Yes and you would also produce returns that would put you in a class among the very best investors in the world.
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Housing supply/demand dynamics skewed towards over-supply in 2023.
House prices to fall further, according to Kiwibank economists.
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...-slow-recovery
obviously im talking in a perfect world just like you were. As in your perfect example you forget to mention a flat yr or 2 of say no div's ( highly possible ) would signicantly effect the return at the end of your time frame. just like a loss in my trading example would effect my end result
I do not think that OCA reaching $2 by 2040 is me talking a perfect world. It is almost impossible to imagine such a situation, nobody in their right minds thinks that it would take until 2040 to reach $2. The entire point of my post was that under a scenario that would make most people vomit their breakfast, you could still do very well.
2 years of no dividend would make very very little difference to my scenario, but a couple of bad trades will make a big difference.
Tony Alexander says house prices will start increasing soon ….maybe even +10% in 2023
That should help OCA’s coffers
Meanwhile, house prices continue to drop with no signs of stabilising.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/home-v...7FXWWZ22DP7NY/
As an aside, I was talking to one real estate agent trying to pre-sell some developments in South Auckland for developers. Not one single serious inquiry in 2 months despite the developers dropping their prices from $950,000 to $850,000.
A year ago, he would have pre-sold the whole lot in a weekend but he now has the additional job/problem of trying to find secondary buyers for the pre-sold units from the last year!
FOMO has truly been replaced by FOPTM. :eek2:
its getting bad in aus to. i know oca dont have anything going on there but others in sector do
Since peaking in March 2021, dwelling approvals have fallen by 29 per cent as of the latest data for June this year. After hitting an all-time record high in June 2021, dwelling commencements are following approvals down, falling 27.5 per cent as of the March quarter.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...75a11ff0e69c31