysis
I have monitored him in the past (when he posted daily on FXstreet) and found his recommendations wanting quite frankly.
There may be something in it though, see another EW post today which calls for a low around 1.2940ish then back up above 1.31ish in further sideways consolidation.
http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/...menu=forecasts
With you on the sell EUR - shorted Friday at 1.3088, bght back last night at 1.2964 under one of the signal systems I follow.
Looking to resell early/mid 1.30's tonight if seen - own view.
regards
Xerof
Xerof
Still short EUR + 113.....not much movement overnight
I think the guy behind Karoll is Dimo
Dimov who at one time posted on the EW
Forum under the member name Dimo.
I have not followed his picks so cannot
comment on the quality of his work,
although I understand he uses Neely's rules
for wave counts from the book....
Mastering Elliot Wave: Presenting the Neely Method: The First Scientific, Objective Approach to Market Forecasting with the Elliott Wave Theory.
arco
Euro has moved through a possible support level
at 2940 and is now showing +206 pips.
Expecting a little rest here around 2879 while
it tests the change of polarity circa 2940.
looking more and more like a reasonable hold for the medium term Arco - 1.2770 first target, then circa 1.22?
Hope I haven't put the commentators curse on it !
Xerof
There are multiple targets but IMO next main support
could be circa 2695. Minor support perhaps around 2817,
with Fibonacchi projections as low as 2207 at the moment.
What I really like is the oscillator which is negative zero.
(It may be possible we see a test of polarity on that).
arco
Stopped out at +147 pips.
As I mentioned earlier
"It may be possible we see a test of polarity on that".
.........which appears to be the case.
Will remain flat for the time being.
Got that one right:)
Shorted at 1.2954 (could have been better)
currently 1.2869, 170 pips
Slam
slam u brought 2 contracts?
85 pips x 2 = 170?
Hi Dazza
Yep sorry 2 contracts at that price[:I]
Got a bit excited there.
Also brought 2 more at 1.2930, and another 2 at 1.2919.
Got a tight stop on all 6 until I see what happens around 1.2780
If it goes through that resistance ok, may head south to circa 1.22? as the other guys have said.
Cheers
Slam
Arco, sorry about the commentators curse:(:( - shall refrain in future;)
Xerof
No problem Xerof......
a profit is a profit....always a chance
to board the next train south.
arco